[samaspire]

Now, why would someone upgrading from a Creta, look for a car that is cheaper or priced the same as the Creta? The whole point of upgrading (for most) is to buy something more expensive and better.

[nainan]

Originally Posted by Jeevith

but I don't believe their only (or rather overwhelming) target is the Creta. I.e., the 5000 units aren't all going to come from Creta (think XUV, Scorpio, Tucson).

As per car sales the XUV posts 2000, Scorpio posts 3000, Tuscon 200 and the Compass at 1000 so all adding upto 6200 cars. The Creta alone is 11000 per month.
So even if they have targeted any of the above they should be expecting very meagre gains.

What I believe happened is that with the initial success of the Compass has driven the feature list, pricing expectation and marketing but given where the Compass stands now I dont think there is a large market for an expensive 5 seater.

Now the 5000+ number is arrived at from some calculations I made based on public statements from Tata motors:-

When it comes to Harrier provide a number that will make you happy?
In the next three years premium could be 15-20% of the SUV segment, or 7-8% of the total market of 3.5 million vehicles.

source

Actually the way he puts it is difficult to interpret but the 3.5 million is total yearly sales and his expectation of the premium segment is 7-8 % of that which is 245000 - 280000 per year which translates to 20500-23000 pm. Even if they consider 30% penetration of this market as a success that itself is 6000+ vehicles per month.

So for the Harrier to be a moderate performer they would need sales of 13000-7487=5513 and for the Harrier to be a huge success it would need to sell 17000-7487=9513 cars.

#732 of this thread

Tata has stated that their goal from the Harrier is to become No:3 in the Indian market. The difference between Tata and Mahindra over the last two years has been roughly between 3000-7000 so to ensure they are No: 3 consistently is going to be selling 7000 odd more vehicles per month.

Even if we consider the 45X the XUV 300 in a similar price/opportunity bracket will offset the same so this will be on the Harrier as Tata anticipates.

"We feel very comfortable as far as onward journey is concerned. Harrier plays a fundamental role as it is expected to get us one step forward to a sustainable number three position," Butschek said.

source

IMHO this is an attempt to create a new segment (albeit not a very differtiated one), wherein the difference between the Creta and the Harrier may not be as broad as the Brezza and the Creta, but somewhere in the thereabouts.

Their idea of a segment is very different from the one you outline and the Creta is probably the one competitor which can be considered close to the same segment as per the segment definition given by Mayank Pareek.

Looking ahead, we are expectant of Harrier, our first monocoque SUV to be a game-changer in urban UVs segment. Built on the legendary D8 Discovery Sport architecture (Omega Arc), it is all set to herald the urban UV revolution in India.

source

Also, the Brezza top end manual variant cost 10 lakhs (ex-showroom) where as the Creta costs 15 lakhs. Not exactly half like you suggested.

I was comparing the top end versions in Bengaluru which is :-

19 lakh vs 13 lakh well 1.5 times

source

[motorworks]

My view on the pricing and positioning of the Harrier. I think Tata is going to price it as a Creta rival. I initially thought that the Harrier would sort of start somewhere around the mid variants of the Creta, so my initial guess was 15-16 on road and going all the way to 20.

But when I look at the variants of the Harrier, the base variant is quite bare bones! Almost like the E and E plus variants of the Creta! How can anyone think of a Tata car at 15-16 lakhs with almost no equipment and features.

This makes me think that the base is squarely aimed at the E and E plus of the Creta, so probably 12-13 lakhs on road and then the mid and higher variants go up to 18-19, same like thr Creta. This is the only route they have available now. Even the XUV500 base is at 16 and is not so badly featured.

Sure, the Compass has a bare bones variant at 19 on road, but if you look at sales that is probably the least sold variant and in any case volumes at 19-25 lakh bracket are not even 2k units a month when you combine Tucson and the compass. So for sure Tata is not looking at that.

[CrAzY dRiVeR]

Originally Posted by nainan

Now the 5000+ number is arrived at from some calculations I made based on public statements from Tata motors:-

Actually the way he puts it is difficult to interpret but the 3.5 million is total yearly sales and his expectation of the premium segment is 7-8 % of that which is 245000 - 280000 per year which translates to 20500-23000 pm. Even if they consider 30% penetration of this market as a success that itself is 6000+ vehicles per month.

I highly doubt this. TATA Motors will very much be aware that the figures in this price range will be lesser than lower segments.

Doesn't make sense for them to announce a target which is higher than that of the Nexon.

[S.MJet]

Originally Posted by nainan

Now the 5000+ number is arrived at from some calculations I made based on public statements from Tata motors:-

Based on their statements, your calculations looks logical, but this would be their aspiration 2 to 3 years down the line with both 5 & 7 seater launched.

Originally Posted by CrAzY dRiVeR

Doesn't make sense for them to announce a target which is higher than that of the Nexon.

Agree.
If we look at overall Tata Motors' brand value, targeting more than what Nexon is doing will be day dreaming. If they are able to achieve what XUV500 is doing (2000-3000 per month), I will call it a big success.

[Sebring]

I dont agree with you. Targets are always optimistic! Segment leader Creta is doing between 9K and 14K, per month. Tata Motors wants a share of that. But right now all talk is speculative until prices are announced. Let's watch that space!

Originally Posted by S.MJet

Targeting more than what Nexon is doing will be day dreaming

[CrAzY dRiVeR]

Originally Posted by CrAzY dRiVeR

Hexa XE v/s Harrier XE.

Pedigree monocoque v/s Proper rugged body-on-frame.
All wheel disc brakes.
Bigger in every dimension.
Comes in 6 or 7 seater options in XE variant.

