[RahulNagaraj]

According to reports, manual transmission is becoming a rarity in many markets around the world. As per data from JATO Dynamics, manual gearboxes are losing their popularity, with more motorists preferring auto transmissions everywhere.



As per the data, in 2000, 89 - 95% of all new cars sold in Europe came with a manual gearbox. However, in 2022, this percentage dropped to 34%, while only 32% of new cars sold in the first half of 2023 came with a manual gearbox. Similarly, the USA, which has predominantly been favourable to automatic transmissions, in 2010, had 6% of light-duty vehicles featuring a manual gearbox. However, over the last two years, cars with manual transmissions account for less than 1%.



Reports state that today's drivers are more aware of the advantages of having an automatic, especially in cities where traffic jams keep getting worse. Another reason is that the price gap between manuals and automatic has shrunk considerably in recent years. Adding to these is the influx of EVs in the market, which eliminates the need for a transmission altogether.

However, data does show that in emerging economies, manual transmission still remains a valid choice. Almost 30% of new car sales in markets like Latin America and/or South Africa feature a manual gearbox.

Source: Motor1

Link to Team-BHP news

[nisshith]

Wait for 20 years and you will see same data for self-driving cars vs normal cars.

[SmartCat]

Overall India numbers: 72% Manual / 28% Automatic

Maruti India: 88% Manual / 12% Automatic
Hyundai India: 75% Manual / 25% Automatic
VW India: 40% Manual / 60% Automatic

Source:
https://indianexpress.com/article/ex...-tech-8996339/

[GrammarNazi]

While Indian car makers have made the clutch action of manual transmissions buttery smooth, new gen Automatics are incredibly well tuned to shift at precisely the correct time to balance drivability as well as not hugely compromise the fuel economy.

For most people in India it's the advantage of being free to shift focus from operating the vehicle within chaotic traffic, to just being vigilant of the nasty unpredictable surroundings.

28% automatic transmission market-share in India is despite us being a "fuel efficiency sensitive" market. If India had, say hypothetically, approx even 30% of the average per capita income level of the top 7 countries, then the market-share of automatics would be atleast 50% IMO. Maybe even 70%.

[SmartCat]

Originally Posted by GrammarNazi

28% automatic transmission market-share in India is despite us being a "fuel efficiency sensitive" market.

Highly unlikely most buyers know AT cars give 5% to 10% lower fuel economy in the real world. Especially since car salesmen are trained to answer fuel economy question with "same mileage sir" answer, quoting ARAI figures as proof.

But India is more of a 'price sensitive' market, as seen by Maruti numbers (88% manual). Customers can clearly see that AT cars cost 5% to 10% more than their manual counterparts. Remember that when somebody is buying a Rs. 9 Lacs on road price car, he probably had initially set a budget of Rs. 8 Lacs. So adding additional 5% to 10% to Rs. 9 Lacs is out of question

The convenience of automatic in city traffic loses out to more attractive features like touchscreen, automatic climate control, keyless ignition & go, alloys etc. That is, "ZXi MT" will seem like better value for money than "VXi AT".

And for daily commute in city traffic & running small errands, most entry/mid priced car owners will prefer a scooter/bike anyway - for convenience/low running costs respectively. Most folks use cars only on weekend run with family or occassional highway trips or when it is raining!

[Gummybear]

With electrics penetration, manual gearshift will have anyhow go away. We are lucky generation to enjoy the manuals.

I think in next decade, there will be similar report for sales of human driven cars being taken over by autonomous cars.

Auto gear shift, auto headlamps, auto wipers, ADAS, voice activated features, gps navigation, 360 cameras, radars..these features can provide tremendous amount of data for machines to learn and become autonomous.

[aviator1101]

Leave aside manual transmission, at this rate, in maybe another 20 years, we will have AI driven cars with (human on the loop) HOTL intervention, and manual override might itself be an optional feature.

[thehighwayman]

With the advent of EVs, this will slowly become a moot point.

[KVNair]

Just about yesterday, I realized a pain point which I think may apply to all automatic types. I have three cars: one a manual, second a DCT, and third an AMT.

The other day, I took the AMT car out in the night for a round-trip of about 80 kms. On the way back home, the car stalled and switched off. I tried to crank, but it never started. I called a nearby car battery guy for help, suspecting a battery issue as the car had not run for the last 3 weeks. The battery guy came and jump started the car, and I continued my trip thinking all is well again. But, after just a km or so, the car automatically went to neutral and stopped with the car engine running. I tried to move the shifter to Drive, Reverse, etc. but the gear won't shift as shown in the display, though the gear shifter or stick would move to different positions as usual. Finally, when restarting and all other tricks went in vain, I had to leave the car on the road overnight and get it towed to a service station the next day. Now, the car is repaired and the service centre says it was a sensor and starter motor issue. I am not so technically sound with automobiles, so I don't know why the gear got stuck at neutral.

