[KiloAlpha]

INTRODUCTION
If you have a mainstream 110-125cc petrol powered scooter (e.g. Honda Activa, Suzuki Access, TVS Jupiter, etc.), your scooter is just over 5 years old, and the upgrade itch begins, should you buy another petrol scooter, or should you go electric to save your wallet and/or the planet? Maxi scooters like Yamaha Aerox and Aprilia SXR160 are tempting, as are stylish electric torque monsters like the Ather 450X. Or, maybe you could be totally sensible and buy another new mainstream 125cc scooter.

I am in the same situation. I have a 2014 TVS Wego in (touch wood) excellent condition. I got the upgrade itch. Then, I saw this video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L2IKCdnzl5k

and I took a deep breath, and started thinking about it a fresh perspective.

Do you really need to scratch that upgrade itch at all? Alright, yes, granted that the running costs of an electric scooter are very low when compared to that of a petrol one. Yes, the torque can be addictive and exhilerating - correction, it is addictive and exhilerating. Setting aside the emotional arguments for an upgrade, are the numbers on your side? It has to make sense both from a financial and environmental stand point, over the entire lifetime of the vehicle. If we can agree that exchanging your existing petrol scooter for a new one makes very little sense financially and no sense at all environmentally, the question we are addressing is whether one should buy a new electric scooter or just keep the old one.
*drumroll*
Enter the Excel Spreadsheet.

No, no, no, please, don't fall asleep yet. I promise, this is going to get interesting.

Lets first get a few facts straight. From an environmental perspective, electric vehicles are not really 'zero emissions'. It takes a lot of resources (consequently emissions) to build a new vehicle. Lithium-Ion battery manufacturing is known to be a very polluting process and has a huge impact on the environment. Electricity generated from fossil fuels (e.g. coal) is also bad for the environment - the very same electricity used to charge the battery. Also, when you choose to buy a new thing, you are causing its manufacture and hence the resultant pollution. Continuing to use what you already have can sometimes be better for the environment.

THE NUMBERS
Here are the basic facts on the basis of which I have done my analysis (spreadsheet is attached, and all sources are listed in the end):

• 5 tons of CO2 is emitted just manufacturing the electric scooter & battery. I am assuming the battery will not need to be replaced for the next 8 years.
• Electricity generation, transmission & distribution emits 1.2kg CO2 per kWh, assuming a coal heavy fuel mix
• Petrol scooter emits 50g/km CO2. Oil extraction, refining, and distribution adds 125gm/km CO2 (@36kmpl mileage), making total tailpipe emissions 175g/km
• Electric scooter has a typical range of 70km
• Electricity costs Rs 8.15/kWh (highest domestic tariff in Bangalore), and petrol is Rs. 101/litre
• Maintenance cost for petrol scooter will be Rs 4000/year, but only Rs 500/year for electric scooter.

I have not taken insurance and tyres into account in my model, assuming that they will be the same for both overall so in a comparative study they will cancel out.

I used my own example and crunched the numbers. Turns out, it will be better for both my wallet and environment to just continue to use my Wego until it dies! Scooter is used 11km/day, mileage 36kmpl. My planning horizon is 8 years.
Lifetime CO2 emissions overall for petrol scooter is 5.6 tons, and for electric scooter will be 6.6 tons. Total lifetime cost of ownership for petrol scooter, even accounting for increased maintenance as it ages, will be 1.22 lakhs, and for electric scooter will be 1.6 lakhs.

So when does it make sense to buy an electric scooter?
Usage: If daily usage rises 14km, the lifetime emissions of petrol scooter and electric scooter become the same. Any more than 14km/day of running, it makes environmental sense to buy an electric scooter. And at about 16.5km per day of usage, the lifetime costs of petrol and electric scooters become equal, so anything more than daily usage of 17km, the electric scooter is better for both the environment and the wallet.

BOTTOM LINE
If your 2-wheeler usage is low, around 10km/day, please keep your existing petrol scooter until it dies. Both the environment and your wallet will thank you. But if your usage is higher that 15km/day, seriously consider switching to electric.

