[sri_tesla]

Full-electric vehicles (BEV) and plug-in hybrids (PHEV) outsold diesel vehicles for the first time in Europe in August (2021). EVs and plug-in hybrids managed to take a 21 percent market share with 151,737 deliveries, leaving behind diesel vehicles with 20 percent and 141,635 units respectively. The rest of the months are going to be even better as generally September and Q4 are strong for EV sales.

Market share numbers for the last 3 years:



Diesel vehicles used to be more popular in Europe until the VW emissions scandal. Since then they started going out of favor and petrol car sales picked up market share initially. For the last 2-3 years, with more and more EV and PHEV options available, even petrol car sales starting to decline. This year, chip shortage is also one of the reasons for the overall sales decline but EV sales continue to grow rapidly.



Most popular models under different fuel types in August 2021:

[saikarthik]

Good to see the trend, and actually surprised to see the Mustang MachE selling close to Zoe's numbers.

I also notice the interestingly re-affirmative Yin-Yang moment on sale, whenever there is a slightly sharp increase in EV/PHEVs there is sharp decrease in the traditional fuel cars, this shows clearly it's not additional volume being converted to EV decision but clearly a migration.

[dragracer567]

I guess at this point Europe is ahead of the curve when it comes to EVs but the 21% includes PHEV's which are eco-friendly only if the owners bother to charge them. While I am curious about the split between BEVs and PHEVs since amongst the best sellers, BEVs seem to have the lead.

Exciting times ahead.

[sajaijayan]

Very interesting figures, I guess this is what it looks like when a disruption is starting!!

Compared to Aug 2020 sales ( Peak Pandemic)

ICE Vehicles top 10 - 5 have reduced sales and 5 increased.
For PHEV - 2 Have reduced, 5 Have increased and 3 New Players
For BeV - 1 Reduced, 3 increased and 6 New players.

I guess a definite trend and looks like 50% in 2 years will be an easy target. Hope this trend catches on across the globe.

[JReacher13]

Power crisis in China and UK ran out of Gaosline

On a slight OT

Strange times indeed! If similar power shortages are to be expected, what sort of implications on mobility are we looking at when EVs are the dominant vehicles on-road in the future. Without a strong focus on replacing conventional power sources with clean/ renewable ones, the shift to EVs will not lead to a net positive benefit.

It seems we as humankind are on the lookout for easy solutions and trying to disprove basic physical laws like the law of energy conservation or conveniently looking the other way. The only way to turn around emissions/ pollution is by reducing mobility as much as possible, encouraging efficient public transportation systems, and reducing overall consumption.

But whom are we kidding! In a world being driven by consumption-based economies and Instant gratification, it's never going to happen. EVs or Not, I'm a bit doubtful there's going to be a significant change.

[AnishRanjan]

Originally Posted by JReacher13

Power crisis in China and UK ran out of Gaosline

On a slight OT

Strange times indeed! If similar power shortages are to be expected, what sort of implications on mobility are we looking at when EVs are the dominant vehicles on-road in the future. Without a strong focus on replacing conventional power sources with clean/ renewable ones, the shift to EVs will not lead to a net positive benefit.

It seems we as humankind are on the lookout for easy solutions and trying to disprove basic physical laws like the law of energy conservation or conveniently looking the other way. The only way to turn around emissions/ pollution is by reducing mobility as much as possible, encouraging efficient public transportation systems, and reducing overall consumption.

But whom are we kidding! In a world being driven by consumption-based economies and Instant gratification, it's never going to happen. EVs or Not, I'm a bit doubtful there's going to be a significant change.

You are spot on. The whole net zero EV is just gimmick. Until we change our ways of living drastically, the future is starting to look scary. Politicians and corporates are out to make a quick buck and we are going to be the guinea pigs.

[SKC-auto]

Originally Posted by AnishRanjan

You are spot on. The whole net zero EV is just gimmick. Until we change our ways of living drastically, the future is starting to look scary. Politicians and corporates are out to make a quick buck and we are going to be the guinea pigs.

True, now how many will listen to you and sacrifice their lifestyle, their road trips, eating meat or eating less. I myself am trying very hard to reduce(not even stopping) my meat consumption, greatly looking forward for cheaper, healthier and tastier lab meat. Even though nothing is net zero, EVs are a better product than ICE, without a big lifestyle changes EVs help in better environment.

I do believe shared mobility by electric vehicles or shared Autonomous EVs are the way forward.

[JReacher13]

Originally Posted by SKC-auto

True, now how many will listen to you and sacrifice their lifestyle, their road trips, eating meat or eating less. I myself am trying very hard to reduce(not even stopping) my meat consumption, greatly looking forward for cheaper, healthier and tastier lab meat. Even though nothing is net zero, EVs are a better product than ICE, without a big lifestyle changes EVs help in better environment.

