[MVM]

Greetings to all the BHPians on this forum.

I have always been in love with cars my entire life and in the recent past I have grown fond of bikes too, especially those that belong to a bygone era. One of the very first words I uttered was "Boo car" which was what I called a blue coloured toy car I had as a toddler. I was never particular in my taste of cars, I loved any car irrespective of the power, handling, top speed etc. This love for cars has been imparted to me by my father and to him by my grandfather. As I moved into my teenage years this love for cars grew into a love for all things mechanical. Engines,Mechanical watches, typewriters etc. I tried to learn my way around a car's engine bit by bit. Trying to do small jobs on my parents' cars making sure not break something in the process. For a very long time the day I looked forward to the most was my 18th birthday after which I could finally learn to drive a car and enjoy the feeling of driving a car. I used to dream of rowing through the gears on an empty road while driving into the sunset. I recently turned 18 and have started learning how to drive a car and have been enjoying the process for the most part. The part that disappoints me is that I know that I won't be driving manual, internal combustion cars for very long. My dad has been driving for the better part of 37 years and I know that I won't be driving a petrol or diesel powered car for anywhere near as long as that. I felt the need to discuss this after learning that the diesel variant of the Innova had been discontinued. I felt disappointed when Maruti pulled the plug for their iconic 1.3L diesel which had been used in their cars since the first Swift diesel was launched in India. For the past 15 years we have had the Maruti 1.3L diesel engine in 3 of our cars, 2 of which we still own. The diesels are slowly being pulled from production and within the next 10 to 15 years I feel the petrol engines will face a similar fate. Petrolheads are an endangered species and with fewer people from my generation showing interest in cars I feel the number of petrolheads from the generations to come will be negligible. Our beloved IC cars will probably die a slow and painful death in the years to come.
I request the members of this forum to share their thoughts on this matter.
Thank you for your time.

[GTO]

Don't worry, the future is bright for petrolheads . Here's why:

- Petrol engines are here to stay. It's a long, long time (think couple of decades) before they are phased out (if at all) in favour of EVs. And even in a hypothetical full-on EV world of 2050, there will always be a few ICE vehicles on offer.

- We're past "peak diesel" for sure. They have gotten a bad rep (thanks VW Dieselgate), emission norms are very tough and even buyer preferences are changing. I find it hard to believe, but I am suddenly open to the idea of a turbo-petrol Jeep! But hey, even if in the used market, you'll have plenty of fast turbo-diesels to choose from for the next 10 - 15 years.

- Thanks to turbo-charging, cars are getting faster and faster. Even budget cars offer ~100 BHP today (Citroen C3 has 109), while there are so many 150 BHP options in the 15 - 20 lakh space.

- EVs will democratize performance. No 10-15 lakh rupee petrol or diesel car can do 0 - 100 in 6 to 7 seconds. I can bet you that EVs will. EVs are fun handlers too, because of their lower center of gravity (not to mention, the instant torque delivery).

- We have way more choice in today's market than we did back in the day.

- Lastly, to all the young petrolheads starting off, let me just say that you can have fun in any car. It's not necessary to have 200 BHP under the hood with razor-sharp handling. Here's our thread on the same (Is it necessary for "fun-to-drive" to only involve fast + tight handling cars? I don't think so!). I've had some great memorable drives in cars like the Swift, i20, MG Hector, Scorpio-N etc.

That being said, what I do feel bad about is the mechanical feel of cars diminishing & good engines being discontinued (e.g. S-Cross 1.6L, Audi's 3.0L...).

[RedTerrano]

ICE days are numbered. That is set in stone. What will replace ICE? As of now it's electric but hydrogen fuel is looming on the horizon. Based on my understanding of the technology, if hydrogen does turn to reality we can look forward to monster engines packed with a solid power punch. Think pre OPEC days in US where mileage was the last thing on anybody's mind.

Now for the other part. Roads. Or more specifically road congestion.
Hardly a decade ago, when I felt the need for speed, all I needed to do was go outside Pune city limits onto some highway and floor it.
Nowadays the traffic is so bad, that it takes an hour or so just to get onto the highway with a clear road.
Inside the city, it's even worse. My better half has stopped driving totally, preferring OLA/Uber instead.

Overall I am not too optimistic. On one hand we will have lots and lots of horses under our hood, but nowhere to let them fly.

[shankar.balan]

Originally Posted by GTO

Don't worry, the future is bright for petrolheads . Here's why:

- Petrol engines are here to stay. It's a long, long time (think couple of decades) before they are phased out (if at all) in favour of EVs.
- EVs will democratize performance. No 10-15 lakh rupee petrol or diesel car can do 0 - 100 in 6 to 7 seconds. I can bet you that EVs will. EVs are fun handlers too, because of their lower center of gravity (not to mention, the instant torque delivery).

