[blackwasp]

Thanks for sharing quite an insightful view on Japanese leading pushing for hybrids.

Originally Posted by Hayek

Based on my real life experience, I have driven 6200 km so far in my Ioniq 5 for ₹9643 - it would have cost ₹ 90,000 in my Tiguan.

While we all look at the running cost of an EV, we fail to look at progressive costs that we might occur compared to an ICE vehicle.

We have an Ather at home. 2022 model done around 11k km. Very happy with it. But the other day went to check out the higher range Ather, but was offered only 50k as resale. Meanwhile we sold my wife’s 2018 Activa for 40k!

With alternative fuels like CNG and hybrid tech I feel jumping on the EV bandwagon is crazy.

My fleet cars do about 1-1.25L km per year. But despite that, I’m unable to financially justify an EV.


For the common man or those looking at the mass market EV segment, the cost proposition is what is preventing adoption of EVs as compared to hybrids or Cng vehicles.

IMHO, India will see short term rise in EV adoption but in about 5-8 years will see a decline as hybrids and CNG adoption increases rapidly.

[ferrarirules]

Originally Posted by blackwasp

My fleet cars do about 1-1.25L km per year. But despite that, I’m unable to financially justify an EV.

There are multiple companies successfully running EV cab business, Blusmart is a prime example. In Delhi/NCR more and more cab companies are adopting EVs due to cheaper running cost and high ROI. What is the math when you say that you are not financially able to justify EVs in fleet?

[blackwasp]

Originally Posted by ferrarirules

What is the math when you say that you are not financially able to justify EVs in fleet?

Sorry for the delay, but here are the numbers:



Assumptions:
1. EV will do one overnight charging + 1 DC fast charging
2. Maintenance cost is assumed including tyres, annual insurance, annual tax, fitness, etc.
3. CNG Dzire car is considered


I'm not even assuming my use case, wherein my cars are doing 500-600 km trips per day. This is almost impossible to do in the time allotted to us in any EV let alone an Xpress T. Further, for 24X7 operations, will either need to rely on fast charging or keep 2 cars (12 hour shifts + slow charging times). This will skew up the numbers even more.

Lastly, there's the point of resale value. I don't expect anything in resale for a 5L km done EV, but for a CNG car, I might get Rs. 1-1.5L.

[SmartCat]

Originally Posted by ferrarirules

There are multiple companies successfully running EV cab business, Blusmart is a prime example. What is the math when you say that you are not financially able to justify EVs in fleet?

Originally Posted by blackwasp

Sorry for the delay, but here are the numbers:

Just looked up BluSmart -
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com.../107223689.cms

- It is a private equity funded company. So it is probably not too concerned about profitability right now
- They have their own charging infrastructure. So BluSmart will pay much lower for charging than a small EV fleet owner.
- Their charging infrastructure is open to business for others too. So they have additional cash flows
- BluSmart has a fleet of 6,000 EVs. This means they'd signed a MoU with Tata Motors directly bypassing the dealer. So it is quite likely they are getting 10% discount on initial cost and possibly 20% discount on battery replacement.
- Fleet of 6,000 EVs means BluSmart probably has their own servicing & maintenance department, thereby drastically cutting down maintenance costs. Found this on Linkedin:



- Perhaps BluSmart can keep the cars in the fleet far beyond 5L kms (if maintenance is in-house). Depreciation or resale value might hurt less

[Aditya]

Financial viability of EVs for cab business - Posts moved to a new thread.

[Asoon]

Originally Posted by blackwasp

Sorry for the delay, but here are the numbers:

You are comparing a matured efficient product with something which is not even 5 years old, moreover actual EV sales numbers started happening in India just 2 years ago. May be not today, but with in just 5 years EV unit economics will surpass ICE numbers by a huge margin.

In your calculation, the two major cost factors for EV was 1) price delta when buying a new car 2) Battery cost

Not compare battery replacement cost | ICE to EV new car cost 5 years back and now
Then imagine how these numbers will stack-up after 5 years projecting the goodness achieved in the past

ICE will remain more or less flat, EVs cost structures are moving down a inclined slope, one has to time the entry to EV commercial business

[Shresth_EV]

XpressT price seems inflated at 13L, for a 25kWh vehicle that too one with mere 31kW power and 72V architecture

This goes into show that due to other brand’s complacency in EV segment, Tata is able to get away with this pricing which can fetch punch EV adventure LR with 250-300km range within their own stable.



https://www.carwale.com/compare-cars...1059&source=18

That makes me curious, won’t the Tiago EV XT LR vs WagonR CNG make more sense for the hatch taxi segment? Given that it’s 10.5L OTR and 50km more range (200 vs 150)

I’ve not yet seen any Tiago EV taxis till now, I wonder if there is some reason behind it since it strikes me as much better package for the price of 10L vs what the XpresT offers at 13.

[ajmat]

A lot centres on the battery capacity and the utilisation of the vehicle. BluSmart currently realises around Rs 50000 / car/month. This is quite low since the realistic range is around 200 km / car and the down time required to charge the car.


