[pqr]

2024: Mahindra is now entering in the race for the #2 position



The fight for the #2 position has intensified in 2024, with Mahindra coming into the race driven by the super success of Scorpio N in 2023.

#2 Hyundai: No further new product iteration (new product or new generation of existing product or facelift of existing generation) is expected, except for the Alcazar facelift, mostly will be in line with the Creta facelift. However, Alcazar facelift isn’t going to be big on volume due to its small 1.5L petrol and diesel engines and poor space in the second and third rows compared to bigger competitors like the Mahindra XUV 700 and Tata Safari.

#3 Tata : Has lined up a new product in the form of the Curvv (~4.3m monocoque crossover segment) with multiple drivetrain options and a BEV version of the Harrier somewhere around the festive season. This could plausibly add 3,000-4,000 units per month towards the tail end of the year.



However, another challenge Tata is facing right now is lower than expected sales of Harrier and Safari facelift, which are back to square one. Because in the same segment, the Mahindra XUV 700 still has a better value proposition due to multiple refined and powerful drivetrain options, better in-cabin space, an equivalent list of bells and whistles at a very competitive price point, and not to forget, considerably better reliability.

#4 Mahindra: Now has a strong pipeline for 2024 and expanded production capacity at the Pune (XUV 700, Bolero, Scorpio N) and Nashik (3XO, Scorpio & Thar) plants, with ongoing expansion to reach 6 lakh units per annum. Facelift of rebranded XUV 3XO (earlier 300) is planned with 9,000 units per month for the remainder of 2024 and will be later joined by the very promising Thar 5 door version slated to be launched on 15th August 2024. Further XUV 700’s EV version could join the BEV race by the festive season.

Moreover, Mahindra earns higher revenue per car sale than the top three players due to its UV product range, which is positioned in a higher price band.

On a side note :

• Indian market is in highly consolidated state, as top 6 players still command a 93% market share.
• Skoda, Citroen, and Jeep sales are in free fall.

[Cliff9091]

The 5 Door Thar launch will be interesting to see how Mahindra prices it with its product portfolio in mind. The Scorpio-N upon launch I thought will cannibalize the sales of the XUV700 but it did not dent the sales of the 700. I don't think so the same can be said for the 5 door Thar, it surely will eat into 4x4 Scorpio-N sales. Eagerly waiting to see how M&M's pricing, marketing and product positioning plays out with the Thar 5 door.

Great analysis as usual pqr !!

[Carma2017]

I do not think that TATA will be in the situation as predicted. TATA has an enviable line up of announced and unannounced vehicles that they have or may not have disclosed in totality including new CNG variants etc. On the contrary, I think TATA will now push harder towards beyond #2 as their EV variants start gaining more traction, due to government lack of action in hybrids and improved charging network.

Also, I do not believe that Mahindra 5-Door Thar will draw significant volumes. It just doesn't have the Swag of a 3-Door version. At best it can cannibalise the Scorpio-N.

If it does happen the way @pqr has predicted, then it will be a shocker.

[FiatDiesel]

Between Tata and Mahindra, I will put my money on latter any day as it does have better quality products with multiple & fantastic drivetrains. In our forum, have not heard negative feedback and with latest launch of 3XO, it has registered in mind of buyers as serious option to be considered.
I was literally tempted to buy 3XO despite no immediate need, finally head ruled over heart. My hearts strings don’t get pulled in similar way for any of the Tata launches. Somehow I feel TaMo has lost out on engineering front with lack of engines and quality while evaluation of products in Mahindra stable reflects there commitment to Indian consumer needs and of enthusiasts. XUV700, Scorpio N, 3XO, Bolero including NEO and mighty Thar with gem of mHawk diesel and most powerful petrol without any horror stories make me proud.

[GTO]

Beautiful analysis, thanks for sharing!

- What's most & more important is Mahindra's average-selling-price per car. It only has SUVs, Crossovers & UVs on sale and hence, Mahindra's average ticket price is higher than compatriots. Mahindra tried their hand at hatchbacks & sedans, then realised their core competence is UVs, so ditched the cheaper cars altogether.

- Equally, because Mahindra doesn't sell too many sub-4 meter cars, I don't think they will overtake Hyundai or Tata. At least not consistently.

- This growth in 2024 is also from the release of pent-up demand. Example, there were long waiting periods for the XUV700, but the backlog has been cleared.

- Next hit is the 4-door Thar. Although I do think it's going to take some Scorpio-N customers away. XUV700 is getting long in the tooth and desperately needs a facelift.

Mahindra is doing a fantastic job with SUVs & Crossovers. From the 3XO to the Thar, and the Scorpio-N to the XUV700, they all really impress. IMHO, Mahindra should take another shot at the MPV segment. The Marazzo was a fantastic van which failed due to poor product management, rather than the car itself.

[Cliff9091]

Originally Posted by GTO

Beautiful analysis, thanks for sharing!

XUV700 is getting long in the tooth and desperately needs a facelift.

IMHO, Mahindra should take another shot at the MPV segment. The Marazzo was a fantastic van which failed due to poor product management, rather than the car itself.

