[RahulNagaraj]

Source: FinShots (highly recommend subscribing to their daily newsletter)

Have you ever watched an old movie and noticed how loud the trains were?

That deep rumble came from diesel engines. Back then, you could hear a train coming long before you saw it! And if you were sitting inside, you’d feel that slight to-and-fro rocking motion. It was all part of the experience.

Cut to today you hop onto a train, and it’s almost noise-free and stable, so you might not even realise that it’s moving.

That’s the magic of electrification!

But why talk about this today?

Well, Indian Railways is on a mission to go fully electric and become the world’s largest “Green Railway”, with plans to hit net-zero carbon emissions by 2030. And to get there, they plan to add 30,000 MW of renewable energy capacity by FY30.

And they’re going full throttle towards this goal. The proof is the fact that since 2014, railway electrification has shot up nearly tenfold. And today, 97% of the Broad Gauge network runs on electricity. Oh, and if you’re curious, a railway gauge just refers to the width of the track or the distance between the insides of the two steel rails. So broad gauge is simply the widest track.

In fact, India is outpacing many Western nations. For context, 60% of the European Union (EU) railways are electrified, compared to 40% in the UK and a measly 1% in the US. And since most of India’s electricity is produced domestically, the shift to 100% electrification of railways could significantly reduce the need for imported oil, lowering the overall import bill.

Impressive, no?

However, while the progress so far is commendable, this journey has its hurdles.

For example, in the rush to replace diesel locomotives with electric ones, over 700 diesel engines are sitting idle, even though they could be used for another 15 years before reaching retirement. A handful of these old diesel-electric locomotives might even be repurposed and exported to African countries, helping clear the way for rail electrification.

But here’s the catch. In addition to reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, this transition to electric engines is also a significant economic decision. Electrification isn’t just about stringing up wires and flipping a switch. It requires massive investments, and these assets must be used intensively to justify the cost. Over the years, committees have calculated traffic break-even points or the minimum volume of freight or passenger traffic needed to make electrification economically viable.

And guess what? The results were shocking. Nearly 62% of railway routes fail to meet this threshold, meaning electrification on these routes doesn’t make financial sense.

Why’s that, you ask?

For starters, the Indian Railways play a crucial role in transporting coal from mines to thermal power plants. For perspective, nearly half of the Railways’ freight earnings in FY24 were generated by transporting coal for various purposes. If we reduced our reliance on coal and shifted to other renewable sources, we would not need coal, and thus, the railways would not need to transport such vast amounts of coal, which would hit their revenues hard!

Then comes the issue of emergencies. Electrified routes depend entirely on power infrastructure. In power outages or cases of damage, diesel locomotives are often the unsung heroes, stepping in to keep operations running. And that’s why the railways plan to retain 2,500 diesel engines out of the 4,000 we have today for ‘disaster management and strategic purposes’. Another 1,000 will still be used for the next few years to handle the current level of train traffic and ensure that the railways can meet demand. So we won’t really be moving away from fossil fuel powered trains.

And even though electric locomotives are cleaner than their diesel counterparts, a staggering three-fourths of India’s electricity still comes from fossil fuels, with nearly half of it sourced from coal-fired power plants. So, while complete electrification may reduce diesel emissions near the tracks, the pollution merely shifts to thermal power plants, creating concentrated emissions elsewhere.

Plus, the railways’ argument about cutting down on imported crude oil doesn’t really hold up when you look at the numbers. In FY22, Indian Railways accounted for just 0.6% of the country’s total petroleum consumption and an almost invisible 0.01% of the overall import bill. To put that in perspective, the railways sip on a mere 2% of the high-speed diesel we use. So, it’s hardly moving the needle.

So yeah, at its core, the push for 100% electrification seems a bit far from practical. And until India’s power grid runs predominantly on renewable energy and until economic viability aligns with environmental aspirations, the dream of a fully green railway will remain elusive.

[BullettuPaandi]

Interesting read! Only 700+ parked engines is still quite impressive, in my opinion; the total number of operating trains must be in the order of tens of thousands. I think, given the current geo-political landscape, the independency from importing crude is worth it.

I mean, isn't this why certain fields, where the private industry can't quite viably function yet, are better handled by the Govt.? They don't have to make immediate financial sense, when they can subsidise from tax money for a while.

Also, the 'not being able to transport coal hitting revenue' argument seems to presume there's nothing else to transport, which I'm sure there is.

A better measure of impact on crude import would be comparing the current bill to that of 2014, since when this very article claims ten-fold improvement. I'm confused how they got to such 'andhar balti' conclusion, with simply inferring 'it's hardly moving the needle' just today.

With the current battery technology, it's the already big, heavy things that already need a lot of infrastructure and currently churns out smoke, that are the closest to perfectly practical, in terms of 100% electrification. Guess which ticks all those boxes?

[condor]

A different view point: I would rather have a fair % of Diesel Loco's even on main routes, instead of an all electric fleet.

