[svsantosh]

I want this thread to discuss a important human centric topic of Jobs that will be impacted if we move to a EV centric industry. I feel the below jobs will be culled or scaled down forever and can change the course of job industry forever.

Just like the steam engines died (trains, buses, cars, home heating, etc), Carpentry, pottery hand weaving and so many other jobs have died or curtailed severely in the last century, these jobs also will be phased out. Do feel free to add or debate what else will be the impact.

Drive Train :
100s of engine parts sub-contracted to vendors assembled at engine maker - Vs - a simpler motor driven by tech and assembled in house. I estimate it would need 50% lesser people overall to make a motor (1 casing, rotor, winding and gears) instead of a complicated engine. Same case applicable for gearboxes - electric motors can eliminate need for a complicated transmission, so many jobs in question here.

Starter motor/Alternator :
There are some Giant employer names in India that are well known starter and alternator manufacturers, TVS is one, BOSCH is another, what about those 1000s of jobs there?

Suspension/Brakes/HVAC :
In the current EV Scenario these industries look safe but there may be advancements made. Regenerative braking can eliminate the need for better brakes some day so watch out. Thankfully with a warmer earth, HVAC is still needed and EVs do need some tech to cool down their internals.

Radiator/heat exchange :
There is a sure need for a radiator concept in a EV to keep the battery and motor cool but I am not sure if any jobs will be lost.

Spares/Ancillary units/Engine oil/lubricants/filters/Mechanics :
This will be a significant sector that will be see millions of job losses, there are 100s of lubricant brands in the world, OEM and fake spare industries, 1st grade copy and fake part manufacturers who somehow provide jobs and run the economy, those will be at stake. Air filters, oil filters, engine spares, clutch replacements, etc all gone forever. All after sales service centers around the world - organized and unorganized, what will happen to them?

Gujri/Scrap/recylcers :
Every major town and every city has a suburb with 100s of streets and 1 or 2 highway full of used spares - engine, gearboxes, body parts like hood,boot, seats, etc - what will happen to them?

After market tuners/Performance Spares/Accessories :
Even a Swift can be modded with a louder FFE exhaust and a K&N air filter, what about those industries? Audio refitters, there are various jobs related to both manufacturing of a Pioneer or Sony or Alpine HU and a Sub, Amp, their related wiring etc etc - I dont think a Tesla or a BYD (for that matter even todays cars dont need a AFM audio anymore) will need these industries. I can imagine a Tesla having a 10,000Rs seat cover done in JC road safely covering the air bags but still there are some jobs to surely vanish in this industry. A product as simple as a Pom-Pom Bosch horn cannot be added to a EV without facing major warranty issues. Minda, Roots, Super - there are so many companies making such a simple 1st-mod-on-a-car in India - louder horns.

Additives/Non OEM performance add ons :
Liquimoly, Bardhal, 3M, 1000s more companies have additives for fuel and oil, what about them?

Bearings :
Surely companies like SKF/FAG/Techspin will have lesser business if engines and gearboxes are eliminated, they are giants in job sector. There is no need for a journal bearing surely in EV I hope.

Casting/Foundries :
Yes, a EV drive train still needs a cast outer block and a forged shaft or few but there are far lesser cast/forged parts inside a motor compared to an ICE engine.

The Factory :
I have checked out EV factories like Ather or Ola (being a native of Hosur, TN) they really dont need a lot of employees to put together a EV product as compared to the cumbersome assembly of a ICE car/bike. Yes, there are jobs created but it takes far lesser people to assemble a EV compared to conventional car or bike.

The Battery :
I really do not have an estimate how many jobs are created in the manufacture of EV batteries, can anyone discuss on that topic. From mining to logistics to processing and assembly of a Battery Pack.

