[soarersc300]

Originally Posted by EV NXT

Lack of data works both ways. We may not have too much data but expecting batteries to last beyond 8 years when there is no
data is an optimistic stand and could land buyers of EV’s in trouble.

Attachment 2360129

Its still early days for EV’s and battery tech but its better to make calculations based on the little data available now rather than forecast what it could be when technology changes.

https://www.evconnect.com/blog/how-l...r-battery-last

Correct. There is no data so that is why I am asking what is the basis of any of the claims you are making? Some of them - replacing battery after 8 years - are outlandish to say the least. How many BEVs are there in the world which are more than 8 years old? What percentage of these used BEVs needed battery replacement? What is the source of all these falsehoods being spread on this forum?

I have already provided links where used BEVs, some even more than 6 years old are listed. Did you check the prices listed? Did you check the prices of those models when they were new? Did you calculate depreciation and compare the same with similarly priced ICEs for same time period?

Let's stick to facts and real world data of actual used BEVs and actual instances of battery pack replacements (if any) of BEVs because if we start debating on "blogs" and not data then we will be doing great disservice to this valuable forum.

[EV NXT]

Originally Posted by soarersc300

Correct. There is no data so that is why I am asking what is the basis of any of the claims you are making? Some of them - replacing battery after 8 years - are outlandish to say the least. How many BEVs are there in the world which are more than 8 years old?

That is exactly my question to you too. When there is no data of BEV’s in the world that have lasted more than 8 years how do you project a life of 10 years or more? Isn't that guess work too?

And we haven’t even got to the cost of drive train and motor repairs which may also be just a replacement given that there will not be too many that will know how to repair them. This would be a prohibitively expensive too.

Given current data availability, forecasting battery life beyond 8 years for a Tata Nexon, Mahindra XUV 400 or even Hyundai Kona at this point is a bit too optimistic. Forget Tesla, they arent even being sold in India as of now.

[flanker]

Originally Posted by EV NXT

Lack of data works both ways. We may not have too much data but expecting batteries to last beyond 8 years when there is no
data is an optimistic stand and could land buyers of EV’s in trouble.

There is data for ZS EV, Nexon EV, Kona in India.

I have collected battery degradation data from many ZS EVs on different mileage in India. Some of these tracked cars have reached above 60k KM. There also lot of degradation data on ZS EV in UK as well.

The time dependent degradation is very less if battery is kept at low SOC. The distance based reported degradation by the BMS is a bit high on the ZS EV and it slows down after it reaches around 92 to 93% capacity. Beyond this the total available capacity hasn't shown much change in even the high mileage cars.

The assertion that batteries become unusable after 8 years is not correct. A car which has very low mileage and is not parked at 100% will not have more than 8 to 10% deg in 8 years.

In even the worst scenarios the battery life will be near 2L km and after which the battery still have very high value to be used for other purposes if the second life use market starts by then.

Here is some of the data on ZS EVs from India:

[SKC-auto]

Originally Posted by EV NXT

That is exactly my question to you too. When there is no data of BEV’s in the world that have lasted more than 8 years how do you project a life of 10 years or more? Isn't that guess work too?

I think you started the claims that 8years after entire drivetrain and battery needs replacement and cost of EVs will be zero, the onus is on you to prove first.

Also, you claimed after 70% battery degradation the car is unusable, there are many first gen leaf which have their battery degraded to less than 70% and are running fine. Electric motors are the most reliable equipment, may not be the same but we used have ceiling fans used for more than 25years with zero maintenance.

Many industry leaders are suggesting battery life of 15years with current tech.

10 year old leaf, selling at good price:

[ajayc123]

Originally Posted by flanker

There is data for ZS EV, Nexon EV, Kona in India.

I have collected battery degradation data from many ZS EVs on different mileage in India. Some of these tracked cars have reached above 60k KM. There also lot of degradation data on ZS EV in UK as well.

The time dependent degradation is very less if battery is kept at low SOC. The distance based reported degradation by the BMS is a bit high on the ZS EV and it slows down after it reaches around 92 to 93% capacity. Beyond this the total available capacity hasn't shown much change in even the high mileage cars.

The assertion that batteries become unusable after 8 years is not correct. A car which has very low mileage and is not parked at 100% will not have more than 8 to 10% deg in 8 years.

Thank you. That is really useful. Based on your data, do you see any battery technology that is showing slower degradation vs others and can be expected to provide useful life of 12-15 years on moderate usage (say at 8-10k km per year).

