[kiku007]

Originally Posted by extreme_torque

Well Europe is not the largest automobile market, far from it infact. China is and their sales of EV's are at 50% of total automobile sales already. To put it in context, China's car market is 2.5 times that of Europe and 50% of that would mean Chinese would buy more EV's than the total number of cars sold in Europe in 2023 (10.5mn). Its not the end of Utopia - the Utopia is here to stay.

I have said it earlier and I say it again. Europe is done - apart from silly regulation there is nothing coming out of Europe that the world wants. They have been left far behind in tech by China and their last bastion, i.e. overpriced unreliable cars are under a serious threat.

I think there are two different topics here.

Chinese automakers have taken the lead as far as BEVs are concerned, while the European automakers were caught napping. BEV/PHEV shoppers cannot ignore the Chinese brands. Not just because they are cheap, but because they are good!

Now let's talk about the market. You can write your obituary for the EU tech and automotive industries. The Chinese economy itself is facing its own challenges. Hence, China needs new markets for their heavily subsidized BEVs and this includes Europe. So you cannot ignore the drop in EV sales in Europe.

Originally Posted by NomadSK

Expecting people to buy a car either EV or ICE, because it will help cool the planet is just too much, for that one should either ride bicycles or start riding horse carts.

People seek value and deserve the freedom of choice. Tesla Model 3 and Model Y are being sold starting from A$55 and A$60K on-road respectively in Australia. That's incredible value from a purchasing price perspective. Guess what? They aren't setting the sales charts on fire. Go figure.

Your point about the crude oil price is very valid.

Originally Posted by electric_eel

100% electrification is very well possible with today's technology (and the technology is constantly marching ahead). What I mean is that the challenge is mostly administrative, political and in the policy domain rather than in the technological domain unlike things like "green hydrogen" or Nuclear Fusion.
That is how feasible green energy is today.

I don't mean to undermine the value of your belief. However, I'm unable to correlate ~100% electrification of railways to personal vehicles. There are significant differences.

Anyways, time will tell how we progress.

[extreme_torque]

Originally Posted by kiku007

Now let's talk about the market. You can write your obituary for the EU tech and automotive industries. The Chinese economy itself is facing its own challenges. Hence, China needs new markets for their heavily subsidized BEVs and this includes Europe. So you cannot ignore the drop in EV sales in Europe.

I am not writing the obituary, Europe is writing it itself - from GPDR to near ridiculous asks from Apple to even mandating which charging port should be used on various devices. The number of patents coming out from Europe vs China/USA also makes it obvious.

Now I am not going to get into a debate about Apple vs other vs how it is good for the customer but I do not like governments, which have utterly no idea of technology, mandating the biggest tech companies on how to run their business. Just let the free market sort it out. Again I am not asking for no regulation, but its getting to a point where it feel more like vendetta than something which is good for the end customer.

Originally Posted by kiku007

The Chinese economy itself is facing its own challenges. Hence, China needs new markets for their heavily subsidized BEVs and this includes Europe. So you cannot ignore the drop in EV sales in Europe.

I am not sayin drop in sales does not matter and there are multitudes of factors at play rather than EV sales going down. Its certainly not the end of EV's either which you seem to think.

Originally Posted by kiku007

People seek value and deserve the freedom of choice. Tesla Model 3 and Model Y are being sold starting from A$55 and A$60K on-road respectively in Australia. That's incredible value from a purchasing price perspective. Guess what? They aren't setting the sales charts on fire. Go figure.

Model Y is the best selling electric car so far in 2024 and Model 3 is the next best selling EV in the list. Together they sell more than twice of all the rest combined including some very cheap and cheerful from China. I am not sure what exactly would be setting charts on fire if this isnt it.

[SmartCat]

Originally Posted by extreme_torque

I am not writing the obituary, Europe is writing it itself. The number of patents coming out from Europe vs China/USA also makes it obvious.