- We have way more choice in today's market than we did back in the day.

- Lastly, to all the young petrolheads starting off, let me just say that you can have fun in any car. It's not necessary to have 200 BHP under the hood with razor-sharp handling. Here's our thread on the same (Is it necessary for "fun-to-drive" to only involve fast + tight handling cars? I don't think so!). I've had some great memorable drives in cars like the Swift, i20, MG Hector, Scorpio-N etc.

That being said, what I do feel bad about is the mechanical feel of cars diminishing & good engines being discontinued (e.g. S-Cross 1.6L, Audi's 3.0L...).

This is a good view. I take heart that they won’t completely remove all ICE cars. And my present stable have several years left in them in terms of ‘Fitness’.

I agree that one can have a lot of fun in any car and it doesn’t necessarily need to be a super fast car or super handler. For example I think I love driving my Gypsy whenever possible just because of its own character and that lovely mechanical feel.

I am only hoping that in India also, just like in the UK and US and AU and EU, they come up with good rules for old cars with high quality monitoring and strong, honest enforcement. I will willingly subscribe, just to keep my lovely cars on the road and enjoy them from time to time.

And I’m sure most of us here will do just that!

[ajayc123]

Originally Posted by MVM

One of the very first words I uttered was "Boo car" which was what I called a blue coloured toy car I had as a toddler.

Thank you for sharing your boo-tiful post.
What a way to activate your tongue.

Stop worrying and start enjoying driving responsibly. ICEs will surely have a long tail and they should be around for decades.

When I reflect back at the transformation that we have seen, it just amuses me no end. A few decades ago, there were big news articles that the fossil fuel will get over before the middle of this century, now the tables have turned. Fossil fuels are still around and in plenty, but the buzz is around ICEs getting extinct now, for different reasons. God knows the reality, but entertainment continues.

Anyway, in the turn of the events, the founders of this portal have demonstrated the foresight in naming this portal with the timeless moniker bhp, which is quite agnostic of the technology. Let’s say if the site had a locator like petrolheads, then they would have been staring at an existential identity crisis at some point.

[extreme_torque]

I think we are already at the inflection point of BEV adoption whether we like it or not. By 2030 my estimate is that in most mature big automobile markets, EV's would account for over 80% of the sales and you can hold me to this number come 2030.

For example in China, the biggest automobile market, a quarter of all cars sold were electric amounting to about 3.3m cars and its almost doubling yoy. To put it in perspective, 2 more doublings and we are looking at 100% EV sales! Tesla sold more than 80k Model Y's in September this year outstripping the sales of gas powered SUV's from BMW, Mercedes and the likes.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/26/b...-vehicles.html

https://www.reuters.com/business/aut...ry-2022-10-09/

Europe is going through a similar fate as well. In September of this year, Model Y was the best selling car in Germany, not the best selling EV, best selling car. The sales of electric vehicles against is more than a quarter of all sales in almost all European countries, Norway being much further ahead.

https://cleantechnica.com/tag/europe-ev-sales/

The only other major market, USA is still behind but EV's have already passed 5% of new car sales which is the tipping point for mass adoption. Add in the recently announced EV incentives, it is only going to increase. And if the legacy car makers want to survive and give themselves a chance to compete with Tesla or EV companies from China and not go bankrupt they should have started yesterday. Also being a pick up truck market, I feel Cybertruck when it is launched is going to lead the way. All things are pointing to production beginning early next year and then the ramp up.

We should have had a clear singleminded policies around EV's like China but as always we have already missed the bus. China literally red carpet welcomed Tesla to set up their manufacturing inspite of their high quality local EV start ups and now the whole industry is competitive. With most major markets moving to EV's I dont think Indian market will have choice unless we keep buying the outdated and continue importing expensive oil.

[vb-saan]

Like GTO mentioned above, I don’t think it will be that bad for existing petrolheads, at least until the end of this decade. Diesel could soon get relegated just for commercial vehicles (and eventually even that could move to fully electric space).

That said, I do think petrolheads will soon become an endangered species. In a couple of years, the new drivers coming into the scene, probably won’t even know what a manual transmission is. They’ll straight away start with an AT (again not a bad thing, just the inevitable evolution). And with the way EV scene is shaping up, the upcoming generation of drivers will see cars as devices, and not as a machine that connects with them. Cars for them will be more like gadgets, the excitement of a new car could be more like the excitement of getting a brand-new iteration of an iPhone. Now we say 'I drive a Thar or a 3-series'. The future generation could say 'I use an EQS V3 or an Ioniq 15 Ultra’.