[EV NXT]

Originally Posted by flanker

There is data for ZS EV, Nexon EV, Kona in India.

The Nexon EV has been in production only for 3 years now. The Mahindra XUV 400 isnt still out. The Hyundai Kona has been in production only for 5 years (2018 onwards). The ZS EV has been around for 3 years now.

So while we may have usage data we really don’t have time elapsed data on the life of batteries yet.
Under the circumstances it is better to err on the side of caution rather than project very long life spans that are not supported by data.

[soarersc300]

Originally Posted by EV NXT

That is exactly my question to you too. When there is no data of BEV’s in the world that have lasted more than 8 years how do you project a life of 10 years or more? Isn't that guess work too?

The fact that you make a claim "There is no data of BEVs in the world that have lasted more than 8 years" I really don't know how to respond right now, other than copy pasting my own response from a few posts ago.

Please do read about Model S launched in June 2012, that is more than 10 years ago. There are thousands of them sold and then resold as used. There is no guesswork or claim made in capitalised and boldface font. There is real world data which I have posted in two links of the prices of used BEVs.

Then there is the Roadster, given that it was the first model and produced in limited numbers it is selling at higher price today that what buyers paid more than 10 years ago. This is also not guess work but actual transactional data.

Now that you are reducing the debate to Indian market (although you place it in context of 8 year old BEVs, I wonder why sudden change in goal post) let me also clarify that neither does Tata or Mahindra manufacture the battery packs you seem to be taking trashy about. There are a handful of battery pack manufacturers like CATL, LG, Panasonic etc who supply the same packs to manufacturers like Tesla, Tata, and Mahindra. So what happens to battery pack is dependent on first, the chemistry of the battery and second, to the manufacturer of the battery pack and third, to the BEV manufacturer (primarily due to the BMS software) that will determine the life of the battery pack.

I really hope this is the last post on this topic. This is not a healthy discussion, especially for other fellow forum members reading but not actively responding, and I take my share of the blame in engaging in this discussion. Have a good day

[flanker]

Originally Posted by EV NXT

The Nexon EV has been in production only for 3 years now. The Mahindra XUV 400 isnt still out. The Hyundai Kona has been in production only for 5 years (2018 onwards). The ZS EV has been around for 3 years now.

ZS EV has been out since 2019 in UK, Thailand etc and people have collected data. The data for low and high mileage cars is available for both low and high mileage cars. Lithium ion battery degradation curves related to temperature, charge cycles, depth of discharge, load etc have subject to many many research and studies. Also as know by all this research data, the degradation is more steep at the start of life and it is very safe to project based on this available information.

It is unreasonable to project battery lifetime (8 year or otherwise) while ignoring all the data that already exists

Originally Posted by ajayc123

Thank you. That is really useful. Based on your data, do you see any battery technology that is showing slower degradation vs others and can be expected to provide useful life of 12-15 years on moderate usage (say at 8-10k km per year).

Based on all the research and data from past and current EV, 10+ years battery lifetime at 10k a year and above 70% capacity is very likely. 15 years is also possible on well maintained batteries.

The LFP batteries that we are seeing now in the cars should be even much longer life. However, long term data on LFPs doesn't exist in real world EVs

[EV NXT]

Originally Posted by soarersc300

There are a handful of battery pack manufacturers like CATL, LG, Panasonic etc who supply the same packs to manufacturers like Tesla, Tata, and Mahindra.

Looks like you haven't read this:

https://www.equitymaster.com/detail....-Watch-Out-for

Tata is among them.

[soarersc300]

Originally Posted by EV NXT

Looks like you haven't read this:

https://www.equitymaster.com/detail....-Watch-Out-for

Tata is among them.

And I was wondering I have respectfully closed the debate

So you were debating about replacing the battery pack 8 years after it is manufactured by Tata sometime in the future? I thought we were debating in 2022 about things happened in 2014. Sorry, to have misunderstood your claim. I cannot now refute your claims because you are debating about a battery pack which will be manufactured by Tata in say 2025 and will be replaced in say 2033.

[EV NXT]

Originally Posted by soarersc300

This is a very good save. Well done

Thank you. Let’s not misguide folks on the forum.

[SKC-auto]

Originally Posted by EV NXT

Thank you. Let’s not misguide folks on the forum.

Yeah..let's not misguide. Hope you accept the below are just your assumptions or apprehensions.

1. You will not have much of a resale for the car once it completes 5-6 years as battery life would be a big question mark. Estimate around 10-20% or less as 80% will have to be paid for batteries.

