[sgiitk]

I came across this yesterday. I mostly agree with the conclusions.

*Predictions about 20 MAJOR RISKS TO GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKETS IN THE COMING YEARS (LONG TERM)*
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1. Most people will stop buying cars in a decade-and-a-half (a prediction that 95 percent of all US passenger miles traveled will be addressed by fleets, not individuals, by 2030).

2. People will increase renting of assets (over buying these) because they will never be sure of where they would be living a few years hence.

3. The cost of commute will become the 'next telecom' (virtually free, that is).

4. Most cars will be made from recycled steel, as a result of which, ore companies will go belly-up.

5. The large steel sector debt will not be able to be returned to banks.

6. Electric cars, with around 18 moving parts compared with 10,000 for the usual petrol-driven variety, would accelerate the death of the automobile components industry.

7. The demise of the auto component industry will affect the global alloys steel sector (including ore and ferro alloys).

8. Oil behemoths will not be able to repay their loans if oil consumption declined (elimination unlikely).

9. Electric vehicles will come with an unlimited warranty. Which means that after you once buy a vehicle, you would not need to buy another, ever.

10. Oil-based economies (Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Russia, Nigeria etc) will go into a crisis.

11. Much of the funding coming out of these countries into terrorism will disappear and the world will become a more peaceful place.

12. Cash-rich automotive lubricant companies will discover there is nothing to really lubricate.

13. 3D printing will even out the wage arbitrage between developed and developing nations.

14. Robotisation (or artificial intelligence) will clean out jobs (as it has in the banking sector, where business has grown disproportionately faster than recruitment).

15. A number of skills will become obsolete (microsurgical, for instance) because a robot will do it better.

16. Renewable energy will kick-start a long-term coal decline.

17. Large coal behemoths employing thousands will file for bankruptcy (already happening).

18. Banks will become a concept rather than a place, banks will become more about systems than people.

19. The world will move towards deflation arising out of an abundance of money and relatively limited spending.

20. The new retirement age will become 50 years (average).

[A M]

Completely . @Mods, please pardon me for this one.



If everything metioned above happens, I think India should start exploiting its own (limited) oil reserves rather than importing it. This way our cars can be easy on our pockets before they become obsolete.


And we all should move into food, FMCG or entertainment industry if we want to keep earning money.

[AJITHAAA]

Sell the car, invest 75% in oil, buy a horse with the leftover money. No pot hole riddled roads, no traffic jams, no red lights, the horse might even increase speed on seeing one. We can continue to horse power units. Its a win-win. Guess I will get a reprimand for this post.

[freedom]

Its the "big" guys who get affected by fuel price volatility, so obviously the F&O in fuel will only be used by the "big" guys. But given how people trade in Methi/Jira and what not in commodities exchange some people who are used to playing "satta" on anything and everything will trade in fuel F&O as well

Specifically for F&O I have always had a view that only delivery based trading should be allowed. All the traders who are least bothered about the underlying commodity but only create noise (volume) will get kicked out of the system and make it cleaner.


The whole argument that petrol/diesel is used by poor is a bad argument. Aam aadmi in our country doesn't have a car, jeep, truck, tractor or even a water pump.
The rich enjoyed "subsidies" for 60 years. Inspite of the stupid "Pumps Closed on Sunday" rule in early 90s subsidies on fuel continued.

Who was able to buy a car till early 90? Only the rich, not even middle class.
Who gets subsidies on LPG? Rich and Middle class. The lower class didnt even have access to LPG. OK some like me have given up this subsidy but its available if I want to claim it.

Today its become a fashion to complain about taxes on fuel. My only ask is people introspect and look at the facts rather than joining the chorus. Everyone wants everything that they buy to be cheaper and everything they sell to be pricier.

Let me also make it clear that don't try to mix "I pay my taxes..." or "roads are bad" and try to link it with this topic.

In my view we don't need cheap fuel. After all its an imported commodity.

[SmartCat]

Originally Posted by freedom

Specifically for F&O I have always had a view that only delivery based trading should be allowed. All the traders who are least bothered about the underlying commodity but only create noise (volume) will get kicked out of the system and make it cleaner.

"Cleaner" maybe, but expensive and hence useless. Volumes generated by speculators result in very tight bid-ask spreads, which makes hedging (by real users) possible. Those looking for "thrills" have many other avenues to play with their money anyway. Blocking speculators from commodity trading will achieve nothing.

[Carpainter]

Originally Posted by NiInJa

We have to also consider some grim realities of fiscal deficit and current account deficit. Only about 2% on the total population pays income tax (read: Salaried class). The government is trying to bring small businesses (which make enough money) under the tax fold but I am not sure how much time it is going to take, or if that will ever happen. Until the government finds a better way to get more money from other sources, our fiscal deficit is always going to be a problem. If they plan to tax more on people's income instead and lower excise duty, it is the only the 2% which is going to feel the pinch while those who don't pay taxes enjoy lower fuel rates.

Fiscal deficit and non payment of income tax is a big problem in India but it has been there since independence. While I agree that these things need to be resolved, there is still the govt. running the office based on votebank equations. Why on earth was the petrol rates didn't go up before the Karnataka polls while crude oil price was going up. Why the price is not coming down when the international price has come down a little bit (probably 3 dollars a barrel). There is no point arguing in this topic because there will be logic for and against the situations. Whatever they decide, we just have to accept it that's all.

Originally Posted by sgiitk

I came across this yesterday. I mostly agree with the conclusions.

*Predictions about 20 MAJOR RISKS TO GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKETS IN THE COMING YEARS (LONG TERM)*
--------------------------------------


9. Electric vehicles will come with an unlimited warranty. Which means that after you once buy a vehicle, you would not need to buy another, ever.

While I agree some of these will actually happen, I don't see this particular point coming true ever. Cars are not just about warranty and faulty parts. As we grow old with our cars, we attach some values with it and at the same time we get bored as well. Here I'm talking about say 8-10 years of ownership. Some might get bored with his car even sooner depending on the car itself and the owner. Also, there will be innovation as long as mankind will roam around the world. So a battery powered car of today will get obsolete at some point of time as newer cars with newer features or more battery efficiency and engine power will come out, not to mention the design side of it. So it's highly unlikely that buying a new car will be a thing of the past for existing car owners.

[NiInJa]

Originally Posted by Carpainter

Why on earth was the petrol rates didn't go up before the Karnataka polls while crude oil price was going up. Why the price is not coming down when the international price has come down a little bit (probably 3 dollars a barrel).

This post of mine is grossly
I agree, that is one area which I am not very proud of as an Indian. The reason why political parties dont increase prices of any critical commodities (not just oil) before election is because people (mostly from rural areas) can easily get swayed away with such price hikes and change their minds at the last moment. It can create issues for the incumbent parties. Its an open secret which no political party will ever confess, but people are paid in cash to get votes especially in rural areas (I have seen it with my own eyes). Such people with integrity issues can easily be turned around by opposition using rising oil prices as their card.

[sgiitk]

@Carpainter; I just picked up from another site. I may no agree with the conclusions overall, but I did see some sense in the analysis. Let us wait and see,