[pqr]

Q1 2023 : Indian Passenger Vehicle Market Analysis



- The Indian passenger vehicle market grew by 10.8% in Q1 2023.
- Wholesale in all three months remained over 3 lakh units.

Passenger vehicle brand



- Maruti grew by 8%; however, it lost market share by 1.2%.
- Mahindra, Toyota, and Kia gained significant market share in Q1 2023.

Top 20 products



- Maruti Wagon R continues to be the best-selling car in the Indian market.
- Maruti Brezza became the bestselling SUV.

Body style



- SUV-style products now command 45% of the Indian passenger vehicle market.
- Honda’s entire portfolio is made up of sedans only.



- Mahindra holds the biggest share of the SUV segment.
- Maruti dominates everywhere else.

[shadkhan]

That's impressive and confusing at the same time.
Despite unstable markets, job layoffs/uncertainties and multiple rounds of car price hikes, this data doesn't make much sense, unless I am missing a part of the equation.

[GTO]

Originally Posted by shadkhan

Despite unstable markets, job layoffs/uncertainties and multiple rounds of car price hikes, this data doesn't make much sense, unless I am missing a part of the equation.

Inventories are apparently piling up now, demand from the rural market is softening and cautious sentiments are coming in. Let's see how the next 6 months pan out - related thread (Car dealerships see a drop in enquiries and walk-in customers).

[ReventonLover]

Originally Posted by pqr

Q1 2023 : Indian Passenger Vehicle Market Analysis

Hello. I was just curious to understand, the Q1 growth data has been charted w.r.t. which earlier time period? Was it 2022 Q1 or 2022 Q4?

Originally Posted by shadkhan

That's impressive and confusing at the same time.
Despite unstable markets, job layoffs/uncertainties and multiple rounds of car price hikes, this data doesn't make much sense, unless I am missing a part of the equation.

This data makes sense (if comparison was drawn with Q4 2022) because of price hikes related to RDE norms and due to festivals arriving in March 2023 than April 2023 (New Year being the auspicious day, particularly in Southern and Western India). Dealers would have offered substantial discounts to liquidate their stocks. My BIL was getting a 3L discount on a MY2022 Hector (I don't remember the color, was the top variant). They went as far as matching the best market resale value for their old vehicle.

Things are only about to turn bleak in the future due to the demise of multiple models/engines in the wake of RDE norms kicking in. Due to this, the pre-owned market is about to see a drastic growth in terms of business volumes and profits realized thereon!

[pqr]

Let me try to sum up things in Q1 2023 beyond one line. There are headwinds like car price inflation, besides general inflation, a higher interest rate, and the BS6-RDE transition, so order inflow (queries to retail) has moderated for all manufacturers. Fortunately, sentiments (an unpredictable variable) have not turned completely sour yet, unlike in 2013 and 2019 (pre-election years).

Successful products are selling well, as not every income group is equally affected by economic sluggishness or headlines coming from start-ups or tech layoffs. Supply chain constraints are behind us, so most manufacturers have flooded the dealer pipeline and also offered discounts for not-so-successful products to bring in sales.

Here are some observations from the SUV category.

2023: mass market monocoque SUV

• The sub-4m SUV race is led by the new generation petrol-only Maruti Brezza, which has a tax advantage (45% GST vs 29%).
• Maruti Grand Vitara beats Kia Seltos in Q1 2023. Hyundai continues its winning streak despite postponing a facelift. Skoda, Volkswagen, and MG struggle to make a mark in the segment.
• Due to strong demand, the XUV 700 leads the large SUV segment, followed by the MG Hector facelift.

2023 premium SUV



With production ramping up, the Hyundai Tucson posted its best-ever sales and also nudged ahead of the seemingly overpriced Jeep Compass. A change in value proposition will change the markets size potential as well.



With production ramp-up, the petrol-only (disadvantage in the SUV segment) Skoda Kodiaq facelift posted its best-ever sales in March 2023 and also nudged ahead of the poorly planned diesel-only (advantage in the SUV segment) Jeep Meridian.



Toyota Fortuner, with over 3,000 monthly sales in 2023, crushed MG Gloster.

Originally Posted by ReventonLover

Hello. I was just curious to understand, the Q1 growth data has been charted w.r.t. which earlier time period? Was it 2022 Q1 or 2022 Q4?

Due to the seasonality factor in the Indian passenger vehicle market, sequential quarter growth (e.g., Q4 vs. Q1) data sets do not give a clear picture, so comparisons are always made for the same quarter of different years. However, the below calendar-year (CY) data set will give a clear picture of how the market is developing during COVID-19 and supply chain disruption.

[ReventonLover]

Originally Posted by pqr

Successful products are selling well, as not every income group is equally affected by economic sluggishness or headlines coming from start-ups or tech layoffs. Supply chain constraints are behind us, so most manufacturers have flooded the dealer pipeline and also offered discounts for not-so-successful products to bring in sales.

Attachment 2438173

What I see is a delayed output of the pent up demand in the market post the devastating effects of Delta wave of COVID 19, coupled with the shortage of supply due to global circumstances in CY 2O22. You can already see the beginnings of stunted growth emerging, where the festive season sales (Q4 2022) are less than the Q3 numbers. Would be very interesting to see the same graph 5 years down the line with the current trends and future market disruptions (EV, clean fuels, H2 cells etc). Exciting times!

[Kln]

2022-2023 has been a bumper year for all OEMs, and I hope they've securely parked their funds, because they're in for a long winter ahead. Economic despair is around the corner, and the days of 9-12 months waiting periods for an overpriced SUV are coming to an end. All complacency will be duly punished (Honda, Toyota, VAG), and only the true VFM offerings will survive. I'm glad the arrogant showrooms are seeing a drop in footfalls. A much needed correction is needed.

[rajshenoy]

Nice insights !! Look at Honda there, clearly they are betting on a wrong category(or rather too lazy to explore other categories). It is the dead opposite of say Mahindra which is ruling the SUV segment.

Realistically, I hope this SUV craze ends and people realise how a sedan will any day be more fun and deliver better fuel economy(even more important now that diesel is gone). I still can't imagine SUV + Petrol together.