Dual ABS and airbags standard (Same as in Harrier)
Gets Corner Stability Control standard. (Harrier gets only in XZ).

Gets Harman Infotainment + 4 speakers (No touchscreen version) compared to nothing in Harrier XE.
Gets 8 way adjustable drivers seat compared to 4 way ones in Harrier XE.
Comes in the Pearl White, Silver and their highlight colour of blue. Harrier comes only in white like some taxi base variant!

Now if Hexa XE is priced at 12.5L, how much does Harrier XE justify?

Qouting my own post - Looks like corrections have started, taking out features from Hexa instead of adding features to Harrier.

From Jan 1st - Hexa XE loses the Harman Infotainment + 4 speakers setup as qouted above, just two weeks back.

[neoonwheels]

Originally Posted by Sebring

I dont agree with you. Targets are always optimistic! Segment leader Creta is doing between 9K and 14K, per month. Tata Motors wants a share of that. But right now all talk is speculative until prices are announced. Let's watch that space!

Brezza is doing 14k per month? Nexon is still not able to go beyond 5K even when Brezza is clocking numbers with ease. Now reputation wise, Hyundai and Maruti are not too different. So getting numbers from Creta is not going to be a simple task for sure.

[damodar]

Originally Posted by neoonwheels

Brezza is doing 14k per month? Nexon is still not able to go beyond 5K even when Brezza is clocking numbers with ease.

Nexon is being retailed through 650 odd TATA showrooms against 2200 showrooms of Maruti. It's will be highly impossible for Nexon to reach Brezza numbers looking at the difference in pan India reach of both the products.

[vibbs]

Originally Posted by damodar

Nexon is being retailed through 650 odd TATA showrooms against 2200 showrooms of Maruti. It's will be highly impossible for Nexon to reach Brezza numbers looking at the difference in pan India reach of both the products.

True. That's a brilliant point which I bring out very often.

Why Maruti sells so many cars has to be attributed in no small means to their reach as well.

Tata actually manages to sell more Nexon per dealership on an average than what Maruti manages out of Brezza.

Harrier will take customer from not just Creta, but from many others like XUV, Compass, Scorpio, Hexa.

What that number will be, perhaps needs to be seen.

[ACM]

With all the talk about Creta doing 11,000/mth Vs rest put together doing about 6,000/mth.

The point to be considered is that before Creta all put together cars in 17L-25L segment were not even doing 6K/mth. (Excluding earlier Innova)

Further there would be people buying a Creta E or Ex version instead of Nexon XTA, or Breeza ZX.

[Palio_2005]

Any premium over Creta and this car is dead. As it is buyers are reluctant to put any money on expensive Tata cars. Aria/Hexa/Safari are examples. Not giving enough features is another shortcoming. People don't care if you have LR underpinnings, 6 airbags, TC system, ESP. Give them jazzy music system, lounge lighting, autofolding mirrors, auto dimming mirror, lots of chrome and then you have a winner. I don't think this will sell more than 1000 units/month

[neoonwheels]

Originally Posted by vibbs

True. That's a brilliant point which I bring out very often.

Why Maruti sells so many cars has to be attributed in no small means to their reach as well.

Tata actually manages to sell more Nexon per dealership on an average than what Maruti manages out of Brezza.

Harrier will take customer from not just Creta, but from many others like XUV, Compass, Scorpio, Hexa.

What that number will be, perhaps needs to be seen.

Originally Posted by damodar

Nexon is being retailed through 650 odd TATA showrooms against 2200 showrooms of Maruti. It's will be highly impossible for Nexon to reach Brezza numbers looking at the difference in pan India reach of both the products.

My whole point is, assuming Harrier will bring Creta numbers is a tough task.

Given how bare-bones the lower variant of Harrier is, Creta mid-top variant customers wont go for it. Top end Harrier is well loaded which would retail at 21L (As per TATA tweets, again city not sure), the difference between top end Creta and top end Harrier would probably be 2-3L and then it misses on features like sunroof and some.

I am waiting to see the beast in person and take a call to go for it or not . Secretly, I am also hoping for Compass to get more discounts, just to have another option.

[ACM]

Just a point in addition to what I wrote recently.

Those comparing the number of outlets of TATA and Maruti and noting that Nexon sells more per outlet compared to Breeza are missing the observation that Maruti sells a lot more per outlet overall compared to TATA. And that maruti also has a lot more products to sell over those outlets. TATA will not come even close let alone favourable compared to Maruti in the reach nor sales per outlet parameter.

Coming back to the Harrier. It is the Harrier itself that has to sell on it's own merits. Creta from Hyundai has managed to outsell the SCross launched at the same time by Maruti purely on product pricing combined equation. Maruti got it wrong and Hyundai beat it though it as a brand is also multiple times smaller.

Similarly if TATA gets the product pricing combined equation right it will beat its competitors or create a new segment of it's own like the Creta.

When the Creta was launched though the product was liked it was and is even now considered very overpriced, but it sells by the 10K truckloads.

Every company does a survey before launching a product. It takes views of people it considers its customers not just experts. This is a test of the Marketing dept.

Let's hope that those who did the survey and marketing for Aria are not involved.

[antz.bin]

Adding fuel to the Nexon-Brezza fire.

Nexon is available in 650 Tata Motors dealerships and sell ~5000/ month? That's 7.7 / dealership / month.

Brezza sells ~14000/ month from just ~150 Nexa dealerships (not 2200 Maruti dealers). That's 93 / dealership / month. That's 12 times the number. Tata has a lot of catching up to do.

Coming back to Harrier. Any idea what percentage of the Creta sales are for the Diesel Manual? That's the market being targeted by the Harrier.