[Rajeevraj]

We recently looked at the car sales numbers and automotive picture of a number of Key International Markets (US Car Sales Analysis, European, Australian and Russian Markets, Pakistan Sales, China Sales ). Of course this can go on and on which is neither feasible nor interesting. Hence here is a summarized look at the World Car Market (Covering countries where there is data available).

Key things looked at:

• Total Car Sales across the world (Mostly based on 2015 Numbers)
• The Top Selling models across the world. Cars that rack up Huge Numbers.
• Manufacturer level sales and world market share.
• Challenges faced by the Automotive Industry Worldwide
• Comparison with India numbers where possible. Since India numbers are the ones we know best and hence will help give a good perspective.

World Car Sales- 2015 Top Markets, History and Trends

• After the first 9 months of the year, worldwide sales were at 65.7 Million up 1.7% from the previous qtr. But an interesting twist to this is that the non premium brands actually fell in sales and the growth was achieved via the Premium Brands led by Mercedes and BMW.
• First chart below is a summary of the Top 20 Car Markets in 2015. Not surprisingly US and China lead the pack, followed by UK, Germany, Japan and India.
• The next summary is historical world wide sales from 1990 and a region wise drill down. A good picture on how the Automotive Market has grown-Especially in Asia.
• A further drill down into sales for all countries where data is available is also presented below. The data is from site Trading Economics.
  
  • This is an interesting site with tons of indicators (Not just Automotive).
    
  • The basics views are free access. To download data you need to buy subscriptions.
    
  • The below are images. But if you go to the site and click on the (+) sign, it will take you to the country level view where you can look at data for that country spanning the years data is available (India View shown as an example- Data from 1992 onward)
    

World Top 20 Markets in 2015 (Till September)





Worldwide Sales Data. Covering 1990 to 2015 (Projected)



A breakdown by Region

Key Observation

• Europe has not grown too much. In fact there is a reduction in sales.
• The US Sales have grown, but not very significantly percentage wise
• The real growth has been fueled by Asia.

Detailed Country Level Sales- Highest, Lowest and Reference Numbers

Notes

• The Kazhakhistan Number is not accurate. Guess it is a data issue from the source.
• The US numbers do not include the 'Light Trucks', which make up 59% of the Market. Hence it reflects only half of the overall sales

.

Drilling Down into India Sales from 1992 with a Trend Line

Source: Trading Economics-India Car Registrations


Next a look at the Top Selling Cars Worldwide in 2015

Top Selling Cars in 2015 (Until September)

While there are several cars sold in India in this list. There are only 3 cars that make the list solely due to the performance/sales in India. Not surprisingly all are from Maruti

• Alto at 58
• Dzire at 76
• Swift at 85

Drilling down further into this. A comparison of the World Wide Sales vs the Sales in India for the models that have presence in India (Note: The Big Germans (Mercedes, Audi, BMW) are not included in the list as their India numbers are not clearly available for the duration at model level. Some niche products (Camry, Prius, Passat) have also not been considered.

• Some of these models are not really in a mass segment, but the comparison still helps show the picture.
• Not a very pretty picture. Only ~25 of the Worlds Top 100 are sold in India.
• As expected, the Alto, Dzire and Swift get 100% of the sales from India.(If I am not mistaken the Alto is exported to some countries, I assume those are not covered in these numbers)
• Apart from these from a Global Perspective, only the i20 and the Honda City get a significant portion of sales from India. Followed by the Ecosport, Verna and Polo.
• Chevrolet numbers are the shockers here. The Sail, Spark, Enjoy, Cruze are huge sellers world wide. The models sold here are similar. But sales in India is totally insignificant.

Sources:

• Focus2Move
• Team-Bhp Monthly Sales Reports
• statista.com

[Rajeevraj]

A look at the Manufacturer Level Sales for 2015 (Until September), the world wide market share and India Market Share.

Special thanks to Team-Bhp Moderator Aditya for sharing the raw data of the India numbers. Helped build the above chart easily.

