[CircleOfLife]

There has time and again confirmed by ZAC hollis of skoda that there are no plans to bring EV to India market until 2025.



Though recently there are some plans of getting Enyaq-IV in very limited numbers as CBU \ CKD.



Consider Jan-22 sales reported by TATA. 2092 EV



Skoda Sales Jan-22: 3234 units in total



2,892 EVs being sold by TATA vs Total 3,009 units of ICE engine sales by Skoda.

Though the balance sheet is in red but Tata is pushing aggressively with R&D investment and even India customers are willing to adopt EV cars at faster pace. Numbers speak for themselves.

TBHP thread on waiting period for Nexon EV 6 months. Link .

Reading India market and customers have not been VAG strong point. By 2025 majority Indian manufacturer would have already launched EV's & partly CNG products too. Skoda & VW will not have first mover advantage & will have to compete with other brands which by then would have substantially established their own customer base. How does this strategy of waiting until 2025 to launch EV in mass market models helps them to expand their market share? It's not that they don't have technology or products in their global portfolio or they have to substantially reengineer those for our market.

This bring to the question has Skoda & VW again got it wrong on EV launches for Indian market?

[kosjam]

Almost never is a graph for any expansion a linear straight line moving upwards at a 45 degree angle. Almost always it is a curve like the side of a bell curve, initially the curve is gentle, lazy even. It seems as if its going nowhere, just coasting around slowly, right off the 0 line. But as time passes, the curve turns northwards, slowly, but steadily climbing, gaining altitude, until suddenly, it is moving northwards blazingly fast, with everything seemingly left behind in the wake of its trail...

I could have just inserted a picture here, but sometimes words have a beauty of their own.

The Indian EV market is something like this curve. It started with the first Nexon (the first true blue realistic EV in the Indian market, not considering the Kona or the ZS at this point). Its sales started slow, people wary, only the most adventurous willing to take the plunge. There was next to no charging infrastructure and no government support. Then slowly, the pace built up, and one by one things started falling in place. Charging infra started shooting up here n there, Governments chipped in with their subsidies and freebies. And lo and behold, Tata sprang a surprise with capital investments pouring in by a bucket load. It committed to its vendors for double the number of vehicles for the next year as it has sold this year.

We, my friends, are at that inflection point, where the curve is going to leave behind its meandering ways and turn skywards and shoot for the stars, with a push from the budget (not directly but indirectly atleast) being the impetus it needs to scale ever greater heights. We will most probably see EVs going main stream by this year end, with one in each category, most probably from Tata itself.

Yes, I am a hopeful person, but I don't believe this is too far fetched a possibility. As for the tweet, its not like its something set in stone. In fact, it will be buried and forgotten by the end of the week. VAG Management sees a revolution starting in India, I doubt they will wait too long to try to cash in.

Apologies in advance if it seemed too over the top. EVs bring joy to me. :-D

[Kosfactor]

Manufacturers will bring in EVs when they are profitable to do so, currently that is not the case. VAG group isn't very profitable as is in India, if they incur losses by making EVs, they will have to shut shop and leave.

Like how long it took for VAG to come out with a Creta equivalent - Kushaq, let them take their time, just make sure its good enough.

[StarrySky]

The Enyaq is Skoda's most expensive car. If it comes in the bigger battery version, it is most likely going to be priced above all the current Skoda offerings in India (CBU or not). Its cousins ID.4 and Audi Q4 e-tron will also be priced similarly. I don't think VAG expects to sell too many of any of these in India currently.

The ID.3 will be less expensive, but still may not work in India because it will be an expensive hatchback.

As much as India is a growth market for EVs, EU/US are even bigger. The chip shortage has affected production. Currently it seems VAG is not able to produce enough to cater to the demand in EU. The waiting period for most models is 9-12 months. They are expanding production capacity in the EU and US. I think VAG may relook at India plans once they have been able to stabilize production and cater to demand in markets like EU and US.

According to the VW roadmap 2025 will see new small BEV introduced. On the battery side, I have read that VW's gigafactory that produces unified cells for high volume EVs will also be online in 2025. Maybe VW is waiting for lowering the cost of production and the cars before launching EVs in India in a big way.

[Chrome6Boy]

Originally Posted by Kosfactor

Manufacturers will bring in EVs when they are profitable to do so, currently that is not the case. VAG group isn't very profitable as is in India, if they incur losses by making EVs, they will have to shut shop and leave.

Like how long it took for VAG to come out with a Creta equivalent - Kushaq, let them take their time, just make sure its good enough.

I don't know if you can simplify it to that extent. Manufacturers make profits by gaining market share and increasing their volumes. Creta sold bucket loads because when it was released it's only competitor was a very old Duster. Now Creta and Seltos rule the sales charts and rake in huge profits for Hyundai.

