[Bsreecharan]

It surely is a spot light moment for the Auto Industry in India. However, when you look around on the roads, the kind of cars you find just does not reflect or mirror what a #3 market should be like. I feel none of the mass market manufacturers consider us seriously, every product is made to a price, price sensitive / mileage sensitive market. Cannot fully pin the Manufacturers, our high taxation is a major limiting force. A consumer may think that he/she is buying a 30L rupee car but for a manufacturer it is a 15 L rupee car and hence the perceived vs expected quality gap is humongous and will remain. The new launches / models is a classic reflection of how serious the manufacturers are...its just a volume game.

[yashg]

I have mixed feeling about this. I am looking at the 23% jump in car sales in a year. It means more and more people are preferring to get their own vehicle rather than use public transport. It paints a sorry picture of our priorities as a nation. Yes I love my car. Yes I love to drive. But in the evening when I spend 2 hours in traffic to get home, sitting in that metal box, I dread the thought of having even more cars on those roads the next year and even more the year next. Increase in cars is good but our infrastructure is not keeping pace with the growth. Infra is always 10-15 years behind the number of cars. The infra deficiency pinches even more when you look at the kind of crazy taxes we pay on cars and fuel.

Also look at China's numbers - almost 25 million cars sold in a year. 2 and a half crore cars! More than 5X India's. We have a long way to go in creating a more equitable society. Most of the cars sold here are lower end unsafe tin boxes. Another thing to note is that China has sold more than 5 million EVs, more than India's total car market size. The pace at which that country innovates is just astounding.

Positive thing is that domestic car makers like Tata and Mahindra are coming out with decent EV offerings and future looks bright.

The infra needs to improve drastically and at the same time we need to invest more in reliable and comfortable public transport, so at least for daily commute, people rely less on cars.

[ValarMorghulis]

Originally Posted by yashg

... Also look at China's numbers - almost 25 million cars sold in a year. 2 and a half crore cars! More than 5X India's. ..

Keeping the politics aside of how China is where it is.
China's GDP is $18 Trillion (link) and India's GDP is $3 Trillion (link).

So, a 6X market selling 5X cars. India is doing better. (PS: Stop comparing China with India. China is at least 30 years ahead).

Also, you can't blame fewer cars sold in India and then lament higher cars sold in China in the same post.

[Anwesh]

I agree with this quote, whoever may have said that.

https://twitter.com/grescoe/status/1...037579?lang=en

Regards

[Hayek]

We are the 3rd largest market by volume - but a long way from the second largest market - and just 1/6th the size of the only other market with a similar population. We sold 3.8 mm cars in 2022 and 2.8 mm cars in 2012 - a CAGR of 3.1% in the last decade.

So good news - compared to the abysmally low base we had, and the dismal performance of the industry through 2019-2021, but no great shakes really.

In terms of value of cars sold, we are an even smaller market. The volume weighted average price of cars expected to be sold in China is USD 23,500, that in India is under USD 10,000. From a manufacturer’s perspective, the Indian market is even smaller, thanks to our ridiculously high taxes.

All very well for us to indulge in chest beating - but let’s face the facts - India is a small and rather unattractive market for auto makers, where global products cannot be sold. I will stop here lest I stray into politics.

[sierrabravo98]

Originally Posted by ValarMorghulis

Keeping the politics aside of how China is where it is.
China's GDP is $18 Trillion (link) and India's GDP is $3 Trillion (link).

So, a 6X market selling 5X cars. India is doing better. (PS: Stop comparing China with India. China is at least 30 years ahead).

Also, you can't blame fewer cars sold in India and then lament higher cars sold in China in the same post.

Apologies in advance for being pedantic but, as per IMF Data Mapper, Chinese GDP at Current Prices is USD $19.2 Trillion while the Indian GDP at Current Prices is USD $3.82 Trillion . Hence the Chinese GDP is 5 times the size of the Indian GDP and it shows in almost every economic parameter (unlike other countries in the neighborhood which claim to have surpassed India in per capita GDP terms but then show 1/4th the per capita consumption.)

Originally Posted by Hayek

We are the 3rd largest market by volume - but a long way from the second largest market - and just 1/6th the size of the only other market with a similar population. We sold 3.8 mm cars in 2022 and 2.8 mm cars in 2012 - a CAGR of 3.1% in the last decade.

So good news - compared to the abysmally low base we had, and the dismal performance of the industry through 2019-2021, but no great shakes really.


