[Pushkaraj10]

Hello,
I have a question here. I am using Vitara Brezza for almost 5 years now. I am planning to upgrade by next year to another SUV.
As BS6 is being introduced in India next year April-2020, what will be effect on resale value of BS4 cars? Will they be stable, increase or reduce?

Upgrade will be SUV and I am waiting for 2 SUVs from Volkswagon = T-ROC and T-Cross.

[shankar.balan]

I believe that all the BS4 and earlier cars will quietly end up in the rural belts of India, the way the earlier generations of cars have done.

A couple weeks ago while driving around some smaller villages/ hamlets in the hinterland I noted a number of Ambys, Mahindra Jeeps,
Maruti Vans/ Omnis and Swifts and Chevy Sparks and Toyota Qualis's and similar.

So I m guessing that the used car dealers will have a field day buying up all the Metro City fancy cars which will fetch nice prices out there in the rural market.

Thing is the propensity for the rural person to change cars is not dictated by ego or fashion but by function and price. Yes, form too. But primarily function and price.

So with this enforced emigration of higher segment BS4 cars out of the big cities, he/ she can now aspire to the next level or segment of car, at a nice price, rather than have to settle for a run of the mill vehicle.

Overall over time it will result in a larger scale overhaul of the carscape across different parts of India, just the way the entire carscape of Metropolitan India changed incredibly over these last 15 years.

So in effect, I believe that the prices one can get for one's BS4 if selling it now and in future, will not go up.

The prices will likely only go down as more and more people keep selling their BS4's in keeping with the regulations.

[self_driven]

Originally Posted by Pushkaraj10

I am using Vitara Brezza for almost 5 years now.

Dude the car was launched in 2016 only

Will they be stable, increase or reduce?

Stable in the initial years. Individual buyers, at least the majority, are least bothered about the emissions of a vehicle. Dealers will definitely try to argue to bring down their purchase price the moment we shift to BS6 norms. Still I don't think it will amount to a significant difference for a hot selling diesel car.

Resale value of BS4 diesel cars will decrease after a few years (say 2025-26 or so) or earlier in case the government passes some rule that affects the validity of BS4 diesel cars in your area. People won't bother driving around in BS4 diesel cars unless forced by law to shift to BS6 vehicles.

Although very unlikely, if auto manufacturers raise the prices of new BS6 cars by 15-20%, the resale value of your car might go up as well. But yes, this is unlikely to happen.

My suggestion would be to wait till 2021 if none of the current cars on offer satisfy your itch to upgrade. All the hoopla around BS4 vs BS6 will settle down by that time and you'll have more clarity.

[GTO]

Nothing is going to happen to BS4 cars. In fact, in some cases, their depreciation might actually slow down! Say something like the Swift 1.3 diesel which is going to be discontinued. There is phenomenal demand for the car; now that people can't buy it new, they will definitely line up to buy it used (unless Maruti launches a Swift 1.5L diesel). Several such popular variants are going to be discontinued in April 2020.

Also take the case of luxury cars = most customers will actually prefer BS4 because they don't have to fill in AdBlue periodically into the SCR-emission tanks. Some BS6 cars will also have diluted power delivery.

Therefore, I say that the value will be stable.

Originally Posted by shankar.balan

I believe that all the BS4 and earlier cars will quietly end up in the rural belts of India, the way the earlier generations of cars have done.

That has nothing to do with BS6; it's to do with old cars overall, which find better demand in areas with lesser economic prosperity due to their dropping prices.

Sole exception is Delhi-NCR where the registration of cars expires after a certain period.

[fazayal]

I was going to post what GTO posted. The resale values of cars would actually improve slightly.

Along with the reasons provided by GTO, there is one more reason.

The used car price is mapped with price of new cars. With BS6 the price of new cars would increase and so would price of used cars in the market after mapping them with new car prices.

Eg. There are some cars like Innova whose prices have increased ridiculously. People who had bought older generation Innovas don't lose much while selling them even after using it for even 7-8 years!

[skarthiksr]

I have a slightly different question. It is clear that BS4 cars are more polluting than BS6. NGT has already imposed ban on older cars in Delhi. With the pollution levels in metropolitan cities already increasing, can NGT step in to impose any rules around BS4 vehicles? While the central government has announced that BS4 vehicles are valid till their period of registration, does NGT have special powers to bring any ban on BS4 vehicles?

[Vid6639]

No point in selling a BS4 car right now even if it is diesel. Resale value might end up increasing once there is a dearth of diesel cars in the market next year.