I do believe shared mobility by electric vehicles or shared Autonomous EVs are the way forward.

Again going OT (the thread is becoming about sustainability, Mods may please delete or move the post to the appropriate thread)

I agree that lifestyle changes are challenging, particularly when "Effort" is being systematically demonized across the world. The problem is rather than addressing the root cause, the solutions have become topical. Coincidentally, I am right now working on a cultured meat project. Unfortunately, no biotechnological pathway is efficient enough to mimic nature in the conversion of chemicals to nutrients. So the convergence of all three or any two factors you mentioned (cheaper/ healthier/ tastier) is a distant possibility.

Making difficult choices is, ofcourse difficult, but when we became the slaves of comfort to such an extent that I feel we are living the movie wall-e.

[SKC-auto]

Originally Posted by JReacher13

Coincidentally, I am right now working on a cultured meat project. Unfortunately, no biotechnological pathway is efficient enough to mimic nature in the conversion of chemicals to nutrients. So the convergence of all three or any two factors you mentioned (cheaper/ healthier/ tastier) is a distant possibility.

Good to know you are researching on lab meat. I read few articles and watched few videos recently which say that we are less than 10years from mass production of cultured meat, which has all the 3 above factors. What more, you can also taste different animal flavoured meats. I thought cost is the only concern now, though I never tasted lab meat.

[Livnletcarsliv]

EV's are still a very niche market.
Just going with this Europe statistics is definitely not a benchmark neither a future roadmap.
And in fact, most of these European countries (Norway, Sweden, Finland, etc.) are already self-sustainable in many other ways as well.

Some of my points are
1. The source of electricity generation - approx. 60% of the electricity generated in India is through Coal which in itself is a non-sustainable source.
2. Even with the current power generation capacity in India, there are hundred's/thousand's of rural/semi-urban areas where there is scarce of to no electricity. So how are we going to address this which is more important than the adoption of EV's?
3. Even in Urban areas, there is a significant power cut (which is not the case in any of those European countries). What if there is a power outage for a couple of days? What if there is a power cut for 1-2 hours every day?
4. Battery raw material - For eg. Lithium is the most adoptable EV battery material. One of the main mining areas for Lithium is Chile. And there is already another Capetown (no water and no people) in Chile that was the result of mining Lithium. So what is the alternative for Lithium?
5. Range anxiety - This is one of the biggest hurdles for EV adoption (especially in India). So in a country like India, where infrastructure is always lagging and lacking, what is the solution?
6. The attitude of the governments in India and states - Solar is an abundant energy source in India. If "go green" is the way forward, why there isn't any grant from the government. Why there is no push for self-sufficiency in power (both residential and commercial) through solar power generation especially in the southern states?

Well, there are a lot more points like better public transportation and connectivity, government policies and laws to promote EV adoption, power generation, etc.

At least for now (or the near future), the replacement from EV to ICE is like climbing from the lion's back to the tiger's back to escape.

[Shresth_EV]

Originally Posted by Livnletcarsliv

Some of my points are
1. The source of electricity generation - approx. 60% of the electricity generated in India is through Coal which in itself is a non-sustainable source.

EVs are 90% efficient. Best engines in cars are 30% efficient. Coal is dirty, but it’s not producing 3x more pollution. As long as that’s the case, EVs will still be cleaner to run.

City based pollution is largely vehicular and construction (in some cases industrial and agriculture like NCR — Parali burning)

Lockdown in 2020 proved that taking cars off the road has its benefits and I can assure you, more people than ever used electricity with power plants on overtime.

There are multiple studies on “long tailpipe-shifting source of pollution” argument over and and over again.

Here’s the latest, with India, USA, EU and China : ICCT
EVs in India are already 19% cleaner to run (even after adding battery production). Forecasts estimate 34% cleaner by 2030.

2. Even with the current power generation capacity in India, there are hundred's/thousand's of rural/semi-urban areas where there is scarce of to no electricity. So how are we going to address this which is more important than the adoption of EV's?

The problem is more of a “there’s no electric lines reaching that place” than “we don’t have enough electricity”. India has been in power surplus for quite a while now.

3. Even in Urban areas, there is a significant power cut (which is not the case in any of those European countries). What if there is a power outage for a couple of days? What if there is a power cut for 1-2 hours every day

That’s why people with EVs charge everyday. Why wait for the weekend when you can charge each day’s use (25% battery consumption according to 60km travel in Nexon EV takes 2.5-3h to charge.)