Oil/Petroleum/Refining/Distribution/Pumps :
This is the hottest topic of all, can anyone even begin to estimate the number of jobs in the oil industry, it is simply massive and they make or break nations, geo-politics, differentiate developed or conflict nations. From oil exploration to drilling and mining to shipping and storage to refining and distribution to petrol pumps - it is simply mind boggling. I cannot understand how EV is going to replace this industry and where are the humans going to find alternative energy to replace oil. Unless we find a Lithium deposit below earth similar to Middle-East oil story from 1970s - hoping the volume of Lithium deposit is the size of 3-4 states combined in India - I simple do not see how a 5 trillion $ industry can be closed down in 5-10 years. Unless someone invents a Nuclear powered car that can run on a spoonful of U235 for 25 years at a stretch...

[SmartCat]

There will always be a balance between sales of ICE & electric vehicles. From economics point of view, if demand for EVs is such that demand for oil starts trending downwards, then the price of oil will fall too. Petrol/diesel prices slowly trending downwards from Rs. 100 per litre to Rs. 20 per litre. What is likely to happen to ICE vehicles demand then?

But hypothetically, let's assume that we have widespread adoption of EVs:

Originally Posted by svsantosh

I feel the below jobs will be culled or scaled down forever and can change the course of job industry forever.

Jobs will be lost in some industries and jobs will be gained in others. Since the process of transport electrification is likely to be slow, there will be enough time for the job market to adjust. Remember that charging infrastructure needs to be setup all over the country in public places and also at individual homes if we are talking serious electrification of transport in India. That should make up for any jobs deficit in assembly or component manufacturing.

This is the hottest topic of all, can anyone even begin to estimate the number of jobs in the oil industry

Even at the macro level, job losses in oil industry should be covered by job gains in lithium mining or power generation or R&D.

Unless we find a Lithium deposit below earth similar to Middle-East oil story from 1970s - hoping the volume of Lithium deposit is the size of 3-4 states combined in India

Known lithium reserves are low only because people have recently started looking for it. Lithium is not exactly rare like Gold. Also, lithium can be recycled or alternative to lithium can be 'discovered' over course of time.

[aim120]

For Motors, you don't need more then 10 people, since everything is automated.

For casting, again the number of components is less, single outer casing for the stator, another for the reduction gear box.

You also have cast aluminium casing for the MCU/Inverter and another casing for the 3 in 1 or 8 in 1 unit (VCU, PDU, OBC, DC-DC, etc).

EVs don't need radiator but it uses the HVAC to cool the Battery and Motor/MCU.

For IC engines, you need to make intake and exhaust manifold, injectors, throttle body, turbo charger, muffler/catalytic converter, fuel pump, fuel tank apart from the main engine. All of this require lot of casting/welding and then machining it.

For Motor, you only need to machine the shaft on a lathe. The Stator and Rotor is made from stamping steel sheets, which is all automated. Winding the stator with copper wire is all automated.

Battery cells, welding the connections to each cell is all automated.

The sub components makers will have to make bus bars, cooling channels machined and laser cut for the battery pack.

Rest of the system is all electronics but it opens up new jobs. Have you seen a production line in any electronics making factory, you have rows of people sitting and installing/soldering a PCB for through the hole components, while SMT components are all automated.

Bosch is one of leading EV component providers, TVS IQube for example uses a Bosch Hub motor. Many of the EV electronics and Motor for even US, EU auto companies is provided by Bosch.

TVS makes brakes, Alternator, Starter but they are a big company and they can adapt and start making electric coolant pump, Vacuum pump for brakes. EVs still need drum and disk brakes.

Every one has to adapt their business to EV. Yes there will be job losses due to EVs, AI, Robots in every industry not just 2 wheeler and 4 wheeler.

We see JCB, CAT starting to offer electric heavy equipment.
Farming equipments, gardening equipments are all moving to electric.

[whitewing]

Originally Posted by svsantosh

I simple do not see how a 5 trillion $ industry can be closed down in 5-10 years.

