[GutsyGibbon]

Originally Posted by lurker

The main issue that I see here is the location of all major fabs in East Asia where they are vulnerable to Chinese meddling. Fabs should have been distributed world over and such a critical product production should not have been monopolized in one geographical area. The world is paying a big price for these mistakes. I am sure new fabs will now come up world over but will take around five years to materialize.

This gets me furious, I have been in the fabless semiconductor industry for decades. It is mind boggling that even with all the "Make in India" stance, and some of the richest people in the world, India does not have any fabs - forget matching the likes of TSMC. There just is no will. They are too short term - merchant minded. If Tesla can put up a gigafactory in a year, why cant we have a fab in all these years of "Make in India" policies?

I am sure Cymer/ASML will sell anyone with money all the fab making equipment. For all I care they could stick a fab under one of the huge solar farms owned by these rich connected people. I have been watching talks of an Indian fab for a decade, (from small techies with good intent, and knowledge) but no money, no political clout.

IMHO, the exact same reasoning goes to why US does not have fabs anymore.

[lordtottuu]

Operations of many of the world’s biggest automakers who have their factories in Asia, Europe and North America have been suspended due to a persistent shortage of semiconductors. Most manufacturers are affected including Ford, GM, Toyota, Volkswagen and Honda.

Toyota Motor Corp. , Honda Motor Co. and Samsung Electronics Co. said supply-chain problems were complicating their businesses, as freak weather, port blockages and the continued impact of Covid-19 combine to disrupt global supply chains.


Toyota and Honda said Wednesday that they would halt production at plants in North America because of a squeeze in crucial supplies, including plastic components, petrochemicals and semiconductors. Honda also blamed port backlogs and severe winter weather that has frozen plants and pipes across the central U.S. for the disruption.

Sources:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/03/gm-extends-plant-shutdowns-due-to-global-semiconductor-chip-shortage.html

Biden can’t fix the chip shortage any time soon. Here’s why.
Chinese electric car start-up Nio shuts factory for 5 days due to global chip shortage

This is not just limited to automotives. Computing, specially GPUs have been very severely affected. Between the semi-conductor shortage and the mining frenzy, a massive bubble is in the making.

If you're trying to buy new, the current gen 30X0 cards from Nvidia are all going for 2x their MSRP and being gobbled up within seconds. The logical move is to buy pre-woned but even 3-4 years cards (ancient in the tech world) are going for mind bending prices.

[RahulNagaraj]

Hyundai Motor has announced that it is considering suspending production operations at its No. 1 Ulsan plant in South Korea from next month. The company is citing semiconductor chip shortage as the main reason for the shutdown.



The production facility which is situated around 414 km southeast of Seoul, in Ulsan, manufactures the Kona compact-SUV and the IONIQ 5 for the domestic market. The semiconductors are used on the Kona’s front vehicle camera system. Reports suggests that a week of shutdown could result in production losses amounting to 6,000 Kona SUVs and 6,500 IONIQ 5. However, there is no timeline yet on how long Hyundai plans to suspend the operation.

The part shortage has also affected the Hyundai Mobis assembly line, which manufactures the traction motor for the IONIQ 5. Hyundai Mobis is one of the main auto component suppliers for Hyundai Motor and Kia.



Hyundai Motor is also said to have already reduced overtime work at its No. 3 Ulsan plant, due to the shortage of parts / components. Starting from April, the company is said to completely cancel all overtime work at this factory.

Source: ET Auto

Link to Team-BHP news

[greenh0rn]

I spoke to a few dealers of Mercedes and BMW in Delhi and Gurgaon, and everyone says there is no production happening for the popular models on account of supply issues from Germany (Germany is still under lockdowns). GLC and GLS have up to six months waiting now. For BMW, 330i SWB is nearly out of stock and next deliveries are only expected in May or June.

