[NewUser123]

If we’re truly talking about “Black Swans”, then I would put solar flares right up there.

From:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/a...-solar-flares/

A 2022 study of tree rings, which can record prehistoric solar storms in their growth, found evidence that huge radiation spikes, dubbed Miyake events, occurred several times across millennia. If caused by gargantuan solar flares, such events would be enough to cause significant disruption to power grids and satellites today. Yet the events do not seem to have a consistent relationship with the solar cycle, and some appeared to last longer than a year—far longer than any known flare—so their true origins remain a mystery.

“As a person who works with this every day, I am way more scared of a ‘doomsday’ derived from terrestrial weather like forest fires, hurricanes and extreme weather,” Palmerio concludes. “At every solar cycle, it’s as if we forgot what happened in the previous one. In [the cycle that stretched from 1996 to 2008], we saw really strong events. And I’m pretty sure that most people didn’t even know those events happened.... We have to monitor, and we have to be prepared. But we do not have to lose sleep over this.”

[Chisels121]

Originally Posted by SKC-auto

With due respect to you, these polls are pointless on a largely ICE enthusiastic forum, I know the outcome even before anyone voted.

Sir,

With due respect, I am aware that all of our members have the right to express their opinions on the forum but I personally feel you are turning a blind eye to many real difficulties in the ownership of EVs around the globe because you love them. Your thinking that the West is moving towards hydel or solar power rapidly is Wrong. At least 20 out of 50 US states don't have a single windmill to generate electricity. Ex- UTAH and Alabama.

It has a good number and all of them are rolling coal as they say.

The scenario that you want is still a good 15 years away and till then EVs would be as niche as they are today. As someone rightly said all of this EV hoopla that Musk has created is just helping the government to cover the real polluting companies in the blanket. Ex- Coal India Limited and TISCO to some extent.

[GTE]

I actually did want to have a battery back up to my solar system so that I could isolate myself from the grid. At one point I was thinking it would be great to buy (if possible) the Kona batteries that were swapped out as part of a recall. Unfortunately I don't have enough knowledge to be able to set it up. Would be great being able to go off grid. Enphase is planning to offer batteries at some point but I believe that would be very expensive.

[ferrarirules]

After reading all the comments and seeing the poll results. I don't know why people think electrification is going to ruin lives. Had we gone by this ideology, we would have never invented a steam engine, then IC engine, then electric motor, then hydrogen ICE engine, then hydrogen fuel cell engine.

Today the world is moving towards electrification like we moved towards IC from steam engine. Who is saying that the transformation is going to stop on EVs, humans have a default nature to strive for something new or something different. So today we are moving to EVs, 10 years down the line may be there is something better discovered and people will start adopting that.

The question of single point of failure will never come as we will constant innovation and risk mitigation.

Originally Posted by GTE

Unfortunately I don't have enough knowledge to be able to set it up. Would be great being able to go off grid. Enphase is planning to offer batteries at some point but I believe that would be very expensive.

It is completely possible in India to live off a grid. My colleague just setup a 2.5+2.5 KWH (parallel) - 5 KWH in total - LFP battery setup for his on grid solar. He has a hybrid inverter on his solar so when the light is out, his solar powers the house. These batteries add to the backup if outage is at night. If you want to know the details, i can share with you his number.

[udzgodfather]

To me, the lack of comfort that I have with ev's is the quick recharge and move, a close known of mine bought Ola last year, the gripe that I have with it is that sometimes after using the ola for the entire day, I have to put it in the charging and it gets me stuck, because now I can't go anywhere until its charged back to a good proportion, whereas ICE are touch and go at the fuel bunks, allowing me to use the car for as long as I want.

Imagine coming home after a long day of work and now there's a emergency and you have to leave but the car is not charged, I'll refrain from going EV till we have solution for this.

[GeeTee TSI]

An apocalyptic situation I don't see as a reason to look at EVs differently, but I feel that having renewable electricity sources and EVs being charged from the grid is no reason to believe that we will bid farewell to crude and ICE (not limited to personal mobility)

For all you know there will always be some application (either electricity generation or motive force) powered by liquid fuels, so a final farewell to crude (extraction, transportation, refining) is what seems as a fairy tale (from where I am right now)

[GTE]

Originally Posted by udzgodfather

To me, the lack of comfort that I have with ev's is the quick recharge and move.

Imagine coming home after a long day of work and now there's a emergency and you have to leave but the car is not charged, I'll refrain from going EV till we have solution for this.

Exactly when I got the news that my father expired in Poona I realised that I couldn't take a car as my MG ZS charge was about 40%.

[svsantosh]

Success of EVs & an All Electric Infrastructure will be purposely delayed by the very countries that are making them or saying 'EV by 2030 or 40)

Early 1800s upto 1880s the 'Steam Car - ECE' (external combustion engine) was in rapid phase of research and development. Steam cars peaked from 1890 to 1915, then WW-1 happened (take note). At the peak of Industrial revolution the 'ICE Car' was invented say around 1860's. The idea took 40-50 years to catch on, and it was not until WW-1 the 'Gasoline Car' sales took off (1905 Ford mass production caught on, but the end of WW-1 was the point where passenger car sales took off.

Thing to observe here is all the way from early 1800s to 1940s there was no commercialized wind power or solar power or more importantly nuclear power. Thermal (coal) power plants was the only source.

Now let us look at the driving force (literally) behind the ICE.

