[Redline6800]

I work from home - so kms driven have dropped drastically to only about 100 km a month.

It is not hard to see why many don't want to drive anymore.

When I do take the car out - I am shocked by the state of traffic in Bangalore !

Terrible gridlock, constant honking, poor driving skills/lack of anticipation to avoid accidents, lack of consideration to fellow motorists or pedestrians, speedbreakers - almost everywhere, the new breed of ride-hire cabs that are happy to brush past your carefully maintained car and speed away and two-wheeler riders also doing the same.

Elections have meant that the moon craters we have for roads have been covered up but I expect that they will not last beyond the next monsoon.

The only fun I have is revving the car in 1st and 2nd gear all the way to the 6800 rpm redline - when a gap of a few 100 metres opens up.

My wife travels a distance of 11km - in anywhere between 45 mins to 75 mins

Highway driving is also stressful - the urge more often than not is to take a flight and then hire a car for local driving.

That said, we will always have a car or two at home. If you love cars, there is no other way.

Try getting a cab when it rains! and most cabs have shoddy/grimy interiors with the drivers often sleeping in their cars to achieve their targets or worse falling asleep at the wheel.

My most important learning ?
Invest in a good music system to drown out the din and honking, learn to parallel park and find a good garage, where you can get your car painted/touched up for far less than the showroom

Oh and our next car will have an automatic transmission for sure!

[chiranjitp]

Interesting topic, it does seem like that the car sales are dropping in the Metro cities & I also believe that the drop in sales will be even more in the coming years. Here are a list of the reasons I could think of:

• First factor has to be the increase in traffic congestion, most of the metro cities have become extremely crowded. Even in a small city like Guwahati, the roads are overcrowded with cars.

• The Ola, Uber revolution. As of today, one can manage without having a personal car thanks to these apps based taxi companies, they are very user friendly & easy on the pocket too. But this dream seems like that it will be a short lived one, the fares are now increasing at an alarming rate, the driver incentives have also gone down.

• Rapid rise in use of 2 wheelers within the cities. The 2 wheelers are a big boon in our congested city roads, especially the gearless scooters.

• The used car market is more mature than ever (especially in the metro cities), Preowned car nowadays doesn't have to necessarily mean an old Maruti 800, you can buy many modern cars (e.g i10, Swift, Figo) within a low budget. Hence, I believe many people nowadays are going the Preowned way while buying a car.

[petroguzzler]

Originally Posted by smartcat

In FY18, car sales in Mumbai dropped 20%. Bangalore car sales dropped 10%. Chennai is down 5%. New Delhi is up 1% despite coming from a much lower base (diesel ban) in the previous year.

Informative thread smartcat.

If data was available segment wise, it would have been even more interesting. I'm willing to bet that the luxury segment (>30-40 lakhs) wouldn't have seen a drop as these are generally less elastic and customers in this segment don't use Uber/Ola and other public transportation options frequently.

[Olympal]

I wanted to replace my 5 year old Duster with a Jeep Compass. But gave up the idea due to the following:
Have a second car, a Polo for local, short highway drives.
Find myself hailing a Uber, Ola than taking out my own car due to traffic congestion, parking problems.
For long distance trips, flight or train plus local cabs are a better option.
Rented an XUV 500 self drive when five of us had to travel. The cost was reasonable and experience satisfactory.
So when public transport plus the occasional car renting satisfies your need, investing Rs.20Lakh plus in a Jeep Compass does not make sound business sense anymore.
Rather, invest the money in a relatively 'safe' mutual fund giving 10% return and you can meet a good part of you big car rental cost from the ROI.
In addition, you will save Rs.50,000 yearly on insurance and servicing. Besides, EMI on Rs.20Lakh should be around 45000 per month for five years.
With declining utility value of a personal car, increasing cost of new car, it does not make sense to invest in an expensive vehicle any more.

[MaxTorque]

Like most of our members commented the parking problems, choked roads, and availability of ride-sharing options might have contributed to decline in car sales numbers of metro cities. But the ride-sharing apps are not much popular beyond Tier-II cities (correct me if I am wrong). So the sales of those cities/towns may be contributing to overall sales figures.

Another factor could be the car affordability might have reached a saturation level. Similar to real estate prices. Probably the proposed vehicle scrapping scheme may lift the numbers.

My personal experience, during our last trip to India. I was planning to buy a pre-owned car. But after reaching Pune and seeing the traffic conditions, I changed my mind and managed one month with Uber and Ola. We spent approximately INR.6000 for short trips and after reaching back in Australia as a pleasant surprise we got a good amount as cashback.

[ajmat]

At the moment, I do not commute.

