[extreme_torque]

Originally Posted by outdoorlover

Absolutely! India has to use its strength of being one of the largest markets in the world (3rd largest auto market) well.

China cannot think that they can get unfettered access to our markets across all products and then go claim our territory as theirs. Trade is a great leveller and its high time that we tell them, go fish!

On sheers numbers sold yes we are but it is mostly composed of cheap and cheerful cars. For e.g. Mercedes's one month sale in China is almost equal to 5 years worth of their sales in India. You could say the same about the other German 2. The market does not yet have cheap and cheerful EV's with decent range and performance let alone the cost at which most of us can afford in India in any meaningful volumes. BYD has both scale and battery tech in their favor and if Europe is okay with BYD at their shores I wonder what issues do we do or could have. We may never know because the decision making by the GOI is a blackbox right now. By the way Chinese already have indirect presence in India since all battery and EV powertrain supply chain is basically Chinese.

Chinese companies literally own the smartphone market in India and I consider it much more egregious than a car given the scale of data we have in our smartphones - from my personal photos, to emails to location data, bank details and what not. The data, whatever it is, in a car is relatively harmless in comparison.

As for territorial claims, the present GOI's position is that Chinese have not infiltrated or taken over any of our territories and yet you are okay with govt taking a completely different position when it comes to this decision. What gives?

[anandhsub]

Originally Posted by extreme_torque

if Europe is okay with BYD at their shores I wonder what issues do we do or could have.

The right comparison would be a Russian automaker. Do you think Europe would be fine with that?

[extreme_torque]

Originally Posted by anandhsub

The right comparison would be a Russian automaker. Do you think Europe would be fine with that?

We need to first agree whether it is border skirmishes and aggression or it is data security? If it is border skirmishes and aggression then why allow anything Chinese including the smartphone market which is practically all chinese at this stage. How is the discretion being arrived at? We are still wholly dependent on chinese supply chain for our own domestic EV tech, two wheelers and 4 wheelers.

[outdoorlover]

Originally Posted by extreme_torque

We need to first agree whether it is border skirmishes and aggression or it is data security? =

I donot believe data security because Smartphones have the highest risk exposure there and we should have banned Vivo/Xiaomi/ Oppo and the likes long back. Huawei was blocked because of security reasons in India and several countries.

Maybe GOI has taken a stand basis what they have seen as their modus operandi in the bus venture with the same JV partner who seems to be only a non-acting facade.

[neerajku]

In an ideal world investment of any sort is welcome. Many of us believe that relations with China or for that matter Pakistan can become better if we have intense trade relations, lots of investment from them to us or from us too them. Like US the corporates become our flag bearers, forming caucuses and pushing for normalisation.
Another school believes that tightening the screws will make big businesses push Chinese polity for normal relations. Unfortunately both of them dont seem to work there. This is a pure dictatorial government and does not owe anything to commercial interests. See the destruction of larger powerful corporate entities in the last two years.
Dont see current government or for that matter any government normalising relations soon.The hostility is too deep and trust deficit too strong for any such thing to materialise in the near future.

[Jeroen]

I see a lot of pro’s and con’s being mentioned here. When it comes to China, I believe you need to take a far more long term view (at least 30+ years) and a far more holistic view on what China is aiming for long long term.

The world at large is heavily dependent on China. It happened in literally just a couple of decades without almost anybody worrying about it. Whether it is consumer products, raw materials, finance etc. As it is, many countries owe their soul to China. China has not pursued a world domination policy from a military point of view. (Of course, the India Chinese border issues and people getting killed out there are very real). But they do not have a doctrine on conquering other countries as such.

But they have a doctrine that makes them an economic force to be reckoned with. Their domination is very much economic. China slowly and surely is getting its tentacles into almost all countries economy, through business and financing. And that also means political involvement eventually.

I am going to extremely blunt, but I would not trust any Chinese further than I can throw him or her. They are out there to capture everything and anything. They just work along a timeline and strategy almost none of us can imagine. They are not hampered by elections, democracy and so on.

So it is strategically important for all countries to reduce reliance on China, for everything they do. At least get it back to a level where there is a healthy balance in trade and other interest on a more or less equal footing and fair basis.

The biggest mistake anybody or any nation can make is thinking China investments will help them out. Yes, it might mean you get consumer access to cheaper, good quality products. But in the end you are just making a pact with the devil. I find it is extremely naive from any officials to think positive about China.

