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View Poll Results: What do you think of single point of failure risk of going all electric?
Definitely makes sense to have a mix of (electric + traditional fuel) for transport 104 61.18%
Not a big deal. Solution lies in mitigating such risks. Continue with 100% electrification plans 55 32.35%
Not sure/ Can't say/ No strong opinion either way 11 6.47%
Voters: 170. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 16th September 2023, 09:37   #31
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Re: The Black Swan "single point of failure" Risk of going All Electric

Quote:
Originally Posted by SmartCat View Post
India, Saudi to link power grids using subsea cable
This is the step in right direction, we have sunlight falling on one side of earth at any given point of time. So sharing the electricity generated between the countries is the way to go. The difference in consumption needs to be billed.

But those who use oil as a way to force their currency down the throats of rest of the world won't allow it.


Quote:
Originally Posted by wocanak View Post

Most important point, in the emergency scenario where only petroleum is available and not electricity, you can easily generate electricity with the plethora of generators available in India to charge EVs. But in a scenario where electricity is available but no petroleum, there is no easy way to convert it to petroleum.

So EVs are better off in a black swan event!
Indeed a possible scenario.

But when oil became mainstay, there were global oil crisis which led to creation of "strategic reserves".

So when EVs emerge as replacement to ice, these solutions might also would have been worked out.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ferrarirules View Post

Yes the biggest hindrance today for EV adoption is OPEC+. Obviously these oil majors don't want to lose relevance in the world. They are acting wisely by delaying the adoption as much as possible. At the same time, they are hedging their bets by investing in green technologies. Example - Reliance has gone full blown into creating a green portfolio of its own.
You nailed it.

When they saw that the cost to pump out oil using solar power was significantly lower than the diesel generators they were using ( if I remember it was 6 cents in solar to 20 cents in diesel in a 2018 report).

That gave the creeps to the oil extraction companies - they saw the writing on the wall.

This jolted the middle East out of the slumber. They knew it that in next 30 years China will figure out how to store solar generated electricity at a fraction of the cost of what's available in today's technology.

The sodium ion battery is a huge promise for static high capacity backup. The energy density of sodium ion matches previous generation li-ion batteries at a significantly lower costs.

So some of OPECs leading countries like Saudi Arabia transformed even their social outlook altogether.

They won't be able to afford hiring manpower from other countries anymore in future.

So it's a matter of time before solar power becomes mainstay. It's becoming cheaper and cheaper to produce solar panels.

The need of the hour is to recycle the destroyed panels and batteries. Presently it's practically non existent.
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Old 17th September 2023, 08:19   #32
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Re: The Black Swan "single point of failure" Risk of going All Electric

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Originally Posted by GTE View Post
Exactly when I got the news that my father expired in Poona I realised that I couldn't take a car as my MG ZS charge was about 40%.

Sorry to hear that.

But the chances of 'not having enough range to cover an emergency in time' statistically is not proven to be greater than chances of 'breakdown by any number of other mechanical failures' like a punctured tyre.
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Old 17th September 2023, 12:01   #33
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Re: The Black Swan "single point of failure" Risk of going All Electric

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Originally Posted by sreeharipv View Post
Sorry to hear that.

But the chances of 'not having enough range to cover an emergency in time' statistically is not proven to be greater than chances of 'breakdown by any number of other mechanical failures' like a punctured tyre.
That kind of a mechanical failure can be rectified faster than a car can be charged.
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Old 17th September 2023, 15:51   #34
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Re: The Black Swan "single point of failure" Risk of going All Electric

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Originally Posted by sreeharipv View Post
Sorry to hear that.

But the chances of 'not having enough range to cover an emergency in time' statistically is not proven to be greater than chances of 'breakdown by any number of other mechanical failures' like a punctured tyre.
Please share a study that shows this. Range is definitely a huge compromise with EV and being useless in an emergency is typically what keeps people away from it. I've got an near empty tank in my car right now, I can be on my way to my home 600km away in about 15 mins with range to spare when I get there,no electric car comes anywhere close. Punctures and breakdowns are rarer than low battery warnings any day, has been for nearly 2 decades.