Maruti will not have diesel small cars, Skoda/Audi/VW have already planned petrol only for 2020 and may consider diesel BS6 only after seeing how the market reacts.

On top of that BS6 diesel cars will be more expensive especially those with SCR's.

So there will be a demand for used diesels for sure since they wont need Adblue.

Petrol won't have much impact and will remain similar is my guess.

[iamahunter]

Originally Posted by GTO

Nothing is going to happen to BS4 cars. In fact, in some cases, their depreciation might actually slow down! Say something like the Swift 1.3 diesel which is going to be discontinued. There is phenomenal demand for the car; now that people can't buy it new, they will definitely line up to buy it used (unless Maruti launches a Swift 1.5L diesel). Several such popular variants are going to be discontinued in April 2020.

This is very true. I sold my swift vdi 2011 and experienced this firsthand. Though the engine was very well maintained, the rusting had begun on doors, boot and bonnet. The car also had some traffic scars and a cracked windshield. Despite this my swift fetched a value of 2L. Which was surprisingly good for a car that had run a lakh kilometres and needed so much work for resale(rusting, tyres, suspension, windshield).

Against the swift I have gone for the ecosport tdci. This again is a bs4 model. Frankly speaking i was also worried about the resale value and stuff, but i also intend to keep the car for long (8-10 years). Post these many years, a person actually makes the car worth the money he's invested in it.

So the question really here would be, what would happen to the bs4 cars after 8-10 years from now. There would be more strict emission norms by then, probably no fossil fuel cars as well. Would i be able to drive my car that long...?

[Kosfactor]

Originally Posted by shankar.balan

I believe that all the BS4 and earlier cars will quietly end up in the rural belts of India, the way the earlier generations of cars have done.

This is true!

My 2016 Nano GenX was sold after 2.5 years. It is now in Tumkur , A few months after I sold it through a dealer I happened to meet my old faithful in Bangalore. It appeared to be a shopping trip for the new family. I followed it to the signal for a closer look - it was well maintained and still had those tiny little scratches in places that only I would notice

[jetsetgo08]

The ambiguity is still valid if we consider the compatibilty of BS6 diesel on BS4 diesel engines. If (any)BS4 diesel engines were to be found incompatible with BS6 diesel over a longer term, then the resale value of diesel cars will tank.

However, the intuitive mind says the GoI will not let such a disaster considering the number of non-BSVI vehicles on the road.

[speedmiester]

Value of BS4 Diesel cars is likely to go up as most manufacturers do not have BS6 Diesel engines ready in time for the deadline. For a customer looking at only diesel engine will be left with little options in the new car market, in turn driving the prices for used diesel cars.

[PrideRed]

Found this useful article addressing concerns of BS4 resale.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...w/72972857.cms . I for sure believe depreciation of diesel cars will stop for a while. I bought a Innova Crysta in 2017 for approx 18lacs , new one is now selling at about 21 lacs. With BS6, prices are set to shoot upto 23-24lacs. I would not be surprised If I find a buyer for 18lacs for a 3 year old car next year.

[silverado]

BS6 will mark a shift in buying pattern of users.

You can see a lot of SUV's coming out with petrol variants these days which would be much cheaper than diesel after BS6.
So buying a new Petrol makes sense than buying a second hand diesel.

Was trying to compare prices of Creta base petrol and Base diesel (1.4 ), was shocked to see that ex-showroom price is same.

[PrideRed]

Originally Posted by silverado

BS6 will mark a shift in buying pattern of users.

You can see a lot of SUV's coming out with petrol variants these days which would be much cheaper than diesel after BS6.
So buying a new Petrol makes sense than buying a second hand diesel.

If its compact SUV, yes petrol makes sense, not much with larger one's. For one large SUV warrant big petrol engine which still don't perform like a diesel unless it's a V6 belting out 250+HP(Which the manufacturers in India will not offer). Yes, they are quiet and smooth, but you will probably have to carry couple of fuel cans in the back. In Bangalore traffic where my tiny 0.8L Kwid gives 9-10KM/L, I can imagine what a 3L petrol SUV can deliver.

[silverado]

Originally Posted by PrideRed

If its compact SUV, yes petrol makes sense, not much with larger one's. For one large SUV warrant big petrol engine which still don't perform like a diesel unless it's a V6 belting out 250+HP(Which the manufacturers in India will not offer). .

Agreed, I was making a point in general and not SUV's in particular though my post actually sounded SUV specific
Was trying to explain that people will buy a new Petrol car instead of a second hand Diesel post BS6.