But, after this incident, somehow I feel that even though the automatics have become reliable and fast, butter smooth, etc. the sheer simplicity of a manual and the option to get it repaired cheap is better for folks who have manuals. I think I could have continued my journey had it been a manual as the local garage could have fixed it. Being an automatic, they were also not sure of the issue on the spot. Just shared to point that how automatic convenience may not always be an advantage.

Note: Not mentioning the car makes or transmission makes in my post because that is not relevant to my point and will unnecessary trigger an automatic or AMT reliability based on its make replies. Thanks.

[Livnletcarsliv]

Originally Posted by KVNair

Just about yesterday, I realized a pain point which I think may apply to all automatic types. I have three cars: one a manual, second a DCT, and third an AMT.

But, after this incident, somehow I feel that even though the automatics have become reliable and fast, butter smooth, etc. the sheer simplicity of a manual and the option to get it repaired cheap is better for folks who have manuals. I think I could have continued my journey had it been a manual as the local garage could have fixed it. Being an automatic, they were also not sure of the issue on the spot. Just shared to point that how automatic convenience may not always be an advantage.

Note: Not mentioning the car makes or transmission makes in my post because that is not relevant to my point and will unnecessary trigger an automatic or AMT reliability based on its make replies. Thanks.

Sorry about the incident and the hardship you faced.

However, I would like to differ here. Just because it is manual, it cannot be repaired anywhere. I was using a manual car for almost 3 years and I was stuck in the middle of the road 3 times for the same issue. The issue was fixed only at the service center and not by a near by mechanic.

There is no doubt that a manual has simple mechanics compared to an automatic. But it is also very important about the brand and other factors that may fail - be it manual or automatic. Now coming to the automatics itself, it is SIGNIFICANT about the type of automatic. So it is very relevant about the type of automatic - AMT vs DCT in your case. We cannot just look past the type of automatic to take the side of Manual. AMT is the worst type of automatic. The only reason why it still exists today is because it is cheap.

Automatics have come a long way (decades of use) and gained enough to replace the manual itself. So reliability/safety concern is long gone and is completely put behind with automatics.

[dhanushs]

Auto transmissions have evolved to be much better in giving accurate control over your powertrain than even Manual transmissions. I'm not seeing technologically and practically why people should hesitate to move to AT's except for the initial product cost.

Originally Posted by Gummybear

..We are lucky generation to enjoy the manuals....

While in some sense it is true, it is also like first generation of car owners saying how lucky they were to self crank the car from the outside, and how good the 'feel' of it was.

[alpha1]

Originally Posted by dhanushs

Auto transmissions have evolved to be much better in giving accurate control over your powertrain than even Manual transmissions. I'm not seeing technologically and practically why people should hesitate to move to AT's except for the initial product cost.

There is also an angle of reliability (time and comfort lost during breakdown) and longevity (otherwise doing great vehicle to be discarded as soon as the warranty expires) of automatic transmission. And then cost associated with replacements (most autos don't get repaired). So, this also has to be factored along with the initial product cost.

[avisidhu]

Originally Posted by dhanushs

........
While in some sense it is true, it is also like first generation of car owners saying how lucky they were to self crank the car from the outside, and how good the 'feel' of it was.

Well manual does enhance the driving experience a fair bit if the car is right But declining interest in 'fun to drive' cars and more widespread adoption of UVs has neutralize the driving experience regardless of transmission.

It still makes sense to have manual in the likes of Civic Type R or Golf R. A tiny sliver of such manual transmission, NA/Turbo petrol cars might eventually survive.

[DicKy]

Originally Posted by dhanushs

While in some sense it is true, it is also like first generation of car owners saying how lucky they were to self crank the car from the outside, and how good the 'feel' of it was.

Nah. Wrong analogy.

Simple example. No one has went back to manual cranking of engine or manual winding of windows or fuelled lamps for driving enthusiasm. But manual transmission still hold sway for driving enthusiasts even in automatic loving USA, where there are models exclusively for the US market with manual transmission that are not offered elsewhere.

There maybe people who go by numbers or convenience, but there are still buyers who want that absolute control over rowing their own gears. Ofcourse, it doesn't apply to the mainstream car market in India, where manual is preferred for various other reasons.

[Nits83]

Originally Posted by SmartCat

Overall India numbers: 72% Manual / 28% Automatic

Maruti India: 88% Manual / 12% Automatic
Hyundai India: 75% Manual / 25% Automatic
VW India: 40% Manual / 60% Automatic

Source:
https://indianexpress.com/article/ex...-tech-8996339/

And still manufacturers like Kia are not willing to give all engine variants and manual transmission in top trim, I for one would like the option to choose.