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Old 17th July 2024, 20:13   #1
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Indian Car Sales Analysis - H1 2024

The Indian market grew by 7.5% in H1-2024 and registered the highest ever half-yearly wholesales of 21,61,655 vehicles

- The average monthly volume in 2024 was 3,60,276
- 3,93,645 vehicle sales make January 2024 the best sales month in history
- Strong demand for SUV, crossover and MUV body-style products are the major growth driver in 2024.

Indian Car Sales Analysis - H1 2024-1.png

Indian Car Sales Analysis - H1 2024-2.png

Indian Car Sales Analysis - H1 2024-3.png

The early 2024 growth rate was on the higher side due to the lower base effect of 2023, which can be regarded as the tail end of the supply-side shortage phase induced by the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the month-over-month growth rate has started tapering downward as India progressed through different phases of the general election starting in April 2024. Post-election results: growth remained muted in June 2024 at 3.6%.

The decline in demand in Q2 2024 was quite widespread across the passenger car industry, as the top three luxury car makers in India also reported a muted growth rate: Mercedes (0.5%), BMW (-0.3%), and Audi (-6.5%). Seasonality does not come into play here, as it is a comparison of the same month in a different year.

Decoding growth path

Indian Car Sales Analysis - H1 2024-4.png

Growth in 2024, at its best, can be regarded as a steady state when seen over the long term, but it hasn’t returned to the pre-pandemic level.

2024: From seller’s market to buyer’s market
Quote:
Defying several macro and automotive-world-specific headwinds like high vehicle and fuel price inflation, the Indian passenger car market was driven by buyers’ sentiment, which fueled pent-up demand during the post-pandemic period. And the ensuing supply-side constraint made India largely a seller’s market for nearly three years, with a long waiting list for several products.

The future demand and growth path for the remainder of 2024 will now depend on evolving consumer sentiments, which don’t seem to be very buoyant as of now. Brands need to be cautious with pricing and dealer stock levels for the sustainability of the overall business ecosystem, especially during the upcoming festive season. Higher marketing spend at this point may not improve demand and bring higher sales growth, but a price correction and product enhancement can arrest sales fall in an unseen future
.

SUVs now command 52% of the Indian passenger vehicle market!

- SUV/Crossover body-styled products now command 52% of the Indian passenger vehicle market in H1 2024

- The hatchback segment is now reduced to mere 26% due to a shift in demand towards SUV-styled products

- The MUV segment reached 13% market share with 27% growth in H1 2024, with sedans losing ground further.

Body style market share

- SUV/Crossover body-styled products grew by 23% and now command a 52% share of the Indian market
- A shift in consumer preference led to a de-growth of hatchbacks by 17%, leading to a mere 26% market share in H1 2024

Indian Car Sales Analysis - H1 2024-5.png

- Higher sales of Toyota Innova Hycross and Maruti Ertiga moved entire MUV segment share up by 2% in H1 2024
- CNG sub-4m sedan sales have contained a steep fall in the overall sedan segment in 2024

Indian Car Sales Analysis - H1 2024-6.png

Large segments with a high growth rate:

Largest segment: ~4m Crossover (monocoque chassis)

Indian Car Sales Analysis - H1 2024-7.png

- ~4m monocoque chassis-based Crossover is now the biggest segment in India. This segment further grew by 14% in 2024 to reach a volume level of 4,19,277 units.

- Maruti is a dominant player right now with three products: Brezza, Fronx, and Taisor (with a Toyota badge), and 41% of the of the segment share.

- Tata Nexon Facelift-2 is the second-best-selling product in the segment, followed by the Hyundai Venue facelift and the recently launched Kia Sonet Facelift.

-Mahindra is trying to make a comeback in this segment with the facelifted and rebranded XUV 300 (3XO), which now has segment-first ADAS-L2 and a dual glass-pane panoramic sunroof.

-Clearly, this segment has two price spectrums. The lower spectrum is composed of products like Maruti Fronx, Toyota Taisor, Nissan Magnite, and Renault Kiger, which do not offer sunroof as of now.

Second largest segment : ~4.3m Mid-size Crossover (monocoque chassis)

Indian Car Sales Analysis - H1 2024-8.png

- ~4.3m monocoque chassis-based SUV is the second largest segment in India. This segment further grew by 17% in 2024 to reach a volume level of 2,71,052 units.

- Hyundai Creta dominates this segment ever since 2015.

-Maruti, along with Toyota’s volume, has reached closer to Creta’s segment share but has to offer huge discounts in 2024 to convert high wholesale into retail.

-Rest, everyone else is struggling under the heat of the mighty Creta ‘brand’ that it has become over a period of time, due to its all-rounded attributes!

