[GTO]

I'd posted this on the Trivia thread in Jan '24:

Originally Posted by GTO

Here's some trivia = I think Q4 2023 (October to December) was the only quarter that didn't see a single all-new car model launch. We only saw facelifts & the like.

On the other hand, the motorcycle world has been on fire .

Unfortunately, Q1 2024 was no different. Other than Facelifts, Variants & EV versions, the all-new nameplates we reviewed last were the Honda Elevate & C3 Aircross back in August 2023!

Since then, we've mainly been reviewing variants, facelifts, ATs, EV versions & a bunch of premium cars (BMW X1, BYD Seal)...the last of which carry very low relevance in terms of market reach or sales volumes due to their 50-60 lakh price.

Am surprised we've seen no all-new nameplate in the mainstream segments for almost a year!

Take a look at our Official Reviews, sorted by date:

Gurkha 5-Door
Wrangler Rubicon Facelift
BYD Seal (premium, low relevance)
Creta N-Line
Tigor CNG
GLA Facelift
C3 Aircross AT
Punch EV
Creta Facelift
Sonet Facelift
BMW X1 (premium, low relevance, not an all-new nameplate)
Safari & Harrier Facelifts
Magnite AMT
EQE SUV (1.5 crore car)
Compass 4x2 AT
Nexon EV / Facelift
C40 Recharge
Gloster Blackstorm
GLC
C3 Aircross
Elevate

[Carpainter]

I think one of the main reasons being manufacturers are busy making EVs these days and are not looking at new models or even new generation for sometime now. Like how the Amaze has been so long in the market but no new facelift or new generation is on the horizon. Same for Compass, Ciaz etc. to name a few. Toyota has stopped making new cars except the Hycross and all their cars are mostly rebadged Suzukis. Same for Honda with only 3 models up for sale and two of which are already looking old now. Some cars that I can think of that will get facelift or new generation are Swift, Dzire and Fortuner.

I think our market has stagnated a little here. Even some of the facelifts are carrying polarizing looks like those from Tata, Mahindra, Hyundai etc. I have a sparingly used 9 years old City and I don't see any car today even below 25 lakh bracket that can replace it for another 10 years. I really miss those D segment sedans.

I just don't know why atleast Asian companies like Honda and Toyota don't launch their whole south East Asian range of models here. They launch so many variants in countries like Thailand, China, Malaysia etc but only a couple of models here in India with much bigger volume. I don't know how selling say 100 units of 2 models is more profitable than say selling 10 units of 10 different models each. They already share their platform and equipment but multiple models keep the customers happy and help retain a customer longer. I just don't understand their mathematics here.

[CentreOfGravity]

You're right. And with upcoming launches like the Toyota Taisor, Mahindra XUV3XO (launched recently), Altroz Racer, Nexon CNG, Thar Armada and Magnite facelift, we're gonna see more variants and facelifts.

However, the future isn't entirely bleak. We'll have all new models like the Maruti Swift, Dzire, Citroën Basalt and Tata Curvv in the near future and cars like the Maruti EVX, Mahindra BE range, Kia Clavis and EV9, Renault Duster and its Nissan counterpart later on. The period so far may have been boring, but the future seems exciting

[Samba]

My hunch is, manufacturers are not clear about the future of cars. Whether the Indian govt will emphasize higher ethanol petroleum, EV or Hybrid or Hydrogen fuel, or even a diesel engine with some new emission norm!

Till they get clarity, they are playing safe and updating the current models and engines rather than investing in a whole new model or engine.

The positive part is, that some of the facelifts are worth it, the changes are substantial, not just mere cosmetic changes. Till the manufacturers get clarity about the future these facelifts are welcome.

[GTO]

In comparison, the preceding 12-months (July '22 to June '23) were much better for customers & the Indian car scene.

We saw many all-new nameplates, market positions & all-new generation launches.

