[The Rationalist]

People can believe anything! But the writing is on the wall. For those who have no pre conceived notions, the link below may help.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesmo...h=66c910ce12fa

[volkman10]

Hybrid Passenger Vehicle Sales Analysis - Highlights

- The year 2022 saw the highest-ever sales of hybrid vehicles, with 19,556 units sold

- Toyota commands 57% of the Indian strong-hybrid market share, followed by Maruti with 35% and Honda with 7%

- The Toyota Hyryder Hybrid (9,361) is the best-selling product, followed by the Maruti Grand Vitara Hybrid (6,915)

With the entry of the Honda City Hybrid (May 2022), Toyota Hyryder (Sep 2022), and Maruti Grand Vitara Hybrid (Sep 2022), the market size of strong hybrids reached 19,556 units. This translated into a 0.5% market share in the passenger vehicle segment. Strong-hybrid technology is in the early stages of adoption in India but looks promising as a replacement for diesel engines due to the high real-world fuel efficiency of strong-hybrid products as reported by end customers. As a result, strong-hybrid technology will become more mainstream in the coming years.

2013 - Toyota Camry hybrid (CKD)



In August 2013, Toyota launched a completely-knocked-down (CKD) production version of the hybrid Camry in India with a competitive price tag of ₹29.5 lakh. Excise duty was also on the lower side (14%) for hybrid vehicles then. The Camry hybrid did well in the competitive segment until 2016. In 2017, the tax rate was raised to 43% under the new GST regime, causing prices to rise by 16% while sales volume fell.

In 2019, Toyota launched the tenth generation of Camry only in a hybrid version at ₹36.95 lakh with a lot more features, and sales gained traction afterward.

2016 - Honda Accord Hybrid (CBU)

Attachment 2412575

In 2016, the 9th generation Accord made a comeback in India in fully imported hybrid form, priced at ₹ 37 lakh. There weren’t many takers for such an expensive sedan, and Honda had to discontinue the Accord forever in 2017.

2020 - Toyota Vellfire Hybrid (CBU)

The official launch of the Toyota Vellfire happened in February 2020, however, Toyota started wholesale of imported units in 2019. It was launched at ₹79.5 lakh in 2020, and in 2022, it costs ₹ 94.5 lakh ex-showroom. Sales have been pretty good ever since; even the Mercedes-Benz V-Class, launched around the same time, has already been discontinued. That says a lot about how great Vellfire is as a luxury palace on wheels. Lexus, Toyota's luxury arm, will soon bring its own iteration of the Vellfire, known as LM, already shown at the 2023 Auto Expo, taking luxury to the next level.

2022 Analysis

T

oyota Hyryder (9,361) is the best-selling strong-hybrid product, followed by Maruti Grand Vitara (6,915)

Honda City was available with three different engine options in 2022

Honda City diesel will be phased out in the BS6 RDE phase from 1st April 2023

Despite its high price, the Toyota Vellfire is selling pretty well due to its luxurious interior offering

Strong-hybrid vehicles now contribute 7% of Toyota’s fuel mix

In the case of Honda, despite only having one variant option, it reached 1.5%.

In the case of Maruti, it's still low at 0.4%

Maruti is cheaper than Toyota when it comes to mild-hybrid variants. Hence, Maruti delivers more value and has a wider reach as well. However, for the strong hybrid version, Toyota offers three variants, thus taking the entry price even lower. Moreover, Maruti has only the top two variants and is priced 50,000 more than Toyota for similar specs and a lower warranty, thus delivering less value, and the Toyota badge certainly is considered more premium than Maruti’s (look at the increasing sales of the Toyota Vellfire).

Thus, Toyota is able to sell more strong hybrids, which is their technology fitted in Maruti’s product, due to their ongoing partnership.