Unlikely we see that happening in the next decade in India, but over a much longer time.
All the talk of shift to EVs and the Govt PSU IOCL is spending billions in expanding refining capacity.

Originally Posted by svsantosh

Unless someone invents a Nuclear powered car that can run on a spoonful of U235 for 25 years at a stretch...

The chinese claim that they are already at it :-)
https://www.livescience.com/technolo...coming-in-2025

However, despite the need for weighty shielding, nuclear batteries do boast a much higher energy density than conventional lithium-ion batteries — ten times as much according to Betavolt.

[souravdas808]

Originally Posted by whitewing

Unlikely we see that happening in the next decade in India, but over a much longer time.
All the talk of shift to EVs and the Govt PSU IOCL is spending billions in expanding refining capacity.


The chinese claim that they are already at it :-)
https://www.livescience.com/technolo...coming-in-2025

Ours is a fast developing country, we will need more refining capacity even if we are moving towards electric. Developed countries may not repair their old refining capacity, instead dismantle them.

[whitewing]

Originally Posted by souravdas808

Ours is a fast developing country, we will need more refining capacity even if we are moving towards electric. Developed countries may not repair their old refining capacity, instead dismantle them.

India is already one of the top refined product exporters in the world. So, we already produce more than we consume (i.e after including output from the large private players like RIL, Nayara).
Like you say, in Europe, barring the Dutch and the Russians, the outsourcing is already done to countries like India.

The point (in the context of this thread) still is that the manpower need moves from one continent to another and the associated emissions with it.

[Shresth_EV]

Originally Posted by souravdas808

Ours is a fast developing country, we will need more refining capacity even if we are moving towards electric. Developed countries may not repair their old refining capacity, instead dismantle them.

Also, we’re importing record high crude from Russia amid their war, and selling refined products to global north , that’s that.

Source

[sukarsan]

Quite often there is a tendency to think EV will replace ICE. There will always be a dynamic equilibrium. Today the market is split between Petrol/Diesel/CNG/Electric. Flex fuel and H2 will be a part of this mix in the coming years.

Coming to pass car industry, i guess the current split for new car sales is ball park 40(P)/30(D)/20(CNG)/10(EV)( best guess in my experience). This(90% ICE and 10% EV split) will eventually be a different ratio, due to market forces and ICE will always have a lead. In conclusion, for ICE, growth will taper down gradually and I dont expect any new investment or recruitment into the ICE ecosystem.There will be job losses as such. This however will be limited to pass car market. It will be ICE as usual for trucks, tractors , gensets and allied industries.

However, there are countries which have made a pledge for 100% electrification. Based on these pledges , these companies started negotiating with their unions and have been preparing for fewer people employed in assembly lines for year now. (mainly German companies). In my personal opinion, I think this is a strategic move. The companies will have the leverage over the unions and these targets are always pushed forward as per the convenience of the auto makers.

Side Note: The phrase 'Dynamic Equilibrium' was used by my colleague for the blending of ethanol in Petrol in Brazil. The blend ratio is based on many things like demand for sugar, petrol, election cycle, global politics , war etc. I found the term to be very apt and have found it quite useful in explaining the past and future trends to my friends and collegues.

[Ravi Parwan]

one of the prime reasons you see so many lesser people in an EV factory compared to an ICE factory is that with time most processes move towards automation and reduction of manual effort. Compare today's newspaper printers to their state 20-30 years ago. Then you go to a neighborhood printer and you find the same tech being used where a person manually snatches/replaces the paper between every pass of the machine.

My point is that for many of these industry players, the cost of modernization is not justified for the scale of operations. Hence what we see as representative of the ICE industry is maybe 40-50 year old technology while new capacity coming up will mostly be using maybe 10-20 year old technology. This in my opinion is why we feel that EV industry employs lesser people.

Going forward, I agree with Sukarsan and Smartcat, there will be an equilibrium in place. Jobs will be reduced in some industries while being generated in other industries.