[desdemona]

Originally Posted by 1-Testosterone

I wonder where the car sales in major cities will go once India (if ever) gets efficient yet luxurious mass transit system like we see in Germany (ICE) and China (CRH).

We will never get even 10% of that here, precisely because of the political alliance between the car companies and the great Indian middle (privileged but pretending to be AAM) classes.

Witness how the longterm BRT project (whatever its design issues) was killed in Delhi despite the chief minister being committed to it and being someone who had done much more than she should have building flyovers and repaving roads all over what is a radical sprawl of a city.

In rural and semi/peri-urban areas there is a mafia of private taxi and auto and bus owners and drivers, egged on and often financed by the likes of Mahindra who ensure that the deliberately underfunded state transport undertakings do not provide adequate services. In any case these are all grossly inefficient, overmanned by unionised 'workers'. Of course, I exaggerate but you do see why?

Why else do you think there is barely a mention in the election campaign/manifestoes of public transport? Roads and highways, yes, fuel subsidies yes, but hardly a word on mass transport.

Originally Posted by desdemona

We will never get even 10% of that here, precisely because of the political alliance between the car companies and the great Indian middle (privileged but pretending to be AAM) classes.

Well, you are correct, but the actual problem is not this.

When you have some food, the body digests it and the energy is given to all components of your body, in the appropriate proportions. Similarly, the government should try to provide some energy to all parts of the country. But it doesn't happen. South is considered miles ahead of North, the North east is a different story all together.

Why all the labour come to bangalore/chennai/hyderabad/mumbai for work from UP/Bihar/Jharkand and many other places? Why not in their home town? Because there is no work over there. Just develop infrastructure through out the country, this act itself should push money flow through all people of the country. The problem subsidises.

When the money runs through every ones hands, everyone will be capable of owning an automotive. Everyone need not make profits, But the flow of money should not stop. If it stops, then its called as a recession in modern terminology.

Well, Slowdown could be very easily handled, but it depends on one nut, which is holding the country's steering wheel and where he wants to drive it.

[nik hill]

Originally Posted by desdemona

In rural and semi/peri-urban areas there is a mafia of private taxi and auto and bus owners and drivers, egged on and often financed by the likes of Mahindra who ensure that the deliberately underfunded state transport undertakings do not provide adequate services.

That's a pretty strong allegation against a reputed company. You might like to clarify your comment.

[desdemona]

Originally Posted by nik hill

That's a pretty strong allegation against a reputed company. You might like to clarify your comment.

'Reputed Company' is in India, IMO, a logical fallacy. I think you meant something like 'allegedly reputed...' or maybe 'ostensibly reputed...'?

It is the mafia that gets it done, but it is often Mahindra that through its finance arm sponsors them. Most Bolero sales are to private shared-taxi operators in rural/rurban areas, financed by Mahindra itself.

Bolero (and tractor) sales are also a function of hugely subsidised diesel prices. I think it is naive to think that Mahindra is not using its political clout i.e., rent-seeking: witness the recent extra-large cut in SUV excise duties.

[nik hill]

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...w/34484806.cms
A link to ET article on drop in sales.
Maruti Dezire seems to be badly affected along with many small cars.

[volkman10]

With no signs of revival yet, Tata shuts Nano plant in Gujarat for 35 to 40 days.

Also on account of low demand and a resultant inventory pile-up, as well as ongoing retooling activity to manufacture a new version of the Nano for the festive season.

http://auto.economictimes.indiatimes...-days/36527212

[Aditya]

Maruti, Honda Motorcycle and Scooter India and Ashok Leyland have also shut down their plants in the month of June.

Link to Team-BHP News Article

[Servegaar]

The report says the plant has been shut down for maintenance of machinery it seems

[volkman10]

To arrest the slowdown, manufactures are betting on new launches:

Almost half a dozen new launches are slated to be available for sales next week ahead of the festive season.

