[ferrarirules]

Preface - Teambhp has a lot of data captured over the years. Monthly dispatches by all the manufacturers selling cars in India is one of the important data points available. So I thought why not analyze this data to bring out some meaningful trends and see how Indian automobile sector has shaped in the last 10 years from 2014 to 2024 (2024 - Q1-Q3).

Points of Analysis - I have analyzed the following points

1. 10 years market share trend for each manufacturer
2. 10 years market share trend based on the origin of each manufacturer
3. Yearly rank of each manufacturer

Before we jumping to the above points lets look into overall dispatches over the last 10 years. In last 10 years which included two covid years, the automobile sector in India grew at CAGR of 5%. The sector was struggling before Covid but post Covid growth in car sales has been stupendous.

With the context of 5% YoY CAGR growth, lets see how the various manufacturers have been doing

10 years market share trend for each manufacturer

Points to note:

• Maruti's market share has reduced from 51.7% peak to 41%. Lack of safety, lesser features and innovation as compared to other brands seem to be the reasons for the fall.
• Hyundai's market share has reduced from 17.5% to 14.5%. This is a due to competition bringing cars which are equally good but cheaper and Hyundai's high reliance on Creta (their star product).
• Tata and Mahindra have increased market share from 5% to 13% and 7.5% to 12% respectively. The reason are for this are simple - competitively priced, safety forward, feature rich products. Most of the products are targeting the SUV craze.
• Toyota has had a flat market share of 4.5% to 5% for most of the last 10 years but in last two year their market share has jumped to near 7%. All thanks to re-badged Maruti cars.
• Kia has not been around for last 10 years. After a peak market share of 6.73% in 2022, their market share is decreasing slowly and has come down to 6%. The reason can be attributed to lack of expanding product line.
• Honda market share has come down from 7% to 1.6% over the last 10 years. Reason - We have a thread (Honda India : The Way Forward)dedicated for the same, bad decision after bad decisions.
• Renault - Another player which had a peak market share of 4.5% which has reduced down to 1%. Reason can be simply attributed to lack of product pipeline.
• MG - It has been in the market for 5 years and the market share is limited to around 1.3%. A lot of it was to do with lack of investment with JSW JV this year, that issue is solved. They will be the one's to keep an eye on in the coming years.
• Volkswagen and Skoda have had a combined market share of 2% all through the last 10 years. Reason for the same have been many. Also their product pipeline is slow. Their might be some turn around round the corner as Skoda launches Kylaq.
• Nissan, Citroen and Jeep for them lesser said is better. Sub 1% percent market share for last 10 years and no signs of a change.

Now that we have seen how each manufacturer did over last 10 years, it is interesting to see how manufacturers market share varied when clubbed by their origin country

10 years market share trend based on the origin of each manufacturer

Points to note:

• Japanese manufacturers started with a market share of whopping 60%+ which has now reduced down to 50%. The slide has somewhat been arrested by Maruti and Toyota joining hands in mid 2020. Maruti has 80%+ share in the 50% market share.
• Korean manufacturers had a peak market share of 23% when Kia came to the market but since then the market share has slowly declined to 20%. Kia is losing to Toyota on dispatches this year.
• Indian manufacturers started with a measly 13% market share and now their market share has increased to 25%. They understood the consumer sentiment and came with products which were bang on for the market demand.
• European manufacturers had a peak market share of near 7% but that has dwindled to 3% over the year. All due to lack of product vision for the market they are in.
• Chinese manufacturers have been limited to 1.3% market due to geopolitical reasons.
• US manufacturers - GM, Chevrolet and Ford have all left India for good. Just didn't have the patience to understand the Indian consumer.

Finally we can see how each manufacturer ranked over the years

Yearly rank of each manufacturer

Disclaimer:
1. Data for 2024 is till Sep-2024. The numbers for 2024 will change as the last quarter completes

[Utopian]

This is awesome. Thanks for sharing. If it is not a bother, can you share the base data with me. Will DM you separately for this. I specifically wanted to check the trend change for car type and segment, esp. from hatchback to SUV and A2 to B/C.