Link

[AulusGabinius]

Originally Posted by The Rationalist

People can believe anything! But the writing is on the wall. For those who have no pre conceived notions, the link below may help.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesmo...h=66c910ce12fa

Personally, hydrogen tech is extremely underdeveloped compared to lithium battery tech, so I would probably say that it is too early to say. Let's not count out hydrogen from biogas just yet, and from better production methods than the steam reforming method. In any case, Porsche is already nearly ready with an H2 combustion car.

https://newsroom.porsche.com/en/2022...ife-29401.html

But a recent Joe Rogan video with Peter Zeihan, and a deeper analysis in his book The End of the World is Just the Beginning, again, I'm not confident at all that electricity will stay lower than hydrocarbon fuels. It's possible that charging points linked to home meters may just be replaced by a separate electricity meter in the near future, especially for fast-charging. The video and the book are below:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_KFxoNiT51Y

https://www.amazon.in/End-World-Just-Beginning-Globalization/dp/006323047X/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=the+end+of+the+world+is+just+t he+beginning&qid=1675142213&sr=8-1

[naj]

Originally Posted by shortbread

Hybrids are only a stop gap measure before the inevitable rise of EVs.

Hello,
Possibly so, as the EV range for current cars is limited for intercity runs and charging infra is not yet fully developed.
The transition could be longer if sufficient infra does not get developed too soon making the hybrids one of the best options and prevent cars getting stranded anywhere. In fact the hybrids make more sense in current scenarios where customers have one car in the family.
Thanks - Naj

[Sumedik]

Originally Posted by naj

In fact the hybrids make more sense in current scenarios where customers have one car in the family.

My take on this matter considering the fact that the pricing of strong hybrids and BEV is "similar" is that if the "single car" is used mostly for in city trips, then the choice should be BEVs, considering the lower running cost as compared to strong hybrids.

If the single car is mostly used for highway trips (rare scenario), then strong hybrids do not make sense since they do not lower running costs in highway drives to justify the much higher procurement cost.

This leaves a very small niche of those people who drive mostly in city and do not want ANY mid route charging related inconvenience. They would want strong hybrids. Let's keep in mind that the once in a while highway driving convenience comes at higher in city running cost.

I would prefer to plan my highway trips to accommodate mid route charging in a BEV rather than use a strong hybrid.

[volkman10]

EV and Hybrid car sales - Q1 2023

Strong-hybrid EV (HEV) sales overtook battery EV (BEV) sales in two successive quarters due to the onslaught of the new range of strong-hybrid technology based products from Toyota and Maruti. Combined sales of HEV and BEV reached 4.3% of the Indian passenger vehicle market in Q1 2023, with each contributing 2.2% and 2.1%, respectively.


BEV sales too touched a new level of 21,109 units in Q1 2023, due to the introduction of new products from Tata, Mahindra, Citroen, and BYD.


- BEV and strong-hybrid EV sales reached an all-time high level of 21,109 and 22,389 units, respectively, in Q1 2023.

- Combined sales of strong-hybrid EVs and BEVs reached 4.3% of the Indian passenger vehicle market.

- Tata and Toyota continue to dominate the BEV and strong-hybrid EV markets with 73% and 83%, respectively.

- Toyota Innova Hycross is the best-selling strong-hybrid EV in Q1 2023.












Link

[volkman10]

Hybrids set gain momentum even in US.

Hybrid sales in the US expected to triple by 2028.

Industry forecasts suggest that hybrids have a bright future ahead as some buyers remain reluctant to EVs.

According to S&P Global Mobility, hybrid sales in the US are expected to triple over the next five years. More specifically, the firm predicts a 24% share for hybrids, 37% for battery electrics, and 40% for combustion and mild-hybrid offerings by 2028. For comparison, the forecast for 2023 predicts a 7% share for hybrids, a 9% share for EVs, and more than 80% for the still-dominant ICE.

Surveys suggest that the expensive cost of purchase, limited range, long charging times, and limited charging network are still the top reasons that buyers steer away from fully electric models. Despite the major improvements in most of those areas over the last few years, the reluctance of some buyers explains the slower-than-expected EV uptake.

