[CrAzY dRiVeR]

Note:

• All data has been compiled from the data presented by Auto Punditz.
• These manufacturer-reported sales numbers are factory dispatches to dealerships. They are NOT retail sales figures to end customers.
• Click any picture to open a larger higher-resolution version in a new window / tab.

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[CrAzY dRiVeR]

Thread moved out from the Assembly Line!

[tchsvy]

Royal Enfield has to bring their updated Classics and Thunderbirds as soon as possible, there is a steady decline in Classic 350 sales for the last 6 months or so. Jawa has definitely affected Classi 350's sales.

Suzuki Gixxer 250 SF is off to a great start, or may be they are display/ test ride vehicles dispatched to the showrooms, too soon to speak I guess.

[dextor]

Wondering what is up with UM Lohia. All models zero since April.

Also Yamaha R3 is zero for May? Whats cooking up...model 2019?

No info on BMW 310s ?

[sukiwa]

Royal Enfield: Six months since launch of RE 650 twins, here is graph for RE bikes with engines more than 350cc (Bullet 500, Himalayan, CL500, TB500, 650 twins).



Graph is definitely on upward scale from low of Dec'18, however still to reach peak it once experienced. I could have curtailed this graph from Oct'18 till May'19, however wanted to show peak of Mar'18 for comparison.

Has RE managed to grow this segment?: Probably not. Increase in sales of 650 twins are at expense fall in CL500. Don't know if RE anticipated it this way or not. However, it's definitely better for end-users in terms of engine technology.

[CrAzY dRiVeR]

Originally Posted by dextor

Wondering what is up with UM Lohia. All models zero since April.

UM Motorcycles operated in a niche segment where people wanted Royal Enfield like vehicles, but with a little more exclusivity.

They now have Jawa and the 650 twins to choose from! Prices of used Street 750s have also come down ever since the launch of the 650 twins.

I don't see a reason why a customer has to look at UM now. I don't get the opportunity to look at one either, as the closest dealer (Nagawara ORR, Bangalore) has even shut shop last month.

[The Great]

Originally Posted by tchsvy

Royal Enfield has to bring their updated Classics and Thunderbirds as soon as possible, there is a steady decline in Classic 350 sales for the last 6 months or so. Jawa has definitely affected Classi 350's sales.

Add to that, the 650 twins are eating away the Classic 500 and Thunderbird 500 sales too apparently.

[neil.jericho]

All of us know that the industry is going through an extended rough patch and that this has forced manufacturers to rethink their dispatches and apparently production as well. They also need to manage the pushback from dealers who are seriously concerned about sitting on too much inventory. To that, we have to add the factor of traditionally lower dispatches in December. Now how this has manifested itself in the SIAM numbers (right or wrong, who knows!) is fascinating if we assume the numbers balance out over an extended period of time. There are two ways to look at this
a. How did the manufacturer manage pre December dispatches vs post December dispatches. That way the traditional deviation of lower December dispatches isnt skewing the numbers too much one way or the other.
b. How did the manufacturer manage pre December dispatches vs December and post December dispatches. This clubs together the end of the year slowdown for a more holistic picture.

Let go through them one by one from the perspective of point a.

1. Hero
- Hero corrected its dispatches in December and since then it has found its footing.
- Hero did an average of 6,82,073 dispatches a month between May 18 - Nov 18 despite November being the a slow month.
- December 2018 saw a drop of 35.9% compared to this average.
- The Jan 2019 - May 19 average stood at 5,71,976 units.
- Keeping aside the traditional December slump and comparing the average dispatches May to Nov 18 against Jan 19 - May 19 and the drop in monthly dispatches is 16.1%.

Now if we compare the industry wide numbers for the same May to Nov 18 vs Jan - May 19, the drop is 16.3%, so no surprises there.