Don't go by the number of patents filed. Most of the Chinese patents are fraudulent or of low commercial value. There are incentives for Chinese individuals & companies to file patents because they get funding/subsidies from the Govt just for filing patents.
https://ipwatchdog.com/2022/10/12/ch...ons/id=151969/

the subsidies “appear to motivate strategic filing behavior, including the practice of splitting a single patent application into multiple applications in an effort to reach specific innovation metrics.

In response to a lowly valued patent market and high-profile cases of fraud, the Chinese government has attempted to crack down on corruption.

Meanwhile, EU continues to be a strong in high tech exports:

[anandhsub]

How much of the YoY drop is because consumers frontloaded their EV purchases in May-June before the new tariffs on China made EVs came into effect?

[AMG Power]

Originally Posted by kiku007

Tesla Model 3 and Model Y…: aren't setting the sales charts on fire.

I had mentioned this in the following thread:

https://www.team-bhp.com/forum/inter...australia.html (Thousands of Teslas lying unsold in Australia)

[kiku007]

Originally Posted by extreme_torque

Now I am not going to get into a debate about Apple vs other vs how it is good for the customer but I do not like governments, which have utterly no idea of technology, mandating the biggest tech companies on how to run their business. Just let the free market sort it out. Again I am not asking for no regulation, but its getting to a point where it feel more like vendetta than something which is good for the end customer.

+1. Similarly I don't want the government to tell me what technology I use to power my car or force me to replace perfectly running ICE powered cars (that have decades of life in them) with a technology that is still evolving. I'm sure it'll mature in the future, but just not in the utopian timeline that EV evangelists believe it will. The previously promised timelines have already been extended multiple times.

I know a number of Tesla owners who bought their cars in 2022 and are staring at their rapidly depreciated asset. In some cases the outstanding loan amount is ~=/> the 2024 resale value. These are people who didn't buy EVs to save the world, but to save them money. They aren't happy to see the RAV4 Hybrid price going up and resale holding pretty well. Caveat emptor indeed.

So yeah, tell the guy who bought a Tesla Model Y in January 2023 at $72K, that a new Model Y in May 2024 costs $56K, and it is setting the sales charts on fire. I bet he isn't amused when his resale value was destroyed.

Originally Posted by extreme_torque

Its certainly not the end of EV's either which you seem to think.

I don't think that's the case. I'm saying the end of ICE isn't near as thought earlier.

Originally Posted by extreme_torque

Model Y is the best selling electric car so far in 2024 and Model 3 is the next best selling EV in the list. Together they sell more than twice of all the rest combined including some very cheap and cheerful from China. I am not sure what exactly would be setting charts on fire if this isnt it.

You are right about the Model Y and 3 being top sellers within the EV segment. However, we have to look into the details as well.

• Do people remember the times when it was believed that price was the key barrier for EV adoption and once EVs reach parity with ICE, the adoption will skyrocket? As I said earlier, the Model Y and 3 are incredible value at the selling price. Yet, they aren't flying off the shelves. They are being discounted heavily to sell. This isn't isolated to Tesla and this has been discussed in multiple threads.
• Data shows that in recent times fence-sitters are shifting towards hybrids.
• Look at the below and decide for yourself if this is a sign of a car model setting the sales charts on fire or a carmaker trying desperately to sell.

Source: https://www.drive.com.au/news/tesla-...alia-may-2024/

[kiku007]

Originally Posted by kiku007

People seek value and deserve the freedom of choice. Tesla Model 3 and Model Y are being sold starting from A$55 and A$60K on-road respectively in Australia. That's incredible value from a purchasing price perspective. Guess what? They aren't setting the sales charts on fire. Go figure.

Here's more proof.