Hyundai Exter
Toyota Innova Hycross & Maruti Invicto
Maruti Jimny
MG Comet
Maruti Fronx
Next-gen Hyundai Verna
Hyundai Ioniq 5 (expensive, but way more relevant & known than the BYD Seal)
XUV400 EV
BYD Atto3
Toyota Hyryder & Maruti Grand Vitara (including hybrids)
All-new Alto K10
All-new Hyundai Tucson
All-new Maruti Brezza
Mahindra Scorpio-N

[SmartCat]

Most cars sold by manufacturers have a lifecycle of 6 to 8 years, before being replaced by a new model. Perhaps coincidentally, last year was such that no new model was due for replacement. Or perhaps introduction of new models have been delayed by X months due to internal issues (rather than market outlook). After all, development of a new model has a longish gestation period.

[Axe77]

Perhaps we should also see this as cyclical? We’re a market where we have really have only 5 major / volume manufacturers (Maruti, Tata, Mahindra and Korean siblings) with even Toyota and Honda operating on the fringes and the many others brands sitting below even those two. So first and foremost its a consequence of the market having a relative lack of depth and range to start with in the volumes segment.

Seeing the high number of launches in June 2022 - 2023, perhaps its not unusual that there were relatively less number in the following 12 months and its only by 2025 / 26 might see an uptick? I’m referring to mainstream models here of course - the sub 30 - 40 lakh segment - cars need to run their ordinary course life cycle out and maybe we’re seeing a bunching up where such updates are not immediately due.

My back of the envelope sense is the next wave of launches will come around 2025 - 26, which will see a mix of EVs and strong hybrids being offered respectively. Of course regular end of life cycle updates will continue in ICE too but the former is where perhaps the action will pivot to.

The shift in dynamics between EVs and strong hybrids is also relatively recent so I do expect a slight lull before manufacturers figure out how they want to focus their strategy and energy. We’re already seeing mainstay players like Hyundai, who had previously declared ambitious EV plans, now also speaking of a parallel strong hybrid strategy too. These kind of strategy shifts will also impact roll out timelines to account for the necessary lead in time.

[YD14]

I think it is because of the dominance of small crossovers in the market. The SUV market from 8L to 25L is where most of the sales are and almost all the manufacturers already have models covering every inch of this space. Just look at Hyundai, it already has Exter, Venue, Creta and Alcazar so they will of course not launch a new model but keep updating these four. Most of the new launches we are about to see are from manufacturers whose SUV portfolio is not complete like VAG's sub 4m crossover and Tata's Creta rival Curvv. Other than this I think we will only see EVs being released.

Manufacturers are not confident about experimenting with new segments and idea and that I think is something rather sad.

[Sensible_Speed]

I think new-nameplate models require a lot more investment upfront these days, and manufacturers think they're more trouble than what it's worth. Also, the public in general, is gravitating towards the more visible brands and their offerings. A majority can only afford a single vehicle and would like to play it safe. This reflects in the top 10 bestsellers being mostly older models from Maruti and only a Hyundai and Tata or two to keep them company. What would probably help is an outright liberation of the market from an R&D front to help infuse fresh ideas and concepts into the segment and try to build public support for innovation.

However, the recent spur of launches and reveals, even if only for facelifts, is welcoming as it indicates that manufacturers are putting in the effort to keep with the times. There used to be a time when we only saw a new model or facelift every ten years or so.

[Hayek]

Think we will see several EVs being launched by players such as Tata Motors and Mahindra in the next 18 months. And perhaps Hyundai / Kia will bring in more E-GMP based vehicles too. While VW / Skoda will bring MEB products in.

In short, the bulk of the vehicle launches over the next 18 months would be EVs. I don’t see any manufacturer including Toyota and Suzuki developing ground up new ICE platforms. It does not make sense when ICE products probably have less than 10 years left before they become a tiny minority in most of the developed world (bar perhaps the USA). And North American products will not be relevant for the Indian market.

