[vigneshkumar31]

On the penultimate year before the clock strikes VI, despite manufacturers continuing to launch a slew of diesels, it would be wise and logical to wait for the change to effect and settle down before plonking hard cash on our next car.

But what about the stock in VIN 19?

1.Would manufacturers pre-emptively restrict supply sensing market caution?

2.Which means during Q4 2019 when the lull would be at its peak, would the last BS IVs be pushed out with huge discounts?

3.Does a moderate risk taking customer bite the bait and drive the last of the Bs4 s home at a discount (say, Rupees x) because come the VI and the favourite diesel car he was waiting for is only going to get dearer by a few lacks(Rupees Y) .Net net does he gamble of the future poor resale with the upfront (x+y) he saved? If he is going to hold the car for long (7yrs+) then the resale blow will be softened to some extent?

3.What about the current BS4 cars? Is their resale value scheduled to hit rock bottom already?

4.There is an industry wide cloak on the changing weather, because manufacturers seem to be pretending its all bright and sunny, launching cars left and right, whilst a storm brews right behind.

[rajshenoy]

Interesting read. While I understand the main concern is of buying a Diesel car now, considering the expected resale hitting rock bottom.

However i am wondering what will happen to say 5 year older cars now. Suppose I want to sell my 5 year old diesel car post 2020 ?

If one is looking at 4-5 year old scenario, diesel was still preferred choice and these cars might be on sale around 2020. Due to BS-VI, new diesel cars will anyway become more pricier and thus the resale for older cars might just hold their value according to me.

Genuine Diesel buyers will be forced to buy a used car instead of paying over a lakh more. Imagine someone buying a Petrol variant of XUV, Innova or similar car !!
However the resale values of diesel Swift, Dzire etc might just hit rock-bottom since the petrol variants of these return still healthy economy and power.

Then we have the likes of Brezza, Marazzo Hexa etc which are purely diesel motors.

I guess Hatch and small sedan buyers might prefer the petrol and MPVs and SUVs which are mainly bought for sheer pulling power and fuel economy might continue to sell even in used market.

P.S: I am not considering the scenario of states banning the diesel cars post 10 years. This to me seems unfair because a well maintained car can still pollute less as compared to producing a brand new car on road

[sgiitk]

@vigneshkumar31; I think we better accept that Diesel will soon be a relic. The mods and additions required will be massive. Remember we were not aware of SPM 0.25. This issue probably killed the diesel. The fact we did not go through BS-V has its own ills. Afaik one of the main reasons was that the 'sarkari' refineries were unwilling to (or incapable of) making BS-V fuels in time. They needed a massive (almost total) revamp to meet BS-V and BS-VI requirements. Also, selling fuel at (or below) cost price did not help.

Remember even for BS-III and IV testing many manufacturers preferred using Reliance fuels.

[Turrrb0]

Seeing how new car prices have been skyrocketing across all segments, to me this just comes as more bad news, more kerosene poured on the already large fire. Sad...

Hopefully to substitute for the obvious fun factor which the small Turbo-Diesel cars have over their asthmatic and anaemic petrol counterparts, our auto manufacturers also make available some worthy petrol engined options for us.

For eg. a Polo with no diesel and only that 1.0L 3 cyl NA petrol?

[sparky@home]

In this matter, how is the goverment planning to control the pollution from the heavy vehicles. They cant definitely ban them, viz the indian lifeline, the trucks. To convert them to electric vehicles, will probably be very wishful thinking. Who will bell the cat?

[vigneshkumar31]

Originally Posted by sgiitk

@vigneshkumar31; I think we better accept that Diesel will soon be a relic. The mods and additions required will be massive. Remember we were not aware of SPM 0.25. This issue probably killed the diesel. The fact we did not go through BS-V has its own ills. Afaik one of the main reasons was that the 'sarkari' refineries were unwilling to (or incapable of) making BS-V fuels in time. They needed a massive (almost total) revamp to meet BS-V and BS-VI requirements. Also, selling fuel at (or below) cost price did not help.