I made a small investment in Shoffr. The battery range of the BYD6 means the car need only be charged once a day and usually targeted between shifts. They realize around Rs much more /vehicle at around 75% utilisation. The utilisation is kept high by focussing on airport runs, hourly hire and outstation trips.

[Gansan]

OT

No idea about cab companies, but 3 wheelers used for last mile delivery have already predominantly switched to EV. Seven out of ten such three wheelers I see are EVs. I order stuff from Big Basket every weekend and I spoke recently to the fellow who brings them by Ev three wheeler. He is the driver cum delivery man. Seems it will do 150 km on a full charge,which gives him 5-6 trips a day. He said usually that is all he does per day and the EVs are charged by domestic chargers afterwards, but sometimes will do a fast charge at a petrol bunk if additional trips become necessry.

[greenhorn]

A cabbie i talked to was very happy with his xpres T. he can run the AC in his cab while waiting without much penalty, and had even slept in it overnight a couple of times with AC running without booking a hotel.

[ferrarirules]

Originally Posted by blackwasp

Sorry for the delay, but here are the numbers:

A few observations from your calculations

1. You have assumed Xpress-T (72V architecture) for your calculations. Tata now sells ziptron architecture also for cabs. The newer cabs of BluSmart or Uber green all are ziptron architecture cars.
2. You have assumed fast charging rate as Rs.21 per KW which is on the higher side, there are a lot of players like Jio BP or Statiq or Glida which are offering fast charging at Rs 16+GST. Also, Glida and Statiq even have subscription models which are quite cheap.
3. Insurance for Tigor EV seems to be overstated. Even at sites like car dekho or carwale, the insurance is ranging between Rs 38,000 to Rs 44,000 for Tigor EV. Also Dzire insurance is at a similar price of Rs. 30,000 to Rs.40,000. I don't have experience of commercial car insurance so i don't know how much it varies from individual cars.
4. Finally the elephant in the room, battery degradation and replacement of battery. For a battery to be unusable in an electric car, the SoH (State of Health) needs to go below 80%. With an LFP battery boasting approximately 2500 to 3000 charge cycles to reach 80% SoH, you will have 4,50,000 kms of battery life before you need to think of a battery change. (assumed 2500 cycles and per cycle range of 180 kms). Also, the old battery of the car will not be worthless, people will pay you for buying back that battery like they pay you for a lead acid battery.

A key difference between EV cab and CNG cab - Lack of boot space in CNG car, the luggage needs to be carried on the roof impacting fuel efficiency.

I'm not even assuming my use case, wherein my cars are doing 500-600 km trips per day. This is almost impossible to do in the time allotted to us in any EV let alone an Xpress T.

500-600 km trips are completely possible in EVs like MG ZS or BYD E6. MG ZS EV runs 350 kms on a charge so it can travel 600 kms with one charge stop. BYD E6 runs 400-450 kms on a charge. BYD E6 comes with 5,00,000 km battery warranty.

Originally Posted by SmartCat

Just looked up BluSmart -

Yes, BluSmart is funded and they are a full stack EV cab business. Most of their cabs are leased from IREDA and PFC, they only pay small upfront payment and subsequently they pay recurring lease cost. If you want to learn more about Blusmart business model, please listen to this podcast - Punit Goyal (Co-founder, BluSmart) explains it in detail -

Link

Having said that not every player has the guts of running a full stack business. There are others as well which are running EV cabs now in NCR - Giriraj cabs, Ganga Tourist cabs, Uber green (Uber doesn't own cabs or any charging infra), Evera cabs, eee-Taxi and many more. I am even seeing non labeled (labeled meaning company decals) Tigor EV taxi's in NCR these days. I quoted BluSmart because they are the biggest example but not the only one.

Also Blusmart now has 7000 cabs - Latest article - Mar 2024

[blackwasp]

Originally Posted by Asoon

Then imagine how these numbers will stack-up after 5 years projecting the goodness achieved in the past

ICE will remain more or less flat, EVs cost structures are moving down a inclined slope, one has to time the entry to EV commercial business

Absolutely correct. But we need to think with today's numbers as there can be a lot of different scenarios 5 years down the line - eg. India discovers oil, CNG price reduces, swappable battery tech becomes super cheap. etc.

Originally Posted by Shresth_EV

XpressT price seems inflated at 13L, for a 25kWh vehicle that too one with mere 31kW power and 72V architecture

The X-press range is now same as regular Tigor, save for features like 80 km/h lock and so on...

I’ve not yet seen any Tiago EV taxis till now, I wonder if there is some reason behind it since it strikes me as much better package for the price of 10L vs what the XpresT offers at 13.

Tata will not sell Tiago EV as a cab, or at least when I had enquired.

Originally Posted by ajmat

BluSmart currently realises around Rs 50000 / car/month.

They realize around much more /vehicle at around 75% utilisation. The utilisation is kept high by focussing on airport runs, hourly hire and outstation trips.