[AZT]

Subaru to temporarily shut its plant due to chip shortage

OKYO (Reuters) -Japan’s Subaru Corp said on Monday that the automaker will shut its Yajima plant between April 10 and 27 due to a chip shortage, affecting 10,000 vehicles.
Subaru will restart all production lines at the Yajima plant in Gunma Prefecture from May 10, it said in a statement.

https://www.reuters.com/article/tech.../idUSKBN2BS0H5

[volkman10]

Honda City was heavily impacted by the semiconductor shortage and its volumes fell a staggering -68% in March 2021 v/s Feb 2021.

It ended up ranking 5th in the table.




Link

[GutsyGibbon]

Oh please, now somebody (some conglomerate) take this gift and start a fab.
https://www.reuters.com/article/indi...-idUSKBN2BN12H

What are they waiting for?

[Emvi]

If semiconductor chip shortage wasn't enough, now this-

https://m.economictimes.com/small-bi...w/82059970.cms

[vharihar]

Originally Posted by GutsyGibbon

This gets me furious, I have been in the fabless semiconductor industry for decades. It is mind boggling that even with all the "Make in India" stance, and some of the richest people in the world, India does not have any fabs - forget matching the likes of TSMC. There just is no will. They are too short term - merchant minded. If Tesla can put up a gigafactory in a year, why cant we have a fab in all these years of "Make in India" policies?

I am sure Cymer/ASML will sell anyone with money all the fab making equipment. For all I care they could stick a fab under one of the huge solar farms owned by these rich connected people. I have been watching talks of an Indian fab for a decade, (from small techies with good intent, and knowledge) but no money, no political clout.

IMHO, the exact same reasoning goes to why US does not have fabs anymore.

Chip manufacturing requires tons and tons of water, primarily because of repeated rinse operations bween every 2 process steps (of which there are very very many). And an ultra paranoia of contamination (class 10 clean rooms), which rules out water reuse. Large parts of India have a water shortage. Indeed, water is a luxury in India. If at all, Kerala and Assam are the only states I feel which have abundant water. But then Kerala has other problems, viz. a history of rebellious workforce. Assam is probably geographically disadvantaged.

Secondly, chip manufacturing needs topclass infrastructure in terms of power and transportation. Automobile manufacturing, which has successfully come up in India, is different in the sense that automobile manufactured products are shipped to end users. End users can wait for delayed delivery if there is a disruption of supply for a few weeks.

But semiconductor chips are 99% of the time shipped to other OEM integrators (board level manufacturers). These guys have tight supply and demand schedules, and they’d go bust if chips reach them late. Eg.: A motherboard manufacturer.

Why do I say chips could reach the OEM integrator late specifically in India? Well, what else can you expect when you have bandhs and rasta rokos for anything and everything (like the farm laws protest, for example)? Or antiquated road/rail infrastructure compared to the developed world (road is improving, but not there yet)?

Chip *design* is our forte, and I think India just needs to milk that cow to the hilt. We’ve missed the chip *manufacturing* bus for good, having been late by about 4 decades. At the end of the day, a manufacturer won’t set up a plant just for the heck of it. He needs to see benefit in it. And from what I see, manufacturers don’t see a benefit in chip manufacturing in India.

We should incentivise board level manufacturing, assembly and sort test, and chip packaging (like Malaysia). These are easier targets (though the challenge around bandhs vis-a-vis supply to OEM integrators still remains)

We've missed the chip manufacturing bus for good, being a good 4 decades late to the party, and yet stuck with governance issues that totally rule out chip manufacturing.

Oh, and I forgot to mention cost. Cutting edge fabs nowadays cost about Rs 40,000 crore to set up.

[TrackDay]

BMW also affected by the chip shortage and will halt production of the Mini for a few days.

BMW finally buckles under the strain of global chip shortage

BMW AG is giving way to the global shortage of semiconductors after months of managing to maintain output in the latest indication the auto industry’s supply-chain woes are only getting worse.

The automaker will pause Mini car production at its Oxford, England, factory for three days starting April 30, according to a spokeswoman. It’s also reducing shifts this week at its plant in Regensburg, Germany.

