[Shobhitsaxena]

Fellow Team BHPians!

An alarming news came out today with signs of government considering no ICE vehicles in NCR. Scary part is that the article already talks in terms of timeframes.

Few questions to get views on:

• Are some of us (or many) in agreement with the policy change?
• Are there similar precedents in other countries or cities?
• How will the automotive "lobby" be reacting to this

Here is the article
https://www.hindustantimes.com/busin...569749268.html

[FrozeninTime]

Originally Posted by Shobhitsaxena

Fellow Team BHPians!

An alarming news came out today with signs of government considering no ICE vehicles in NCR. Scary part is that the article already talks in terms of timeframes.

Few questions to get views on:

• Are some of us (or many) in agreement with the policy change?
• Are there similar precedents in other countries or cities?
• How will the automotive "lobby" be reacting to this

Here is the article
https://www.hindustantimes.com/busin...569749268.html

Trust me nothing will happen except increase in RTO tax. Similar thing happened to diesel vehicles above 2 L in 2015 and we knew what happened next - diesel cars became expensive.

Govt. needs revenue it will be another excuse to increase tax to meet increased expenses towards fulfillment of election promises.

Delhi NCR is one the biggest market for Automakers contributing towards 40% of Revenue and any drastic decision will fuel drastic price increase and may even lead to slow down in Auto sector.

[Shobhitsaxena]

Originally Posted by FrozeninTime

Trust me nothing will happen except increase in RTO tax. Similar thing happened to diesel vehicles above 2 L in 2015 and we knew what happened next - diesel cars became expensive.

I would put even this in the category of draconian, but considering the past, this might be the best possible outcome for the auto enthusiasts.

I am afraid that a potential outcome could be limiting the life of even petrol vehicles to 10 years in NCR. With the NGT bans reaching Mumbai, friends in that region should also be concerned with this.

Irrespective, I don't think the alternate fuel ecosystem is ready and will be ready for this level of change even in next 2-3 years. If this happens in next 2-3 years, this might just be the demonetisation moment for automobiles. The problems its aimed at will continue to pile up and government will change the goal post.

With this, purchasing a diesel vehicle in NCR becomes an even difficult decision, almost not worth it anymore.

[Bhodrolok]

All good but why only for NCR?

Do people outside NCR especially in our pathetic cities not have to breathe? Is clean air a requirement only for our central politicians? Or no action can be taken until things are as useless as in NCR currently.

[nareshtrao]

The proposed / estimated timelines per this report is around 2030-35 for stopping sales of ICE vehicles which will still give 10 more years for them to ply. This is a long term planning document and nothing for the near future if you go through. So do not expect any changes in the next 3-4 or even 5 years.

[ac 427]

As sunil gavaskar put it.
"stupid, stupid, stupid'.

What the hell is this government thinking. First they push the Diesel agenda, then the make diesel as expenseive as Petrol, then without any infra they start peddling the electric agenda, and then without any warning they want to phase out 'petrol cars'.

I want to smoke what these guys are smoking.

best,
ac

[pgpex21_param]

Really ,I mean really , it seems like a rage bait article.

Honestly how polluting is a BS6 Petrol or diesel car in comparison to pollution caused by construction dust , factories and old commercial vehicles .

[Deamon0508]

While I have no doubts of the stupidity and incompetence of the government baabus when it comes to infrastructure planning and policy design, I somehow don't even trust Hindustan Times to have the due diligence to confirm any of these discussions. There was an April Fools' click-bait-y article by <a blogpost-like website, I think Motor Octane> that talked how the transport minister wants to remove ICE vehicles in the next 5 years or so, and 70% through the article declares it to be an April Fools' prank. And some portion of my nagging brain tells me that somebody was lazy at Hindustan Times (or their source, who knows).

Here's the source that is quoted by Hindustan Times on Economic Times

The funny (and resultantly sad) part is that our policy makers have a myopic vision of dealing with issues, I'm sure that because the general taxpayer is the lowest hanging ball to kick, these things get handed to us on a platter. The government will discuss that ICE's will be phased out but wouldn't give a damn on if the pollution was actually solved.

Hypothetically, if every car in NCR was to be magically changed to an EV

1. Do we have the grid to support that? Or are we planning a substantial investment to upgrade our distribution network? Or are we expecting people to take in additional power cuts as their bid to contribute to nation building?
2. How do myriad houses in congested Delhi lanes charge vehicles that are double parked on public roads? Or are we planning to let people who currently kill over parking spaces, to kill over charge cable disconnections? Or are we expecting people to take in the additional financial burden of using commercial charging as their bid to nation building?
3. Do we have a robust enough renewable energy generation capacity to not shift the emissions from tail pipes to power station chimneys? Or are we expecting people to continue giving up on a few weeks of their lives every year in their bid to nation building?
4. Can the roads handle the additional kerb weight? Or are we planning to spend considerably on R&D to figure out how to make roads that can last for a few years? Or are we expecting people to continue contending with road accidents, neck/back issues, mental agony, and endless congestion as their bid to nation building?
5. Can the lower middle-class actually afford to buy a vehicle? I'm talking of the family which bought an Alto/Kwid 7-9 years ago, the strata which has now since moved to pre-owned ICE, or have they been priced out entirely? Or are we expecting people to continue lowering their expectations from life as their bid to nation building?
6. Can we secure the parts supply chain enough so as not be choked by a foreign entity? Or are we expecting our non-domestic suppliers to continue supplying us without paying a heed to geopolitics, as their bid to build our nation?

There's just an utter lack of thought (or communication to the public, if there has been a thought) before either the government or the news outlets come up with such half-baked measures or news.