Basically this arrogant attitude is what keeps normal people from EVs," no problem if you can't help your parents when they're helpless, you are saving the planet" is not the flex you think it is.
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Old 17th September 2023, 21:13   #35
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Re: The Black Swan "single point of failure" Risk of going All Electric

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Originally Posted by avira_tk View Post

Basically this arrogant attitude is what keeps normal people from EVs," no problem if you can't help your parents when they're helpless, you are saving the planet" is not the flex you think it is.
No. The average indian buyer is unlikely to have made the decision based on the arrogance (or the lack of) of a BHPian. I think most people buy or not buy an EV
based on

1. Budget
2. Facility for (setting up) home charging.
3. Justification in terms of money saving (not environment).

Meta fears like the feeling that EVs will kill the fun of driving or highway charging fears (most people do not do long drives or do them rarely) are mostly for automobile enthusiasts like us.
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Old 17th September 2023, 22:37   #36
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Re: The Black Swan "single point of failure" Risk of going All Electric

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Originally Posted by avira_tk View Post
if you can't help your parents when they're helpless, you are saving the planet.
So those who come to work in Bangalore from places like Assam should relocate back because even their ICE car is useless or those south Indians working in Noida or Gurgaon should go back, afterall what's the point to have a job so far away when you cannot help your parents when they're are helpless.

We should also avoid going to other countries as it sometimes takes few days to reach India.

Attending an emergency situation hundreds of kms is probably a once( or twice) in lifetime need. I stay 1000km away from my parents, it takes 19hrs of non stop driving, I just prefer a flight or train just like 95% of Indians, my parents are taken care by family and friends before I could reach them.
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Old 18th September 2023, 07:45   #37
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Re: The Black Swan "single point of failure" Risk of going All Electric

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Originally Posted by SKC-auto View Post
So those who come to work in Bangalore from places like Assam should relocate back because even their ICE car is useless or those south Indians working in Noida or Gurgaon should go back, afterall what's the point to have a job so far away when you cannot help your parents when they're are helpless.

We should also avoid going to other countries as it sometimes takes few days to reach India.

Attending an emergency situation hundreds of kms is probably a once( or twice) in lifetime need. I stay 1000km away from my parents, it takes 19hrs of non stop driving, I just prefer a flight or train just like 95% of Indians, my parents are taken care by family and friends before I could reach them.
The original post refers to a Mumbai - Pune journey, something that you could do 50 years ago without any planning, just a stop to to up your radiator. The thread is about the limits of going all electric, currently, outside urban limits, on highways they use a generator to run a fuel pump, electricity supply being perennially unreliable, good luck charging your EV. If electric was such a good thing, no one will need convincing, people aren't stupid. The vehicles, infrastructure and cost are simply not for the majority, they'll get there eventually, they're good city runabouts for now.

You raised a good point about those who live far away from home, they have made a tradeoff. Please don't post such hyperbole about long distance travel, if your car can't take you to the airport in an emergency, it's not very useful. I've attended a few funerals where the children who were abroad, couldn't make it. If you weren't around when your parents were alive, why should anyone wait for you after they're gone.

I gave a realistic scenario, if you're far away like you mentioned, no one will call you in an emergency. They'll inform you, because you're not particularly useful at that point, that's a reality a lot of people live with. We can have a thread on that, it'll be an endless discussion.
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Old 18th September 2023, 09:18   #38
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Re: The Black Swan "single point of failure" Risk of going All Electric

