[RahulNagaraj]

According to the latest data, BYD became the 4th largest global car brand in the month of August 2023, overtaking the likes of Ford & Hyundai.

The report states that Toyota, despite a 2.6% decline in sales, retained the top position in August. Volkswagen & Honda completed the top 3, registering 6.5% and 4.9% sales share, respectively. BYD occupied fourth place ahead of both Hyundai & Ford, with a sales share of just 0.1% behind Honda.



Reports suggest that Toyota & Honda will get a major boost with demand from the Southeast Asian markets. However, for BYD to crack the top 3, the Chinese carmaker will have to accelerate its export expansion plans.

It is important to note that BYD has a mostly electrified lineup. Ford slipped to 6th position in the list, with a 6.7% drop in sales compared to July 2023. The sales decline is said to be mainly due to the ongoing UAW strike and Russia's recent announcement regarding restrictions on the exportation of fossil fuels.

Source: TrendForce

Link to Team-BHP news

[PreludeSH]

Surprised about Honda. Thought they were still small, independent manufacturer even in sales numbers. Not much difference after the 3rd position. Suzuki's number without India could be much lower.

[callmeneo]

And if one clubs Hyundai and Kia then the combined entity would become the number 2.

[SmartCat]

Unlike Hyundai in its early days, BYD seems to have taken a different route to gain global marketshare. Notice the names and designations:

[gauravdgr8]

BYD is there in a big way in the EU region. The models available in India plus some more which are a true copy of Tesla, specially the BYD Seal.

I could see VWs and BYD in almost equal numbers and they being at no. 4 does not surprise me.

But it sure does surprise the European Union and therefore the below news:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...te%20subsidies.

[extreme_torque]

Originally Posted by gauravdgr8

BYD is there in a big way in the EU region. The models available in India plus some more which are a true copy of Tesla, specially the BYD Seal.

I could see VWs and BYD in almost equal numbers and they being at no. 4 does not surprise me.

But it sure does surprise the European Union and therefore the below news:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...te%20subsidies.

I am not at all surprised. There is hardly any innovation coming out of Europe these days and their last bastion which is their cars is now under huge threat. Expect more of this in future

https://worldpopulationreview.com/co...nts-by-country

[SmartCat]

Originally Posted by extreme_torque

I am not at all surprised. There is hardly any innovation coming out of Europe these days and their last bastion which is their cars is now under huge threat. Expect more of this in future

If you add individual European countries patent applications, I guess it will still be a significant number. After all, individual European countries are tiny in terms of both geographic size and population, when compared to US/China.

Anyway, there is a direct link between innovation and military power/threats/dominance. Most new technologies have got and still get funding/support primarily because of military applications (Eg: space exploration, internet, drones, AI, 6G etc). The civilian use of such technologies is just a welcome sideshow. After dissolution of Soviet Union, Europe has probably has become complacent because they no longer feel the need to invest enough in military technologies (by extension, future technologies)

Another issue with Europe is that it is not as inviting as USA for attracting top talent from India/China. Very likely because most of Europe does not speak English. A significant % of number of patents filed by USA will have either Indian or Chinese immigrant connection (both direct & indirect)

[GTO]

A crucial point is that BYD has gotten here by selling electrified vehicles only (EVs where they are king, and hybrid). BYD ended the production of petrol cars last year.

Originally Posted by extreme_torque

I am not at all surprised. There is hardly any innovation coming out of Europe these days and their last bastion which is their cars is now under huge threat.

If that's what you think of Europe, would love to hear your opinion on Japan . Japan either has low presence or is weak in electric cars, big turbo-petrols, powerful turbo-diesels, dual-clutch ATs etc. etc. Just see what they are selling in India - age old NA engines with old gearboxes & yesterday's feature lists.

Agreed with you partially on EU. But Europe is fast catching up. Look at their progress in EVs. The latest generations coming out of Germany are damn good and a match to the best in the world.