[ferrarirules]

Originally Posted by Utopian

This is awesome. Thanks for sharing. If it is not a bother, can you share the base data with me. Will DM you separately for this. I specifically wanted to check the trend change for car type and segment, esp. from hatchback to SUV and A2 to B/C.

Sorry for that. But i took the base data from images in each December car dispatches report on team-bhp. I didn't extract the model wise data, I only extracted manufacturer wise data.

Image to excel/text is not easy when the images are watermarked

[It's Magic]

Originally Posted by ferrarirules

So I thought why not analyze this data to bring out some meaningful trends and see how Indian automobile sector has shaped in the last 10 years from 2014 to 2024 (2024 - Q1-Q3).

Nice analysis! Thanks!

If I simplify your analysis, it seems Tata and Kia have gained a lot while Honda and Maruti have lost ground in the last 10 years.

Tata improved their design language and emphasized safety, which is reflected in their sales (a jump from 5% to 13% shows this)

Although a newcomer, Kia has gained much more than many existing players, earning a 6% market share.

We have thread suggesting how Honda is going downhill and needs some urgent fixes to regain lost market share (a drop from 7% to 1.6%).

Although Maruti is still leading the charts, it's share has been impacted, and they need to analyse the reasons (a drop from 51.7% to 41%).

[UP!!!!]

Thank you for sharing these valuable insights.

The market dynamics have evolved significantly over the past decade. While Mahindra has experienced substantial growth during this period, it has nonetheless moved down by one position in the market rankings compared to 2014.

[ferrarirules]

Originally Posted by It's Magic

If I simplify your analysis, it seems Tata and Kia have gained a lot while Honda and Maruti have lost ground in the last 10 years.

You missed Mahindra, they also went from 7% to 12% and they will go further as their recent product launches have been hitting the right marks.

Also putting another perspective, number of active manufacturers by origin and their market share

Japan - 4 Manufacturers - 50% market share
India - 2 Manufacturers - 25% market share
Korea - 2 Manufacturers - 20% market share
Europe - 3 Manufacturers (counting Skoda+VW and Citroen+Jeep as one) - 3% market share
China - 1 Manufacturer - 1.3% market share

[Motorfanatic1]

Glad to see that the Indian Manufactures more than doubled the market share in past 10 years. Kudos to our ingenuity and innovation, although a lot to still achieve on the service quotient.

[Mystic]

Thanks for showing the data in a fresh perspective.

My 2 cents:

1. Indians have become patriotic and also the Indian manufacturers are becoming more efficient and effective with their cars. Hence the natural tendency to buy “Made in India” is gaining momentum.

2. Geopolitics also plays a part in the statistics. Asian manufacturers have somehow found the key to happiness for Indians as geographically Japan, Korea and India belong to Asia ( China though part of Asia still needs to find a footing due to various obvious reasons ). Europeans and Americans somehow could not get hold of the Indian consumers pulse.

3. SUV craze is somehow not going away. This clearly tells that Indians like butch looks. May be the reason for sedans are taking a back seat is because our Indian road infrastructure is work in progress and road hugging sport looking sedans will have the bottom scraped at every other unscientific speed breaker.

[It's Magic]

Originally Posted by ferrarirules

You missed Mahindra, they also went from 7% to 12% and they will go further as their recent product launches have been hitting the right marks.

I did notice Mahindra with a 5% increase, but I picked the first two, Tata and Kia, with growth of 8% and 6% respectively.

Ofcourse, Mahindra is doing very well with recent launches and has gotten much closer to the number 3 position.

[Gagan_DB]

Originally Posted by ferrarirules

Disclaimer:
1. Data for 2024 is till Sep-2024. The numbers for 2024 will change as the last quarter completes

Good data shared here. But my question is Still the waiting period of some particular Cars not decreased. Huge number of inventory pending at Car manufacturing companies as well as with some dealers but If asked they come up with waiting period of 3+ months minimum for some Cars.