All very well for us to indulge in chest beating - but let’s face the facts - India is a small and rather unattractive market for auto makers, where global products cannot be sold. I will stop here lest I stray into politics.

Is it really a surprise that a country that is 5 times richer is buying 5x the number of vehicles? On similar lines, like another distinguished member has stated earlier on the thread, any company which finds the "3rd largest automobile market" (and one of the fastest growing major economies at that) small and "rather unattractive" is the one which is going to be left with an egg on its face. Not our loss in the least.

[Hayek]

Originally Posted by sierrabravo98

Chinese GDP at Current Prices is USD $19.2 Trillion while the Indian GDP at Current Prices is USD $3.82 Trillion . Hence the Chinese GDP is 5 times the size of the Indian GDP


Is it really a surprise that a country that is 5 times richer is buying 5x the number of vehicles? any company which finds the "3rd largest automobile market" small and "rather unattractive" is the one which is going to be left with an egg on its face. Not our loss in the least.

You miss the point I made. China has 5x our GDP and sells 5x our number of cars, with the volume weighted price of cars sold at 2.35x the average selling price in our market. So their market is nearly 12x the size of our market, not 5x. Add the fact that average price realisation for manufacturers in India is much lower due to 30% minimum GST - probably closer to 45% on a price weighted basis; and higher import duties - and the Chinese market is actually more than 15x larger. As for growth, irrespective of GDP growth, auto sales have grown at just 3% pa over the last decade.

I stick to what I say, India is a small and unattractive market. And it is the Indian consumer’s loss - paying excessively high prices for unsafe death traps made by Maruti and Hyundai, or safer but nowhere near world class products from Tata or Mahindra. If you feel happy spending your money to make shareholders of these companies rich, it’s your prerogative.

[Pyrotek]

I agree with the dissenting view points here. The diversity of options available in our market today at all price points is abysmal compared to other leading car markets.

We don't get global products from most of the manufacturers at accessible price points. Even the luxury Marques have watered down the versions sold in India or limited the choices in powertrains and trims to maintain some unrealistic Aura of uber luxury.

Examples include the absence of a wide range of truly global products in the portfolios of Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Renault, Volkswagen, and Citroen; the absence of brands such as Subaru, Mazda, Acura, Genesis, Infiniti, and so on.

Look at the poor outifitting of entry-level options from Mercedes GLA/A-Class, Audi Q3, and Volvo XC40. In general, these cars are sold at vastly superior premiums compared to the markets globally.

Look at the poor focus on safety across the board. Cars are scoring 0 and 1 stars and there are cars costing over 20 lakhs and scoring 3 stars. The roads are dominated by unsafe vehicles not fit for global standards.

We still look like a glorified version of a protectionist economy as far as automobiles are concerned. Limited choices, high prices, and products not fit for global standards.

So what are we really celebrating as end consumers?

[dust-n-bones]

Originally Posted by ValarMorghulis

So, a 6X market selling 5X cars. India is doing better. (PS: Stop comparing China with India. China is at least 30 years ahead).

Also, you can't blame fewer cars sold in India and then lament higher cars sold in China in the same post.

China as you rightly say, cannot be compared to India economically, but is very comparable to India population-wise. Is in fact India's only peer in the world when it comes to population.


(Courtesy: link)

We should think of why a similarly populated country manages to sell 5x the cars at 2.5x our average prices.
One of the answers I get is that a full generation of the Chinese under Deng Xiaoping focused on the economy, without getting distracted in foreign power competitions. Look up his philosophy of 'Hide your capacities, bide your time'.

We seem to have no such patience. With modest per capita income growth to show for, we still want to deepen every division in our society, pick every quarrel with our neighbours, and be a vishwa guru while we're at it. Talk of a republic that doesn't know what it wants in life.

The quality and number of cars, EVs, trucks, buses, roads, dams - then it slowly starts making sense.

[sierrabravo98]

Originally Posted by Hayek

You miss the point I made. China has 5x our GDP and sells 5x our number of cars, with the volume weighted price of cars sold at 2.35x the average selling price in our market. So their market is nearly 12x the size of our market, not 5x. Add the fact that average price realisation for manufacturers in India is much lower due to 30% minimum GST - probably closer to 45% on a price weighted basis; and higher import duties - and the Chinese market is actually more than 15x larger. As for growth, irrespective of GDP growth, auto sales have grown at just 3% pa over the last decade.