Remember even for BS-III and IV testing many manufacturers preferred using Reliance fuels.

I completely agree with you sir. Diesels have been vilified enough and more that they have been deemed to be the sole perpetrators of pollution in our country.

Living in delhi, with soot and ash to breathe instead of oxygen, I'm one of the first to support and embrace any steps towards better environment for our kids. I feel responsible each time my son coughs. In that sense the BS6 puts us at par with euro 6 and even ahead of US (who anyway blissfully live in denial.)

But the govt/NGT s uninformed knee jerks humour us/scare and affect us financially.

Let's go with my personal example. I purchased a large 2.2 diesel in 2013. The actual car to build, costed only 50 percent of what I paid.the other 50 percent were various forms of tax and road building funds and cash I pay to the establishment for the volume my car occupies on God's green earth. That day the establishment and I entered into a 50-50 partnership to ply the roads for 15 years. If the large diesel is polluting, we were both partners in crime.

Suddenly , pollution becomes a real concern, the easiest thing to drive a pike through and call a devil is the diesel.so ban all 10 yr diesels without a fleeting thought.

My vehicle is essentially scrap in 2/3rds of it's life and the resale has plummeted both literally and artificially thanks to greasy second hand dealers who remind you that it's scrap.

While I endure this alone, my partner in crime, who I paid for 15 years-the establishment, sits back and enjoys the new found moral high ground.

Phew that's my rant for the day! Lol.

But I have to disagree with you that diesels will become a relic. They may eventually, but not in the near future. we simply lack viable alternatives for the large pulling diesels. At least for the near future, diesels will conform to VI standards and putter along at least in the large SUV guise which has few petrol alternatives.the truck and commercial sector are totally diesel drinkers.

Yes confirming to VI is expensive, but not unviable. It's an unavoidable need of the hour. There are already BS6 ready and compliant engines around.

Speaking about fuel, We have already shifted to BS6 fuel since last year in delhi completely and the IV cars are drinking VI fuel and breathing fine.

Even if another knee jerk puts an ev in each house, as long as the electric power to our houses comes from burning coal, we are just polluting elsewhere.

The fill it shut it forget it IC engines will endure this decade, albeit with a frown on the face and a little more dearer wallet.

Size a problem? With biturbos, we can sure shrink the diesels but can't kill them.Ban the 2 litres and manufacturers will bring in a 1.99 in a blink, and we will buy that too.

I agree that the next car will be the last IC engine we will and should be driving as we all ride into an electric future.

But the museums have to wait for a while...not yet.

[SS-Traveller]

One question that does not appear to have been answered here, is the question of technical challenges and complexities that the different players - government, oil companies, automobile manufacturers, as well as the end user of the automobile - face, or are about to face, in the shift from BS4 to BS6.

A. The government
- needs to invest an estimated Rs.80,000 crores at least, to upgrade its refineries to produce BS6 fuel (= reduced sulphur and polyaromatic hydrocarbon [PAH] content).
- has to decide whether BS6 will follow the same stringent standards as Euro-VI, or there will be dilutions. We already know that Euro-VI gasoline is RON 95, whereas BS6 petrol will be both RON91 and RON95. PAH in Euro-VI diesel is 8% max, whereas BS6 diesel has decided to go with 11% max.
- needs to formulate a set of India-specific standardised test cycles to check new as well as used cars.
- has to bring in stringent legislation as well as an enforcement system that will force automobile manufacturers as well as users to keep their vehicles conformed to BS6, without the use of defeat devices and / or after-market modifications that bypass emission control systems.

B. Oil companies
- need to set up supplies of BS6 fuels to automobile manufacturers for testing under Indian conditions.
- need to set up and monitor separate pipelines and supply chains for BS4 and BS6 fuels during the transition stage.
- have to have massive upgrade of their refining setup to produce BS6 fuel.
- need to ensure availability of the newer fuel at their pumps from the first day of implementation of the BS6 rule.
- must monitor contamination and adulteration of BS6 fuels.
- need to provide engine oils compatible with BS6 engines (broadly speaking, only synthetic oils are compatible with Euro-VI/BS6 standards).
- have to take care of increased emissions at the refinery end when producing BS6 fuels and oils.