[speedmiester]

While there won't be a complete ban on all ICE vehicles, we will be seeing a lot less of them on the road for sure. The transition has already started and I am one of them. After using a proper EV for 3 months, all I can say is it is very hard to move to an ICE car anytime soon. But, I do miss the pure mechanical connection of driving a ICE car with manual gearbox in a well sorted car. I might get a >2liter petrol sedan just for this purpose in the coming year.

In the near future, ICE cars will mostly be relegated to long touring and fun drives while the EVs will take over the mundane commutes in traffic and pollution infested cities.

[shancz]

Congratulations for stepping into the drivers world, legally too

While it may seem that the private car ownership is getting electric options at warp speed it will also be the last segment to go fully electric (if no other alternate power source is found).
The variations in preferences, usage, terrain, infrastructure and electric supply that we have in our country will ensure that some ICE options will always be there till the time everything switches over to alternates.
The cost of maintaining one owing to expensive fuel and taxes is another thing.

Commercial vehicles will be the fastest to switch over owing to predictable routes and the economical benefits.

Change is bound to happen, faster than earlier but take comfort in the fact that cars usually get better. Just take a look at how cars and two wheelers have matured over the past 3-4 decades and you'll be proud of how far we have come.

Enough nostalgia, time to get your license(if not already) and start driving. You should be more concerned about how the iVTEC and TSI perform with an MT over CVT/DSG or the zero day question of SUV or sedan/hatchback

[SKC-auto]

ICE cars will be probably used for motorsports, the rich can definitely enjoy some track days, for the ordinary people ICE is dead, cannot assign a date, completely depends on the future govts. By 2050 you will have tremendous range anxiety finding a petrol pump, paying a hefty price for 1L petrol.

Electricity is the most efficient and clean energy humans have invented, the reason all our appliances run on electricity. Cars are also moving in that direction, Hydrogen, synthetic fuels are just a distraction.

[lionheart_mm]

I don't see the transition towards EVs as a major problem as far as the Indian market is concerned. EVs with a good performance will be available at a decent price as automakers don't have to be hell bend about squeezing as much fuel economy out of an engine.

The real problem is for the western petrol heads were cars like Charger, Challenger, Nissan GTR, Camero, Lexus V8s and so on will be gone. We don't get these models in India anyway.

[fhdowntheline]

Originally Posted by SKC-auto

Electricity is the most efficient and clean energy humans have invented, the reason all our appliances run on electricity. Cars are also moving in that direction, Hydrogen, synthetic fuels are just a distraction.

I hope you are saying this in jest. The biggest challenge is the availability of non-conventional or renewable energy sources for generating electricity. Most of the "clean" electricity that you talk about appears so because the source of generating the pollution shifts from the city to the powerplant. There is no point burning thousands of tons of coal or natural gas just to get our vehicle batteries recharged. And at this point, there is no other energy source that allows the capability to generate huge amounts of electricity "on-demand" other than conventional , fossil fuels.

[ajayc123]

Originally Posted by fhdowntheline

I hope you are saying this in jest. The biggest challenge is the availability of non-conventional or renewable energy sources for generating electricity. Most of the "clean" electricity that you talk about appears so because the source of generating the pollution shifts from the city to the powerplant. There is no point burning thousands of tons of coal or natural gas just to get our vehicle batteries recharged. And at this point, there is no other energy source that allows the capability to generate huge amounts of electricity "on-demand" other than conventional , fossil fuels.

We should start wishing that we should move rapidly to tapping more and more of the energy from what is anyway always burning on the star called "sun".

[SKC-auto]

Originally Posted by fhdowntheline

There is no point burning thousands of tons of coal or natural gas just to get our vehicle batteries recharged. And at this point, there is no other energy source that allows the capability to generate huge amounts of electricity "on-demand" other than conventional , fossil fuels.

Yes, and we have a clear path for 100% renewables(not saying in jest) powered EV future, sadly the same can never be said about other transport solutions. We are not there yet, we will reach there eventually, by 2030 most of our electricity comes from renewables.

Even today driving EVs is cleaner and better than ICE, most people do not account for well to wheel emissions of fossil fuels, the generation of fossil fuels needs huge amounts of the same coal powered electricity.

[aim120]

By 2030 practically every car will have some sort of self driving aid or full self driving. By 2050 if anyone is driving themselves, they will be getting dagger stares.

So forget about driving petrol cars, you won't even be allowed to drive 20 years from now, unless its on a track.