I stick to what I say, India is a small and unattractive market. And it is the Indian consumer’s loss - paying excessively high prices for unsafe death traps made by Maruti and Hyundai, or safer but nowhere near world class products from Tata or Mahindra. If you feel happy spending your money to make shareholders of these companies rich, it’s your prerogative.

See this is the problem with analysing statistics without any context. The middle class of any country is the prime consumer of White Goods (although the Government of India treats automobiles as luxury goods). The Chinese middle class numbers close to 90 crore as of 2022 as compared to 30-35 crore of India. Also, the Chinese UHNWI segment is 3-4 times the size of its Indian equivalent which would explain the massive sales of luxury cars in China thereby elevating the average car price up. So no, the Chinese market is NOT 12x the size of our market. Also, as an Indian retail investor (or even a common citizen), the success/failure of Tata/Mahindra would impact me immeasurably more than the fortunes of any other global automotive company. So if your last retort was a veiled dig, it was a downright lousy and pathetic attempt at one.

Originally Posted by dust-n-bones

China as you rightly say, cannot be compared to India economically, but is very comparable to India population-wise. Is in fact India's only peer in the world when it comes to population. Also,
Attachment 2400870

(Courtesy: link)

We should think of why a similarly populated country manages to sell 5x the cars at 2.5x our average prices.
One of the answers I get is that a full generation of the Chinese under Deng Xiaoping focused on the economy, without getting distracted in foreign power competitions. Look up his philosophy of 'Hide your capacities, bide your time'.

We seem to have no such patience. With modest per capita income growth to show for, we still want to deepen every division in our society, pick every quarrel with our neighbours, and be a vishwa guru while we're at it. Talk of a republic that doesn't know what it wants in life.

The quality and number of cars, EVs, trucks, buses, roads, dams - then it slowly starts making sense.

You sing paeans to Chinese achievements but I wager that BHPians would cry the most if the Indian government actually started to adopt the tactics which were (are) used by the Chinese government to reach where it is right now. The Chinese have border disputes with each and every one of their neighbours (barring its pet dog Pakistan which gave away strategic territories as protection levy). If we adopted the Chinese methods, there would be no divisions in the society (because the divide would have been steamrollered over by our Arjun Mk-1s) and quislings like Nepal/Sri Lanka would not be braying like they are because they would have been our colonies.

[volkman10]

Originally Posted by dragracer567

Interesting. Skoda doesn’t sell particularly well in India but despite that, India is the third largest market?

Yes, it is true.

[dust-n-bones]

Originally Posted by sierrabravo98

You sing paeans to Chinese achievements but I wager that BHPians would cry the most if the Indian government actually started to adopt the tactics which were (are) used by the Chinese government to reach where it is right now. The Chinese have border disputes with each and every one of their neighbours (barring its pet dog Pakistan which gave away strategic territories as protection levy). If we adopted the Chinese methods, there would be no divisions in the society (because the divide would have been steamrollered over by our Arjun Mk-1s) and quislings like Nepal/Sri Lanka would not be braying like they are because they would have been our colonies. .

You seem to have very strong views on the topic. Though I was only trying to see what good we can borrow from the visible progress China has made for our benefit. You are right about China's border disputes. My argument though is, that they chose to prioritize economic development over these disputes in the Deng era. If we are serious about economic development, we should follow the same for at least a generation.

You take the opposite lesson. That we should make colonies out of Nepal. What to say.

Originally Posted by sierrabravo98

You cry about protectionist stance adopted by the Indian government and simultaneously praise China.

Please read clearly. I said no such thing about protectionism. My point is, we have a long road ahead to be a serious player across industries, automotives and EVs in particular. We will not get anywhere unless we learn to focus, and learn to ignore the disputes, quarrels - both internal and external.


Also, please keep your language civil. We are discussing how every Indian can ultimately afford a $20k vehicle, how our auto industry can scale to match our population. Your ideas are welcome. But please don't suggest that we can or should silence everyone with battle tanks.

[volkman10]

As India becomes the 3rd-largest car market in the world, Skoda too reaps its benefits having invested here.

Skoda sells 731,300 cars in 2022, India accounts for 7% of global sales.

Martin Jahn, Skoda Auto Board Member for Sales and Marketing,

We delivered 731,300 vehicles worldwide last year, and we more than doubled our deliveries in India, already one of our three most important markets.

Link (Skoda in control of VW's product development for India; car based on MQB-A0-IN platform coming)