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Originally Posted by GTO Why so? |
Thread has grown pretty large enough, but with my humble little experience living a big bike dream and being in a thankful position of having many friends living their dreams - I feel that most of the replies are not really on the dot. So, here's some work to plot down whatever data we have available (Mainly thanks to Autopunditz).
* KTM 390s and RE 500s for comparison sake as many members refer to it. SIAM data does not include them.
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Originally Posted by GTO Why so? Is it because:
• The bikes from a segment below have gotten really good? Similar to how we saw C2 sedans murder D1 sedans?
• The small segment of the market that wanted big bikes already bought them?
• The 'big bike' craze has cooled down?
• No new & interesting launches?
• Any price hikes (although IIRC prices actually came down recently)?
• The pre-owned market is flooded with almost-new big bikes? |
To answer your questions (with the best of my knowledge), I would personally attribute this decline to a couple of brands and factors -
1.
Harley Davidson, as you can see from the charts - is generally on a decline, though I will not rule them out so fast. Infact, I believe they have big potential in India, as we have discussed earlier in some of the Harley global threads. A brand everyone tends to miss, and for which data is not really available easily is
Benelli - and I'm willing to bet that they have been hit really bad during the previous year. Unlike Harley, I dont see a future for this company in India, now that DSK is in a big mess of its own.
2. You are right about the bikes from the below segment getting really good - and one bike in particular is a giant killer. No points for guessing - its the
KTM Duke 390. Internationally, the 390s are viewed as a baby step to graduate to bigger and better motorcycles. However, the Duke enjoys two big factors in the Indian context - 1. That is almost a superbike in the Indian road and traffic conditions and 2. That the tax structure in India makes it a brilliant value proposition. It is certainly more bike for the money than any other bikes a segment above (All of which tend to attract big taxes for CKD / CBU assembly). This makes it difficult for the 390 owners to upgrade to a nearby segment, when they consider what less they get compared to the big money they are required to spend.
But that said, the KTM 390 and RE 500 sales have been pretty consistent during the period, and they didn't witness much of growth either to eat into superbike sales.
3. Many preowned bikes in the market as well, with very low numbers on the odo. Most of these superbikes are not at all practical in the Indian context, and most owners do very less kms a year. Not pointing fingers at anyone in particular, but a casual glance at our ownership threads clearly suggest that it is the tourer (including sports & adventure tourer) class of motorcycles that enjoys good miles and most other styles like nakeds, superbikes, cruisers etc are really not very practical for our conditions - resulting in them being used only once in a while or for very special occassions.
Fact is - Most new buyers didn't really knew what they were getting into.
Many of them "upgrade" to more sensible options from the used bike market instead of new, thus minimising their financial damage.
4. New launches or the lack of it has also contributed to the scene. As seen from the graphs - it is clear that the most aggressive company during the last year (Kawasaki) has clearly seen growth amidst this slowdown whereas the others have slipped. The growth of Kawasaki was largely driven by new launches like the Versys 650, 2017 Ninja 650, Z900, Ninja 1000, Vulcan S etc - most of them having touring orientations.
5. Effect of the price drop should help push more sales soon - but speaking of the period under consideration, most of the prices went rather skywards. The Harley Street range and Triumph Boneville range for example saw a lot of price inflation during this period - affecting sales of what is essentially their entry level bread and butter models.
Harley is offering big discounts on the Street range now (Since the Vulcan arrived) and it should help recover some sales for them in the coming months. Also, there is a renewed enthusiasm in the market thanks to the tax drops. I personally think there will be a slight growth witnessed during the same period next year.
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Originally Posted by vishy76 RE, who is a major player as listed, was busy concentrating on its 650 twins. The thunderbird X series is not an all new launch either. The Continental GT died a gradual death as well. |
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Originally Posted by payeng 1. Royal Enfield - Continental GT (Currently Discontinued. 0 Numbers for the last few months)
2. Harley Davidson 750 (Street and Street Rod) - Currently settling to 150 per month from the initial 250-300 per month.
Rest of the brands show positive growth and the above two models being the reason for the de-growth of the 500 cc plus segment. |
Royal Enfield 500cc numbers are not included in the numbers provided by SIAM in the opening post. Else the yearly numbers would have been smashed only by Classic 500 in just two months.