This is the crux of the matter. My WagonRs generate about 1L revenue in 30 days minimum (assuming they run only in Uber). If you include outstation trip vehicles, they will be in the range of 1.6-2L per month. So a 8.5 lakh rupee vehicle is generating same revenue as a 30 lakh EV.

Originally Posted by ferrarirules

A few observations from your calculations

1. You have assumed Xpress-T (72V architecture) for your calculations. Tata now sells ziptron architecture also for cabs. The newer cabs of BluSmart or Uber green all are ziptron architecture cars.

Xpress T cabs are same as Tigor now save for some cab specific features like 80 lock and so on. Tata has kept the same name now for commercial range.

2. You have assumed fast charging rate as Rs.21 per KW which is on the higher side, there are a lot of players like Jio BP or Statiq or Glida which are offering fast charging at Rs 16+GST. Also, Glida and Statiq even have subscription models which are quite cheap.

Let's assume the worst case scenario, rather than the best case. Furthermore, can't ensure that the car will come back to the same charger throughout the day.

3. Insurance for Tigor EV seems to be overstated... I don't have experience of commercial car insurance so i don't know how much it varies from individual cars.

Commercial vehicles have a much higher 3rd party component than private vehicles.

4.With an LFP battery boasting approximately 2500 to 3000 charge cycles to reach 80% SoH, you will have 4,50,000 kms of battery life before you need to think of a battery change. (assumed 2500 cycles and per cycle range of 180 kms).

I'm assuming a range of 136 km on a full charge. Thats around 3.4 lakh km on 2500 cycles. So, yes battery might not go bad at the 2.5L km mark, but it's definitely possible that it will need replacement at least once before the 5L km mark.

A key difference between EV cab and CNG cab - Lack of boot space in CNG car, the luggage needs to be carried on the roof impacting fuel efficiency.

Not very true. Despite the CNG tank, my Dzire can accommodate more luggage than a Tigor Xpress T EV. In fact, Tiago EV will accommodate more luggage than Tigor EV. Do check out the car in a showroom once. I have the pics, but will have to look around for it. Will share them if I find them.

500-600 km trips are completely possible in EVs like MG ZS or BYD E6. MG ZS EV runs 350 kms on a charge so it can travel 600 kms with one charge stop. BYD E6 runs 400-450 kms on a charge. BYD E6 comes with 5,00,000 km battery warranty.

MG ZS EV won't do Navi Mumbai Surat on a full charge. I have done 2 trips with it and it lost charge at around 300 km once and around 240 km (could have done around 20 km more, but charged in Navsari)

I asked the BYD guys for a TD and explained my need. I even told them that if the car can do 350 km on a single charge, I will book 5 cars on the spot. But sadly, I was neither offered a test drive, not offered an assurance that the car will do a minimum of 350 km on a single charge. Not to mention, a single e6 costs 30L = 3+ Dzires or 4 WagonRs roughly.

EVs are fine if you are driving in the city or doing max Mumbai-Pune like routes. Just watch the range drop at highway speeds. With new expressways having a limit of 120 km/h, EV range will decrease even more.

[Hayek]

Very interesting analysis. Didn’t realise that people run 500,000 km with a cab. When you work with a 136 km range, are you assuming 80% to 20% or a wider spread? I believe that battery cycles could be higher in the absence of full charging or deep discharge.

The other question is how available is CNG on long distance routes? Presume the difference in cost is higher for petrol or diesel.

Finally in the sun 4 m segment, the benefit EVs gets through lower GST is less - since the difference is GST is only 23% vs 48% for large SUVs. But until we have products that work for taxi operators, we can’t have full EV adoption.

[ex-innova-guy]

Originally Posted by Hayek

The other question is how available is CNG on long distance routes? Presume the difference in cost is higher for petrol or diesel.

A very important question while considering CNG cars. We bought our Hyryder CNG in June 2023, and it has already completed 30,500 km in ~9 months, where more than 95% is driven on CNG. There is absolutely no issue with finding a CNG pump nearby, and queues are also not an issue these days. I have mostly done Mumbai-Pune, Mumbai-Alibag, and Mumbai-Mangaon runs, and there are quite a few CNG pumps available.

There is an app called Nawgati that shows you CNG pumps around you and also lets you plan and find pumps for long drives, just like while planning a drive in an EV.


I have added the destination as ‘Delhi’ from ‘Worli’ and it shows 226 CNG pumps en route.


I have added the destination as ‘Goa’ from ‘Worli’ and it shows 108 CNG pumps en route.

Some more screenshots from the app on the availability of CNG pumps

[ajmat]

Originally Posted by blackwasp

This is the crux of the matter. My WagonRs generate about 1L revenue in 30 days minimum (assuming they run only in Uber). If you include outstation trip vehicles, they will be in the range of 1.6-2L per month. So a 8.5 lakh rupee vehicle is generating same revenue as a 30 lakh EV.

Does this include fuel costs? What I spoke about was net of EMI, Driver salary, charging costs. If I get time over the weekend, I will share my analysis and why I made a small investment in Shoffr