Carmakers like Maruti Suzuki, Hyundai, Renault, BMW, Tata Motors and Kia Motor will launch new products starting from August 20th, 2019

when showroom footfall increases buyers tend to check other car models as well which result in a positive effect.

Link

[Elito11]

Further to what Deademona said, I have always suspected that the Gurgaon real estate industry (and even the auto industry) is behind the much delayed Dwarka-Gurgaon metro link in NCR. Dwarka sun city came up in the late 90’s and since then has exploded. It has a huge chunk of migrant residential population in Delhi and Dwarka -Gurgaon commute is easily the largest sub section of people coming to Gurgaon to work.

It should then be easy to see how extending then biggest Delhi metro line (blue) to Gurgaon from Dwarka would make it a super obvious thing. However over a decade old proposal continues to hang even the change in state govt (Haryana) has been unable to move it forward.

Everything I mean everything points towards the need for that extension. The infamous Dwarka-Gurgaon jams, the number of people commuting from Dwarka to Gurgaon and the fairly straigfoward extension of about 10 kms, yet ... NOTHING

WHY? Imagine if you could commute from depths of ncr to Gurgaon in comfort and economy. Imagine you not needing to move to overpriced lawless dump called Gurgaon and hence not needing to buy over an priced high rise in some village in Haryana.

Nightmarish for some trust me!

[srishiva]

Originally Posted by Elito11

Further to what Deademona said, I have always suspected that the Gurgaon real estate industry (and even the auto industry) is behind the much delayed Dwarka-Gurgaon metro link in NCR. Dwarka sun city came up in the late 90’s and since then has exploded. It has a huge chunk of migrant residential population in Delhi and Dwarka -Gurgaon commute is easily the largest sub section of people coming to Gurgaon to work.

It should then be easy to see how extending then biggest Delhi metro line (blue) to Gurgaon from Dwarka would make it a super obvious thing. However over a decade old proposal continues to hang even the change in state govt (Haryana) has been unable to move it forward.

Everything I mean everything points towards the need for that extension. The infamous Dwarka-Gurgaon jams, the number of people commuting from Dwarka to Gurgaon and the fairly straigfoward extension of about 10 kms, yet ... NOTHING

WHY? Imagine if you could commute from depths of ncr to Gurgaon in comfort and economy. Imagine you not needing to move to overpriced lawless dump called Gurgaon and hence not needing to buy over an priced high rise in some village in Haryana.

Nightmarish for some trust me!

It happens a lot. The Bengaluru-Mangaluru train service for passengers is still very less and lot of private buses ply on this route.
The private sector is dominated by people who are also in power for things in real estate, transport etc. This explains the never ending problems in too much of density in commercial space, misuse of ring roads and peripheral roads for commercial activity etc.

[volkman10]

Auto Companies hope the demand will pick-up in the festive season starting September, dealer stock reach acceptable limits. But Auto Companies keep a wait and watch policy and will not increase production anytime soon.

The stock with passenger vehicles (PV) dealers averaged between 25 and 30 days’ equivalent at the end of July

Inventory with two-wheeler dealers, however, continued to average between 60 and 65 days, and that with commercial vehicles (CV) dealers too remained unchanged over the preceding month at an average of 55 to 60 days

Vehicle registration numbers in July, however, improved 5% over June since the latter had recorded one of the worst retail experiences in 2019 so far

Link

[longhorn]

They are quite a few people in the indian media who should receive darwin awards. What sigh of relief are they talking about? Inventory has come down due to manufacturers shutting down their plants i.e due to no production days. There is nothing happening on the ground pointing to an increase in economic activity. The govt is busy hounding people who can create jobs. Hence no one is investing in anything that could lead to an increase in economic activity and hence job creation. Only infrastructure building from govt coffers was happening, which took a royal beating courtesy IL&FS.

The stock market was booming as though one man had a magic wand in his hand to magically fix all the crappy things, which incidentally, was his own doing. Now the reality has started to sink in, that the magician is all show and no go, which is reflecting in the stock markets.