There are currently more than 60 hybrid models on sale in the US. Out of those, Toyota and Lexus have the lion’s share with 18 hybrids, Hyundai and Kia have 7, Ford and Lincoln have 6, Stellantis has 3 while General Motors is expecting to launch its first one later this year. Despite the numerous hybrid options, availability in US dealerships is quite limited due to the high demand.

Ford recently announced it wants to quadruple its hybrid sales by 2028 despite its earlier focus on EVs. Stellantis is also supportive of hybrids for the future, with electrified variants currently accounting for 36% of the Jeep Wrangler sales and 19% of the Chrysler Pacifica sales. On the contrary, General Motors remains committed to having an EV-only lineup by 2030 showing little interest in hybrids

Toyota which was criticized for the slower transition to EVs despite being a pioneer and a global leader in hybrid technology will be the first to capitalize on this hybrid-loving trend.


Link

[SKC-auto]

Originally Posted by volkman10

Toyota which was criticized for the slower transition to EVs despite being a pioneer and a global leader in hybrid technology will be the first to capitalize on this hybrid-loving trend.

1. It is very hard even for analysts to predict sales during a disruption, if they could have predicted successfully we would have avoided Nokia, Blockbuster and Kodak.

2. If we call tripling sales as hybrid loving trend, the same analysts predicted quadrupling of EVs in the same period. Remember that hybrids are available in the market for many years before Nissan Leaf came to market.

3. Toyota may be gaining sales in hybrids, but also losing sales in pure ICE cars, also if their current hesitation for EVs continue, they will not be a key player in 37% market share which EVs have in 5 years according to the above prediction.

Edit: Just wanted to understand, are you part of team bhp reporting team? Or just reporting as part of your personal interest? I have no issues if it's your personal interest and time, otherwise it is lot of bias against EVs in your reporting.

[Fiero]

Like with many other things in the automotive world, the government seems to have missed the bus in promoting strong hybrids. As of today, strong hybrids (more so than EVs) ought to have been the focus of tax cuts and what not. In the real world, a Honda City HEV or Toyota Hyryder achieve the same if not better CO2 emissions than a Tata Nexon EV. Granted they do not clean up city pollution like EVs, but they also do not require the creation of humungous additional electricity infrastructure to function. As a transitional technology up to 2030-2035, it should have ideally been be strong hybrids ruling the roost. The additional cost also gets largely offset over the life of a vehicle.

[ferrarirules]

Originally Posted by Fiero

In the real world, a Honda City HEV or Toyota Hyryder achieve the same if not better CO2 emissions than a Tata Nexon EV. Granted they do not clean up city pollution like EVs

No hybrids don't pollute equal to or lesser than EV.
Please go through the MIT article on the topic - link

Only part of the EV lifecycle, EVs produce more CO2 is battery production but then they have not accounted for CO2 produced while petrol production. They have mentioned that a EV cars get cleaner as the grid gets cleaner but the same is not possible with hybrid cars

Also, please remember EV batteries are recyclable to make new batteries. Same is not true for petrol or diesel.

[volkman10]

Ford CEO says "Nah" To Electric Mustang Coupe, "Yeah" to Hybrid.

Link

[Fiero]

Originally Posted by ferrarirules

No hybrids don't pollute equal to or lesser than EV.
Please go through the MIT article on the topic - link

Only part of the EV lifecycle, EVs produce more CO2 is battery production but then they have not accounted for CO2 produced while petrol production. They have mentioned that a EV cars get cleaner as the grid gets cleaner but the same is not possible with hybrid cars

Also, please remember EV batteries are recyclable to make new batteries. Same is not true for petrol or diesel.

