[RahulNagaraj]

According to media reports, China is now the world's largest car market and has managed to adopt electric cars faster than anyone anticipated.

Reports state that 80 per cent of electric cars sold in China last year were from domestic carmakers. This rapid rise of domestic automakers in China is fueled by subsidies offered by local governments in cities where the carmakers have their factories. The rise is so prominent that China today manufactures and sells most of the world's electric cars. China also leads the way in making electric motors and refining the chemicals used in lithium-ion batteries.



In terms of domestic EV sales, reports state that electric cars accounted for almost a quarter of the car market last year, with expectations of them being over a third this year. In comparison, EVs in the USA account for less than 6%.

BYD, which overtook Volkswagen to become China's best-selling car brand, now holds 10.3% of the total market share, up from 2.1% four years ago. Tesla, which sells only electric cars, has also faced a drop in sales growth, prompting the American carmaker to cut prices.

Other international carmakers have also lost out in terms of sales and market share in China. This includes the likes of Ford & Hyundai. General Motors is another brand which has also lost out, however, they have fared better than other international automakers because of its 44% stake in Wuling.

Source: NewYorkTimes

Link to Team-BHP news

[PreludeSH]

Great for China. They are big and fast in everything they are doing. Our country doesnt even dream or gives up, thinking about self imposed restrictions, bureaucracy and system

[M35]

Yup. Every single Taxi is electric, so are the buses (Public transport). The number of Teslas are like Maruti swifts here (Shenzhen) and the every single domestic car maker has great looking and sophisticated electric line-up, lead by the Build Your Dreams (BYD). The sub-way/metro (multi-lines) is robust and very well connected; very affordable too. The air quality amazing, so is the visibility. There are at least 3 Apple stores (yes, not referring to the re-sellers) within 10-15 km where I live. I can go on and on. No comparison at all!

[shortbread]

Off topic

Oil price forecasters are who have been predicting $100+ oil since the start of the year due to increased china activity have been dumbfounded by the flat oil demand from the people's republic in the recent months! The country has opened up but they cannot see a big uptick in crude imports. Which begs the questions, if a quarter of new car sales in china is electric, wouldn't that affect oil demand? For some reason none of the oil analysts/traders ever discuss this question!

[SN88]

China is league's ahead in execution and it is well thought off. There is simply no comparison. What I know is we in India also have the capacity and the potential but we make more noise than actual work.

Our govt's (past and present) invests too much time and money in making things more complicated for everyone - manufacturers, distrubuters and consumers when it should be the other way around. The sole agenda is to win elections and that is all.

[SedateGuy]

Originally Posted by SN88

Our govt's (past and present) invests too much time and money in making things more complicated for everyone - manufacturers, distrubuters and consumers when it should be the other way around. The sole agenda is to win elections and that is all.

China took many unpopular decisions to get where they are because the ruling party had no elections to win.

[DonHyd]

Originally Posted by SedateGuy

China took many unpopular decisions to get where they are because the ruling party had no elections to win.

And if as a citizen, I have to choose between freedom(democracy) and development, i will choose development 10 out of 10 times.

[Small Bot]

Originally Posted by DonHyd

And if as a citizen, I have to choose between freedom(democracy) and development, i will choose development 10 out of 10 times.

That's off-topic, though a disturbing and dystopian line of thought, so I'll not go down that route.

I'm more interested in how long this wave of EVs can last in China, and i have quite a few questions for which I'll wait for answers.

The subsidies for EVs are not going to last forever, what happens to manufacturers and buyers when they stop? Would that create a tilt back to fossil fuels or would consumers be trapped with EVs?

China seems to have been reducing production of electricity from fossil fuels and trying out other greener sources of electricity, but what if a natural disaster like the recent drought screws up that equation? Would they not prioritise the supply of electricity to households rather than to charging stations? In fact, I think that also happened once quite recently.

And finally, all that lithium is not unlimited or replenishable. So where do we go after that?

I'm not saying that EVs are not the near future, as things seem to be progressing in that direction. But there are several teething issues which probably have no direct answers right now.

[DarthVeda]

Originally Posted by Small Bot

The subsidies for EVs are not going to last forever, what happens to manufacturers and buyers when they stop? Would that create a tilt back to fossil fuels or would consumers be trapped with EVs?

Did you know oil companies receive tons and tons of subsidies all over the world, what happens when they stop?