• Tesla has recorded a sixth straight month of sales decline, driven by falling demand for the volume-selling Model Y electric SUV.
• Tesla’s year-on-year delivery figures have fallen in every month since April.
• The falloff in deliveries was largely driven by the Tesla Model Y, of which just 1498 examples were registered in September.
• This was down 60.7 per cent on September 2023, when the electric SUV was Australia’s third best-selling vehicle overall, behind the Ford Ranger and Toyota HiLux.
• While Tesla Model 3 deliveries also dropped, they declined by 15.7 per cent, on account of 1151 examples being registered compared to 1366 a year ago.
• Year-to-date, Tesla deliveries in Australia stand at 30,750 examples to the end of September, representing a 19.1 per cent decline on the same nine-month period in 2023.

Source: https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-new...s-demand-drops

However, globally Tesla has delivered more vehicles in the third quarter of 2024 compared to the same period last year, despite the EV market faltering.

• Tesla’s aggressive electric-car discounting appears to finally be positively affecting the brand’s vehicle deliveries, as revealed by its third-quarter 2024 report.
• Having weathered a downturn in the first half of the year, in the third quarter (July to September), Tesla delivered the highest number of vehicles in a three-month period so far this year, hitting 462,890 vehicles.
• The result is a 6.4 per cent increase over the same period in 2023, which saw 435,059 vehicles delivered globally.

Source: https://www.drive.com.au/news/tesla-...up-in-q3-2024/

[extreme_torque]

Originally Posted by kiku007

I know a number of Tesla owners who bought their cars in 2022 and are staring at their rapidly depreciated asset. In some cases the outstanding loan amount is ~=/> the 2024 resale value. These are people who didn't buy EVs to save the world, but to save them money. They aren't happy to see the RAV4 Hybrid price going up and resale holding pretty well. Caveat emptor indeed.

For the base Model Y yes, but the Long range and Performance pricing has not been affected as much. Also, an analysis like this can be easily done for Tesla but not the other brands since you buy direct from Tesla and the price is what you see on the website. With the other brands there are dealers involved and getting a 10% discount isnt too hard even on a popular model. My friend bought an Audi S4 at almost 25% discount. You can never get a true picture of what one paid in such a scenario.

Speaking of other electric cars and a case in point, I recently saw an Audi RS e-Tron listed for $111k below its asking price.

Originally Posted by kiku007

You are right about the Model Y and 3 being top sellers within the EV segment. However, we have to look into the details as well.[list][*]Do people remember the times when it was believed that price was the key barrier for EV adoption and once EVs reach parity with ICE, the adoption will skyrocket? As I said earlier, the Model Y and 3 are incredible value at the selling price. Yet, they aren't flying off the shelves. They are being discounted heavily to sell.

You are taking the pricing of base Model Y and applying it across the range which is not true. The rest of the range has also seen price drops but its not nearly as much as the base Model Y and its not uncommon to see such price drops at the dealer level across the brands either.

Model Y was at its most expensive at launch which was the case with all Tesla including Model 3, S and X.

Originally Posted by kiku007

[*]Data shows that in recent times fence-sitters are shifting towards hybrids.

Not entirely true. The market from pure ICE has been moving towards hybrids so much so that some brands like Toyota/Lexus have discontinued some combustion powered models. The demand for RAV4 is pent up demand since they did not have sufficient allocation for Australia but if you look at overall global Toyota sales, they are down.

VW is in a lot of pain too so much so that they are on the verge of closing 2 factories in Germany. China is their biggest and most profitable market in the world and VW EV's are hardly selling in a market moving steadily and fast towards EV's

Originally Posted by kiku007

Here's more proof.[list][*]

Tesla has recorded a sixth straight month of sales decline, driven by falling demand for the volume-selling Model Y electric SUV.

[*]Tesla’s year-on-year delivery figures have fallen in every month since April.

Except that is not how you look at Tesla sales because Tesla does not have production capacity earmarked per month for Australia - Australia is just one of the many markets that Tesla's shanghai gigafactory exports to and the sales are dependent on the number of arrivals which is why you see a large variance in sales numbers across months. It also visible in the article you posted where the sales in feb and mar 2024 were up 70% yoy.

The overall sales are down indeed but it is the same across the board. Macro-economic conditions are really tough right now with high interest rates (and they havent started to come down unlike some other countries) and a very tight job market. The sales are down across most brands, yoy.

