[pranavshet]

Respected Members,

Now that every Govt, whether it is the Central or State, is pushing for electric mobility, a thought crept into my mind: what implications would it have on the biggest blockbuster scooter brand in 2-wheeler space: Honda Activa? It contributes to nearly 65% of HMSI's domestic sales in India.

Let's start with the Activa first. I'm an owner of the Activa 125, 2015 model and have clocked around 65000 kms.

Maintaining an Activa is not cheap. Its FE is nothing to write home about. Many electric scooters of good quality say iQube or Ather give a far better performance & are very economical in comparison. Activa was a pioneer when it was introduced. Honda disrupted the market in the year 2001. But in 2023, they are on the verge of getting disrupted.

My reasons:

- An average Activa rider (male / female) commutes daily on that scooter for distances not exceeding 60kms. Anything above would be simply detrimental to health

- The USP was that it was ultra-reliable back then & relatively fuel-efficient when compared to other scooters. People did not have choices which could compete with Activa on that footing. It got a head start

- Now in the year 2023, with soaring fuel prices, riding the Activa is no longer economical. I have to shell out around INR 100 per day for a commute of 40 km. The cost of servicing Activa is also expensive. Here is where the e-scooters from reputed rivals pose a challenge to the survival of Activa. Not only do they offer silent rides, and more efficiency they also provide better performance

- However unreliable OLA scooters may be, they have managed to scale up to 30k units a month. The specs of their scooters are just right. Only their execution is horrendous. Their service people are not even equipped to handle the issues. That is a company-specific issue. If one goes to see, there are not many components that need to be serviced on electric scooters as opposed to ICE scooters. The only thing that is critical for a reliable electric scooter is a good electric motor and a good battery management system with excellent thermal efficiency and good software support

Last month TVS & even Bajaj managed to catch up with Ola. TVS has only one variant and it is clocking around 20k units of iQube. The ST version of iQube is not even rolled out. I seriously don’t know what TVS is smoking on that front. In 2024 TVS will be introducing a high-powered e-scooter rival to Ather. Even though Ather is not clocking high numbers, their scooter is the best scooter one can buy. The performance & quality of that product is top notch. They have indicated that they will be introducing a family scooter in 2024. That would add to their volumes further. Bajaj is never a volume player. It will give a product that will have its niche. That’s exactly what e-chetak has managed to do up until now.

I might not be surprised to see the volumes of Honda Activa falling below a lakh per month from the current 2.3 lakhs a month. It looks like Honda is in for a rude shock for its beloved Activa.

Guys would like to know your thoughts on the same. Until then Ride safe.

Warm Regards
Pranav

[Rajeevraj]

I don't think there is any immediate risk to the Activa. As you have mentioned, even today it is not the best ICE scooter out there. There are many competent scooters across brands. Even then the Activa comfortable clocks 200,000 units per month. More than double the next competitor.

The Activa and the Splendor have managed some sort of a deep connect with the Indian customers. That is why although there maybe better products out there today- These two manage that mind boggling numbers due to that hold they have on the customer. Very few models/manufacturers can dream of this.

While the EV revolution in the 2 wheeler space will continue to happen- I think it will first slay a lot of other scooters before even touching the Activa. So Honda will have time to take appropriate action. Having said that, I think they are the only major scooter manufacturer with no EV Scooter on sale or on roadmap.

[am1m]

I think the sales speak for themselves. It's the largest selling scooter by far and the second most selling 2-wheeler in this market. Buying preferences change slowly and e-bike adoption, while certainly picking up, is going to take some more time. Eventually there will be an electric version, I'm sure. But I think it's too early to say "uncertain" or "tough times ahead". (And I really don't like the Activa! But the numbers speak for themselves.) Of course Honda can't take things for granted. Remember Nokia.

[sreejithkk]

With FAME subsidies already reduced, the EVs are significantly pricier than ICE scooters. And if the FMAE subsidy is completely removed, which may happen in near future, these electric scooter will become even more pricier. And availability of service centers/spares will still attract masses towards Activa. So I do not think that Activa will phase out that easily at least in next 3-5 years. And if the rumors are to be believed, Honda may launch their own EV scooter may be in an year.

[Nikhildrao]

Originally Posted by sreejithkk

With FAME subsidies already reduced, the EVs are significantly pricier than ICE scooters. And if the FMAE subsidy is completely removed, which may happen in near future, these electric scooter will become even more pricier. And availability of service centers/spares will still attract masses towards Activa. So I do not think that Activa will phase out that easily at least in next 3-5 years. And if the rumors are to be believed, Honda may launch their own EV scooter may be in an year.

FAME subsidy is getting renewed for 5 more years. Ola S1X+ is 89999 ex-showroom right now , it's only a matter of time before the Activa will start feeling the heat. The lithium deposits are being surveyed for prospective minimum purposes and the price of lithium is falling rapidly. This is a perfect storm for 2 wheeler EVs to rise above the rest and take it's place as the logical short distance travel vehicle of choice in the urban jungle. I will go on a limb here and say that activa will half it's sales within in the next 5 years.