[extreme_torque]

Originally Posted by SmartCat

If you add individual European countries patent applications, I guess it will still be a significant number. After all, individual European countries are tiny in terms of both geographic size and population, when compared to US/China.

It would also be a significantly larger population only less than China in the list but much bigger than Japan, SK or even USA. Of the top 10 in the most patents by country list that I referenced, 6 are European and combined they have less patents than Japan which has a much smaller population compared to the 6 european countries combined.

Originally Posted by SmartCat

A significant % of number of patents filed by USA will have either Indian or Chinese immigrant connection (both direct & indirect)

I dont think it will be significant number given China and India combined constitute only about 2% of the entire US population. Anecdotally, of my entire list of friends which are in US only two have ever applied and subsequently granted a patent. Even if we are thrice as likely to file for patents in technology than the local population - it would still be around 6% of that number assuming all Indian/Chinese work in professional jobs. Also most Indians in US work in tech or are doctors than other engineering disciplines like mechanical engineering and I assume a number of patents would come from those disciplines as well.

[SmartCat]

Originally Posted by extreme_torque

I dont think it will be significant number given China and India combined constitute only about 2% of the entire US population.Even if we are thrice as likely to file for patents in technology than the local population - it would still be around 6% of that number assuming all Indian/Chinese work in professional jobs.

There is data available on this if you look around. This is old 2006 data, it is likely to be similar or better now, especially if you include indirect contribution (just a team member for example)

Indians dominate U.S. patent ranks in 2006, study says
Group grabbed one in 10 patents granted last year
https://www.soc.duke.edu/GlobalEngin...al_indians.pdf

While Indians make up less than one percent of the American population, more than one out of every 10 inventions patented in the United States in 2006 had an owner or a coowner with an Indian name, new research by a team of scientists at Harvard Law School, New York University and Duke University revealed. Of the 42,019 international patent applications filed through the U.S. receiving office in 2006, 13.7 percent — or 5,761 applications — had an inventor or a co-inventor with an Indian-heritage name, according to data the researchers obtained after analyzing the World Intellectual Property Organization database

This is not unexpected because Indian/Chinese immigration is mostly merit based. And let's not forget the contribution of Chinese immigrants to continued domination of United States in tech field:

[extreme_torque]

Originally Posted by GTO

A crucial point is that BYD has gotten here by selling electrified vehicles only (EVs where they are king, and hybrid). BYD ended the production of petrol cars last year.

And their average selling price is quite low as well and their margins razor thin and most of their volumes comes from China but its quite an achievement still coming from a Chinese company. Not too long ago, Chinese cars were the butt of jokes around the world. A decade later, they are beating Europeans at their own game.

Originally Posted by GTO

If that's what you think of Europe, would love to hear your opinion on Japan . Japan either has low presence or is weak in electric cars, big turbo-petrols, powerful turbo-diesels, dual-clutch ATs etc. etc. Just see what they are selling in India - age old NA engines with old gearboxes & yesterday's feature lists.

There is no doubt that the japanese are late to the EV game and EV's that they have come out have been below average which is quite surprising given they were actually the first movers when it came to electrification with their hybrids. As for the rest, I think Japanese play it safe - for them durability and reliability is more important than outright numbers. For e.g. a Lexus LFA would be just as reliable as any other Lexus and yet it can rev from 0 to its redline around 9000 rpm in less than .6 of a second and make more than 550bhp. They have a reputation to maintain.

Originally Posted by GTO

Agreed with you partially on EU. But Europe is fast catching up. Look at their progress in EVs. The latest generations coming out of Germany are damn good and a match to the best in the world.

Europe is not catching up in the EV game. Far from it infact. This is the recent news from VW
https://thedriven.io/2023/07/06/cust...%20for%20Tesla.