Tata understands this and is being very aggressive with their EV portfolio. They want to hold on to their number one status in EV sales after adoption increases. And if the rest of the world is any indicator, EV adoption will increase exponentially in India.

If manufacturers play it safe and only bring in cars when they are profitable, they will often be too late. Kushaq sales in comparison to the Creta is a great example of that despite Kushaq being a good product.

Skoda targeted sales of 18,000 units of Kushaq over the last 6 months and achieved less than 12,000. This could also be because of semiconductor shortages and other factors. Meanwhile Creta and Seltos sold 11,500 units in December 2021 alone and had 77% market share.

Originally Posted by StarrySky

The Enyaq is Skoda's most expensive car. If it comes in the bigger battery version, it is most likely going to be priced above all the current Skoda offerings in India (CBU or not). Its cousins ID.4 and Audi Q4 e-tron will also be priced similarly. I don't think VAG expects to sell too many of any of these in India currently.

Agreed! India is honestly not a priority for most manufacturers other than Tata, Mahindra, Hyundai and Maruti. And inexplicably Mahindra and Maruti don't seem to be making many moves developing EVs for India just yet.

[Kosfactor]

Originally Posted by Chrome6Boy

Tata understands this and is being very aggressive with their EV portfolio. They want to hold on to their number one status in EV sales after adoption increases. And if the rest of the world is any indicator, EV adoption will increase exponentially in India.

If manufacturers play it safe and only bring in cars when they are profitable, they will often be too late. Kushaq sales in comparison to the Creta is a great example of that despite Kushaq being a good product.

Skoda targeted sales of 18,000 units of Kushaq over the last 6 months and achieved less than 12,000. This could also be because of semiconductor shortages and other factors. Meanwhile Creta and Seltos sold 11,500 units in December 2021 alone and had 77% market share.

Check out the history of Tata motors, how long they were able to hold on to the markets that they themselves have created - it has never ended well for Tata and it did not take much effort for competitors to wipe them clean off. As of now they are raking up losses after losses but by the time they are about to turn a corner (heard this many times) somebody else will take their carpet from underneath. Maybe this time around things could be different, never know.

Creta\Seltos Vs Kushaq was more like taking a sharp pencil to a gun fight.

[Electromotive]

Originally Posted by kosjam

We, my friends, are at that inflection point, where the curve is going to leave behind its meandering ways and turn skywards and shoot for the stars...We will most probably see EVs going main stream by this year end.

+1
It is exponential from here on the world over. BEVs are becoming the default choice for anyone getting a new vehicle in developed economies, the infrastructure is already in place and increasing. With Toyota and VAG putting all their resources behind BEVs, it will only take a couple years for BEVs to become mainstream and taxation will be changed to discourage purchase of ICE vehicles.

As for VAG in India, them being late or early doesn't matter unless they can bring in some well engineered, affordable (sub 15 Lakh) BEVs and manufacture them at scale. That's probably not going to happen.

Winning the EV war in a price sensitive country like India is all about vertical integration and cost control of the most expensive component in an EV - the battery pack. Any OEM without a proper handle on the supply chain for manufacturing the cells can't really scale. Even an EV earlybird like TaMo can't really scale its EV business because it still does not have in-house cell manufacturing capability.

I think the EV revolution in India will truly start when cell manufacturing facilities crop up - use that as the indicator for the inflection. Given the rapid evolution in battery technology and limited supply of lithium, the Indian OEMs are afraid to commit any serious capital towards setting up a cell manufacturing facility. They are playing it safe and importing the Li-ion cells for any and all BEVs made in India. Sodium ion chemistry batteries hold promise and sodium is not limited like lithium so investment is moving in that direction.

Originally Posted by Kosfactor

it has never ended well for Tata and it did not take much effort for competitors to wipe them clean off. As of now they are raking up losses after losses but by the time they are about to turn a corner (heard this many times) somebody else will take their carpet from underneath. Maybe this time around things could be different, never know.

Very true. TaMo just does not have the brand cachet and quality of fit and finish to qualify for the word 'premium'. TaMo will always lose out to MSIL on the lower end of the market and to Hyundai - Kia, and now - MG, in the premium segment. The pandemic provided TaMo a wonderful opportunity, let's see how long it lasts.

[narayanbabu]

Why can't Skoda (and even other Manufacturers) try EVs through the CBU route? Isn't this the ultimate way to gauge customer interest in their offerings? And also capture the early adopters and risk takers in the process? Or is there is a limit to number of CBU models that a Manufacturer can launch in India?

All in or nothing doesn't make sense for something we don't know how the market will respond.