[Shreyans_Jain]

I believe Activa as well as Splendor are due for their Kodak or Nokia moment. It is only a matter of time that someone upends these legacy products. The premise of these vehicles has always been economical commuting. Unfortunately, they neither cheap to buy nor cheap to run anymore. There is no way a petrol scooter or motorcycle can come close to the running costs as well as the performance offered by electric drive. The delta in terms of purchase price is really not much and will only reduce in future. On the other hand, EV scooters are only getting better and more well rounded.

[anjan_c2007]

The predictions in the OP and are too futuristic. Yes, fully agree with what is said but this prediction may turn fact, but only by the 2030's. The Activa, Jupiter, Pleasure and Access and all their siblings would feel the heat. They are all in the same boat and only the Activa can't be singled out. Till then it's comfortable sailing for this boat of destiny carrying all these together.

We had the Bajaj Super, Chetak, Bravo and Stride meet the same fate post the turn of the millenium, with the Vijai family perishing earlier in the 1990's and Lamby in the late 1980's. The Bajaj rage obliterated Lamby and Vijais and the Activa rage obliterated the Bajajs ( plus the BS II, III upgradations).

Hence, if Activa and the boat family doesn't toe to the market demands they would perish.

Like former Ford CEO, Alan Mullaly (2006 onwards) who turned around the sinking Ford Motors had said :-

"make cars which the people like, not what the company likes."

[Hrishi_111]

Being an Activa and an Ather owner, I do feel that the Activa is rudimentary as compared to Ather (or even with some of the new age ICE scooters).

However, from years of experience I can also confidently claim that no other scooter would last as longer as Activa. Ours is 12 years old and still works like a charm! I don’t think the current generation of EV would survive such a long life with reliable performance.

Today, the price of Activa might be almost same as the entry level EVs, however its life expectancy is at least double of it. For an average customer, this matters a lot (if not most).

[aargee]

This is the sales of all scooters in 2023 for last 10 months representing entire scooter market including EV & Petrol put together. Out of all the scooter sales, 40% is alone owned by Activa. They're selling about 1.87 Lakh scooters month after month {perhaps 2% more by Dio & Grazia averaging 2.06 Lakhs per month}. The second highest sales being entire range of TVS scooters {yes, entire EV & Petrol scooters sold by TVS} averaging at 1.17 Lakhs scooters a month & that's 25%

Unless there's a Maggi incident on Activa, there's no signs of foundational shake for HMSI!!

Originally Posted by pranavshet

Now in the year 2023, with soaring fuel prices, riding the Activa is no longer economical. I have to shell out around INR 100 per day for a commute of 40 km

Conservatively speaking, an average distance of 18 Km per day {for all 365 days} an EV scooter makes ROI in about 2.5-3 years & is THE MOST preferred mode of transportation to stay economical

Originally Posted by pranavshet

Last month TVS & even Bajaj managed to catch up with Ola

Chetak is steadily climbing & iQube has proven itself very well, combined with the reliability issues with Ola

Originally Posted by pranavshet

In 2024 TVS will be introducing a high-powered e-scooter rival to Ather

If you mean X, then it's already retailing at astronomical pricing!! But looks awesome

[Newtown]

A Hybrid Activa would do wonders. Swappable battery, and the possibility of gasoline only should the need arise.

[RoadToHappiness]

I trust that Honda will introduce the eActiva when they think it will be the inflection point from ICE to electric in their product portfolio. Basically. Activa will never be dead.

"The king is dead. Long live the king!"

[Mortis]

The Activa is not going to go away anytime soon for the simple reason that the majority of buyers won't be able to charge their Electric scooter at home.

[ghodlur]

I own an Activa bought in 2010 and personally was not happy with the purchase since it was better half's insistence to buy one. I was veering more towards Suzuki Access at that point of time. Although the ownership of the scooter has been a trouble free one till date with min maintenance and maximum utilization for the daily errand runs, I still feel the Activa could have been a far better product atleast with the fork suspensions in the front, fuel filling option outside the storage area, digital odometer etc. It was bound to happen for the Activa to be left behind in the current surge of EV scooters coz Honda did not want to adapt to the changing environments, same happened to their 4 wheeler market too.

Would I buy an Activa now in its present avatar? Hell no. I have lot many options around and with dependency less on the petrol fuel for the daily commute, EV is the way ahead. But Home minister is not letting go the Activa as she feels this is the best thing available around.

[ssoni.1411]

I feel the Activa is not going to go anywhere anytime soon. EVs, although cost efficient, are not as reliable as an Activa. Until the EV manufacturers setup proper service centres and parts availability, Activa and in fact even other ICE scooters are going to be there.
I own a 12 year old Activa and all it requires is two normal services a year.
EV scooters will not be able to live such a long and reliable life, plus the resale value of Activa is better and you can always get it checked and repaired at any local mechanic.

[deep_bang]

It's not about Activa vs EV.
It's just about when Honda comes with Activa EV and just convert the 40% Activa share into 40% Activa EV share.

Right now, Ola/TVs/Ather are having a small market share, but the moment Activa comes with its EV a significant Activa owners will just pivot to the new Activa EV.