2. The person forking out 80% of the cost towards batteries for a 5-6 year after paying 10-20% towards resale will find it better to buy a new car.

3. This would make all EV’s as almost NIL resale value after 6 years.

4. It will be like COMPULSORILY CHANGING THE ENGINE, GEARBOX and TRANSMISSION every 8 years REGARDLESS OF USE!

5. There will be a large accumulation of old batteries leading to accumulation of toxic waste.

[starke]

Originally Posted by EV NXT

Thank you. Let’s not misguide folks on the forum.

Well, I have to agree to this statement except for all other fictitious claims.

I also do not want to counter the facts of your opinions, thanks to @SKC-auto and @soarersc300

But can't resist posting this link

https://insideevs.com/reviews/414593...leaf-10-years/

For those who want a quick summary about what the link says,

Mk1/First gen Nissan Leaf which is nearly 10 years old still holds 75%+ of its battery health and runs without any hiccups.

The advancement over battery is almost 100x times more developed when we compare it with 10 years ago when the Leaf had so inferior technology.

So after the manufacturer warranty of 8 years, you would've already saved more return than its ICE counterpart considering the fuel prices and maintenance superiority, which makes the user happy even if they sell the car at 30% of its initial value.

And coming to your toxic waste comment, this Li-ion battery can serve as ESS(Energy Storage Solution) after their End of Life as a Traction battery for long time, secondly Li. Batteries can be recycled up-to 80%+ which can be re-used for the next life of fresher cells. So these batteries technically does not die

Sorry for the long thread, last thing before I wind up

https://www.teslarati.com/nissan-lea...y-road-legend/

The robustness and simple architecture makes BEV superior in-terms of longevity, The above information is an example which proves upgrading your electric car after 8 years or more is easy as putting two AA cells two your old remote. End of the day, a Battery Operated vehicle is same working principle as a 100rs remote control toy car.

Ofcourse Battery Electric Vehicles aren't sole saviours of the planet or the best mobility tool, but let's just agree on its the best we have now until we find something better.

[aim120]

To those stating that the EV will become useless after battery drops to 70% or have poor resale value.
Lets just assume that the battery does infact drop to 70%, a Hyundai Kona or 2020 MG ZS EV would have had a range of 300kms (hypothetically), when they where brand new.

Now 8 years later after the battery life as dropped to 70%, the range drop will also be proportional. So now these two cars will have a range of 210km. Let's say you want to sell this because the range no longer suits your travel distance.

A person who is driving a IC powered car or even a Nexon EV or Tiago EV will still find the used Kona/ZS EV with 210km range a useful upgrade.

Let say after 12 years, the range further drops to 50% or 150km range, this is still useful for any of the city driving folks or current Tigor EV, E2O, Verito EV owners.

Also regarding no data on LFP packs, people have been using NMC and LFP even more aggressively in solar energy storage. Where each day the battery is discharged down to SOC 20% for NMC and SOC 10% for LFP.

Specs from Sony Fortelion, Sony data sheet says that its capacity will drop to 80% after 6000 cycles, with 100% DOD (depth of discharge) or 0% SOC (State of Charge).

But lets see what the actual independent test data done since 2016 after 3500+ cycles say.
Not if you see the dots scattered, that is because those days had rains, since these batteries are charged daily by solar.


1st / Upper image from new Murata catalogue (Murata Japan bought Sony battery business) .

2nd/ Bottom image is independent test data, battery operating since 2016.

[EV NXT]

Originally Posted by starke

Mk1/First gen Nissan Leaf which is nearly 10 years old still holds 75%+ of its battery health and runs without any hiccups.

I thought i’d call it quits but it looks like we are getting a lot of misleading information.

Here is the exact opposite to the quoted bit on the Mk1 Leaf:

The Leaf's original battery chemistry was also
prone to premature degradation which
prompted Nissan to update their batteries in
2013.

In 2016 an upgraded 30 kWh battery was
introduced although this didn't significantly
improve the degradation issue either.

You won't see many first gen Nissan Leafs with over 150,000 miles because their batteries have
degraded so much that they've become impractical for daily use.

Many first gen Leafs with 50,000 - 100.000 miles have seen a significant decrease in their battery
capacity and range simply due to degradation over time.

Source: https://enginepatrol.com/how-long-nissan-leaf-last/

It’s best that prospective buyers of EV’s read up on all information sources available and form their own opinion before taking any decision.