The MIT article does not reflect the streets of India, or the kind of cars we drive. If we limit the analysis to CO2 emitted during operation of the vehicle, then the following arises:
1. In energy terms, India has only 12-14% renewable energy penetration in the grid. This means that for every kWh we use from the grid, we emit 85+grams of CO2, along with NOx, SOx, etc. which we will not get into. This info is available on the website of the Central Electricity Authority.
2. A typical Nexon, say, in the city gets 250-300 km on its 40 kWh battery. This means 6.25-7.5 km/kWh or 113-136 g CO2/km. This is equal a petrol car which gives 17-20kmpl, which hybrids are easily able to match.
3. On the highway, take this example found on YouTube of an Ioniq 5:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RqnVHv7x_9w

. This car consumed 187.34kWh for travelling 1055 highway kms, which translates to 151 grams of CO2 emissions / kilometer. This is equivalent to a petrol car with a mileage of 15.3 kmpl or a diesel car with a mileage of 17.6 kmpl. Not very impressive, is it?
4. In India, the grid will still take some more years to have a meaningful renewable energy mix that significantly benefits EVs. The additional resources, i.e. (land, renewable energy power plants, transmission lines, EV charging stations everywhere, proper battery recycling systems) required for EV transition is enormous to say the least. Not easy at all. We have to move on to EVs, but we must not have a one-track mind about it.
5. Different applications require different solutions. Intra-city taxis and small CVs running around in the city need to be converted to EVs asap - this is the best use case for EVs at the moment. For inter-city taxis, this is probably not even feasible at the moment. Where the world is struggling is large long-haul commercial vehicles - this is clean energy tech is required the most, but we are simply not there yet.

[ferrarirules]

Originally Posted by Fiero

1. In energy terms, India has only 12-14% renewable energy penetration in the grid. This means that for every kWh we use from the grid, we emit 85+grams of CO2, along with NOx, SOx, etc. which we will not get into. This info is available on the website of the Central Electricity Authority.

Which central electricity authority are you talking about. The power ministry website showing data from 31-05-2023 states renewable electricity share is 41.6%. Also, the plant load factor for coal plants is 66% which means they are being used to 66% of installed capacity. Please adjust your calculations accordingly. Please the link below

Link

Majority of the user use the car in cities and EVs perform exceedingly well in the setup.

Also, EVs are not polluting the cities where you and I live.

The same discussion has happened multiple times on this forum.

[Fiero]

Originally Posted by ferrarirules

Which central electricity authority are you talking about. The power ministry website showing data from 31-05-2023 states renewable electricity share is 41.6%. Also, the plant load factor for coal plants is 66% which means they are being used to 66% of installed capacity. Please adjust your calculations accordingly. Please the link below

Link

Majority of the user use the car in cities and EVs perform exceedingly well in the setup.

Also, EVs are not polluting the cities where you and I live.

The same discussion has happened multiple times on this forum.

There is a difference between installed capacity (which is what you are quoting), and actual MUs generated and sent to the grid. In energy terms over the course of a year, a 100 MW wind project generates only 22-25MWh x 365 equivalent of energy.

Here you can see India's renewable energy contribution pegged at 12.3%: https://www.livemint.com/news/india/...179203975.html, and here you can see the estimated emissions intensity per kWh as 790grams/kWh:https://energy.economictimes.indiati...tters/99062580. Ok, its lower than my earlier estimate of 850grams/kWh - so that's an 8% adjustment, but still, hybrids would still beat them in most cases in terms of overall CO2 emissions as of today. In 5 years, the story may be different, but then, the hybrids on offer may be too.

The facts and figures are quite clear - people can do their own calculations basis the real world efficiency they get.

Its largely displacement of pollution right now, which I'm not against by the way.

I am also not against EVs in any way. For high mileage intra-city use in our congested cities, EVs are probably the best bet. It doesn't mean they are a universally better for every application as of today.

[ferrarirules]

Originally Posted by Fiero

.

Here you can see India's renewable energy contribution pegged at 12.3%: https://www.livemint.com/news/india/...179203975.html, and here you can see the estimated emissions intensity per kWh as 790grams/kWh:https://energy.economictimes.indiati...tters/99062580

Thanks for the clarification. Based on the numbers that you have provided, per km CO2 emissions of EV is 112 gms to 131 gms. And a hybrid car produces between 120 to 140 per km CO2 emissions.

The numbers for EV can go to even zero if you have a solar implementation in your home or society. Also as the grid percentage of renewables increases this will come down. The same is not possible for ICE cars.

I am not saying that you are against EVs, I am just sharing my opinion