However, Street was on the decline, no doubt. The combined numbers of Street 750 and Street Rod is still less than the numbers achieved by the Street 750 alone in the previous year. Harley has more to worry about - since the Vulcan S launched by Kawasaki seems to have got off to a good start too. Many would prefer a Japanese competition with a proven reliable motor.
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Originally Posted by pixantz Actually people have not really learnt how to choose a bike in India going by what kind of riding they do, what the bike is meant to do, and practicality be damned. Here it's just the snob value and people are so into that, that they go to great silly extents to amuse themselves which is not how it's really meant to be.
It's a more like, what the heck, I have the money for it and I want that one, so I'll get it because, boy oh boy, it looks fabulous, so what if it fries my thighs to work everyday. I have a superbike man! |
Quite right, however quite sad to generalise this trend for the market too.
I believe the market is finally maturing from snob value to selecting big motorcycles that are actually suitable for the Indian context. I can see many BHP'ians upgrading to bikes like the Versys 650, Tiger 800, Ninja 1000 etc over the likes of the Harleys, Zs, litre class superbikes etc. See any of the ownership report for these kind of bikes and you see how they are being used the way a big bike should be - rather than spending time inside the garage waiting it out for different seasons to get over - monsoons cause roads are wet, summer because bike heats up and what not!
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Originally Posted by abhijeet080808 Now, how about that Made in India KTM Duke 790 when the time comes? Now, that sounds like fun wrapped in a lightweight agile chassis.
I guess, many people had similar thought process and the fun to vfm ratio of the KTM Duke 390 proved unbeatable.
Oh well, and there is another category of people for whom nothing of what I wrote above made any sense. For them, there is always the trusty "Bullet". |
Absolutely Abhijeet. Segment will see an explosion if a made in India KTM 790 hits the market - just because of the pure VFM qoutient. Much like how the 390 is unbeatable in the VFM space currently.
But I wouldn't really agree regarding the Bullet though. Highest number of upgraders in Versys and Tiger groups seem to be coming from Bullets, with some of them having a Harley for sometime in between. The next big segment is that of upgraders from the 390s, those who have got used to the power of it and explored the country with it - but seeking more practical, comfortable and safer options to upgrade to.
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Originally Posted by Shumi_21 Aspirational value of a car compared to a motorcycle: |
Agree with your other points, except this one.
None of the cars in any comparable price range have aspirational value anywhere close to a big capacity motorcycle. They make practical sense, no doubt. But a Baleno RS for example is absolutely nothing in front of something like a Triumph Tiger, the former will mostly be left drooling if one turns up next to him.
A gang of 6L - 15L motorcycles can turn heads and attract a big crowd even in the presence of a good number of 50L cars (BMWs, Audis, Mercs etc).
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Originally Posted by PrasannaDhana The way I see it, the single major reason for the drop in big bikes sales is KTM 390s! |
This would be the single biggest encouragement for manufacturers too. The success of the Duke 390 will ensure the future for big bikes in the Indian context, as the owners are likely to upgrade at some point for sure. Duke 390 has really taken the game forward when it comes to performance biking for the masses.
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Originally Posted by AtheK Exactly and to add to your point the new generation will rather rent a superbike for a day when they want to ride, rather then to plonk lacs of rupees, we never had that option. |
Not till rentals become more reasonable. Hiring a superbike paying more than 10k a day and then riding it at 100kmph doesn't make sense. Atleast a speed of 120kmph has to be allowed, which can be safely maintained on many Indian highways (considering the braking capabilities of these bikes as well).
Secondly, the bikes have to be maintained at-least as per the stock specs. Most superbikes at rentals have the cheapest tyres possible, many even downsized just to save up on costs. Some have tyres with rather ridiculous speed ratings and some are pushed to the extreme end of their tread life.
Not a safe option to enjoy sensibly, IMO.
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Originally Posted by Red Liner One thing most folks don't realize is that almost every single 600CC+ motorcycle sales/service point is available only in Tier 1 Cities. And most folks chiming in here are from Tier 1 Cities.
Harley, Kawasaki, and Triumph have recently begun making inroads into Tier 2 cities with sales and service centers. |
True.
Infact, I think the future has good potential for 500cc plus capacity motorbikes -
1. KTM 790, built in India, whenever it arrives.
2. Bajaj - Triumph partnership.
3. Kawasaki focussing on service network, spares localisation and more local assembly.
4. Trump batting for Harley and possible further reduction in duties.
5. Royal Enfield twins.
The market is slowly but steadily moving upwards, for sure.