I dislike starting up my Jetta for short 2-3 km trips not good for the car or the environment. If I have to, I take a longish drive to warm the car up. Jetta is used for trips outside city centre.

For all other things, I use the Swift.

When I renew my garage - it would be perhaps - one classic car or a big secondhand gas guzzler for the fun of driving and a premium hatchback/small SUV for everything else

[omishra]

I calculated my car ownership cost for last 10 years, 2007 to 2017.
I have invested ₹8.25L, with ₹7L of loan which after repayment of 5 years was paid as total ₹9.45L. My car costed me ₹10.7L.
After 10 years odometer reading was 64K km. In that duration, I spent ~₹1.2L on insurance, ₹3.5L on fuel (petrol), ₹1.5L on service plus consumables. No accidents involved. No parking charges considered. Total expenditure was ₹7.7L. After 10 years I sold that car for ₹2.5L. That was good price.

Without driver salary for 64K km I spent, 10.7+7.7-2.5= 15.9L, it comes ₹24.83/KM. If I could have added driver salary then equation changes. Now nothing in my hand, neither car nor money.

In 2018, I don't have car and wanted buy new car. But app based cabs charging me ~₹10-15 per KM with driver. Surge prices are nullified by many other rebates and offers. No tension of maintaining and driving a car. If I invest that money in good plan then I can get that amount doubled in coming 7.5 years. My car parking earning me maintenance cost of my housing society, yes I rented it. For 2-3km trip, I have gearless scooter.

Why to bother buying a car!!!

[StarrySky]

I talked recently to my cousin based in Bangalore. Both she and her husband are young professionals under 30. They bought a car soon after their wedding. But these days, they hardly use it.
- For office commute, they use office cabs.
- Most of their shopping (including groceries) is done online.
- When they go out for dinner/movie over the weekend, they hail a cab - I guess their logic is, we are going to unwind and have some fun, so they take the tension of driving?

I guess they won't think of buying another car as long as they are in Bangalore. Many other couples like them may not buy one at all.

[400notout]

Originally Posted by omishra

Why to bother buying a car!!!

Very few buy a car because its economical. Its mostly status, comfort, convenience or because you really enjoy driving. The Car always has been a depreciating asset. For me, owning an automobile is about independence. Yes traffic can get annoying, but I'm better off in my air conditioned car with my favourite music on. I can take a train and reach my work place in half-n hr at a cost of 180 rs a month conveniently. But I prefer driving 10 kms to work, it costs me 4k in fuel bills a month. But that drive to and fro is where my mind de-stresses, relaxes and yes I have my privacy. It any day beats commuting with a crowd or being chauffeured by a stranger. One can't put a cost on every aspect of life.

Originally Posted by StarrySky

I guess their logic is, we are going to unwind and have some fun, so they take the tension of driving?

It works better if you are going to have a drink. Better take a cab than drink and drive.

Also why buy a car if driving is a tension? If one finds peace in hailing a cab, then definitely do that. I too know well paid executives who cab-carpool to work than take other public transport or buy a car. These people have found a lifestyle in which car ownership makes no sense.

I wish all cities have a robust and convenient public transport system so that the roads are left for people who love to drive.

[hiren.mistry]

I can understand the trend, and its logical. Atleast for a city like Bombay. I've been in the UK for the past 2 years, the metro work in the Western suburbs had just about started then. I was back home for a couple of months in November last year and was shocked at the state of traffic. It took me almost 2 hours from Borivali to JVPD via the WEH, 2 hours for a distance of around 20 KMS. Got feb up after a couple of times, I took the train and would complete the journey in around an hour.

Now with the metro work progressing well, and the project nearing completion by end of 2019, I'm sure the car sales figures will drop further. Also it doesn't help that moderately aspirational cars like the Honda City, Hyundai Verna and now the Toyota Yaris are touching INR 17L in onroad costs.

I'm slated to return home soon with plans of getting one of these. But now reading what the team has posted, it's making a lot of sense to NOT buy a car, atleast not a new one. My 2 cents...

[V.Narayan]

In 10 to 15 years step by step the road infrastructure in our larger top 10 cities will improve. I see it already happening even in cities which are in the 11 to 25 bucket by size. Till then the road squeeze will exist. Infrastructure takes time to build and in India with land acquisition and courts granting stay orders quite easily road & rail building has its challenges. In the past we have faced these infrastructure bottlenecks in other sectors where they have been solved - telecommunications (which we now take completely for granted); air travel - easy access and relatively cheap - gone are the days of standing with a waiting list ticket eagerly hoping the Indian Airlines clerk will yell out your name; power - still work in progress but getting better - some distance to go and so on. India has metro links operational or under construction for service by 2021 in 20 cities with a further 11 under preparation of land acquisition etc. And more flyovers and elevated throughways are being built than ever before. Within 8 kms of my residence as the crow flies in the last 3 years more than 10 underpass or flyover projects have been commissioned. Bangalore seems to be the laggard here relative to its needs.

