[jonesanto]

I own two cars now, old Innova and 2020 Fortuner AT.

I use Innova for city runs (yes, you heard it right) and Fortuner for highway runs. Few days back while picking up my son back from school (six years old), he asked why this car (Innova) is not AT like our other car? I explained him why and the next question was, when it is time for him to start driving, is it really necessary to learn stick or AT will do?

This got me thinking, I remember reading, in Kerala, not sure about other states, if you have AT, you can still take that car for driving license test and get a license.

So, in 10 years down the line, do you think a 18 or 20 year old would be interested in manual shift and more interestingly, would you actually buy a new manual car 10 years down the line?

Share your thoughts.

[locusjag]

Nassim Nicholas Taleb's minority rule comes to mind - https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-...y-3f1f83ce4e15

The most intolerant wins - The dictatorship of the minority

A Kosher (or halal) eater will never eat nonkosher (or nonhalal) food , but a nonkosher eater isn’t banned from eating kosher.

A disabled person will not use the regular bathroom but a nondisabled person will use the bathroom for disabled people.

Someone with a peanut allergy will not eat products that touch peanuts but a person without such allergy can eat items without peanut traces in them.

Another example: do not think that the spread of automatic shifting cars is necessarily due to the majority of drivers initially preferring automatic; it can just be because those who can drive manual shifts can always drive automatic, but the reciprocal is not true

Let's stretch the Kosher example a bit from above; you and I, as non Semitic folks, would nonchalantly consume it if we were in the US or Europe today. Whereas, a Semitic person would only ever consume Kosher food. This is why it makes sense for manufacturers and retailer to ensure that most (if not all) fresh juice FMCG CKUs stocked on supermarket shelves in the Western world are Kosher.

Back to the topic of automatic versus manual transmissions
I've heard tell of manual transmissions being prevalent in the US in the past decades. 10% of cars sold in 2000 in the US were stick shift, whereas it's estimated to be a paltry 2% today. In the 1990s, 1980s etc., stick shifts were supposed to have been pretty common.

What I was told by an American gentleman is this - those who drove stick shift in their younger days several decades ago no longer wanted to be bothered by a manual transmission as they got old. They still needed to move around and live their lives despite being 60+ years old. And it is this older population's intransigent preference for automatic transmissions that got the automotive industry to simply up the proportion of automatics. Those who could drive with manual transmissions didn't mind driving an automatic. And this rolling stone has gathered much mass and has rolled over the stick shift in the US automotive market today.

That's the tale that I would expect to play out in other less matured markets such as in India. If you think of car driving population as personas; today's young drivers will be a radically different persona when they age. The existence of stick shifts will depend of this persona in my opinion.

[jonesanto]

Originally Posted by locusjag

Today's young drivers will be a radically different persona when they age. The existence of stick shifts will depend of this persona in my opinion.

Exactly, my answer to him was, it does not hurt to know how to drive a stick, so you learn both.

[shankar.balan]

Originally Posted by jonesanto

So, in 10 years down the line, do you think a 18 or 20 year old would be interested in manual shift and more interestingly, would you actually buy a new manual car 10 years down the line?

Share your thoughts.

Attachment 2466845

Look at the numbers of Manual Transmission vs AT vehicles sold to consumers in India in 2008 and look at the same comparison in 2023.

This should give you as clear an answer as you are likely to get.

Another thing, from what Im told, the new generation prefers experiences to ownership and possession. And I believe they arent particularly enamoured about owning a vehicle, when there is an Uber just a click or three away, which enables them to get where they want to go, and yet play with their mobiles at the same time.

[rsidd]

In 10 years EVs will dominate and they are gearless.

[GhostGrid]

With various types of Automatics, EVs, and ADAS on the market, manual shifting will undoubtedly decrease, but many automobile enthusiasts still like or will favor manual shifting, so it may continue to exist in niche markets.

Also, every individual's health situation will play a significant role. I used to believe that I would never switch to automatic, but it appears that my legs and back are giving up after every long ride and begging me to purchase a new automatic.

[ashutoshb]

Future of manual shift after 10 years?

As long as there is a demand for budget-friendly cars, I can imagine the manual transmission to be present, at least as an option.

Unless, the cost of ATs come down, or MTs go expensive or when the market is 100% EV.

US is a different market. Average new car price there is around 40 lakhs vis a vis India, where its around 10 lakhs.

There is still a long time for all our two-wheeler owners to afford a new car and its daily running expenses. And I don't see it happening in the next ten years.