Emerging segment – ~3.8m Small Crossover

Indian Car Sales Analysis - H1 2024-9.png

- The entry of Tata Punch in 2021 has created this sub-segment of crossover under the sub-4m category. The addition of a CNG (mid-2023) and an electric (early 2024) drivetrain has made Punch the best-selling car of 2024.

- This nascent segment grew much faster in 2024 due to the entry of the Hyundai Exter.

Source:
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Old 18th July 2024, 09:28   #2
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Re: Indian Car Sales Analysis - H1 2024

OEM wise Car Sales Analysis - H1 2024

- Mahindra (+1.7%) and Toyota (+1.6%) gained significant market share by posting 26% and 42% growth, respectively

- Besides them, every other player has lost market share

- The top six brands control 93% of the Indian passenger vehicle market.

- Maruti, Hyundai, Tata, Mahindra, and Toyota posted their best ever H1 sales in 2024

Indian Car Sales Analysis - H1 2024-1.png

- Mahindra (+1.7%) and Toyota (+1.6%) gained significant market share
- Kia (0.9%) has lost considerable market share among top players
- Renault, Skoda, Citroen, Jeep, and BYD have suffered massive de-growth in 2024

H1 2024 : Growth Champions

Mahindra Scorpio N is the major volume and growth driver for Mahindra in 2024, followed by Thar and XUV 700.

Indian Car Sales Analysis - H1 2024-2.png

-The hybrid versions of the Innova (Hycross) and Hyryder were major volume and growth drivers for Toyota in 2024.
-The new hybrid drivetrain technology has proved to be a very successful venture for Toyota in India, as the Hyryder (58% strong-hybrid mix) and Hycross hybrid (50% strong-hybrid mix) versions are doing quite well.
-Toyota now gets 47% of its sales from cross-badged Maruti products (Hyryder-Grand Vitara, Glanza-Baleno, Rumion-Ertiga, and Taisor-Fronx).
- Another collaboration strategy that turned out to be handy for Toyota to sell more cars from its showroom, and benefited its partner - Maruti, with incremental sales of existing product line with the least investment to change soft parts like the bumper, grill, headlamp, and tail lamp design, and obviously logo everywhere.

Indian Car Sales Analysis - H1 2024-3.png


The common thread here between Mahindra and Toyota is that their growth is coming from products (Scorpio N, Thar, and Innova Hybrid) in relatively higher price segments.

They didn’t take market share away from, let's say, existing segments. Rather, it is all about generating new demand, creating an uncontested market segment, and rendering the competition irrelevant by altering the value proposition.

Source: AutoPunditz
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Old 18th July 2024, 19:50   #3
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Re: Indian Car Sales Analysis - H1 2024

Is it safe to say, Toyota's MS growth has come at the expense of Maruti? Outside of OG Toyota products, if 47% or so of sales have come from rebranded MSIL products, wouldn't all those customers who picked those cars would have gone to MSIL in first place if Toyota wasn't offering the same in their showrooms?

While, Toyota's MS growth has come from lazy rebranded cars, must give it to Mahindra for innovating across segments. XUV300 was a sales disaster, but, how M&M changed into a blockbuster when they made it to 3X0! Most M&M products were having waiting period till this cool-off period kicked in just now. With the launch of Thar Armada (5 door Thar), once again, they will sit happily on pending orders for the rest of the year.

Last edited by Quicksilver85 : 18th July 2024 at 19:51. Reason: grammatical
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Old 18th July 2024, 19:51   #4
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Re: Indian Car Sales Analysis - H1 2024

Wow, fantastic thread! if we take rebadged Marutis (Taisor, Glanza, etc) and give the sales to Toyota, what differences would there be?
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Old 18th July 2024, 20:15   #5
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Re: Indian Car Sales Analysis - H1 2024

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Originally Posted by Quicksilver85 View Post
While, Toyota's MS growth has come from lazy rebranded cars, must give it to Mahindra for innovating across segments. XUV300 was a sales disaster, but, how M&M changed into a blockbuster when they made it to 3X0! Most M&M products were having waiting period till this cool-off period kicked in just now. With the launch of Thar Armada (5 door Thar), once again, they will sit happily on pending orders for the rest of the year.
Mahindra should bring back Marazzo with Petrol and CNG engine and make it stronger and get a 5 star safety rating. Im sure it will eat up at least 20% ertiga sales and 30% of Kia Carens sales and can comfortably get 5-7k sales per month.
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Old 18th July 2024, 23:19   #6
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Re: Indian Car Sales Analysis - H1 2024