China seems to have been reducing production of electricity from fossil fuels and trying out other greener sources of electricity, but what if a natural disaster like the recent drought screws up that equation? Would they not prioritise the supply of electricity to households rather than to charging stations? In fact, I think that also happened once quite recently.

We are talking about apocalypse? btw, a simple 2kw solar panel is good enough for charging cars at home.

And finally, all that lithium is not unlimited or replenishable. So where do we go after that?

Sodium Ion, CATL already announced production batteries, they don't need lithium at all. There are new chemistries being worked upon.

I'm not saying that EVs are not the near future, as things seem to be progressing in that direction. But there are several teething issues which probably have no direct answers right now.

I am sure this is valid for anything new, I am guessing early humans said the same about growing food in farm too, when they were in favour of hunting and scavenging. What is there is too much rain, no rain, what if animals come to farm and destroy everything?

[tushar_j]

Looking ahead, in about a decade or two, China will be dealing with a large volume of scrapped EVs as vehicles reach their registration expiry date, as well as new battery tech coming in. It will be interesting to see how the EV recycling part is handled. Also, it will answer another question - is it more eco-friendly/economical to recycle EVs compared to ICE vehicles?

[flashgo]

Originally Posted by shortbread

Off topic

Oil price forecasters are who have been predicting $100+ oil since the start of the year due to increased china activity have been dumbfounded by the flat oil demand from the people's republic in the recent months! The country has opened up but they cannot see a big uptick in crude imports. Which begs the questions, if a quarter of new car sales in china is electric, wouldn't that affect oil demand? For some reason none of the oil analysts/traders ever discuss this question!

It absolutely does. this transition is more because of the global politics and less because of the environmental concern. China, like us is heavily dependent on the oil imports for the energy needs. with all the trouble that they have with USA and south China sea, it is no wonder they took this route. Also, USA was not happy with China having access to a great amount of Lithium resources (read more on cobalt mining in Africa. it is mostly attributed to Chinese companies). I believe, it could be one of the reasons why USA was supporting development of other battery tech. But China somehow cracked it on time. But, I wonder how green are the cars though. they are still the largest producers of thermal electricity by coal. I wonder how they can transition to green energy on that massive scale.

[avishar]

Originally Posted by Small Bot

That's off-topic, though a disturbing and dystopian line of thought, so I'll not go down that route.

I'm more interested in how long this wave of EVs can last in China, and i have quite a few questions for which I'll wait for answers.

The subsidies for EVs are not going to last forever, what happens to manufacturers and buyers when they stop? Would that create a tilt back to fossil fuels or would consumers be trapped with EVs?

Those subsidies have already stopped. As of Jan 1st, 2023 many national level subsidies ended and EV sales has remained strong. Their subsidies started long back, in 2010 and has tapered since.

A lot of commentary surrounding China and their progress is accompanied by plenty of "Why can't we do that?". We can't do that because if we did it would go against the ethos and the ethics of this country's governing structures.

In China it is not merely a question of distributing subsidies but it is accompanied by ruthless targets and decentralization of planning. There are not only country-level incentives, but state-level and city-level ones. And each of these bodies all work like corporate management teams with an eye on return-on investment and achievements. The line between public and private companies are a blur in China, the centre of gravity for each them floats somewhere outside these companies. This is not so in India where private companies do everything in their grasp to keep their decision making out of government's reach, basically our entire thesis of progress is based on how governance can be "minimum".

The Chinese government literally picks companies, hands them land and money and looks for results. There is no L1, competitive bidding stuff.

For example in China, the city of Shenzhen is invested in the progress of its economy. As a result it nurtures its own companies. They have the freedom to set their own visions.

Lets say BMC (Bombay) wakes up one day and says we want to leaders in Li-Ion batteries. In China, a body like BMC can invest in startups, create a company called BMC Batteries Limited, acquire land for that company and hand it over for free. Then they can sanction say $1 billion as subsidies, have the authorities to tweak tax laws, import laws and basically say, lets get going. It can overnight create their own PLI policy or designate areas to be Free-trade-zone etc. They can tweak their labour-laws etc, open up banks to provide cheap-capital and so on. This freedom in rule-making extends to states too, and the central government can come up with their own overaching policies.