2. Honda
- Honda surprisingly seems to have badly misread the situation on the ground and this is reflected in their numbers.
- The May 2018 - Nov 2018 average dispatches stood at 5,06,458 units.
- December 2018 saw a drop of 39.1% compared to this average which is the worst among the biggies.
- The Jan 2019 - May 19 average stood at 3,86,845 units. The reason is the astounding drop in March 19 to 2,22,325 units. In fact TVS beat Honda in March and Bajaj was a hairs breadth away as well!
- Keeping aside the traditional December slump and comparing the average dispatches May to Nov 18 against Jan 19 - May 19 and the drop in monthly dispatches is 23.6% against the industry figure of 16.3%.
- Is the March aberration just that or is Honda losing ground to the TVS and Bajaj? Time will tell.

3. TVS
- TVS seems to have balanced out their dispatches in a much more balanced manner.
- The May 2018 - Nov 2018 average dispatches stood at 2,81,852 units.
- December 2018 saw a drop of 25.5 % compared to this average which is better than the other biggies.
- The Jan 2019 - May 19 average stood at 2,38,659 units.
- Keeping aside the traditional December slump and comparing the average dispatches May to Nov 18 against Jan 19 - May 19 and the drop in monthly dispatches is 15.3% which is better than the rest of the industry.

4. Bajaj
- Bajaj seems to have read the situation well in comparison.
- The May 2018 - Nov 2018 average dispatches stood at 2,24,747 units.
- December 2018 saw a drop of 30% compared to this average which is better than Hero and Honda.
- The Jan 2019 - May 19 average stood at 2,04,338 units.
- Keeping aside the traditional December slump and comparing the average dispatches May to Nov 18 against Jan 19 - May 19 and the drop in monthly dispatches is 9 % which is fantastic given the scale involved.

Now if we look at perspective b and include the December slump and compare the average of May to Dec 18 against Jan 19 - May 19, this is how the drops look
- Hero : 19.4%
- Honda : 26.2%
- TVS : 17%
- Bajaj : 12%
- Industry : 19.2%

[neil.jericho]

From my previous post, it is interesting to note that Bajaj and TVS seem to have been able to gauge and predict the rough waters far better than Honda and Hero. If we assume dispatches is more or less equal to sales over time, the TVS and Bajaj dealerships must be happy because they appear to be performing better than the other biggies. Obviously they aren't outselling Hero and Honda but Bajaj and TVS are able to do arrest the falls in sales figures far better than the biggies.

If we look at Honda's March mayhem, they dropped dispatches by 1,86,283 units. That's the equivalent of what Yamaha, Royal Enfield and Suzuki are doing combined in a month!

Those big drops in dispatches came from the Activa and the CB Shine which are Hero's best selling products. Lets look at them separately.
1. CB Shine
- February dispatches : 86,355
- March dispatches : 29,827
- MoM drop : 56,528
- MoM drop % : 65.46 %

2. Activa
- February dispatches : 2,05,239
- March dispatches : 1,48,241
- MoM drop : 56,998
- MoM drop % : 27.77 %

The evergreen Activa seems to have taken a big hit over the last 13 months. If we look at perspectives a and b from the post above, the picture isn't too rosy.

- Perspective a
Keeping aside the traditional December slump and comparing the average dispatches May to Nov 18 against Jan 19 - May 19 and the drop in monthly dispatches is 27.6% against the industry average of 16.3%.

- Perspective b
If we include the December slump and compare the average of May to Dec 18 against Jan 19 - May 19, the drop is monthly dispatches is 29.17% against the industry average of 19.2%.

These are huge drops indeed and must be worrying for Honda.

[pavi]

Who is right here? Our article says 1,99,225 splendors sold in May 2019, but Gaadiwadi says

The Hero Splendor found a whopping 2,80,763 buyers in May 2018 and was the largest selling 2 wheeler in the country. Last month, however, it sold 2,67,450 units as the YoY deficit stood at just over 13,000 units compared to more than 54,000 units for Activa.

Source

[CrAzY dRiVeR]

Originally Posted by pavi

Who is right here? Our article says 1,99,225 splendors sold in May 2019, but Gaadiwadi says

Thanks for pointing this out. The difference is that AutoPunditz has started reporting the split up of Splendor & Super Splendor from this month onwards. Add the two, and you will get the previous numbers as reported by Gaadiwaadi.

Also AutoPunditz seems to have corrected the charts to include XPulse 200 numbers. Updated above.