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Originally Posted by avira_tk View Post
The original post refers to a Mumbai - Pune journey, something that you could do 50 years ago without any planning, just a stop to to up your radiator. The thread is about the limits of going all electric, currently, outside urban limits, on highways they use a generator to run a fuel pump, electricity supply being perennially unreliable, good luck charging your EV. If electric was such a good thing, no one will need convincing, people aren't stupid. The vehicles, infrastructure and cost are simply not for the majority, they'll get there eventually, they're good city runabouts for now.
If you go by the title of the poll we are talking about a Black Swan event and strategic planning in risk mitigation from a governmental/societal point of view. It has nothing to do with personal tragedy. Now a personal tragedy is as much a Black swan event in that person's life but strategic planning from a government point of view cannot be to focused on such events. Taking a medical analogy a government health policy/strategy should be ideally focused more towards public health, target wide spread vector disease like malaria than the latest cure in some particular and often rare disease. Is it good to have facility for addressing this rare disease ? Sure but when there is a large public health problem, like for example COVID, the focus of (the often limited) government funds should be in addressing such issues.

Climate change is a serious existential problem that is facing humanity and electrification is one of the prerequisites for even starting to address the problem. So when you evaluate a strategy like going electric and zero oil, one should evaluate the policy in that context. Not in personal terms.

Coming to this particular case, it is indeed the case that not having enough charge can be a problem in the case of an emergency. However, imagine a situation where most of our long term parking lots have slow charging facility. Imagine a situation where we can always plug in our EV into a charging facility without worrying about how many charge cycles how to make the payments etc. Putting a car on charging when parking should be as intuitive as engaging the parking brake for example. These kind of issues will automatically be addressed as our cars will more or less be 100% charged always.

Are we there yet ? In terms of the battery and BMS technology I think yes but clearly not in terms of charging infrastructure. If we take the strategic decision to move to complete electrification will we get there ? Hell yes and can be achieved in short time if we go about it in a mission mode. Are there hurdles ? Many, Smarter grid, charging facility, economic models like fast tag for charging payments, recycling facilities etc. Are they more complicated than the oil refining and distribution network? No in fact it is much more simpler and more resilient. And finally am I a card carrying fan of Greta or Musk for arguing this point ? I don't think so.

Last edited by electric_eel : 18th September 2023 at 09:30. Reason: typo
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Old 19th September 2023, 09:18   #39
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Re: The Black Swan "single point of failure" Risk of going All Electric

Mod Note: Debates are good, but keep them healthy. Please be calm, polite & respectful, even in debates. Thanks for the support & understanding
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Old 19th September 2023, 09:54   #40
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Re: The Black Swan "single point of failure" Risk of going All Electric

Some very good points here.
Just yesterday I was discussing the same with my wife.
Thing is we have 2 cars. Both diesel.
Tiago will be 7 years old in an year and some months. We might replace it earlier too. Now question was what to buy in place of tiago. Best option is Tiago Ev or upcoming Punch Ev. However I plan to get a Ev too once Sonet is replaced in few years. Now having 2 Ev at home seems like a gamble. The Ev infrastructure is still growing.

I am not fond of Cng but a Punch cng makes more sense than a Punch ev if we don't want to keep both Ev cars until accessibility to chargers are as easy as filling petrol. Anyways still more than a year to make up our mind. Personally I would still love to have Punch ev.

Last edited by harry10 : 19th September 2023 at 09:56.
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Old 19th September 2023, 20:10   #41
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Re: The Black Swan "single point of failure" Risk of going All Electric

Quote:
Originally Posted by avira_tk View Post
I've got an near empty tank in my car right now, I can be on my way to my home 600km away in about 15 mins with range to spare when I get there,no electric car comes anywhere close.
What happens when there's an extended power outage and no one in your neighbourhood has an EV that could've supported someone's life support device for few days through V2L?

What happens if a war breaks out and major refineries and fuel depots are taken out?

What happens when you drive to the middle of a forest and runs out of fuel? (This happened to me in Big Bend National Park in Texas - some of the most stressful hours in my life).

Corner cases are, well.. corner cases. You can always hire a taxi for that twice in a lifetime emergency. Remember, there are much more people in our country without personal vehicles than there are with.