The XUV500 was launched in 2011 with the same hype and craze as the 700, the 500 got its first facelift in 2015 which addressed all the major issues of the pre facelift and much more sobered down front fascia.

Judging by Mahindra's trend the need to give the 700 a proper facelift in 2025-26 if they want to retain the current market share it holds. Features like ventilated seats, auto dimming IRVM as standard, petrol AWD will make it an even better value proposition.

Also Mahindra should seriously evaluate and consider a 1.5 diesel XUV700, at that price point it can get a good share of the Creta-Seltos-Taigun segment as well, and by no means is that engine underpowered.

[rakesh_r]

Originally Posted by GTO

- Next hit is the 4-door Thar. Although I do think it's going to take some Scorpio-N customers away. XUV700 is getting long in the tooth and desperately needs a facelift.

Two days back had gone to the Mahindra Showroom with a friend. They already had couple of Z8s readily available, even one Z8 D AT 4x4. I guess similar is applicable for the XUV-700. I think lot of Customers are sitting on the fence and waiting for the Thar 5D. Moreover I did see couple of 3XOs being delivered.
In fact I am seeing couple of folks ready to trade in their Scorpios for the Thar 5D. I think the the Thar 5D will be a instant hit.

[Venkatesh]

Mahindra, Tata and Hyundai sales in the month of May 2024 with YoY comparison.

Mahindra



Tata



Hyundai

[Kosfactor]

Make exciting products that people can buy and volumes will come eventually.

If M&M chase volumes like it once did - it would be a disaster. They cannot become a Maruti when Maruti themselves are finding it difficult.

With Mr Velu at the driving seat - I hope they make the right call.

[AProf]

Originally Posted by pqr

2024: Mahindra is now entering in the race for the #2 position

[/i][/list]

Nice analysis.
However, IMO, unless Mahindra fixes the following, it is unlikely that they will become #2:
1. Responsive dealers / show rooms personnel. The brand loyalists / fans should not be taken for granted.
2. Improved after-sales service and associated change in perception.
3. Enhancement in the production capacity of 3XO to something like 12,000-14,000 with reduced waiting period.
4. One more product under sub 4m segment, i.e., in the 3.8 m segment, to compete against Punch / replacement for KUV100 (but not that ugly ).

[ads11]

Think GTO highlights a good point. Given all their products are in the UV segment and thus command a price premium, Mahindra get higher profits per unit. Are they really That bothered about chasing the overall #2 spot in market share given they're already probably generating healthy profits. I mean of course they'll want more of said profits. But it feels like for a lot of manufacturers it seems chasing the raw volumes alone isn't the primary goal anymore.

Also would like to point out that I agree with GTO about the Marazzo. Over Christmas got to ride in one as a replacement for our hire Innova Crysta and was pleasantly surprised by how nice the Marazzo was. Third row comfort was miles ahead of the Toyota. Seems a shame because it's a really well packaged product. Could use someone giving Toyota a bloody nose in that segment.

Great thread pqr!

[itra]

Could this also mean Hyundai could potentially drop to #4? Their current portfolio is at its peak in terms of sales, and I don't think they have any new mass market launches in the pipeline. While Tata and Mahindra have a good set of launches coming in, especially in the EV segment.

[GS2323]

IMO, Tata will be the long term no. 2 in the Indian market for the following reasons:

1. The Sanand plant is now operational, Tata's capacity will increase by 300k - this can lead to better value offerings (within the existing product line-up like what Maruti is doing - reduction in AMT prices, dream editions for K10, S-Presso & Celerio) as pressure of volumes increases, specially considering how fast Tata has hiked the prices of Nexon in the last 2-3 years which would have given them some buffer by now

2. Upcoming Curvv SUV will operate in the high volume SUV-Mid segment - 5k/months seems like the minimum it will be able to do

3. Tata is still milking the 1.2L NA on the Punch so I believe they still have not been able to fully milk the demand as yet, in the future, we can see addition of a turbo engine (Hope they do not call it the RACER this time) and other sorts of variant addition/deletion like we have seen in the case of Nexon & Altroz recently once the pressure for volumes mount

For Mahindra, we will not be seeing addition of a major volume product soon - Thar 5-dr will not add significant volume considering the major chunk of the buyer will be drawn from Thar 3-dr & ScorpioN customers & their SUV-mid offering is nowhere in the sight as of yet.

In Hyundai's case too, no new major volume players in the pipeline - they will replace the Venue with a new model next yr., however, that is unlikely to add major volumes considering how competitive that space is.

[mizu]

Originally Posted by AProf

Nice analysis.
3. Enhancement in the production capacity of 3XO to something like 12,000-14,000 with reduced waiting period.

Do they really need to? We are yet to see how many consistent bookings does the 3XO get.

They sure crossed 50k booking in the first 30 minutes, but there is no news of crossing any other milestones yet.

Also, it always works out in favour of the company to have a bit of "demand" for the car.

[007 Bond]

I think TATA will generate enough gap between them & Mahindra as alteast we have few launches from them this year which shall give them volumes.

They have lined up CURVV EV followed by Harrier EV after that petrol harrier safari curvv. also the CNG line up.

this shall give them additrional 1o to 12 K diiference brtween them & Mahindra & take them to pole 2 postion.