[supermax]

Originally Posted by On4Wheels

Unless the regulators bring law to enforce the long term battery warranty, I think, EV batteries also may follow this trend. I learned that California is trying to bring the legislation to ensure BEVs maintain 80% of their certified test-cycle range for 15 years or 150,000 miles, while fuel-cell models maintain at least 90% output power after 4,000 hours of operation. Moreover, it is encouraging to see companies coming forward with 10 year battery warranty. At the same time, I find, the public statements by companies are nothing more than a pep talk as it does not give any legal assurance to the customers.

Also, if we have better Lithium-ion battery technology in future, the cost of the battery may not come down. Rather, I expect, we may get enhanced range.

Nice points. Yes, unless regulatory requirements come into play, companies will not offer carrots in the form of warranties for longer than strictly necessary to hook their customers. Regarding your second point, if the range increases, cost indirectly comes down, as one can scale back on the number of cells and still make the range that users currently are getting, resulting in a lighter and more inexpensive car. The lightness will help further increase the range, so yes, I'm indeed more optimistic than many EV cultists give me credit for. What I'm not prepared to do is ignore numbers as they stand today, and simply chug the coolaid and sing the kumbaya. EVs today only make sense for people within a narrow band; for the overwhelming majority of people who today drive cars or are thinking about buying their first ever car, an EV still won't make economic sense. Many are falling for the hype and buying it, not realizing that they will never recover their higher cost of acquisition with the amount of driving they do, but that's a whole different story!

[himanshubm]

I guess we are looking at replacing our usual mass -market EVs every 8 years (that's when the warranties on most of the batteries will expire). May work well for the afficionados but not for the rest of us who hold on to their vehicles longer. I have a 11 year old Honda City and I think I spend no more than 10,000 rupees on maintenance every year despite 1,25,000 kms on the odometer. Drove a Zen for close to 10 years and 100,000 kms before this and my dad's maruti 800 lasted 17 years and 2,50,000 kms before we sold it off to someone who wanted his kid to learn driving on a used car.

[Jeroen]

Originally Posted by himanshubm

I guess we are looking at replacing our usual mass -market EVs every 8 years (that's when the warranties on most of the batteries will expire). May work well for the afficionados but not for the rest of us who hold on to their vehicles longer. I have a 11 year old Honda City and I think I spend no more than 10,000 rupees on maintenance every year despite 1,25,000 kms on the odometer. Drove a Zen for close to 10 years and 100,000 kms before this and my dad's maruti 800 lasted 17 years and 2,50,000 kms before we sold it off to someone who wanted his kid to learn driving on a used car.

Well, with that sort of annual mileage you are good to go with many current EVs. Also, with an EV all that happens is that over a period of very long time the range gets less. But it still functions perfectly well.

We are talking in this thread about the rare occurrence of having to replace the battery. Soon that will be as rare as having to replace your engine and gearbox. Probably at a similar price point too.

Jeroen