[RAAHI60]

Amazing analysis and thank you for the same.

My 2 cents is that the top reason for MSIL drop in market share, perhaps, would be the abrupt pulling the plug on Diesel cars from their side.

[Elevate2024]

Originally Posted by It's Magic

Although a newcomer, Kia has gained much more than many existing players, earning a 6% market share.

We have thread suggesting how Honda is going downhill and needs some urgent fixes to regain lost market share (a drop from 7% to 1.6%).

Although Maruti is still leading the charts, it's share has been impacted, and they need to analyse the reasons (a drop from 51.7% to 41%).

1. Both Tata and Mahindra has been quite nimble and have given good VFM products which reflects in their sales, with Mahindra just getting stronger and stronger.

2. Kia had the advantage of an established brand of Hyundai which helped it to capture a good market share from day 1, also the Korean twins did not give away diesel which helped them to increase their overall market share (half of Creta/Seltos sales are Diesel, same for Venue/Sonet) and they have also upped their game in enticing the customers with all their fancy features and premium interiors

3. Honda has been missing the bus/train/Indian market pulse for far too long now and they are still playing a slow game. They have a huge fanbase which is just getting disappointed with their lack of initiative and products for Indian market. I believe they also should come in the joint partnership with Suzuki/Toyota in the future to build a supra-Japanese brand

4. For Maruti to loose market share is quite understandable as the market has moved up the value chain and they also gave away some part of their market to Toyota to get the smart hybrid technology as most of the Toyota cars being sold are rebadged Suzukis

[tbppjpr]

Originally Posted by ferrarirules

10 years market share trend for each manufacturer

Attachment 2678055

One striking observation from this graph is that the Indian manufacturers are eating up from the Japanese, Korean and European market share.

Indians are also topping the EV segment and currently the gap is huge.

But the major contributor here is Tata who are notorious for turning the things upside down in quick succession. So can not say how long they will be able to sustain their position.

Americans have completely vanished from the Indian automobile scene, four wheeler as well as from the two wheeler space. Although I am still not able to make any geopolitical guess from this development.

It will be interesting to see how the things will move in the next decade.

[Aditya_Bhp]

Originally Posted by ferrarirules

[*]Maruti's market share has reduced from 51.7% peak to 41%. Lack of safety, lesser features and innovation as compared to other brands seem to be the reasons for the fall.

The market share fell due to lack of Diesel options. Outside NCR, diesel still rules.
A compact automatic diesel hatch is what the market desires in states like Kerala, but due to lack of options, people are forced to buy half baked EVs. There is so much demand for used diesel hatches, a diesel Etios Liva or Ritz still sells for 70 to 80% of their ex-showroom prices! Infact a 6 year old used Diesel Liva will be priced more than a 2 year old Tiago EV.

[ferrarirules]

Updating the analysis with 2024 numbers

The Indian automobile sector grew at rate of 4.6% YoY. The growth slowed down as compared to the previous year. But the previous year was already a high base so growing above it was a big deal.

10 years market share trend for each manufacturer



YoY change in market share



10 years market share trend based on the origin of each manufacturer




Yearly rank of each manufacturer

Points to note:

• Japanese manufacturers - Thanks to the Toyota and Maruti collaboration, they have been able to stabilize their market share and increase it a bit. Naive Indians are happy buying rebadged Maruti products.
• Korean manufacturers - The slide of market share continues for Korean manufacturers. My opinion it is due to high reliance on few winner products.
• Indian manufacturers - The rise of "Vocal for Local" continues. Thanks to Mahindra, Indian manufacturers have now cornered 25%+ market share.
• European manufacturers see another fall in market share. It is down to 2.8% now.
• Chinese manufacturers have been limited to 1.3% market due to geopolitical reasons.