[kiku007]

Originally Posted by extreme_torque

an analysis like this can be easily done for Tesla but not the other brands since you buy direct from Tesla and the price is what you see on the website. With the other brands there are dealers involved and getting a 10% discount isnt too hard even on a popular model. My friend bought an Audi S4 at almost 25% discount. You can never get a true picture of what one paid in such a scenario.

The fact is that Tesla is on a consistent price-cutting spree to sell! These aren’t seasonal one-off discounts. Any attempt to mask this is futile. This has been discussed enough in multiple places. A single Audi S4 could be offered at 25% to a customer somewhere for a variety of reasons, and this has no connection with the across the board price cuts by Tesla.

The used-car market is a good sign of the market from a depreciation value perspective. The dealer discounts or direct-to-customer sales model doesn’t matter here. The fact is that EVs have much greater depreciation and Tesla is hurting its customers even more with their price cuts.

USA:
Prices of the popular Model 3 electric four-door lead all used cars. They dropped by a national average of 22.6% between 2023 and 2024. The average price across the country for a Model 3 was $37,548 in 2023 and hit $29,045 in 2024.


Link: https://www.autoweek.com/news/a62394...t-price-drops/

UK:

https://youtu.be/eGS34ENu4S4?si=KsONSVcI67GCZT3e

Australia:

https://youtu.be/xSre_KbWFBY?si=dAMRlHQ8fqbTs_Ag

It has been reported that Dealers have stopped giving instant offers on used Teslas at Carsales.com. You can check that out yourself. MY2022 3 Year lease Model Ys will hit the used car market in 2025, and it’ll be interested to see how bad it might be for the sellers.

Originally Posted by extreme_torque

Speaking of other electric cars and a case in point, I recently saw an Audi RS e-Tron listed for $111k below its asking price.

Luxury-Performance EVs are depreciation magnets and their sales are tanking as well (Ask Rivian). Thanks for confirming that. Some businesses like them for their tax write-off potential though.

Originally Posted by extreme_torque

Except that is not how you look at Tesla sales because Tesla does not have production capacity earmarked per month for Australia - Australia is just one of the many markets that Tesla's shanghai gigafactory exports to and the sales are dependent on the number of arrivals which is why you see a large variance in sales numbers across months. It also visible in the article you posted where the sales in feb and mar 2024 were up 70% yoy.

The overall sales are down indeed but it is the same across the board.

However,

• Tesla has had 6 continuous months of sales decline.
• Ready for delivery Teslas are available in their current inventory.
• The effect of macro-economic conditions on other manufacturers aren’t as severe as for Tesla.

Anyways, I just wanted to clarify with more data. I don’t want to take the Europe EV sales thread off-topic any further.

[youknowitbetter]

Came across this article on The Guardian. Article sets out the issues faced by an early adopter of UK and the issues still faced by them. Though the article is bit more focused on public charging infrastructure, it gives a nice insight of the issues in UK. What is interesting is the reaction of the dealer and how people are looking to buy hybrids!

These appear to be quite relevant here in Indian context as well. As a prospective owner who is on a look out, I can relate because I live in a rented apartment and I will not be able to set up a charger in my parking so will have to rely on public charging. The research so far has not given 100% comfort that I can totally rely on public infrastructure to take the plunge.

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...nt-the-charger

[SKC-auto]

Those who still think EVs are Utopia.

Mercedes CEO Källenius, today in Germany.

"It's strange. It's a Darwinian price war, a market shakeout. And many of the players that are still around now will no longer be there in five years' time."

"You have to keep your nerve, keep investing, keep innovating and make sure that at the end of this Darwinian battle you are one of the fighters left, and that's what we are focussing on,"

It's survival battle for most auto manufacturers.

[kiku007]

Originally Posted by SKC-auto

It's survival battle for most auto manufacturers.