5. Range anxiety - This is one of the biggest hurdles for EV adoption (especially in India). So in a country like India, where infrastructure is always lagging and lacking, what is the solution?

How big is the road tripping culture in India? Since this is TBHP, answers are likely to be skewed in favour since it’s an Auto enthusiast community, not the average driver, but still.

It’s not difficult to analyse our own needs — if a car is doing less than 100km a day, it’s ideal use case. The solution is time taking but not impossible. It’s possible to buy an EV today with excess of 500km range.

However, that car is probably excess of $50K too. It will take time to achieve economy of scale in battery production and increase energy density through R&D.

If there was internet in 1886, people would’ve asked Benz why he wants to burn oil when there’s no infrastructure to sell it. How far can he go?

How long did it take for India to reach the ubiquitous infra for fuel as it does today?

6. The attitude of the governments in India and states - Solar is an abundant energy source in India. If "go green" is the way forward, why there isn't any grant from the government. Why there is no push for self-sufficiency in power (both residential and commercial) through solar power generation especially in the southern states?

I’m not sure why you say that. Solar subsidies have been there for long time. Check here

Several of my acquaintances have got benefit of solar subsidies.

Well, there are a lot more points like better public transportation and connectivity, government policies and laws to promote EV adoption, power generation, etc.

That’s why electric buses are being added to city bus fleets all over India (mumbai being most recent example).

Public transport has a big role, and has its own set of separate FAME subsidies for commercial vehicles like 3W auto, taxis and so on.

[mayukh42]

Originally Posted by Shresth_EV

The problem is more of a “there’s no electric lines reaching that place” than “we don’t have enough electricity”. India has been in power surplus for quite a while now.

That’s why people with EVs charge everyday. Why wait for the weekend when you can charge each day’s use (25% battery consumption according to 60km travel in Nexon EV takes 2.5-3h to charge.)

Well, just today there was a couple of hours of power cut, in my area (Koramangala, Bengaluru). This is not an off-beat place with no electric poles. And being IT capital where there is a demand for electricity in offices, in current times when the offices are not running in full capacity, that ain't an excuse either.

In fact, there was a power cut of around 8 hours one night and next morning combined, a month back. Then when power came, it was single phase 110V, for another couple of hours. Forget about EV, it even threatens the timely run of the water pumps.

And this is not just my area. Almost every other day some colleague would attend a meeting on phone instead of laptop, both here and in Pune, because there is no power to charge the laptop battery.

So no, even in the metro cities of India, we are not ready for EV based transportation, just based on power supply.

We will one day, of course. But not in near future.

Now, we could charge the vehicle in the other 22 hours, sure. But vehicles are all about convenience. If not, then we wouldn't need them in the first place. In the cases we actually need, it means that place does not have enough public transport, the corollary of which is that commute distances would usually be larger and charging station availability less.

An easy metric would be the ratio of fuel pumps:cars to ratio of charging stations:EVs. In India where purchasing power is less, the numerator of this ratio has to be invested first.

[Livnletcarsliv]

Originally Posted by Shresth_EV

EVs are 90% efficient. Best engines in cars are 30% efficient. Coal is dirty, but it’s not producing 3x more pollution. As long as that’s the case, EVs will still be cleaner to run.

I guess you overlooked what my point was. Or probably I did not convey properly.
I never said the idea and transformation to EV itself (as a replacement for ICE engine) is not good. My concern is about its ecosystem and its sustainability as an ecosystem. There are a lot of priorities that need to be addressed (in India) before we go full-on into the EV sphere.

Originally Posted by Shresth_EV

Here’s the latest, with India, USA, EU and China : ICCT
EVs in India are already 19% cleaner to run (even after adding battery production). Forecasts estimate 34% cleaner by 2030.

I am 100% sure that EV will get better. But how sustainable and successful will be for a country like India is the question here. Comparing India with European countries is not an apple-to-apple comparison at all.

Originally Posted by Shresth_EV

The problem is more of a “there’s no electric lines reaching that place” than “we don’t have enough electricity”.

Seriously? I can take examples of 100's rural areas where there is no power. India has a surplus power generation capacity but lacks adequate transmission and distribution infrastructure. India's electricity sector is dominated by fossil fuels, in particular coal, which during the 2018-19 fiscal year produced about three-quarters of the country's electricity.

How is this sustainable?

Originally Posted by Shresth_EV

That’s why people with EVs charge everyday. Why wait for the weekend when you can charge each day’s use (25% battery consumption according to 60km travel in Nexon EV takes 2.5-3h to charge.)

90% of India's vehicle/car owners today are in the "only one car" segment. This everyday charging is best suited only for cities, especially metros.