One more thing I want to get off my chest, I remember that 20 years ago; while reading newspapers, I used to see how Chinese cities were almost always at the top of the most polluted cities, and they cleaned their act up really well I'd say.

[Shobhitsaxena]

Originally Posted by nareshtrao

The proposed / estimated timelines per this report is around 2030-35 for stopping sales of ICE vehicles which will still give 10 more years for them to ply. This is a long term planning document and nothing for the near future if you go through. So do not expect any changes in the next 3-4 or even 5 years.

While "all" of this might have a longer term timeframe, but there could be more short term impacts as build up to it, such as limiting the life of petrol vehicles, even more taxation. Hope there is more sensible approaches being considered to solve the menace that pollution is.

Originally Posted by pgpex21_param

Really ,I mean really , it seems like a rage bait article.

Honestly how polluting is a BS6 Petrol or diesel car in comparison to pollution caused by construction dust , factories and old commercial vehicles .

Hope your rage bait hypothesis is true and they are testing the reaction, though there are more formal ways to do that, instead of a press article (like talk to people in the industry, FGDs, etc)!

[guptad42]

One time cut-off deadlines like 2030 or 2035 are too abrupt. It is better to prepare customers and industry for the transition by gradually making petrol and diesel vehicles less attractive, and improving EVs.

1. Gradually rising taxation on ICE-only petrol/diesel vehicles, with a published calendar enshrined in law, so vehicle makers can plan. It can start with 5% of invoice value at the time of registration. Increase the tax rate to 10% next year and then raise it by 10% points every year till 2040. Assuming we start in 2026 with 5%, it will reach 40% by 2030, 90% by 2035.

2. Legally set aside this money as a Transport Electrification Fund. Use it to increase adoption of EVs for cars and local delivery/light commercial vehicles, and CNG-electric hybrids for heavy commercial vehicles. No mingling of funds with general pool.

3. Use the Transport Electrification Fund mainly for infrastructure, less for individual EV purchase incentives. Advertise it.

• incentive on 7KW+ bidirectional chargers and cabling
• incentives for utilities to upgrade local distribution grid for bidirectional power flows, time of day metering, and VPP (virtual power plant) grid management systems
• Add home battery incentives to existing home solar incentives. Target minimum 4-hour worth of electricity storage.
• Incentives for remote community solar projects, and transmission lines from there to consumption centres. Low minimum limit of ~100KW, so even a housing society can have a captive solar power plant.
• Mandatory low tariffs from all utilities in NCR for off-peak EV charging, incentives for feeding back power to the grid during peak demand (using the bidirectional chargers). Remove EV charging units from increasing rate slabs used for domestic electricity billing.

Nationally:

4. Start collecting and increasing fines under CAFE norms based on real life driving conditions. Push vehicle makers to offer a choice of EVs and CNG-electric hybrids priced to sell.

5. Batteries still need energy density improvement and lower costs to work in Heavy Commercial Vehicles. Instead, focus on CNG-electric hybrid HCVs for the next 5-7 years. Most of the diesel vehicle pollution happens while accelerating from slow speeds. Plug-in hybrids can cut HCV fuel consumption by ~40%, lowering operating costs and pollution. Somewhere around 2032-3035, switch policy preferences to BEVs based on assessment of battery costs and energy density.

[LongDrives]

Man! This decision will surely squeeze the desi companies that are in no mood to invest in Hybrids. People are still reluctant to embrace EVs due to scanty charging infrastructure and fear long distance drive with them, as a result the sales are on a slow pace. So, if implemented, desi companies will have to quickly adopt Hybrids.

[su1978]

i do not use train/flights to commute to my hometown which is over 1100 kms one side as my schedules are really tight and i cannot plan in advance. Secondly, considering the fact that it will be almost twice as costly plus the extra time that i will be needing. All put together, it is not at all feasible for me buy an EV.

Secondly, even though i stay in NCR(Faridabad), the power situation here is worse than some of the remotest locations of our country. How do i charge my vehicle at home? Even on highways, where is the charging infrastructure? Through out the highway that i travel, there are 2 charging stations only. Or i take a detour every 300 kilometers. The distance i cover in 16 hours will take me much longer. When our transport minister travels in a Kia Karnival at the speed of 140 on a stretch which has a maximum speed of 120, what can one expect from such a moron. How can the same ruling party be any different? Especially with sarkaari babus who have little sense about anything happening around them, it is impossible that they give anything a proper rationale.

Rather than identifying the grey spots which are major bottlenecks, banning the registration seems to be totally a kneejerk reaction.

Our ministers use the laal batti vehicles. With police vehicles in front and behind to push the traffic and make way for these unwanted maggots. How can we even expect them to be aware about the practical problems being faced by general public.

Thirdly, with such crowded localities, how can one expect the public to bring the vehicles to their homes for charging. There are streets where taking a two-wheeler is difficult. How can one even think about 100% electrification.

Fourthly, with this type of attitude, does the government want people to start using bullock carts.

[vamsi.vadrevu]

Originally Posted by Bhodrolok

All good but why only for NCR?

Do people outside NCR especially in our pathetic cities not have to breathe? Is clean air a requirement only for our central politicians? Or no action can be taken until things are as useless as in NCR currently.

I don't think this is being done with the intent to reduce air pollution. If that were the true intent, they'd go after crop burning and various industries that release effluents in the air. In fact, transportation trucks account for more pollution than private vehicles. They won't go after that source either. Private car owners are an easy target and it looks like they're doing something for the pollution, while the real sources are left untouched. Even if the rule passes and is enforced, we'd so no improvement in air quality.

Perhaps the side effect of this rule would be increased charger infra? Although that's still speculative. As a knock on effect, other states might want to enforce this rule too. Government gets lots of revenue from new electric car sales and it looks good on paper to show percentage of electrification.