All these people in charge need to take a couple of years training about what China is all about, before allowing them to say anything about these deals, let alone, approve such deals. Unfortunately, in democracies competence and long term strategic thinking on behalf of the nation are not required in order to hold any governmental position. Most democracies only require you to have of a minimum age and be a national. Great for democracy in theory. In practice seeing through the Chinese needs skills and competence very few of us possess.

Jeroen

[extreme_torque]

Originally Posted by outdoorlover

I donot believe data security because Smartphones have the highest risk exposure there and we should have banned Vivo/Xiaomi/ Oppo and the likes long back. Huawei was blocked because of security reasons in India and several countries.

Pray tell me what data would your car hold for your vs your phone? Your phone literally knows everything that there is to know about you.

[kiku007]

A trip down memory lane in my personal view.

The early 2000s:

• Auto enthusiasts welcomed global automakers. IIRC there wasn't any political considerations at that time.
• Chinese Automakers were a joke and we made fun of them here (Car Designs copied by the Chinese). Not without merit though. After all, they were shamelessly copying.

The late 2010s:

• The American automakers had pretty much given up.
• The Koreans automakers proved to be successful.
• The Chinese had decided to go all in on BEVs, almost skipping the ICE generation and were emerging leaders in that space.
• The Chinese are keen to enter the Indian auto scene and could arguably be well suited to fill in the void created by the Americans and the scaled back Europeans.
• This happened,

The early 2020s:

• Tesla wants to import and sell but not manufacture. There's some back and forth and to be honest I don't know what's really happening. I guess India is keen if Tesla is setting up a manufacturing plant.
• MG and BYD want to invest or expand their investment. I understand from reports that the proposals aren't approved. Basically they got snubbed.
• I can see in TBHP that there's a growing sentiment against Chinese automakers due to political reasons and not because of their competency.

My musings:

• A typical consumer would welcome competition and competent products that offer them the best value for their money.
• As far as I know India doesn't have the end-to-end 100% indigenous capabilities to manufacture BEVs at scale. Basically the components are imported from China.
• The automobile industry has become a canvas to paint a picture that the Chinese aren't welcome. At an individual level I respect the choice of someone to boycott a Chinese car company. Its your free will. However, by stopping the investment of Chinese companies, the Government is reducing competition which will hurt majority of the consumers and the maturity of the industry itself.
• How would people react when the Government does a about-face anytime and asks their children to wear the Chinese President's face as a mask and stand under the sun to welcome him to the next summit in India?
• What would be the impact of this to the Indian auto market by the end of this decade?
  • Will the consumer end up being collateral damage due to this trade war or,
  • would this force Indian automakers to step-up?

Time will give the answers I suppose.

[outdoorlover]

Originally Posted by extreme_torque

Pray tell me what data would your car hold for your vs your phone? Your phone literally knows everything that there is to know about you.

That's precisely what I have said, haven't I? BYD's blocking couldnot have been because of data security concerns as smartphones pose a much higher risk.

[chennai-indian]

Originally Posted by extreme_torque

We need to first agree whether it is border skirmishes and aggression or it is data security? If it is border skirmishes and aggression then why allow anything Chinese including the smartphone market which is practically all chinese at this stage. How is the discretion being arrived at? We are still wholly dependent on chinese supply chain for our own domestic EV tech, two wheelers and 4 wheelers.

It is in 2017 after the Doklam incident that the tensions between India and China flared up. Until then, GOI thought they could have a "normal" relationship with China.

- Chinese smartphone makers were already present in the Indian market by 2017.
- MG came to India in 2017 before the Doklam incident. That is why they were allowed to continue. MG has seen the writing on the wall - hence trying to sell a majority stake in MG India.

- Greatwall Motors also tried to "invest" - was rejected.

- Now BYD rejected.

As Jeroen pointed out, the Chinese play the long game and they do not want India to prosper. All we have to look at Galwan issue and also the recent "stapled visas" issue.

So all in call, good decision by GOI.

[StarrySky]

The way things are going now, with the traditional automakers having struggles adapting to EV era and the Chinese competition heating up, I think the Chinese companies will have majority share or will outright own some of the European companies in a decade's time. What will we do then?

To be clear, I have no sympathy for Chinese companies (be in automakers or cellphone makers or whatever). But as Jeroen mentioned in his post, in the long-term everything will be probably Chinese. I think India as a country should do everything to reduce dependence on the Chinese in all spheres with an eye on our long-term future. In the EV space, I think we should not only block Chinese investment, but also start denying subsidies given to automakers sourcing parts from China.