Quote:
Originally Posted by Quicksilver85 View Post
Is it safe to say, Toyota's MS growth has come at the expense of Maruti? Outside of OG Toyota products, if 47% or so of sales have come from rebranded MSIL products, wouldn't all those customers who picked those cars would have gone to MSIL in first place if Toyota wasn't offering the same in their showrooms?
I think if they knew what they were buying, most of them would have saved the premium and bought the same car from Maruti for cheaper anyway. Hyrider / Grand Vitara hybrid probably can't be counted since it has a Yaris powertrain.
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Old 19th July 2024, 07:35   #7
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Re: Indian Car Sales Analysis - H1 2024

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I think if they knew what they were buying, most of them would have saved the premium and bought the same car from Maruti for cheaper anyway.
Maybe that is true in case of some people but I know quite a few people who happily paid the premium just for the badge. And the badge does matter in resale market as well if you compare the prices on the resale market for similar models with different badges.

Also personally, I prefer the grill and bumper design of Toyota cars than that of Maruti Suzuki.
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Old 19th July 2024, 07:49   #8
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Re: Indian Car Sales Analysis - H1 2024

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Originally Posted by LMOO2 View Post
Mahindra should bring back Marazzo with Petrol and CNG engine and make it stronger and get a 5 star safety rating. Im sure it will eat up at least 20% ertiga sales and 30% of Kia Carens sales and can comfortably get 5-7k sales per month.
I believe Mahindra wants to be only in SUV business. Marazzo was an MPV/MUV. I still some Marazzo on road, however most of them are yellow plates (cabs) and very few personally owned.
Even if Mahindra brings the Marazzo back, their sales team attitude will make it a disaster again. Mahindra SAs have the most easy going job, they don’t even know the car features well, dealerships don’t even keep all engine and gearbox combinations car available for test drive. When I went to test drive 3XO and asked for Diesel AMT, SA clearly said none of their showrooms have this combination available for test drive.
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Old 19th July 2024, 10:14   #9
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Re: Indian Car Sales Analysis - H1 2024

Between VW and Skoda, VW seem to have held up its ground but Skoda has lost considerable footing in the market in terms of sales. This might be the reason Skoda rejigged its Kushaq and Slavia portfolio and offered price cut also in recent times.
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Old 19th July 2024, 16:25   #10
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Re: Indian Car Sales Analysis - H1 2024

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Originally Posted by satyamkolhe View Post
Maybe that is true in case of some people but I know quite a few people who happily paid the premium just for the badge. And the badge does matter in resale market as well if you compare the prices on the resale market for similar models with different badges.

Also personally, I prefer the grill and bumper design of Toyota cars than that of Maruti Suzuki.
Is there really that much of a difference in resale? Maruti generally has pretty decent resale compared to Kia/hyundai/VAG etc
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Old 19th July 2024, 18:00   #11
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Re: Indian Car Sales Analysis - H1 2024

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Originally Posted by Cresterk View Post
Is there really that much of a difference in resale? Maruti generally has pretty decent resale compared to Kia/hyundai/VAG etc
Yes. Maruti has good resale value but Toyota has even better because of the premium image of the brand thanks to the Fortuners and Innovas. Also their service and reliability is well known.

I have not done a proper research on it, but I once saw a 2020 Baleno Alpha CVT almost 1.5 lakh cheaper than 2019 Glanza V CVT with around 15k KMs on the odo on both the cars.

The dealer just said that you need to pay a premium for it being a Toyota
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Old 19th July 2024, 18:08   #12
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Re: Indian Car Sales Analysis - H1 2024

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Originally Posted by Quicksilver85 View Post
Outside of OG Toyota products, if 47% or so of sales have come from rebranded MSIL products, wouldn't all those customers who picked those cars would have gone to MSIL in first place if Toyota wasn't offering the same in their showrooms.
Not really. I know folks who would not buy a Maruti. But have happily bought the same car from Toyota. It is about perception. It is win-win for both Maruti and Toyota as well.
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Old 30th July 2024, 09:01   #13
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Re: Indian Car Sales Analysis - H1 2024

Top 30 Selling Cars in India for H1 2024

Quote:
Performance evaluation:
Based on key parameters of PLC, a comprehensive 360⁰ evaluation method, which takes into account several key aspects to know the correct health of the product in competitive landscape.
PLC timeline : Longer PLC usually means higher discounts in later phase, successful products are exception
Discounts on offer : Manufacturer/dealer sales push indicator
Market share growth : Acceptance among customer segment
Volume growth: This need to be seen in tandem with discount
Waiting list: Proxy for quality of demand generation
Indian Car Sales Analysis - H1 2024-screenshot-20240730-085343.png

- The dominance of Maruti in the top-10 list has come down as it has only six products, followed by Tata, now with two products, Hyundai and Mahindra, with one product each
SUVs, MUVs, and crossovers are now taking over the top ranks from hatchbacks and sedans

Maruti Suzuki:

- Fronx, Ertiga, and Dzire were key volume growth drivers for Maruti in H1 2024
CNG vehicle demand in the fleet segment was a major contributor to sales of Dzire (52% mix) and Ertiga (58% mix)
- Ertiga production capacity was expanded in 2024 and it was selling with negligible discounts in 2024
- Maruti Baleno + Toyota Glanza (= 1,20,176) is the best-selling car in India from product per se
- Sales of Grand Vitara and Brezza were steady, with the former getting huge discounts in the hyper-competitive Mid-SUV segment
- All Maruti hatchbacks witnessed a drop in sales despite several promotion schemes from Maruti

Hyundai-Kia

- With a major facelift in 2024, the Hyundai Creta remains the best-performing product -
- Exter was the major volume growth driver for Hyundai, though it was under constant pressure due to Tata Punch
- Hyundai also suffered a volume drop among its hatchbacks
- Despite recent product updates, Kia lost sales as it was not offering any discount in H1 2024

Tata Motors

- The addition of CNG (33% mix) and EV (14% mix) drivetrain made Tata Punch the - best-selling car in the Indian car industry for H1-2024
- Entry of Mahindra 3XO facelift has affected sales of Tata Nexon facelift really hard in the last two months of H1 2024

Mahindra

- Scorpio N, along with the Classic version, has secured 8th position in 2024, and average sales crossed the 14,000 mark.
- Responding to market demand Mahindra took a big price cut for the top-end AX7 version of the XUV 700
- Thar continues to grow further in 2024

Toyota

- Strong-Hybrid products – Innova Hycross and Hyryder - were key volume drivers for Toyota
- Innova overall has remained uncontested so far with its diesel (39%) and strong-hybrid (49%) drivetrain offerings.


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Old 30th July 2024, 10:11   #14
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Re: Indian Car Sales Analysis - H1 2024

These are great insights. I notice that there are still buyers for Diesel cars with good engine and transmission combos and where the diesel is a good choice. Maruti isn't able to sell the Hybrid Grand Vitara at all while Toyota is nailing it. The Tiago being one of the cheaper electric vehicles on sale has good sales numbers with the Electric variant making 29% of the toal sales of the Tiago lineup.
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Old 31st July 2024, 08:40   #15
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Re: Indian Car Sales Analysis - H1 2024

Electric & Hybrid Cars Sales Analysis - H1 2024

- As seen in Global Markets Hybrids outshine BEV's even in India
- 52,415 BEVs (Battery Electric Vehicle) and 51,832 HEVs (Hybrid Electric Vehicle) were sold in H1 2024
- Strong surge in Q1 BEV sales due to the introduction of the Tata Punch EV and high dispatches of the Mahindra XUV 400 before the FY 2023-24 closure to manage internal CAFE figures.
- BEV and HEV sales growth was 10% and 30%, respectively
- The market share of BEV and HEV was 2.4% of total PV sales, each
BEV sales growth was driven by a new product - Punch EV, introduced by Tata in January 2024
- Tata and Toyota continue to dominate the BEV and strong-hybrid EV markets with 69% and 86%, respectively
- Tata Punch EV was the best-selling BEV product, and Toyota Innova Hycross was the best-selling strong-hybrid EV
- Q2 witnessed a sharp decline in demand for all BEV products, despite several promotion schemes in place throughout the quarter.
- The average car sales price for BEVs is ₹ 14.1 lakhs, and for HEVs it is ₹ 25.6 lakhs

Indian Car Sales Analysis - H1 2024-screenshot-20240731-082209.png

Indian Car Sales Analysis - H1 2024-screenshot-20240731-082241.png

Indian Car Sales Analysis - H1 2024-screenshot-20240731-083353.png

- Tata remains the largest BEV maker in India, with a 69% market share
- MG has maintained a steady state by price correction and offering discounts on two products
- Toyota continues to lead HEV sales with an 86% share
- Maruti comes next, and Honda’s sales have less traction due to higher pricing

Indian Car Sales Analysis - H1 2024-screenshot-20240731-083528.png

- Entry of new crossovers has strengthened its position in BEV segment share; hatchbacks are losing again in the BEV segment too
- Currently, the HEV segment is limited by UV-dominated body styles from Toyota and Maruti

Product: Analysis and H1 2024 Updates

Indian Car Sales Analysis - H1 2024-screenshot-20240731-083635.png

- The Tata Punch EV was the best-selling BEV in 2024
Other BEV products had limited sales traction, and discounts were on the higher side
- Hyundai has discontinued Kona in India
- The Toyota Innova Hycross was the best-selling HEV in 2024, followed by the Toyota Hyryder

Link:

Last edited by volkman10 : 31st July 2024 at 08:41.
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