[Livnletcarsliv]

3 main and significant reasons that I see are
1. Economic slowdown even globally. Even China, Japan, Germany are not in good shape economically.
2. Elections. Since the entire country is in the election fever, approvals and the government procedures will be slower than ever. In fact, many of the big economies and most of the populous countries in the world are going for elections this year.
3. Main stream brands like Maruti, Tata, M&M, Hyundai & Kia are all in various stages of development of alternates to ICE. For eg - EVs. So launching more and more ICE models will not be appropriate given the government stance and policy changes (for ICE, Hybrid and EV vehicles) after the elections based on which government takes charge. So OEM's may want to hold their horses till the new government settles down irrespective of the party.

[svsantosh]

Primary Reason : The Main driver behind this trend is the high taxation of the industry as such. It takes a long time to recover tool and dye making charges, assembly line costs

Second : Average Indian car buyer minds are difficult to understand.

Take an easy to understand and a valid recent example

Maruti Jimny - latest launch and below par, bordering flop levels. Maruti being a large corporate can digest it, reposition the car and bring it to decent levels. How can a corporate write off such large investments.

Such horror corporate stories make the brand to reinvent with just new decals, facelifts, CNG, EVs, etc etc and keep milking the existing assembly line and sub-vendors and the spares industry too.

[Mystic]

Sometimes I feel that ignorance is a bliss. Now a days after I am retired I sit on the beach road of Visakhapatnam with buddies with whom I was sitting for the past 5 decades in the same place. Most of my gang are petrolheads and our ONLY topic of discussion is watch the cars going on beach road and discuss ( This reminds of a philosopher who said long back that he comes to the streets to see on how many things we have invented which we don't really require ). Our spouses prefer to sit a little away from this gang as they have no clue on what we are talking.

One day we saw 3 white cars back to back, Porsche panamera, Range Rover sport and Tata Harrier. We were discussing as petrol heads on how the first 2 cars are 1+ crores and the 3 rd car is a fraction of the first two but looks equally majestic. I asked my wife if she has any views on the 3 cars. She said that all 3 cars look same like big ships and do we have really space for them to park on the beach road. She loves our little yellow Jimny which is the hottest looking car by non petrol heads on the beach road that many take selfies.

I personally feel that we are being spoilt with a huge choice in automobiles and we have reached a saturation point and we cannot comprehend the variants any more even for petrolheads. The automobile companies are churning out millions of cars and there is no more excitement anymore to an all new model launches which we look forward to ( like Thar which had a huge emotional aspect to the launch ).

We have no more great innovations happening in automotive sector which we all look forward to launches anymore. The launches happen mechanical and routine. Everyone compares on how the new model is copied from some other model etc.

I wish and hope that the new generation gets excited about the new launches just like the way we did couple of decades back for e.g launch of Maruti 800 and discussing hours on how efficiently the car was designed by Japanese etc.

[Rajjaiswal92]

IMO these might be the reasons
Covid Impact- During the FY 20-21 & 21-22 covid had a huge impact, in all business processes like manufacturing, marketing, research etc. Some models for sure would have missed their desired timeline and would have launched in the next FY that is 22-23.
Exit of prominent manufacturers- Some prominent manufacturers like Ford have exited our market who would have launched new models like the Endeavour, Eco sport etc.
unclear policies- The government isn’t clear about what they want to go forward with as of now maybe a higher mix of ethanol based fuel, more and aggressive subsidies on strong hybrid or full fledged push for EV.
All these factors combined must be keeping manufacturers busy and hesitant.

[AZT]

How big is our car market. Would any new launches meaningfully bump profits for any manufacturer or be a point of diminishing marginal returns. Price sensitivity definitely plays a big part.

From a long term trend, are people being more open to used cars with that sector becoming more organized. Are people holding on to cars longer. Manufacturers have access to a lot more data and my guess would be these are some of the reasons new ICE launches have slowed down.