Just think backwards once. How people would've reacted if EVs were the norm and somebody just introduced ICEV.

1. What? You can't charge it at home?
2. What do you mean you can't wait in the car with AC on without spending a bomb?
3. What is this thing vibrating so much?
4. What's that awful smell?
5. Is that SMOKE coming out at the back? Why are covered parkings getting so smelly these days?
6. What's engine oil? Why do I have to change it every few months? None of my other equipment seem to need it?
7. Why it ain't moving for a second after I press the accelerator?
8. Why do I have to replace the clutch plate and brake pads so often?
9. Why did I lose my brakes driving down the hills for few kms?
10. Why it sounds so stressed every time I press the accelerator?

Quote:

Basically this arrogant attitude is what keeps normal people from EVs," no problem if you can't help your parents when they're helpless, you are saving the planet" is not the flex you think it is.
As long as I'm not under an oath to arrive in my own car for help with emergency.
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Old 19th September 2023, 21:34   #42
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Re: The Black Swan "single point of failure" Risk of going All Electric

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Originally Posted by ferrarirules View Post
Why is this a concern when everything is being electrified?? When all trains moved from steam to fossil fuel or all cars moved from steam/hand drawn/animal drawn to fossil fuel or building heating moved from wood fire based heating to gas based heating or when all communication went from landline to mobile phones or many more such examples, this was never a concern.
Also there were all sorts of concerns when we moved from tubed tyres to tubeless tyres and from Carb to MPFI. Finally they have become the norm today.


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Originally Posted by Chisels121 View Post
Sir,

With due respect, I am aware that all of our members have the right to express their opinions on the forum but I personally feel you are turning a blind eye to many real difficulties in the ownership of EVs around the globe because you love them.
Any new concept comes with difficulties. It's only a matter of time before they find solutions.

Quote:
It has a good number and all of them are rolling coal as they say.

The scenario that you want is still a good 15 years away and till then EVs would be as niche as they are today. As someone rightly said all of this EV hoopla that Musk has created is just helping the government to cover the real polluting companies in the blanket. Ex- Coal India Limited and TISCO to some extent.
I'm surprised that no one anti-EV brigade has posted that photo of a train carrying coal and the Charger with a Diesel generator and something about cobalt mining and disposal of Lithium Ion batteries.


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Originally Posted by ferrarirules View Post
Yes the biggest hindrance today for EV adoption is OPEC+.
And manufacturers who don't have EV's in their model line up.
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Old 20th September 2023, 08:33   #43
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Re: The Black Swan "single point of failure" Risk of going All Electric

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Originally Posted by SmartCat View Post
Just to clarify, I'm not an anti-electrification guy. Poll question no. 1 refers to maintaining a balance between electrification/fossil fuels while poll question No. 2 is about continuing with 100% electrification but after solutions for mitigating widespread outage risks are developed.
I was recently speaking with someone involved in black start technology - recovering from the scenario you painted. Basically it involves disconnection of the grid, quick restarts in each section and then gradual re-integration. Many interesting tech work happening here.

While prevention is better than cure, if an attack does happen, we are working towards quick recovery it seems.
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Old 21st September 2023, 15:08   #44
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Re: The Black Swan "single point of failure" Risk of going All Electric

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Originally Posted by sreeharipv View Post
What happens when there's an extended power outage and no one in your neighbourhood has an EV that could've supported someone's life support device for few days through V2L?

What happens if a war breaks out and major refineries and fuel depots are taken out?

What happens when you drive to the middle of a forest and runs out of fuel? (This happened to me in Big Bend National Park in Texas - some of the most stressful hours in my life).

Corner cases are, well.. corner cases. You can always hire a taxi for that twice in a lifetime emergency. Remember, there are much more people in our country without personal vehicles than there are with.