Actual 100% electrification may not be viable, like with very remote regions. But my above thought applies to regular/busy routes too.

[SmartCat]

Data points are taken from an article written on The Wire. What that means is the article will have political undertones. So one has to closely analyse the data presented. https://thewire.in/government/why-th...zarre-decision

1) Electrification requires large investments, but it is not expenditure (expenses). It is an asset with a life of 50+ years. What that means is, if Rs. 100,000 cr is invested in electrification of a section, the expenditure should be considered as Rs. 3,000 cr to Rs. 4,000 cr per year (incl maintenance), for doing cost benefit analysis.

2) "Nearly 62% of routes fail to meet threshold" means 38% already meets the threshold. But this electrification infrastruture has life of 50+ years during which both passenger and cargo transport will grow at enormous pace. In the past 20 years, Indian railways revenues has gone up 11% CAGR.



3) Saying Railways constitutes "just 2%" of total diesel use is silly after 90% electrification. Obviously Indian Railways diesel consumption would have crashed. And what matters more is operational cost savings from switching to electricity. Question is, what would be diesel costs be (as percentage of revenues) without this electrification? And what would the diesel costs be 20/30/40 years from now, if there was no electrifcation?

4) Coal transport consitutes 50% of cargo revenues, not 50% of entire revenues as the article says. Even in the future, as we invest in renewables, we will continue to have legacy coal plants for decades to come. So there is no risk to these revenues for decades. Sure, in the year 2075, coal revenues might be zero, but that is not a great argument against electrification now.

However, it is always prudent to have diesel locomotives as backup, since power infrastructure can come under missile or cyber attacks from China, in case major hostilities breakout.

[sagarpadaki]

It is never a good idea to go 100% election traction. It takes, 1 black out or an idiot shorting the OHE with a stone wrapped to a wire to bring down a section of track and all the trains on that track to a standstill.

Also, IR has made significant investment in diesel traction with a huge number of WDP4, WDG4, WDG6 and their sub variants. These cannot be phased out anytime soon without incurring huge capital losses. It is the old Alco's which will face the axe (pains the heart of every railfan).

There was a section maintenance between Sira and Davanagere in 2023 which rendered all the electric locos useless for a couple of days, and railways had to arrange for many diesel locos including the old Alco's to manage the situation.

[AZT]

'100%' is far-fetched. But burning of fossil fuels has to reduce so electrification will gradually happen.

[fhdowntheline]

For whatever it is worth, the US has major freight lines on diesel. Its not technically impossible for them to do it, whatever be the terrain issues, but surely they also looked at the economic feasibility.
I do not like the feeling I get that somehow the babus are pushing for fancy looking numbers to make their employers look good. I think some agency needs to do a bit of a reality check every now and then. We are seeing something similar coming out of the E20 "push" for our cars.

[mygodbole]

Not 'far-fetched'. Really. More of 'how soon' and at 'what cost'.

We can argue endlessly on fuel/pollution costs, but the benefits of electrification far outweighs the cost. Yes, we shift the pollution to the coal-fired power generation units, but this is part of the change in the thought process of all of us. Senior citizens and history buffs among us (I plead guilty to the latter) remember the discussions and difference of opinions of ethanol blending and EV acceptance.

As far as I understand, railways have three primary reasons of existence: 1) Goods; 2) Passengers; and 3) Connectivity for defence.

On Goods: An earlier post states we need to figure out a way to utilise the freight capacity being created as part of the dedicated freight corridors (DFCs). Yes, freight, not just coal.

The ongoing progress on the two DFCs is encouraging since use of both electric and diesel locomotives on these is pretty common. No issues with hauling power or speed so far (as far as I know).

On Passenger traffic: As goods trains shift on to DFCs, space is created for more passenger traffic. Beneficial for the people as long as trains run on time.

Comparisons with US and western markets are meaningless since many of these are NOT subsidised and there are insurance costs to be considered. Also, the sheer numbers of citizens DEPENDENT on IR simply cannot be compared with other networks. Even the Chinese rail network is not as extensive as IR (The Rameswaram-Pambam link is a case in point).

Indian Railways has a fiscal black hole called subsidies for 'essential goods' and 'passenger traffic'. Plug these and voila, deficit funding will fall dramatically.

On defence: The infrastructure (both existing and coming up) is for 'use in case ...' scenarios. Available when needed. With both diesel and electric locomotives for hauling whatever needs to be hauled.

Come to think of it, as far as I know, ALL modern locomotives use electricity for traction. Only the power generation method is changing: from diesel-electric to DC- (and in some cases, AC-) electric.

So? Not really 'far-fatched'.

[Hayek]

I am all for electric vehicles and electrification in principle. But an analysis of total costs is extremely important when public money is at stake, as is the case with railways, and when the railways don’t seem to have the money to invest in things like modern signalling technology or turning corridors into dual carriageways.