Tesla is eating their lunch and dinner and their brunch even though Europe in the past has tended towards buying their home brand cars. There are multiple reasons but i will point out a few egregious one's - they have poor to non existent software game - the ID range hasn't got a single OTA update (I have 7 in the last 3 months for my Tesla Model Y Performance), ironically VW's own page for OTA update mention taking the car to the dealer to install the update
https://europe.autonews.com/automake...nt-report-says

They cant make them profitably and of the many reasons one of them is that they take thrice as long to build a car compared to someone like a Tesla
https://europe.autonews.com/automake...nt-report-says They have none of the other engineering smarts either or the integration between hardware and software as a Tesla (Read super bottle, octovalve etc - but in a nutshell Tesla is so anal about preserving energy that they even scavenge heat from the AC compressor or even the ventilation fan in the car)

They cant match the spec or performance of a Tesla even with larger batteries - for e.g. The slowest Tesla is faster than the fastest ID.3 and even then the ID.3 does not have the range, performance, space, practicality, tech or safety of Tesla and by a long shot. They lag most Chinese EV companies too. Most of Audi's e-Tron range is glorified VW's and carries the same negatives as well. BMW is no better either. Infact VW is so desperate now that they have invested 700mn in Chinese Xpeng to help them develop cars for the Chinese market.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/27/c...20April%202023.

Tesla supercharging network was a genius move and is one of the primary reason to buy a Tesla over anything else. Using supercharging station is painless too and by design - you just arrive and plug in and that is it

I can say more but i'd stop here. I would be very surprised if most European car makers survive this decade and even if they do, they would be a shadow of their former self. And I have mentioned Tesla mostly because one I own one so I know and second most of my research in EV's is centered around Tesla because they are the disrupters and I have personally invested in the company stock because I can see the inevitable.

[Turbanator]

Originally Posted by extreme_torque

And their average selling price is quite low as well and their margins razor thin.

No idea about other places but here they have priced pretty high. Or maybe we find it high because there are no worthy competitors but to say low average prices for EV-specific makers when compared with peers from ICE would be wrong. I don't think we have reached a situation (anywhere?) where an EV will be cheaper than an ICE car.

I would be very surprised if most European car makers survive this decade and even if they do, they would be a shadow of their former self.

No, that is not going to happen. Do look at some of the newer launches from BMW, Mercedes or even Volvo. Not updated with VW but am sure, they all are working. Porsche certainly has a road map for EVs. Tesla has surely gained a lot but to say, EU manufacturers won't survive beyond this decade- I don't see it this way.

I would be very surprised if most European car makers survive this decade and even if they do, they would be a shadow of their former self. I have personally invested in the company stock because I can see the inevitable.

I, too, like Tesla, but will Tesla make something like an i7 or an EQS or a Taycan? Not everyone wants minimalistic designs; many want to travel/ drive in luxury, and that's something that will be with mainstream EU manufacturers for a while. Not that Tesla cannot make but they don't want to spend their efforts (rightly so).

[extreme_torque]

Originally Posted by Turbanator

No, that is not going to happen. Do look at some of the newer launches from BMW, Mercedes or even Volvo. Not updated with VW but am sure, they all are working. Porsche certainly has a road map for EVs. Tesla has surely gained a lot but to say, EU manufacturers won't survive beyond this decade- I don't see it this way.

I was perhaps a little melodramatic here but the biggest problem they have right now is that they do not have a profitable EV volume model yet and they do not seem be to making any headway either. Look at Mercedes yearly sales since 2018 - they peaked in 2018 and have been declining consistently ever since. Their two biggest markets apart from Europe are USA and China and they have enormous competition to contend with. Infact China is their biggest market by far - it is 3 times bigger than USA in terms of unit sales.
| Year | Sales |
| 2018 | 2.31 million |
| 2019 | 2.34 million |
| 2020 | 2.16 million |
| 2021 | 2.04 million |
| 2022 | 2.05 million |
Having a roadmap is too late, they should be executing now.