C. Automobile manufacturers
- must re-engineer existing engines, fuel systems and electronic control modules for BS6 emissions.
- have to address technology transfer agreements in cases where royalty is being paid to other companies for use of their engines (the 1.3L FIAT diesel engine being a major case in point).
- need to modify vehicle bodies and dimensions to accommodate particulate filters, oxidation catalysts, selective catalytic reduction [SCR] units and AdBlue tanks, and/or lean NOx traps [LNT].

D. Automobile owners / users
- need to pay the elevated cost of owning a BS6 vehicle, including purchase as well as service costs.
- must be aware that BS6 fuels and oils are different from BS4.
- should avoid certain after-market modifications, including tuning and exhaust upgrades, to keep their vehicles BS6 compliant.
- should be aware that BS3 and BS4 vehicles are likely to be taken off the streets and registrations cancelled, especially in the major cities, in the short to medium term.


So what's different between the BS4 and BS6 car?

The parameters being regulated are CO (carbon monoxide), HC (hydrocarbons), NOx (nitrogen oxides) and PM (particulate matter).

For gasoline engines the CO (1.0 gm/km) & HC (0.1 gm/km) parameters remain the same, while NOx emission limit for BS6 is reduced by 25% in comparison to BS4 (0.08 to 0.06 grams/km). PM (not assessed in BS4) limit in BS6 is 6.0*10^11 particles/km or 0.005 g/km.

For diesel engines the CO parameter remain the same (0.5 g/km), while HC+NOx emission limit for BS6 is reduced by 43% in comparison to BS4 (0.30 to 0.17 grams/km). PM (0.025 g/km in BS4) limit in BS6 is 0.005g/km or 6.0*10^11 particles/km, a reduction of 80%.

To achieve the new (reduced) parameters, there are essentially 2 methods employed:
1. In-cylinder control changes; and
2. Addition of after-treatment devices to the exhaust.

For petrol engines, in-cylinder control changes include:
1a. Air-fuel management for leaner cold start leading to lowered emissions in cold engines;
1b. Turbocharging;
1c. Changes to valve, injection and ignition timing for reduced NOx production;
1d. Electronic monitoring of the combustion process;
1e. Improved EGR systems with fine-tuned electronic control.

For diesel engines, in-cylinder control changes include:
1a. Higher injection pressures using third generation common rail fuel injection systems with pressures of 1800-2000 bar;
1b. Turbocharging using variable geometry turbochargers for improved air-fuel management;
1c. Variable valve & injection timings for reduced NOx production and regeneration of DPF (has a penalty in terms of fuel efficiency);
1d. Electronic monitoring of the combustion process & redesigned inlet & exhaust ports;
1e. Improved EGR systems including motor-actuated control of EGR system.

For petrol engines, after treatment devices include:
2a. Improved 3-way catalytic converter (3WCC)
2b. Gasoline particulate filters (direct injection petrol engines)

For diesel engines,after treatment devices include:
2a. Diesel particulate filter (DPF)
2b. Diesel oxidation catalyst system
2c. SCR (selective catalytic reduction) - needs to be regenerated periodically with a proprietary urea solution called AdBlue
2d. LNT (Lean NOx Trap)

What else did I miss? Lots! If you have not managed to trawl through the write-up above because it sounds Greek to you, rest assured that the decision-makers in the government and its implementing agencies are equally clueless about how to go about rolling in BS6 in a watertight manner. But implement it they will, irrespective of whichever corners they need to cut.

[avinash_clt]

Originally Posted by SS-Traveller

A. The government

- has to decide whether BS6 will follow the same stringent standards as Euro-VI, or there will be dilutions. We already know that Euro-VI gasoline is RON 95, whereas BS6 petrol will be both RON91 and RON95.