BMW was one of the last remaining major automakers unscathed by a shortage of chips expected to cost the industry tens of billions of dollars in revenue this year. Tesla Inc. CEO Elon Musk this week called the issue a “huge problem.” NXP Semiconductors said it’s expecting supply to be tight all year and warned constraints for the auto industry could extend into 2022.

Source: https://www.autonews.com/manufacturi...-chip-shortage

[anjan_c2007]

Automobile manufacturers are reeling under the shortage of semi-conductors all over the world and are unable to fulfil pending orders solely due to this reason, ever since the global pandemic storm of 2020-21 seemed to pass over. Volkswagen had shutdowns in its Emden, Germany, and Bratislava, Slovakia, plants and now its the turn of their plant in Mexico.

A fire at the Renesas chip factory in Japan, which reportedly supplies about two-thirds of all chips used by the auto industry, caused extensive damage. To compound automakers' woes, the disastrous weather in early 2021 in Texas, USA, has caused a production and supply disruption for the major chip manufacturers based there.

The full recovery of the semiconductor supply chain for auto makers could stretch to 2022, Jim Farley, CEO, Ford Motors, said.

Harald Wilhelm, Daimler AG’s CFO, said that until the fire at Renesas and the weather-related shutdowns in Texas, he had expected the chip shortage to abate after the first quarter, but now thinks the supply won’t see a strong recovery until the end of the year.

In Taiwan, where a large number of chips are produced for applications in the auto industry, the worst drought in half a century is now threatening fresh disruptions for chip makers, whose factories require copious amounts of water.

Samsung Electronics is a major chip maker. NXP Semiconductors based in The Netherlands and Germany’s Infineon Technologies AG, have plants based in Texas that were hit by the bad weather in February 2021.

The Wall Street Journal of 29.04.2021 (link below)

The main causes of the worsening shortage are the widespread chip manufacturing disruption in Texas from the severe weather in February and a fire at Japan’s Renesas Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. on March 19 that halted production, ripping a hole in the global supply. That has left car makers searching for chips needed for on-board electronics, safety systems such as automatic braking, and infotainment consoles.

The disruptions in Texas and Japan have exacerbated a shortage that began last year when strong demand from the consumer-electronics industry left car makers unable to accelerate chip orders to keep pace with a stronger-than-expected post-lockdown rebound in auto sales. Car makers had to stall or stop production and ration chips for the best-earning models.

“The semiconductor shortage and the impact to production will get worse before it gets better,” Ford Chief Executive Jim Farley said Wednesday. “Our second quarter will be the trough for this year.”

With auto makers now anticipating a slower chip-supply recovery than expected, they are having to adopt new mitigation measures.

Volkswagen AG , Europe’s biggest auto maker, said this week it would halt production of the Jetta at its plant in Mexico on May 3 and resume on May 20. Production of the Tiguan model would be shut down May 6 and restart May 17. The company said production of the new Taos model, which goes on sale in the U.S. in June, hasn’t been affected.

VW has already had chip-related shutdowns at plants in Emden, Germany and Bratislava, Slovakia, where a VW factory builds models for its VW, Audi, Seat and Skoda brands.

To read the full newsitem please use this link:-

https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-...=WTRN#cxrecs_s

The wary automakers are now backtracking from the 50 year old "just in time" production norm, that was followed sensu stricto all through these decades. The hyper-efficient auto supply chain symbolised the phrase "just in time" during the pre-pandemic decades, as things worked with a clock work precision in the chain. Bad weather and fires seem to be the causative factors,not necessarily the pandemic that have made auto makers revisit and say good bye to the "just in time" culture. They are scared of supply chain disruptions and are now in favour of creating spares inventories, with a view to stockpiling spares. The link below will provide a glimpse into their synergetic production techniques to overcome their woes:-

https://www.wsj.com/articles/auto-ma...ng-11620051251

[anivy]

Courtesy of Alex Tabarrok and the Marginal Revolution blog, got another perspective to this story via a "60 minutes" report:

Anyway, we're now being deluged with stories along this line. Last night, for example, 60 Minutes ran a segment about the shortage of chips for cars and videogames and whatnot. And why is there a shortage of chips? Is it because we've outsourced everything to the wily Chinese folks on Taiwan? You'd think so after inhaling Lesley Stahl's inane reporting, except for the fact that she inadvertently allowed the chairman of Taiwanese chipmaker TSMC a brief moment to give the game away: "In March, 2020, as COVID paralyzed the U.S., car sales tumbled, leading automakers to cancel their chip orders. So TSMC stopped making them."