DISCLAIMER
I have got most of my numbers from searching the internet, and I am not sure of their accuracy. If anyone has more authentic data, please do plug it in the attached spearsheeet and share with the community. Here are my sources:

• Motorcycle Manufacture Emissions: I used Yamaha Motor's sustainability report and their reported sales figures for 2020, and calculated per unit CO2 emissions
• Lithium-Ion Battery Manufacture Emissions: https://theicct.org/sites/default/fi...9022018_vF.pdf
• Petrol Scooter Emissions: Honda Motorcycles UK website. I used figures published for Vision 110 scooter and adjusted upwards by 15%
• Emissions from Power Generation: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life-c...energy_sources
• Supply Chain Emissions for Petrol: https://carnegieendowment.org/2016/0...hain-pub-62722

[Aditya]

Thread moved out from the Assembly Line. Thanks for sharing!

[adisan]

Thanks for sharing, this is interesting.
One question, probably a beginner's query: does emission vary with the FE of a vehicle? If the FE is higher, will the emissions be lower?

[SKC-auto]

One question though, How did you come up with 5 tons of emissions for electric scooter, Jason's video is calculating 10.4 tons for a Tesla model 3 with huge 75kwh battery, a scooter with just 3kwh (25 times less)battery should not be more than 1 ton (125kg vs 1800kg vehicle weight) in my opinion.

Electric scooter is no brainer, unless your usage is less than 5km/day where the fuel prices do not pinch your wallet much.

[KiloAlpha]

Originally Posted by SKC-auto

One question though, How did you come up with 5 tons of emissions for electric scooter ...

As I said, in my original post, I searched and searched, and none of the 2-wheeler manufacturers posted "per unit" emissions for manufacture. All of them, though, publish emissions numbers across all core business activities, i.e., manufacture-distribute-sell. I picked up Yamaha Motor's report, got the total emissions reported, divided by total reported sales, and factored it down as a Fascino requires less resources to manufacture when compared to a R1 (DUH!!).
Its the best I could do.
If you can point all of us in the direction of a more correct number, please do so, it will really help this forum.

[tilt]

Head vs. heart. Upgrades are almost exclusively heart (yes there are a few exceptions, which is why said "almost").

Per head, driving your current vehicle into the ground will always be the better option, be it emissions (overall) or cost.

Nice topic by the way

Cheers

[KiloAlpha]

Originally Posted by adisan

Thanks for sharing, this is interesting.
One question, probably a beginner's query: does emission vary with the FE of a vehicle? If the FE is higher, will the emissions be lower?

Yes, this is true, but the relationship is not necessarily linear.

[sri_tesla]

Originally Posted by KiloAlpha

THE NUMBERS
Here are the basic facts on the basis of which I have done my analysis (spreadsheet is attached, and all sources are listed in the end):

• 5 tons of CO2 is emitted just manufacturing the electric scooter & battery. I am assuming the battery will not need to be replaced for the next 8 years.
• Electricity generation, transmission & distribution emits 1.2kg CO2 per kWh, assuming a coal heavy fuel mix
• Petrol scooter emits 50g/km CO2. Oil extraction, refining, and distribution adds 125gm/km CO2 (@36kmpl mileage), making total tailpipe emissions 175g/km
• Electric scooter has a typical range of 70km
• Electricity costs Rs 8.15/kWh (highest domestic tariff in Bangalore), and petrol is Rs. 101/litre
• Maintenance cost for petrol scooter will be Rs 4000/year, but only Rs 500/year for electric scooter.

I have not taken insurance and tyres into account in my model, assuming that they will be the same for both overall so in a comparative study they will cancel out.

I used my own example and crunched the numbers. Turns out, it will be better for both my wallet and environment to just continue to use my Wego until it dies! Scooter is used 11km/day, mileage 36kmpl. My planning horizon is 8 years.
Lifetime CO2 emissions overall for petrol scooter is 5.6 tons, and for electric scooter will be 6.6 tons. Total lifetime cost of ownership for petrol scooter, even accounting for increased maintenance as it ages, will be 1.22 lakhs, and for electric scooter will be 1.6 lakhs.

How did you come up with 5 tons of CO2 emissions for manufacturing an electric scooter? What about the manufacturing emissions for petrol scooters?

The major part that is the source of higher emissions in the manufacturing of electric scooters is the battery. Other than the battery the manufacturing emissions for both petrol and electric scooters should be the same. So, in the case of electric scooters, we need to calculate manufacturing emissions for battery production.