Because they incorrectly estimated the timeline of ICE and EV vehicles, and are scrambling to rejig them based on the market realities?

Mercedes isn't having a great time with its lineup of electric vehicles. The company just reported US sales for the third quarter, revealing yet another three months of falling sales for the EQB, EQE, and EQS.

Sales of those three nameplates are down 42 percent for Q3 2024, from 9,984 cars sold last year in the same period to just 5,769 cars this year. Mercedes doesn't break down sales by body style, so we can't tell whether the SUV versions of the EQE and EQS are fairing any better than the sedans. Either way, things aren't great for the EQ brand.

• Mercedes understands things didn't go as planned for its EVs. The company admitted earlier this year it was too enthusiastic about its electrification goals, before scrapping its planned large EV platform originally set to debut in 2028.
• In May CEO Ola Kallenius confirmed it would pivot to a strategy similar to BMW's approach, offering EV and gas-powered versions of the next S-Class instead of a new EQS.

Source: https://www.motor1.com/news/736870/m...sales-q3-2024/

[kiku007]

Battery-powered electric vehicle sales plunge by 25% as Australian drivers choose hybrid models

• Battery-powered electric vehicle sales fell sharply last quarter and may have temporarily peaked as consumers turn to hybrid models that attract tax concessions, according to new analysis.
• Quarterly vehicle sales data released by the Australian Automobile Association on Monday reveals petrol-powered cars continued to decline in popularity, with sales falling by 9.16% in the three months to 30 September.
• During this same period, electric vehicle sales declined by 25% from 25,353 to 18,990, with market share falling from 8.10% to 6.57% – the lowest since 2022.
• According to the AAA, hybrid sales increased from 46,727 to 48,282 – a 3.3% jump to a total 16.70% market share. While plug-in hybrids – which have a battery that can be charged externally to limit reliance on petrol – increased by 56%, taking the market share to 2.5%.
• “There have been significant quarterly fluctuations over the past seven quarters, but sales figures over that period confirm a clear trend of growth for hybrids, while battery electric vehicle market share appears to have peaked for now,” the AAA analysis said.
• “In the first half of 2023, battery electric vehicles outsold hybrids, but since then hybrids have outsold battery electric vehicles in five consecutive quarters.
• “Hybrids are now outselling battery electric vehicles even in the ACT, which has long been Australia’s strongest market.”

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/environm...-hybrid-models

The AAA website has a really good dashboard if you are interested to check out the data in the report.

Link: https://www.aaa.asn.au/research-data/electric-vehicle/

Tesla Australia records seventh straight month of sales decline.

• Deliveries of Tesla’s electric vehicles (EVs) in Australia have fallen once again, with the US brand now recording its eighth monthly sales decline this year and its seventh in a row.
• According to data published by the Electric Vehicle Council (EVC), Tesla delivered 1464 EVs to Australian customers in October, representing a 26.4 per cent drop on the same month a year prior.
• While October was a weak month for Tesla in 2023 as well – having failed to crack 2000 deliveries – last month’s result represents the seventh consecutive month of declines for the brand, with no year-on-year increase since March.

Source: https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-new...-sales-decline

TeslaFans can't sell this month's drop under "Ship didn't come". Tesla is offering even more cash incentives to push stock before the end of the year to show deliveries.


To add to Tesla's misery,

• MG overtook Tesla with the MG4 selling 1,486 EVs, followed by the Tesla Model Y with 1,042 sales in October.
• A near quadrupling in sales propelled the MG4 – which had its on road price slashed to below $31,000 in October – to become the best-selling electric car for the month, outselling Tesla as a brand for the first time in Australia. No other car maker has achieved that feat.

Source: https://thedriven.io/2024/11/06/mg-o...ite-price-war/

[tbppjpr]

January-September 2024 EV sales figures:


Source

[SKC-auto]

EV sales in UK reached 25% market share, increasing 58.4% YoY in November. Meanwhile the sales of ICE cars continue to fall in UK.

UK is progressing well towards ICE cars ban by 2030.