[fhdowntheline]

When any decisions with a strategic purpose are made, it is important to acknowledge the gaps and work on alternatives. If this is being done, it is at least not so visible. Imbalance also exists on the western front, where the services sector especially IT is heavily dependent on. Our education programs are still fully focused on churning out graduates who will venture to greener pastures without having any commitment towards the national cause. How many educational institutes mandate the implementation of research programs focused on local/regional/national objectives ? Do private institutions get Government encouragement for the same? Forget everything else, if the indigenous Bharat NCAP was such a priority, why was it not launched by now?

[dust-n-bones]

Originally Posted by Jeroen

I am going to extremely blunt, but I would not trust any Chinese further than I can throw him or her. They are out there to capture everything and anything. They just work along a timeline and strategy almost none of us can imagine. They are not hampered by elections, democracy and so on.

So it is strategically important for all countries to reduce reliance on China, for everything they do. At least get it back to a level where there is a healthy balance in trade and other interest on a more or less equal footing and fair basis.

The biggest mistake anybody or any nation can make is thinking China investments will help them out. Yes, it might mean you get consumer access to cheaper, good quality products. But in the end you are just making a pact with the devil. I find it is extremely naive from any officials to think positive about China.

The ruthlessness you talk about is not specific to the Chinese. When Amazon entered India, there were plenty of home grown e-com players in India. Now, everyone of them is dead in the $100b market. The only remaining 'Indian' player is Flipkart, which is owned by Walmart.


BYD operates in an industry worth < $1b in India, miniscule local manufacturing, where there is no 'national security' interest involved. What India has though is a big potential market.

This is the same situation Chinese used to their advantage to build local technology and manufacturing across industries.

In India, by contrast, we are terrified of our shadows, and will end up being bit players with screw driver technology.

What we need is a strong, transparent monopoly regulator to check Amazon and BYD. What we end up with this fear mongering is lost opportunities, bad products and an unaccountable government.

[sandeepmdas]

Until 2004, India and China were economically truly "Bhai Bhai." In 2003, China's leadership changed with the appointment of Hu Jintao, while in 2004, India elected Manmohan Singh as its leader. Both leaders were distinguished and stylish, with a cricket analogy comparing Hu to the aggressive and dominant batting styles of Sachin Tendulkar and Virender Sehwag, whereas Manmohan Singh's approach was likened to the steadiness of VVS Laxman.

It's important to note that the comparison to VVS Laxman is not meant to criticize him, as he played exceptionally well and achieved a long and chanceless innings. However, the analogy suggests that the GDP paths began to diverge around that time by an astounding 45 degrees. Now we have a Bada Bhai in the picture.

The reference to "sticky wicket" alludes to the challenging and unpredictable conditions India faced during Manmohan Singh's tenure. India's bureaucratic and legal system made it susceptible to setbacks, where even a single person with a stay order from the high court could halt a billion-dollar project. Additionally, unfamiliar tax codes caused companies to take legal actions in European Arbitrary courts, creating difficulties for India.

Around 2013-2014, India had Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi as rival leaders, both of whom started their terms by blaming their predecessors for various issues. Despite this, there was little evidence to suggest that they performed significantly better as you can see. Xi's leadership led to a tense and unyielding standoff between many nations also.

The outcome of this situation is uncertain, and the focus should be on allowing BYD to continue its business in India, as it may help correct the problematic GDP trajectory. By doing so, India may address the challenges represented by the "45-degree asking rate" and put up a thrilling chase. However, it's essential to enlighten Indian citizens that BYD is a Chinese company, enabling them to make informed decisions in line with the principles of democracy.

Originally Posted by dust-n-bones

When Amazon entered India, there were plenty of home grown e-com players in India. Now, everyone of them is dead in the $100b market. The only remaining 'Indian' player is Flipkart, which is owned by Walmart.

The reason was customer service. With almost all other companies (Rediff, SnapDeal and there was even eBay) shopping was almost like buying lottery tickets. I still have a 2 GB DRAM module that never worked and a bright yellow shirt (size 40) that I never ordered. My order was for 6 microfiber towels for my car. Both from Rediff.

[spadival]

Originally Posted by anandhsub

The right comparison would be a Russian automaker. Do you think Europe would be fine with that?

They are more than ok with Russian oil powering their ICE cars (albeit Russian oil refined by India & on sold for a hefty profit. )