Oh. So it has nothing to do with Taiwanese fabs vs. American fabs or global supply constraints or any of that. Nor is it related to a possible invasion of Taiwan or the fact that Intel may or may not have made good decisions about its future business. It’s because American car companies cancelled their chip orders and never bothered to reinstate them. Then in December, when car sales “unexpectedly” began to rebound, they panicked and realized what they had done. You’d think these guys had never done an economic forecast or used an MRP system before in their lives.

Anyway, be prepared for hundreds of stories like this. For each one, be careful to ignore the details and instead focus on the big picture. In about 90% of them, it will be the same: they didn’t plan for the pandemic to ever end, and now they’re paying the price.

This is affecting the rental car companies as well and they have started buying from the used car market!



Marginal Revolution Blog

60 minutes

[volkman10]

Carmakers removing high-end features in cars to cope with semiconductor shortage – GPS, digital meter out

Nissan will be omitting the GPS navigation systems from thousands of new cars, Renault has stopped offering the fully digital instrument cluster in the Arkana, and Ram will temporarily cease to offer the intelligent rear-view mirror on its 1500 pick-up trucks, just to save on chips.

The unprecedented shortage is a historic one, and comes at a time when automakers are starting to produce much safer and smarter cars that require significantly more computing power. The collective production cutbacks will result in millions of vehicle sales to be lost this year, and experts say the situation will not get any better until 2022 at the very least.

Companies that are lucky enough to have secured what limited supply of semiconductors are allocating them to more profitable and popular models. Peugeot, for example, has announced that it will be replacing the digital instrumentation in the 308 with conventional analogue ones.

Link

[kiku007]

We had to wait for a couple of days to get a replacement computer for our Mazda's infotainment system. I understand that the semiconductor shortage is making life difficult for car makers internationally but I'm not too sure about the impact in India.

So I was wondering if there's been any direct impact to BHPians.

Has the global semiconductor shortage impacted your car ownership/purchase?

1. Yes - Delay in car delivery.
2. Yes - Car delivered with some features deleted and offered a discount.
3. Yes - Car delivered with some features to be installed later (Mahindra Thar : Official Review).
4. Yes - Canceled my booking.
5. Yes - Delay in parts delivery.

Thanks.

It's quite to interesting to see that the cost of electronic components in modern cars (internationally) jumped from 18% to 40% in two-decades.


It's a boon as well as bane. Our Mazda 3 went for a simple annual service. The Dealer updated the Navigation Maps file. The Infotainment system went into a infinite reboot loop. Neither the Dealer nor Mazda AU have seen this happen before and couldn't troubleshoot it. So they just replaced the CMU (Computer) and it's all fine now.

Our car is under warranty and we got a no questions asked replacement and a rental car while the car was with the dealer. Now imagine the plight of a car that's not under warranty and the car owner having triggered the above issue.

For example: The sad plight of the owner of a lemon in this thread,
https://www.team-bhp.com/forum/india...ving-them.html (Tata Harrier XZA+ problems & unprofessional behavior by Tata Motors in resolving them)

I think carmakers are in a delicate situation trying to integrate their legacy mechanicals with modern technology and this marriage isn't going all too well all the time. The issue is exasperated for carmakers who are already laggards in terms of quality and reliability.

[gauravanekar]

Here is the best video that I can think of on this topic

https://youtu.be/b1JlYZQG3lI

I recommend everyone to watch once