Key Observations

• As we are already aware, the percent of sales from India from the Global Leaders is minuscule.
• The Indian Market is pretty much still under Maruti. No one else is close.
• Tata and Mahindra numbers are a little surprising. Expected a majority percent to be from India. But could not get the data to cross verify the global numbers. Any clarification on this is welcome.

Challenges and Trends affecting the Automobile Industry.

Below data is from a paper on the challenges that the Automobile Industry is facing released by Price Water Coopers. This is not meant to be an all encompassing view of the trends, but just one viewpoint. The reason this is interesting is that we can easily relate the trends/challenges mentioned below to what we see in the India Automobile Industry.

The Biggest Challenge being faced is the unevenness and the uncertainty of the global market as show in the info graphic below.

What is driving change? Three major forces are rolling the Automotive Industry

• Shifts in consumer demand. Consumers appear to be rethinking their long love affair with individual automobile brands and viewing cars more as transportation machines. Although this is not likely to have a major impact on sales volume, it is affecting how much people are willing to pay for automobiles. That willingness is also affected by the waning of product differentiation, due partly to a general increase in vehicle quality throughout the industry. The Detroit Three have caught up with Japanese OEMs, and the mass market is catching up with luxury. Consumers are also demanding more sophisticated infotainment systems at a low price, and are expecting more high-end features to be standard.
  • An India View of this: We can see this trend reflected clearly here. Gone are the days when people bought a car just because it is 'Honda' or 'Volkswagen'.
    
    
  • Product differenciation is becoming increasingly blurred. For example: India's B2/C1 Segment Petrols: Jazz, i20, Baleno, Figo, Polo, The compact sedans, all of them have similar engines with similar outputs. Differentiation is basically on factors like space, nice to have fancy stuff and After Sales.
    
    
  • From an India perspective, brands which have been considered solidly built are lowering benchmarks. So we have a Honda built like a Maruti, A Figo or Aspire closer to a Japanese build as opposed to an American build etc.
    
    
  
  
• Expanded regulatory requirements. Tighter corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) regulations in the United States as well as the rest of the world are more expensive for OEMs to comply with, requiring higher volume to amortize increasing costs. Regulators are also mandating that more safety-related features, such as backup cameras, be included as standard equipment on new models, adding further to costs.
  
  • In India, although the focus on this is less, manufacturers here are now forced to offer things like ABS and Airbags as standard. And with the new Govt' directive that ABS and Airbags are mandatory from Oct 1st 2017, it is leading to additional pressure on manufacturers
    
  
  
• Increasing availability of data and information. Information about vehicle usage and driver behavior usage is proliferating as sensors and telematics systems become more common. Meanwhile, consumers are awash in easily accessible information about automobile specifications, prices, discounts, quality, and performance, giving buyers greater bargaining power.
  • With several online resources and forums (Like Team-Bhp) most buyers have tons of information before even setting foot in a dealership. Hence buyers have a clear picture on the model, features, how it is selling etc.. Puts pressure on the manufacturers and dealers to ensure they are also at the top of their game.

What are the general impacts seen due to the above trends

• Increased Electronics and Software Content. The cost of electronics and software content in autos was less than 20 percent of the total cost a decade ago. Today it is as much as 35 percent. A key way for OEM's to differenciate products.
  
  
• Collection and usage of customer data: Large amounts of data being collected. But no real clarity on how to best use this.
  
  
• Regulatory restrictions related to emissions and other related items. Only a small percent of people are willing to pay for greener cleaner transport. So the onus of this falls on the OEM.
  
  
• Next generation Platforms and Platform Modularization. Driven by customer need for more segments of vehicles.Moving towards less number of platforms churning out more varieties of vehicles. Helps in controlling
  costs. As we can see several variants on the same platform (Taking Honda for Example: multiple vehicles like Brio, Amaze, Mobilio based on the same platform
  

Summary of the above via an Infographic.

Before signing off, there is a nice analysis by McKinsey: The Road to 2020 and beyond. What is Driving the global Automotive Industry: McK_The_road_to_2020_and_beyond (1).pdf


Reference Source:
PWC-Analysis

[GTO]

Thread moved from the Assembly Line to the International Scene. Thanks for sharing!