Based on the ICCT link you posted for battery production, the latest (2017) estimate which is already 4 years old has per kWh emissions at 56kgs. So, for a typical electric scooter with a 3 kWh battery, that is 168 kgs which is 0.168 metric tons. Even if we assume batteries are made using the Chinese grid which is coal-heavy, the 3 kWh battery production emissions will be 400 kgs (0.4 tons).

So, in comparison to petrol scooters, electric scooter manufacturing will produce 400 kgs of extra emissions. Manufacturing of remaining parts like tyres, lights, engines, motors, seats, plastics should produce the same amount of emissions.

When we buy new vehicles, we generally sell our old vehicles to someone else and they will continue to use them unless it's not working anymore. I agree that if your usage is low (10 to 15 km) and have a functional petrol scooter, you can continue to use it for another 1-2 years and change to an electric one as there will be more models available in the market at that time. If you are in the market for a new scooter, then it's better to go with an electric scooter even if it's slightly costlier than petrol scooter as you will quickly recover the extra costs despite low usage due to higher fuel costs.

[aim120]

Lets not forget ICE scooters still need battery, which on average lasts 2 to 3 years. They also need two motors one for starter and other for alternator (copper winding). Not to mention oil for engine.

All the fuel from crude oil drilling, transportation to harbor, shipping that to destination country port, then going to refinery and then to bunk. In all of this locations they use electricity to pump fuel.

Where as electricity travels for free from coal plants.

[Electromotive]

No offense to OP, but I am very very tired of these BEV vs ICE environmental friendliness threads. How many of us consider the environmental impact when purchasing a vehicle or any other product? I want a poll to see what the data looks like and how high is environmental consideration in the list of priorities when purchasing a vehicle.

I know a few people who have moved to BEVs and do you know how many made the change because they wanted to reduce their ecological impact? ZERO. That's right - Zero. People are buying BEVs because they are the new trendy thing, good looking, cheaper to run and maintain and hella-fun to drive. Eco-friendly is just something to feel good and brag about but never the primary consideration when making the switch to BEVs.

[Shivam]

Nice thread and good way to do the math.
As long as we get the right numbers in place, it could be a good indicator for the future.

Meanwhile, for a new buyer, who doesn't have anything to be retired, I believe it should make absolute sense to go for electric?

[fordday]

Originally Posted by Electromotive

I know a few people who have moved to BEVs and do you know how many made the change because they wanted to reduce their ecological impact? ZERO. That's right - Zero. People are buying BEVs because they are the new trendy thing, good looking, cheaper to run and maintain and hella-fun to drive. Eco-friendly is just something to feel good and brag about but never the primary consideration when making the switch to BEVs.

Thats right. It applies to majority of cases. Tarun Mehta of Ather mentioned this long before their product was launched.

He said nobody will buy an electric vehicle for environmental concerns. They will only buy if we can match or surpass the ICE vehicle in all aspects.

[ComicCharcoal]

Manufacturing emissions of a petrol scooter (which also has a small battery) cannot be zero, can it?

[Lobogris]

Absolutely. Go for an electric scooter without hesitation. I already have a 4wheel EV. I don’t need a scooter at all. Nevertheless, I am likely to buy an electric scooter just because they are so much fun. The price is negligible. People spend that much on a nice laptop, iphone or ipad. This is something you can use for at least 5 years and it would save you money on fuel. It would help the environment a little and it would be quiet and fun to ride.

[Indraneel Bhat]

Originally Posted by KiloAlpha

Lets first get a few facts straight. From an environmental perspective, electric vehicles are not really 'zero emissions'. It takes a lot of resources (consequently emissions) to build a new vehicle. Lithium-Ion battery manufacturing is known to be a very polluting process and has a huge impact on the environment. Electricity generated from fossil fuels (e.g. coal) is also bad for the environment - the very same electricity used to charge the battery.

@KiloAplha - Brother, if we ever meet, I am going to hug you.....THANK YOU for putting up this information. I spend 10 mins trying to explain the above to everyone who talks about electric bikes like it is an utopia.....the most environment friendly 2-wheeler is a bicycle and even that has manufacturing costs.....