Just think backwards once. How people would've reacted if EVs were the norm and somebody just introduced ICEV.
...
As long as I'm not under an oath to arrive in my own car for help with emergency.
Hospitals and apartment complexes have diesel generators for the situation you described, who sits at home with life support and without any backup? What kind of EV that can't get very far is you switch on the AC will run life support equipment. V2L is possible only in rare situations, useful, but not essential.

A major war will take out the demand for EV and such late stage empire hobbies like climate change activism. That scenario will play out eventually, but that's a different discussion.

How did you even think of going through a national park without enough fuel?

I feel obligated to answer those questions, here goes

1. What? You can't charge it at home?

You can't charge it at home because you live in an apartment and power backup is for essentials. You can, however, get a full month's worth of fuel in 5 minutes at the petrol bunk, the public charging equivalent. ICE actually replaced electric because of range.

2. What do you mean you can't wait in the car with AC on without spending a bomb?

It takes 5 minutes to refuel, you can keep the engine running, no need to switch off the ac, even if you do, the shade will keep the cabin cool till you top up.

3. What is this thing vibrating so much?

This only happens if your vehicle is a diesel jeep from the 60s, however the alternative is usually a few days trek with your luggage on your head through rough terrain infested with dangerous creatures. Upholstered seats solved this problem in bullock carts ages ago.

4. What's that awful smell?

Garbage around you, with the ac on, what smell do you get on a daily drive? The exhaust is placed a few meters behind the driver in any vehicle, unless you drive a tiller or tractor.

5. Is that SMOKE coming out at the back? Why are covered parkings getting so smelly these days?

Yes, smoke that you get from literally anything that produces something of value or tasty, like food. The parking lots are smelly because the real estate crooks didn't provide for adequate ventilation. After parking your vehicle, how long do you stick around?

6. What's engine oil? Why do I have to change it every few months? None of my other equipment seem to need it?

It's called lubricant your treadmill needs it, just like your electric car's drive system that the manufacturer claimed is sealed for life. Your shoes need polish, this is the vehicular equivalent.

7. Why it ain't moving for a second after I press the accelerator?

A second, at a traffic light, the car in front doesn't move until at least after 5 seconds in my experience, just went through it again on my daily route. Nobody pays good money to get a sprained neck while commuting.

8. Why do I have to replace the clutch plate and brake pads so often?

Poor driving skills, I replaced my clutch after 7 years and 110k kms, that replacement was changed under warranty because my SA pushed it, saying that the original clutch lasted longer than most. It took a total of 3 hours, it'll take about that long to change the tyres on a vehicle unless the shop has no customers.

9. Why did I lose my brakes driving down the hills for few kms?

You have not learned to select the right gear or not ride the brakes. My father and uncles who came to pick me up from school in an Ambassador had no trouble like this,that too on the Coonoor - Mettupalayam Road, 6000ft to sea level in under 20km.

10. Why it sounds so stressed every time I press the accelerator?

This is not going to go away, you chose the weaker drive train, taxes are the reason. Your government will figure a way to tax EV the same way.

You're not under oath to arrive with your car in an emergency, some of us older folks think being useful in a crisis is a good thing.

The black swan event is something out of our control but given that we don't take utilities for granted I'm sure we'll come out OK. The reason why the grid is unstable is because of financial chicanery with public utilities and the crisis of competence when political loyalties result in hiring people unsuitable for managing anything, much less crucial complicated systems.

A post mentioned smart grid something to solve the climate crisis. Imagine a situation where the electric utility hires thousands of plumbers and welders who failed their SLC, then paid them nearly a 1-1.5 lakhs a month, placing them in supervisory roles, what kind of infrastructure will you end up with? The scenario is not imaginary, it's the situation on the ground(will pm a link of you want), how does it affect you personally you ask? The government will bill you for the expenses, either in electricity bill payments or taxes on vehicles, in short you'll pay those salaries and inflation adjusted pensions.

You location is not in India, perhaps you're out of touch with what things are like over here.
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