[Karthik Chandra]

Thanks Rajeevraj!!!

This thread has given great insight on world automotive scene.

However I observed the following

Hyundai: 3522796
Honda: 3525614

Shouldn't Honda be placed 4th?

Also Chevy and Nissan volumes are similar: 3213675 and their market share differs, 5% for Chevy and 5.40% for Nissan

Pardon my ignorance in case I'm missing something

Kudos for the effort in compiling the report

[Rajeevraj]

Originally Posted by Karthik Chandra

Hyundai: 3522796
Honda: 3525614

Shouldn't Honda be placed 4th?

Also Chevy and Nissan volumes are similar: 3213675 and their market share differs, 5% for Chevy and 5.40% for Nissan

Pardon my ignorance in case I'm missing something

Hey Karthik. Thanks for the catch. Couple of numbers were messed up. Honda should have been "3255.. " and not "3525.." slip of the hand while typing. Similarly Chevy and Nissan are not the same. Again a typo. had to manually enter these numbers for the India comparo, hence the typo.

Thanks again for pointing it out. Below is the correct chart. Will request the mods to replace it in the above post also

[400notout]

Originally Posted by Rajeevraj

Chevrolet numbers are the shockers here. The Sail, Spark, Enjoy, Cruze are huge sellers world wide. The models sold here are similar. But sales in India is totally insignificant.

If i'm not mistaken, figures of 616 is for the Spark (Matiz) in India . It is compared to the international numbers of the Beat , which is known as Spark globally.

But nonetheless a great perspective on automotive sales.

[jeevadeepan]

Excellent compilation! Surprising to see (contrary to my prejudice), Honda selling more CR-Vs than Civic and Accord.

And, Global Top 10 consists of 4 SUV/pickups(Honda CR-V, Toyota RA4, Ford F-series, Chevrolet Silverado). Shows, consumer's change in preference from compacts to bigger vehicles.

[rrsteer]

Many thanks for the data. Too much information to fathom. I am going to return to this many times in the next few days.

At this point, Mercedes' global volumes catch my attention.

There are 2 Mercedes models in the top sellers compared to only 1 from BMW. The 2 Audi models come in quite low. So are we going to see Mercedes return to the top of the pack as the largest luxury brand ( if we exclude Mini and RR for BMW)? The C Class and the E Class are top sellers in their segments and I am pretty sure S Class would be as well. Although there is no view on the performance of luxury SUVs and entry level luxury cars.

Any which way, I feel these numbers are a vindication of the efforts of Daimler management so far. I remember reading analyst reports around 2009-2010 on how the management had aimed to regain the luxury crown by 2018. I really doubted their plans/ strategy then. The analysts too were not convinced. Since then I stopped following the luxury car market, as Mercedes (my favourite brand then) was underperforming and generally, I just lost interest in German luxury cars as their designs (particularly Mercedes') stopped inspiring me.

[The Rationalist]

Hyundai is the largest shareholder in Kia, so doesn't technically Hyundai become the largest car manufacturer? Or only if the ownership is above 50% does such a thing arises?

[Karthik Chandra]

Originally Posted by The Rationalist

Hyundai is the largest shareholder in Kia, so doesn't technically Hyundai become the largest car manufacturer? Or only if the ownership is above 50% does such a thing arises?

I guess it doesn't work that way, then we need to add VW, Audi and Skoda nos for VAG, and Chevy, Wuling and the likes for GM. These figures are for independent manufacturers, hence each company is listed separately

[anand_hc]

Great effort ! Thanks for sharing. Don't see data for Africa region. Considering that region would have highest growth opportunities it would be interesting to see the sales trend for that region too.

[mukul32]

Thanks a lot, RajeevRaj!! Every once a while, I tend to get bored with the routine, and then you come up with such interesting threads. That's a brilliant analysis.

However, I strongly noted one point. Having a look at the world's top selling cars - Corolla, Golf, F-pickup, Camry, Focus, CR-V, Elantra, etc. - all are cars with genuine capability. They are thoroughly engineered for whatever purpose they intend to serve. Those are bought because the buyer may actually need what they have to offer. And the likes of the Corolla, CR-V, Camry, Elantra, etc. coming in that list seems kinda obvious actually. They deserve the merit thoroughly.