This BMC Batteries will not function like an India PSU, they function like a very efficient private company. This fictious city can also proclaim that all EV buses acquired by their public transport company needs to have BMC Batteries. No questions asked. This is how China builds scale and in speed.

Shenzhen independently can also raised money for its investments. Also as an example look at the names of many CHinese companies, it has the city name in it. Shanghai Auto, Beijing, Changan etc.

It is not that corruption does not happen in China. The central government has their own "Big Fund", which is like a Chinese government version of Softbank's Vision Fund, for example. They disburse vast sums of money to companies to fund research and development. And like Softbank, they have been under increasing scrutiny due to some dubious investments that they have made, but a lot of it has also helped. They are known as Government Guidance Funds and there are seperate funds investing in semiconductors, batteries, quantum computers etc.


State-owned auto companies like BAIC, SAIC, Changan and the lithe-ness in which they have created EV-brandnames is amazing. Some of them move as fast as startups. They have the freedom to get into partnerships, invest abroad, sell stake etc with minimum turnaround times in decision making. As an example look at Hongqi. They took something akin to the "Ambassador" brand in India and turned into premium EV brand that is making inroads in Europe.

What also helps is that the cities, provinces and the centre are not pulling in different directions. There is a pyramid structure in what they want to achieve. If the Chinese government's mandate is to say they want to reach 100% self-suffiency in xyz technology, the rest of the country (public & private) aim to work under those targets.

To me how they function is fascinating to study but more at an arms-length distance. None of this stuff will work in India, and not that China is perfect. But a lot of what they do is so weird and interesting, it is a great read.

[alisajid]

I think Chinese are going too quick on it. EVss, are infrastructure dependent to the point that whole eco system is dependent on few wires, I mean the grid.

In case of a natural disaster or conflict, if one looses grid masses will loose mobility as well, that is a very dangerous scenario for individuals and community even for a small city.

That is why railways lines at borders are not electrified and there is always a fleet of diesel electric locomotives on stand by in most countries, even steam locomotion was put in reserve for many decades after it became obsolete. The reason was simple, mobility cannot be infrastructure dependent specially as vulnerable as grid infra.

Just imagine a grid failing and people loosing ability to move in a million plus city, with limited resources it would be chaos. The Evs will clean up city air but are still not pollution free, as many have pointed out energy sources are still toxic except solar power.

The biggest challenge yet to be solved for going electric is energy storage at grid and production level. Fossil fuels can store energy for 15 days on a scale of as big a country as India and can be moved, hidden.

Even from a city point of view there has to be reserve of energy always. If we just have mobility for lets say 8 hours in a calamity thats a disaster and sure death for millions.

Until we get the know how to store energy at substation level with reserves stretching up to at least 5 days, no sane govt will act quick in moving away from energy flexible tech.

India is doing good at maintaining a reserved pace in electrification, it should be done but we need to watch out for energy storage solutions and other techs offering this option as well. Interestingly our road Transport minister refers to alternate fuels as well besides electrification, that is forward thinking.

I have seen earth quake hit city and the horrific damage done to infrastructure by it, simply a 10 cc functioning motor with 2 wheels is life saving in those circumstances...

[SN88]

Originally Posted by avishar

To me how they function is fascinating to study but more at an arms-length distance. None of this stuff will work in India, and not that China is perfect. But a lot of what they do is so weird and interesting, it is a great read.

To me it is plain magic!! The way they pulls things off, their infrastructure development pace, their strategies and implementation, the way they handle global diplomatic standoff's, adoption of newer tech etc are nothing short of magic especially if you look at their size and populace!! Phew

[how_you_doing]

Originally Posted by SN88

To me it is plain magic!! The way they pulls things off, their infrastructure development pace, their strategies and implementation, the way they handle global diplomatic standoff's, adoption of newer tech etc are nothing short of magic especially if you look at their size and populace!! Phew

It helps to have 1 competent government (they did make some blunders) for decades (technically 75 years). China works like a big company (say Amazon, Walmart, Shell, etc.) with a board of directors, CEO, and chain of command. They have a vision and mission statement. Everyone is working towards that vision and mission. The country works with the efficiency of such big companies without bureaucracy, red tape, foreign government involvement, etc.

India can replicate the same growth as China. We just need less government and around 10 Tata, Ambani, and Adani. Give them full freedom like what Japan, South Korea, and China did and they will build the country.