Do you have more information about the same?
Would RON91 continue to form the bigger market share (Speed97, Power99 are still super rare outside of the metros) or would there be additional RON95 branded fuels?

- should be aware that BS3 and BS4 vehicles are likely to be taken off the streets and registrations cancelled, especially in the major cities, in the short to medium term.

I hope this is better managed. Looking at EU examples of major cities/regions clamping down on emissions, Euro 3 and Euro 4 petrols are still pliable for a foreseeable amount of time.
I really hope they start stringent annual/biannual fitness check programmes for the vehicles than go about banning vehicles based on age alone (which do make OEMs happy though).

[locusjag]

Originally Posted by SS-Traveller

D. Automobile owners / users
- should be aware that BS3 and BS4 vehicles are likely to be taken off the streets and registrations cancelled, especially in the major cities, in the short to medium term.

I really hope they don't implement something like that point blank. I'm all for a gradual phasing out of older vehicles, as someone with skin in the game - I have a BS 3 and a BS 4 car in my garage.

I wonder if people like me should proactively sell my cars off in tier 2 or tier 3 towns, well ahead of time?

[Aceman82]

Originally Posted by SS-Traveller

should be aware that BS3 and BS4 vehicles are likely to be taken off the streets and registrations cancelled, especially in the major cities, in the short to medium term.

I doubt this would happen anytime soon (or) will even happen. New registrations would be banned for BS4 vehicles but leaving that there would not be any impact for vehicle owners with vehicles confirming to BS4/BS4 standards.

[Mortis]

What about the introduction of hybrid systems to meet BS6 norms ? Is that likely to happen or low chance of it ?
I would also like to know of the impact on 2 wheelers. Would all two wheelers need to have fuel injection to meet parameters from scooters upwards or can it be achieved with carburetors themselves ?

Can we safely say that by increasing the efficiency of existing vehicles they can be made to meet BS6 norms ?

[NFS2024]

Originally Posted by AirbusCapt

Let's understand the technical aspects of BS4 versus BS6 before speculation and panic.
BS4 emissions require 50ppm if sulphur emissions, BS6 require only 10 ppm of sulphur be emitted. Two ways of reduction one by adding an ammonia stage to the exhaust (adblue), the other is by filling up with low sulphur diesel.
The addition of an adblue kit is fairly simple, the problem lies when BS4 engines run on low sulphur BS6 diesel, this lack of sulphur causes scoring of injectors in the long run.
However, replacing stock injectors with hardened BS6 injectors will solve this problem. Currently all auto makers are purposely adding to the panic, making it seem as if BS4 cars will stop running post 2020, this is to merely force people to buy new cars which also will be overpriced, to cater to the BS6 engines (nothing but better injectors and a adblue tank).

Noob question. Is it possible to retrofit BS IV cars with ad blue kit and BSVI injectors at the dealer level during servicing ? Or is it a complicated job?

[AirbusCapt]

Originally Posted by NFS2024

Noob question. Is it possible to retrofit BS IV cars with ad blue kit and BSVI injectors at the dealer level during servicing ? Or is it a complicated job?

Possible. But may be costly, since new injectors, fuel pumps etc may be priced high by manufacturers, to ensure BS6 car sales. Plus RTO approvals are needed since one is making mechanical changes to the vehicle.

[NFS2024]

Originally Posted by AirbusCapt

Possible. But may be costly, since new injectors, fuel pumps etc may be priced high by manufacturers, to ensure BS6 car sales. Plus RTO approvals are needed since one is making mechanical changes to the vehicle.

Thanks that makes sense. If everything can be retrofitted, then people won't have a need to buy BS VI cars and manufacturers don't want to encourage that.

[sgiitk]

@SS-Traveller; Excellent post. I differ on only one point. I agree that some difference is inevitable, due to lower speeds on our Highways we need lower testing points.

As for the rest I agree with you.