Comparing that to India's top selling cars- Alto, Dzire, WagonR, 'Grand' i10, i20, Creta, Amaze, City, etc. one thing cannot be missed. You rightly pointed out that buyers' outlook is changing. And less people buy a car just seeing the badge these days.

However, the picture is not all that different now either. A car can sell because 'it looks like an SUV', or because 'it is a City' or because 'it is a sedan'. Conversely, some brilliant cars can also fail desperately, just because 'they look like hatchbacks' and 'because seemingly, 'the people deserve SUV looks for that kind of money'. Perhaps, we as a market are far too obsessed with the society and its outlook while making a purchase, and a car that satisfies your own needs and makes you happy, is just not enough. In some other cases, like the WagonR, Bolero, Omni, i20, etc the sheer utility or quality of a car for the intended application becomes the decisive factor, but such cars are very limited.

Instead, as we move up the price rung, the society influence becomes more and more prominent. For example, the Corolla that the rest of the world has, is a now slightly exciting version of what has been one of the most practical and reliable cars out there for a long time. It's a simple formula, really. A good family sedan that just totally works. No negatives on that car.
But the Corolla that we have here in India is vastly different despite being largely the same car. Here too it is the best seller in its segment, but that is because the Toyota badge is supposedly more 'premium' than the Hyundai or any other badge. And it sells at a huge price despite being vastly underpowered. Clearly, people don't need all the performance either.
That's also proved by the fact that almost all German luxury cars sold here are the entry level diesel variants. Just being an adequate performer for regular situations is more than enough for our public. Talking of the luxury brands, I would like to see how many base diesel Q3's or X1's were sold over top-end Passats or Superbs. The badge clearly coming into play.
And it is not as if people are looking for only luxury either. The Fortuner also sells for a similar amount as the Passat/Superb or the entry luxury Germans. Yet for nothing except sheer size and the earlier mentioned 'premium' badge, it far outsells all of them.
Clearly, our preferences while buying a car, especially expensive car, are governed too much by the society. What the people will think, how will I look superior to others in my car, how will only I get more respect on the road, etc etc coming into play.

That is something that is just right in the international automotive scene. A good car will sell well, the best car will sell the highest. There aren't such complications of perception. At least not in the really popular global models. Station wagons exist there. Estates exist there. Pickups exist there. Pickups actually sell too (at least in some countries like USA and Australia). Coupés actually exist there too! The newer technologies exist there first. They can give birth to something like Tesla Motors as well.

Tthat is one huge thing that India needs to learn from the international car scene. Alright, safety, infrastructure and traffic behaviour are paramount, but after that comes maturity too. We don't want to have only sedans and SUV's of all sizes and shapes, though with the safety kit in place, and later, only (fake) SUV's of all shapes, sizes and prices (they are 'superior' to sedans too, right?) plying on our streets. The diversity has to be there. And only a few 'prestige' brands having a hold of a huge market will give them freedom to start overpricing, etc and make entry of new brands extremely difficult. Renault have had to face a lot of trouble trying to establish themselves, for example.

We are already short of four entire body styles in our market- coupé, estate, van and pickup, and then several huge companies like VW, Skoda, GM, and Nissan, are nonexistent here too. Those make many a quality automobile. None have any to show here, except the badge-engineered ones from each other, or from the Chinese.
Our exotics are also almost ONLY sedans or SUV's. We buy only Cayennes and Panameras (those too diesel) and Quattroportes over 911's and DB9's. Okay, we aren't really a place for sportscars, and can't expect parallel sales, but GTO once mentioned a 9:1 ratio of sedans and SUV's to sportscars. And 9:1 at that price point in case of specialist sportscar makers isn't very pleasing to hear. Clearly, there is a lot missing. And I hope things catch up. And it will need that change in outlook over anything else. Both by the people and by the government. But majorly by the people.
We won't see huge change till, say, an Elantra or an S-Cross, succeeds here. We won't see change till we stop punishing one brand for overpricing (Volkswagen) but rewarding another for the same (Toyota). We won't see change till a Mahindra actually learns the real stuff from Jeep rather than merely aping them in a few places.