This is Tesla by the way over the same period. They have been executing their plan of growing their unit sales by 50% YOY almost without fail inspite of challenges with supply chain and other market challenges during COVID. They are well set to do 1.8mn cars this year - doing so would make them almost as big as Mercedes/BMW in unit volumes.

| Year | Sales |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 245,240 |
| 2019 | 367,500 |
| 2020 | 499,550 |
| 2021 | 936,172 |
| 2022 | 1,313,851 |

Also, what happens when autonomy is solved? I ask this question because of all the car makers, Tesla is best placed to solve it given their hardware and software chops and most access to real world data from their world wide fleet of million of cars to train their neural network on. They also released self driving beta 12 recently which is end to end neural network i.e. no heuristics coded into the system. The system learns driving purely by looking at the videos.

Originally Posted by Turbanator

I, too, like Tesla, but will Tesla make something like an i7 or an EQS or a Taycan? Not everyone wants minimalistic designs; many want to travel/ drive in luxury, and that's something that will be with mainstream EU manufacturers for a while. Not that Tesla cannot make but they don't want to spend their efforts (rightly so).

Agreed but they are not volume models. I dont think Mercedes or BMW can even survive based solely on high end car sales alone.

If the world is going electric, either they would fail or be a shadow of their former self within a decade.

https://europe.autonews.com/automake...3000-sales-lag

[Turbanator]

Originally Posted by extreme_torque

I was perhaps a little melodramatic here but the biggest problem they have right now is that they do not have a profitable EV volume model yet

Yes because they have an ICE division to run and stay competitive per customers' requirements. Any company that ventures into something new has challenges, money being the foremost, followed by resources.

Tesla took the lead and is building on it as they created something brand new, and they are the primary reasons for the successful transition in the North American market and Europe now.

Forget profitability, I don't see any mass-market product from Mercedes yet, like C or E class. Same for BMW, though they are catching up fast. My son who drives a Model 3 is very keen to consider the upcoming i5. But currently, the gap on prices between ICE and EVs from most EU manufacturers is high. Not everyone wants to pay or consider EVs, so they buy regular ICE from these companies.

Also, what happens when autonomy is solved? I ask that because Tesla is best placed to solve it given their hardware and software chops

I don't think we are going to see fully autonomous cars anytime soon. These should happen first on some of the dedicated corridors. Human life in most countries is too valuable to allow, irrespective of technology. I don't have a very good experience with Tesla self-driving. Mercedes has a fairly good experience on this also.

I dont think Mercedes or BMW can even survive solely on high end car sales alone.

They have ICE models to support them for a long time. EV divisions should continue to get supported internally. I am eagerly awaiting new launches like "Neue Klasse"

If the world is going electric, either they would fail or be a shadow of their former self within a decade.

Since you are good in numbers, do look at the overall sales in the last 3 or 4 years of EV and ICE

Anyways, on the subject, given my preference for EVs, the numbers of BYD are something to cheer about. It also shows the changing preferences and trends in future.

[OffRoadFun]

European automotive companies, even may be American, are looking at bleak future for following reasons, from the article:

Source (title is a bit misleading due to anti-China bias by NYT in my opinion but still worth a read):

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/05/b...-vehicles.html


1. Level of automation in Chinese EV companies is way ahead of big three (and probably even European/Japanese). Big three are playing catching up
2. US worker is expensive, $110k in average salary on top of that
3. The Chinese own the best battery technology and have economies of scale.
4. Chinese EV industry is brutally competitive and much more advanced than most legacy automakers
5. Implicit subsidies by government of China is a buffer

When UBS analysts analyzed a VW vs BYD car, they found it costs 30% more to manufacture ID.3 car by VW as compared to BYD. 30% cost differential is HUGE in auto industry.

No wonder, this is what UBS predicts:

Paul Gong, head of Asia automotive research for the bank UBS, predicted that Chinese carmakers would capture a third of the global car market by the end of the decade. Much of the growth in his forecast is a jump in Chinese carmakers’ share of the European market to 20 percent, from just 3 percent now.

Unless major innovation comes from US/EU soon, coupled with economies of scale, it seems Chinese are unstoppable!