Even in my home town of Lucknow I see road infrastructure, on the main arteries at least, remarkably better than 10 to 15 years back and metros are now being constructed in several cities. The potential of car sales in tier III and IV towns has yet to reach maturity. I see this as a blip of 2 years driven by temporary constraints. The changes in social behavior of the young are true but the young well paid upper middle class youth living in the 6 big metros is only a tiny segment of our society. When I tour to my smaller branches in Tier II towns my engineers insist I don't hire a cab for the day and instead let them drive me around in their cars which they are all so very proud of. Different strokes for different folks.

[Waspune]

Originally Posted by 400notout

Very few buy a car because its economical. Its mostly status, comfort, convenience or because you really enjoy driving. The Car always has been a depreciating asset. For me, owning an automobile is about independence. Yes traffic can get annoying, but I'm better off in my air conditioned car with my favourite music on. I can take a train and reach my work place in half-n hr at a cost of 180 rs a month conveniently. But I prefer driving 10 kms to work, it costs me 4k in fuel bills a month. But that drive to and fro is where my mind de-stresses, relaxes and yes I have my privacy. It any day beats commuting with a crowd or being chauffeured by a stranger. One can't put a cost on every aspect of life.

Here I totally agree with you . In fact in economical sense it doesn't make any sense to buy a car or even buy a flat in big cities in today's world. The way we can utilize cabs we can live on rent as well and say no to big and hefty EMIs.
I drive to and fro from home to office and back and cover 40 kms daily in this pursuit. When I get up in the morning I look forward to driving and listening to my favorite songs. At times when the traffic gets worse I concentrate on the songs more. While returning home in the night more than often I get very less traffic and I enjoy the drive.

Originally Posted by 400notout

I wish all cities have a robust and convenient public transport system so that the roads are left for people who love to drive.

Waiting for that day eagerly

[SmartCat]

Originally Posted by 400notout

roads are left for people who love to drive.

Amen! I too look forward to the day when roads are exclusively used by people who -

- live to drive (enthusiasts) and
- drive to live (cabbies)

[samaspire]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

In 10 to 15 years step by step the road infrastructure in our larger top 10 cities will improve.

Hope the same applies to smaller towns where it will be a lot easier to implement. Better would be if the government had a vision to get ahead of the curve instead of playing catch up with the growing vehicular density.

I see it already happening even in cities which are in the 11 to 25 bucket by size.

BTW, what is "bucket by size"?

When I tour to my smaller branches in Tier II towns my engineers insist I don't hire a cab for the day and instead let them drive me around in their cars which they are all so very proud of. Different strokes for different folks

The smaller towns will behave exactly how the current metro folk behaved years ago - owning a vehicle brought a sense of achievement and defined success.

Originally Posted by smartcat

- drive to live (cabbies)

You mean these guys?

[V.Narayan]

Originally Posted by samaspire

Hope the same applies to smaller towns where it will be a lot easier to implement. Better would be if the government had a vision to get ahead of the curve instead of playing catch up with the growing vehicular density.

Two Govt's in our country genuinely focused on creating infrastructure. The first was the Nehru Govt which through the 5 year plans in the '50s and '60s laid the ground for the first round of infrastructure post-independence. Regardless of our individual take on his socialist policies and license raj outcome fact is a lot of infrastructure got built especially in - roads, ports (Vizag, Paradip, Kandla), rail electrification, steel, radio stations, dams etc. The second time a Govt has seriously made an effort is the current one. I believe things will improve but be prepared for our trademark two steps forward one step back style.

BTW, what is "bucket by size"?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...lation#1_to_25
List of Indian cities by population with Coimbatore, Agra and Madurai at positions 23, 24 & 25.

The smaller towns will behave exactly how the current metro folk behaved years ago - owning a vehicle brought a sense of achievement and defined success.

Yes. With pride. And almost always it is the first car the family has ever owned. So while the Young Upwardly mobile in the metros are cutting back on car purchases the upwardly mobile families of the Tier II and III and IV are booking their first cars. Just an example. My two older children who earn well haven't gone for a car purchase for the very reasons put forth on this thread. But my drivers son (age 25) who works in their village (about 75 kms outside Delhi) has bought a brand new Baleno by pooling together family resources! One door closes another opens.