As an enthusiast, it will all be really great to see.

[Viraat13]

Originally Posted by Rajeevraj

Chevrolet numbers are the shockers here. The Sail, Spark, Enjoy, Cruze are huge sellers world wide. The models sold here are similar. But sales in India is totally insignificant.

The Chevy Spark, is the Indian Beat.

Excellent thread, with huge amounts of information. Will be reading it again.

[Rajeevraj]

Originally Posted by 400notout

If i'm not mistaken, figures of 616 is for the Spark (Matiz) in India . It is compared to the international numbers of the Beat , which is known as Spark globally.

Originally Posted by Viraat13

The Chevy Spark, is the Indian Beat.

Thanks for the clarifications. Looking at the Beat sales makes it slightly better. Chevrolet have sold 9733 units of beat during Jan-Sep 2015. 6.5% of globalssales

Originally Posted by anand_hc

Great effort ! Thanks for sharing. Don't see data for Africa region. Considering that region would have highest growth opportunities it would be interesting to see the sales trend for that region too.

Africa is considered a large market with ~350 million middle class with capacity to buy vehicles. While there is great potential for growth, the actual numbers are relatively pretty small. South Africa is the market with the greatest potential with a sales of ~35,000 units monthly. Still way lower than the biggies. The detailed country list in post 1 covers most of the African Countries individually. Could not find a specic consolidated view of the market.

This article (Link) is a good one of the African Market. It is from 2014 and the data is mostly from 2013, but still gives a perspective.

Some highlights

• Yearly vehicle sales in Africa will rise by a fifth over the next two years to 2m, according to one projection.
  
  
• Of the major brands active in Africa, Toyota is the clear market leader. It holds a 14% market share, selling 237,000 vehicles in the region in 2012. Toyota’s dominant position in the African market comes as little surprise, given its massive global presence. Having entered South Sudan recently, Toyota now has a presence in all 54 African countries. Last year, the Japanese auto firm said it anticipated that the African market would swell by as much as 5%. Its sales were highly concentrated in South Africa, where it sold 70,000 units, and North Africa, where it sold 100,000 units. The rest of Africa represented just 10,000 unit sales.
  
  
• Meanwhile, in 2013 General Motors sold 167,000 vehicles across Africa, a growth in sales volume of 9.5% compared with the year before. Its two most important markets were Egypt and South Africa. In Egypt in 2013, General Motors managed to capture almost a quarter of the market. In South Africa the auto firm sold slightly shy of 63,000 vehicles in 2013, giving it a market share of almost 10%.
  
  
• Nissan will use India as a production base for cars aimed at the African market; the auto firm’s plant in Chennai already churns out vehicles to be shipped to 10 countries across the world.
  
  
• India’s Tata Motors, which is currently focusing particularly on the South African market, aims to quadruple its sales in the country by 2018 – both in terms of combined passenger vehicles and light commercial vehicles. It sold 6,500 units in 2012 but wants to bring this up to 30,000 by 2018, reaching at least 12,000 by 2014. In order to achieve this, Tata plans to more than double its number of Associated Motor Holdings outlets from 48 to 100 in 2018. The company is due to diversify its product range in South Africa, introducing new models such as Tata Aria, Tata Prima and Tata Ultra Trucks.
  
  
• On a continent where disposable income, although rising, remains constrained, the used car market will continue to exert considerable pressure on the new vehicles market. Nigeria imports around 300,000 second-hand vehicles annually. According to the Japan Used Motor Vehicle Exporters Association, Japan alone exported 23,000 ‘pre-loved’ cars to the country in 2012.
  

This site (Link) also has detailed analysis on several countries

[V.Narayan]

Rajeevraj, Thank you for the data. Never realized that India is now the 5th largest car market in the world. What a proud moment. When I started my working life, a little before Maruti came, car production in our country was, I guess, several tens of thousands a year and now two and a half lakhs are sold in a month.