Country - Company - Founded - Recent Revenue
USA - Exonn - 1882 - 413Bn$
USA - Shell - 1907 - 381Bn$
USA - Chevron - 1879 - 250Bn$
UK - BP - 1909 - 241Bn$
France - Total - 1924 - 280bn$
Saudi - ARAMCO - 1933 - 535Bn$

Iran - NIOC - 1951 ----
Bolivia - PDVSA - 1976 - 48Bn$
China - PetroChina - 1999 - 297Bn$
China - Sinopec - 2000 - 482Bn$
Russia - Lukoil - 1991 - 128Bn$
Russia - Rosneft - 1993 - 93Bn$
Russia -Surgutneftegas- 1977 - 20bn$
Russia - Gazprom - 1989 - 87Bn$
Russia - Transneft - 1993 - 13bn$

The WWs 1&2 followed after oil exploration started in full swing. The whole world works on hydrocarbons today, not just petrol or diesel - every plastic, polymer, textile, synthetic, pharma, hardware we use comprises of petrochemicals. There is no way a multi trillion industry, the Chapter-1 classical definition of Basics of Mechanical Engineering will be wiped out this soon. Oil only began a century ago, billions of people are working directly or indirectly due to Oil. The entire War & Defence & Weapons industry feeds on it. Oil is here to stay for a very very long time...

EVs are what Ferrari's and Lambo's are for - every kids room poster dreams only. EV infrastructure will NOT be expanded to the scale where the Oil industry's existence will be challenged.

PS - Now revisit the years in the above data again. Many of the last 25-30 years global events would make sense (at least to some).

[electric_eel]

I find it strange that people think petroleum supply is safer than electricity in the event of a black swan event. For an enemy force it is rather trivial to hit the petroleum source. Naval blockade, hit on one of the oil refinery the options are unlimited. Please check out how far is the biggest refinery in India/world from our border. The infrastructure for the production and distribution of oil is complex and fragile. It can be easily disrupted by hostile forces and natural calamities.

In contrast electricity is one of the easiest source of power to generate locally (rooftop solar, biogas, small wind farms, micro hydro projects), distribute efficiently (just wires), convert to other forms with minimal losses (Electric motors are 90% efficient) and, with the recent advancement of battery technology, the safest and simplest to store. It is also one of the sources that we in India have in abundance. We should push really hard for complete electrification, not just for transportation but for every other energy need. It will save our economy directly by cutting down our oil import bills and lead to a better environment.

[ferrarirules]

Originally Posted by svsantosh

EVs are what Ferrari's and Lambo's are for - every kids room poster dreams only. EV infrastructure will NOT be expanded to the scale where the Oil industry's existence will be challenged.

Yes the biggest hindrance today for EV adoption is OPEC+. Obviously these oil majors don't want to lose relevance in the world. They are acting wisely by delaying the adoption as much as possible. At the same time, they are hedging their bets by investing in green technologies. Example - Reliance has gone full blown into creating a green portfolio of its own.

[electric_eel]

Originally Posted by ferrarirules

Yes the biggest hindrance today for EV adoption is OPEC+. Obviously these oil majors don't want to lose relevance in the world. They are acting wisely by delaying the adoption as much as possible. At the same time, they are hedging their bets by investing in green technologies. Example - Reliance has gone full blown into creating a green portfolio of its own.

Or just invest or make noise on things that look green -- Hydrogen for example.

[sanstorm]

I picked "Not Sure" for the following reasons and would wait n watch -

1) Emphasis on technology tends to point to failure (distribution, cost controls and waiting/blackmailing). For me waiting for hours for turn at a charging station or being stranded nowhere is strict No No (peace of mind++time is also money)
2) Early adopters are picking up as novelty, however junta for cost of running
(IMHO Indian Govt will not let their fuel cess/VAT income go so easily and would find ways to cross-charge BEVs. Reminds me of the CNG and Diesel journey from huge subsidy to what it is now)
3) Innovations would lead to better sustenance technologies or existing infra-optimisation options (convert IC to other technologies)

[wocanak]

Originally Posted by electric_eel

In contrast electricity is one of the easiest source of power to generate locally (rooftop solar, biogas, small wind farms, micro hydro projects), distribute efficiently (just wires), convert to other forms with minimal losses (Electric motors are 90% efficient) and, with the recent advancement of battery technology, the safest and simplest to store. It is also one of the sources that we in India have in abundance. We should push really hard for complete electrification, not just for transportation but for every other energy need. It will save our economy directly by cutting down our oil import bills and lead to a better environment.

Most important point, in the emergency scenario where only petroleum is available and not electricity, you can easily generate electricity with the plethora of generators available in India to charge EVs. But in a scenario where electricity is available but no petroleum, there is no easy way to convert it to petroleum.

So EVs are better off in a black swan event!

[SmartCat]

India, Saudi to link power grids using subsea cable
https://www.livemint.com/news/india/...457528062.html

India and Saudi Arabia agreed to link their power grids, underscoring a deepening energy alliance that could significantly boost the reliability of power grids in both countries and foster economic development.

India has been exploring linking its power grid with those of Saudi Arabia and the UAE through subsea cables from its west coast and with the power grid of Singapore from the east coast. By sharing power resources across regions, countries can reduce the need for costly renewable energy storage solutions and improve the reliability of their power grids. India’s pursuit of grid interconnectivity could also prove critical to its long-term economic and energy security goals. India is pursuing the One Sun One World One Grid (OSOWOG) plan, which aims to connect countries through a global power grid.

More info on OSOWOG:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_...orld,_One_Grid
https://isolaralliance.org/work/osowog/

[Joe367]

Originally Posted by SmartCat

I think we are going all electric without fully considering the risks of doing so -

The important point to consider here is that for a country like India electrification will never happen overnight. I don't see 100% electrification happening in next 15 years. 🤔