Originally Posted by Shresth_EV

How big is the road tripping culture in India? Since this is TBHP, answers are likely to be skewed in favour since it’s an Auto enthusiast community, not the average driver, but still.
If there was internet in 1886, people would’ve asked Benz why he wants to burn oil when there’s no infrastructure to sell it. How far can he go?

The concept of EV is not new. In fact, it was introduced in the 1830's itself which is way before the first automobile in 1886. The EV's did not progress further from then due to numerous reasons; lobbying and corporate politics were some of the main reasons.

Originally Posted by Shresth_EV

I’m not sure why you say that. Solar subsidies have been there for long time.

Several of my acquaintances have got benefit of solar subsidies.

Today the cost of setting up a solar solution is way too expensive. FYI, just from yesterday, the GST was increased from 5% to 12% on Solar. Making solar more unaffordable doesn't complement the "go green" strategy.
And there are many states where the subsidy (which was earlier available) is completely stopped for a few years now.

Just replacing ICE vehicles with electric vehicles alone won't solve the problem. There needs to be a more comprehensive and strong ecosystem and strategies to achieve the goal of this transformation. For now, the roadmap for India looks bleak. A long way to go.

[CarJunki]

The world is going electric and yes, even India will be a majority electric vehicle market before this decade is out. No matter who is taking which side in the debate.

Every consumer has his(her) own reasons to choose. A combination of factors and ability to create your fuel with solar panels will be a big draw to rural areas. A person who can own any kind of new car today in rural part of India will have enough surplus land to install sufficient solar generation capacity. With that will come strange tax dynamics, for the first time in history mobility will disrupt tax structures.

Interesting times ahead.

[dragracer567]

Originally Posted by Livnletcarsliv

I guess you overlooked what my point was. Or probably I did not convey properly.
I never said the idea and transformation to EV itself (as a replacement for ICE engine) is not good. My concern is about its ecosystem and its sustainability as an ecosystem. There are a lot of priorities that need to be addressed (in India) before we go full-on into the EV sphere.

You've to keep in mind that when you say 'ecosystem sustainability', you've consider compared to what. The EV lifecycle sustainability is indeed lower than ICEs and only getting more sustainable. Offcourse, EVs also have lifetime emissions but its lower than the lifetime emissions of any ICE even if the power source is coal. We are trying to reduce our emissions, so it doesn't make sense sticking to ICEs because EVs aren't 100% sustainable (nothing is).

I am 100% sure that EV will get better. But how sustainable and successful will be for a country like India is the question here. Comparing India with European countries is not an apple-to-apple comparison at all.

Actually it is an apples-to-apples comparison. @Shresth_EV provided data for India in the link ICCT

Seriously? I can take examples of 100's rural areas where there is no power. India has a surplus power generation capacity but lacks adequate transmission and distribution infrastructure. India's electricity sector is dominated by fossil fuels, in particular coal, which during the 2018-19 fiscal year produced about three-quarters of the country's electricity.

How is this sustainable

Providing electricity to rural areas is a problem independent of EVs. EVs or not those rural areas need to be connected to the grid. Also, The contribution of coal will be reducing in the coming decades but even if coal powers the grid, the lifetime emissions of EVs are still much lower than ICEs.

90% of India's vehicle/car owners today are in the "only one car" segment. This everyday charging is best suited only for cities, especially metros.

It isn't inconceivable that by 2030-2035, there will be a sufficiently big enough charging infrastructure to allow inter-city travel, the west is really close to achieving that, so it's not impossible to achieve that in 10-15 years for India.

Today the cost of setting up a solar solution is way too expensive. FYI, just from yesterday, the GST was increased from 5% to 12% on Solar. Making solar more unaffordable doesn't complement the "go green" strategy.
And there are many states where the subsidy (which was earlier available) is completely stopped for a few years now.

Fascinatingly no. At this point, it is actually cheaper to install a solar powerplant as compared to a coal powerplant in terms of CAPEX per MwH produced. Infact, solar is at this point is the cheaper source of energy in India . Keep in mind that this will keep reducing in the coming years, that's why states are removing subsidies, it's cheaper on its own at this point Source. Moreover, the operational costs of solar energy are lower as well which why China and India shut down their coal plants but continued to operate their solar and wind farms when the demand for electricity crashed in 2020 Source.

Just replacing ICE vehicles with electric vehicles alone won't solve the problem. There needs to be a more comprehensive and strong ecosystem and strategies to achieve the goal of this transformation. For now, the roadmap for India looks bleak. A long way to go.

I couldn't agree with you more. The road to sustainability involves increasing public transport, embracing nature-based solutions, reducing excessive consumption and major lifestyle changes which will be very difficult for humans.