While the article concerned is badly written, what is indisputable is that you need to assess the IRR of different projects over their useful life and then decide whether to invest. I have not seen anything that suggests that such an analysis has been done. BTW, even what we call diesel engines are actually diesel electric engines - where a DG set generates electricity which drives electric traction motors. So railways have always got the benefit of the traction characteristics of electric motors. So 100% electrification does seem like a boondoggle - with people implementing the Emperor’s directives without application of thought.

[horseblood]

I think barring remote areas, 100% electrification is prudent, economical and needed.

My only gripe is why they use diesel powered auxillary power unit (the one car for power generation) instead of HOG (Head On Generation - where power for coaches is drawn from the Electric line by connecting power cables to loco) when the entire train is run on electricity!! Makes me chuckle every single time when the train leaving the platform gives a generous gift of black hot plume right in the face of the folks on platform, from the power car, especially in 45C summer.

Another thing much needed is the default AC temp should be set to a comfortable 25C for all seasons (official order already issued a couple years back) and be made non changeable so that the maintenance folks cant change it on a whim.

Both these steps would massively increase energy use efficiency, which I like to see.

[vikas8890]

I think this 100% electrification of rail infra is not as bad as pointed in the article. The railway demand is increasing across the country. Wherever there is less demand it will surely going to increase, barring maybe few sections. A uniform infra helps in operational efficiency. However it is a must that revenue dragging holes be plugged and capacity of railways be increased to cope with the increased demand of rail services across the country.

[Jeroen]

Originally Posted by Hayek

. BTW, even what we call diesel engines are actually diesel electric engines - where a DG set generates electricity which drives electric traction motors. So railways have always got the benefit of the traction characteristics of electric motors.

Yes, they tend to be, mostly, diesel electric. However, electric locomotives are far superior in performance compared to diesel electric. They have a much better power to weight ratio and also have the capability to use energy regeneration on braking (similar to EVs).

What it comes down to in practice, electrical locomotives can be far more powerfull than their diesel electric variants. They also have the capability to accelerate more quickly, which tends to be really important on lines with lots of stations.

There used to a locomotive rule of thumb, pulling power of electrical locomotives starts where diesel electric ones end.

Think of it like this: a locomotive has a given volume. For a diesel electric you need to cram in a diesel engine, diesel engine controls, diesel tank, electric motors, electric motor controls. For an electric locomotive you use the same volume just for electric motors and controls. So electrical locomotives have a superior horsepower to volume ratio.

So conversely,you need a very small space to accommodate the technical bits of an electrical train. So you get passenger trains with an integrated power units like this.



There are other considerations, some technical, why diesel electric traction might be better than electric. Of course, steam locomotives are also extremely powerful!

Check out the list of most powerfull locomotives. Lots of electrical and steam before we see the first diesel electric!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...ul_locomotives

Jeroen

[ashuezy]

Majority of the Electricity is being generated from coal so indirectly these are steam engines.

[benu9714]

I think we should broaden our perspective to look a few decades ahead, instead of focusing on immediate costs, IRR etc.

I believe that in the next 25-30 years time the world will see a major move towards electricity in all forms of transport, driven by three main factors:
- innovations in the generation and transportation of green energy - more efficient solar/wind/hydel/tidal power, and clean nuclear energy
- new methods of storage of electricity - batteries, green hydrogen/ammonia, pumped hydro etc
- connection of grids between countries to better utilise renewable energy generation.

India is still heavily susceptible to price/supply fluctuations in petroleum. if our trains were running largely on diesel today, we would have been even more vulnerable.

Perhaps 100% railway electrification is coming a little ahead of its time, but there is no doubt that it is the way to go.

Regarding the stock of operational but surplus diesel engines, India can use them as a tool of extending friendships with developing countries by giving them aaway cheap or even free.

[Vmk1950]

Originally Posted by RahulNagaraj

Source: FinShots (highly recommend subscribing to their daily newsletter)

Total electrification by Indian Railways may seem bit ambitious but that is the direction they should move. Atleast 90% electrification of trains by 2030-2035 should be the target.
Few doubts were raised in the article on this and following clarifications can be considered.

1. We import over 70% of petrol / diesel in India and this is the number one FE drainer. And Indian Railways, use electric diesel engines to a large extent and one of the biggest consumer. Their consumption of diesel will substantially come down with near total electrification.
2.Some one pointed out, due to higher requirement of electricity more coal is needed to produce electricity since nearly 60% electricity produced through coal. This wont be an issue since 90% coal requirement is fed by Indian coal mines. Railways too will get extra revenue to transport more coal from colieries to power generating centers.
3. Railways can electrify important routes and rest of the level three routes existing electro diesel engines can be used. Surplus engines can be reconditioned and sold to third world countries.
4. Electrification requires one time major capital expense with lesser recurring costs and less maintanance. The amortised cost per kilometer of an electric train is likely to be much lower then a diesel run train.
5. We are moving from fosil fuel to alternative energies like wind power, solar energy etc. So Railways too should move in that direction. If not 100% they should aim 70-80% of electrification by 2030.