[V.Narayan]

80 years ago almost all cars had the double clutch* system. Today I believe none do. This is the march of change for great safety, convenience and ease. Once ordinary non-enthusiastic drivers such as me get used to automatic transmissions going back to manual is a pain and a deep inconvenience. Other than a few diehard enthusiasts I doubt with the coming of EVs and strong hybrids if manual transmissions will survive except in racing or adventure cars.

*Double clutch was common in non-synchromesh gears of the 1940s and earlier where clutch push 1 was to move to neutral and then clutch push 2 was used for moving to the desired gear. Specialist earth moving vehicles, very heavy trucks & mobile cranes use this today. I doubt any car does.

[RollinWheels]

I would always opt for a manual but I do accept the vast majority doesn't think that way. Going by the trend I personally experience, automatics are the future.

Because,

1) The future belongs to EVs.
2) Majority of the cars/trims are available with an automatic gearbox today. And, I believe the price difference between MT and AT are decreasing today? not sure though.
3) The ever growing amount of vehicles on the road causing bumper to bumper traffic for which automatic is a life saver for most folks.

[raptor_diwan]

With the continuously increasing overpopulation, it is becoming increasingly challenging to drive manual cars. Future generation might not be as interested in manual cars, even die-hard manual fans are transitioning to automatic transmissions.

Some argue that manual cars offer full control, but in city driving, the need for frequent downshifting is not common, and comfort takes precedence over status.

Even now, many people continue to use manual cars primarily due to budget constraints rather than a genuine preference for manual transmission.

[fhdowntheline]

If my Tiago had a torque convertor, it would be the best thing. If it had a CVT, it would be still ok. But it has neither, so I chose manual over AMT. It can be slightly irritating in stop go traffic, but at least I dont have to blame a system for the head nods. It seems a lot of people are taking up AMT as a choice, but it isnt the most pleasurable as a driver. As things progress, we may see BEV, PHEVs at lower price points so the AMT will also die a natural death along with manual.

[Bala02]

It's inevitable that one day, automatic cars will surpass their manual counterparts in popularity. Who knows, we might even witness AI-driven vehicles within the next 50 years. When I recently purchased a new car, some of my friends were perplexed by my decision to stick with the manual variant. They asked, "Why not go for the automatic? It's so much more convenient!" But for me, driving is an art of pure passion, and I enjoy every moment behind the wheel, especially during highway journeys with less traffic. The choice between manual and automatic has never been a moral dilemma; it's simply a matter of savoring the driving experience. And so, my left leg, on instinct, searches for the clutch whenever I drive a friend's automatic car ��

In India, we tend to hold onto our traditions, and our love affair with manual transmissions is deeply rooted. Suddenly switching over to automatics can seem like a daunting leap, and it's understandable that the adaptation will be slow. We Indians like the fuel efficiency, the frugality and the price discount that comes with the manual variant. The transition to automatic transmissions will undoubtedly happen, but not on my watch!

As long as I have a say in the matter, I'll continue to embrace the joy of shifting gears and releasing clutch and involvement that a manual transmission brings.��

[Nitthari]

Valid thread. I believe the future is gas less, driver less and obviously gear-less too. Irrespective of EV/Hybrid/Hydrogen or not MT will also be history. But my worry is about some of our home-grown companies (read Maruti/Suzuki) thinking out of the box and introduce an MT even in an EV, though I sincerely hope not. With technology progressing at breakneck speed, the transition even for 2 wheeler owners to an AT will be swift if that is the only option available in the market.

But MTs will still continue to be around as vintage cars, for traditionalists and for people who still believe in the stick.

[svsantosh]

Steam cars (filling coal & water) gave way to ICE Cars with just one fuel

Column shift cars (hand up! if you have driven/ridden one) gave way to floor shift (dash shift too)

Standard H Manual gave way to AMT/Auto

MRCBT/Rack&Pinion gave way to Hydraulic power assist/Electrical Assist steer

Hand signals to Indicators

Manual park to Auto-park

Brake (or Crash) to Auto Brake assist (Tesla)

Driver to autonomous...E-Car & Hydrogen...

The future is looking good. Enjoy todays tech while it lasts.

This day is not very far...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-LUb-W30Tc4

[Livnletcarsliv]

Need/demand is the father of invention/reformation. In fact, with the advent of AMTs, iMTs, 2 speed transmissions (EVs) and with the technological advancements in road safety & vehicle safety, features, functionalities, etc, the future of manual transmission will 100% have a minuscule demand. Even today, cars over 30L+ in India are fully automatic. And I guess the number of automatics sold will be more than manual between 11L-30L. So it is just a matter of time before automatics take over the manuals <10L and most likely manual transmissions will be limited to niche/special editions/models in the future.

However, as an enthusiast I definitely prefer a manual than any kind of automatics and I am missing it already.