[Aditya]

No nation in the world is buying as many airplanes as India. Its largest airlines have ordered nearly 1,000 jets this year, committing tens of billions of dollars to a spending spree that is unparalleled in aviation. In New Delhi, Indira Gandhi International Airport will be ready for 109 million passengers next year, as it prepares to become the world’s second busiest, behind Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport in the United States.

Air travel remains out of the financial reach of most Indians. An estimated 3 percent of the country’s population flies on a regular basis. But in a nation of 1.4 billion people, that percentage represents 42 million — executives, students and engineers who yearn to get quickly from here to there inside India’s borders, and to gain easier access to destinations beyond, for both business and vacation.

Two beneficiaries of India’s expanding aviation market are the world’s largest airplane makers: Boeing in America and Airbus in Europe. In February, Air India, which the Tata Group took private last year, agreed to buy 250 planes from Airbus and 220 from Boeing, worth a combined $70 billion. In June, IndiGo, the country’s biggest carrier by passengers and flights, ordered 500 new Airbus A320s.

The bulk of the growth of Indian aviation has been among homegrown airlines, which have clocked a 36 percent increase in passengers since 2022.

The air corridor between Delhi and Mumbai was already one of the world’s 10 busiest.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government likes to point out that the number of airports has doubled in the nine years since he took office, to 148 from 74. Jyotiraditya Scindia, Mr. Modi’s aviation minister, said there would be at least 230 by 2030.

That means that sleepy towns like Darbhanga, a former principality in the impoverished state of Bihar in eastern India, now have nonstop access to Delhi, Bengaluru and beyond. For many of the 900 travelers a day who fill its flights, including plenty from nearby Nepal, the new airport has transformed the journey.

Prasanna Kumar Jha, 52, was born in Darbhanga but works in Delhi as a tax consultant. “Who ever expected that Darbhanga would be on the air map?” he asked. Flying to his hometown on short notice to see his ailing mother cost him 10,500 rupees ($126), which pinched.

“But if you calculate the alternative — by train from Delhi and then taxi to Darbhanga — it will take at least 30 hours,” he said. “The plane journey is no longer a luxury but a necessity.”

Source: The New York Times

[Rajeevraj]

Not surprising. Even with the miniscule percent of the people who fly regularly, the numbers are huge considering our population. This number will continue to grow, no doubt about it.

I fly domestic fairly regulary primarily from Bangalore and the crowd at the Bangalore airport every morning is equivalent to what we see in a bus stand or railway station. A teeming mass of humanity even considering the fact that Bangalore is a large airport. Every single flight to anywhere from anywhere is always full.

I recently took a Pune Bangalore flight at an ungodly hour of 2.30am. I expected a peaceful not too crowded flight. Instead that too was packed.It was half the cost of a regular day time flight and that made it very attractive.

The other aspect of it is that the railway infra is not getting priotized enough. A lot of cities which have short hop flights will actually be served better with semi high speed rail connectivity. Example- Bangalore Chennai.

[ninjatalli]

Let's understand a few details better to understand the reasons behind this

1. All the news of massive domestic passenger growth in 2022 and 2023 is just us getting back to the heights of 2018 - 2019. Domestic passenger numbers in 2022 was about ~124 Mn, still well short of what it was before covid (~168 Mn).




2. The number of active operators with double digit (>10%) market share have reduced drastically to only two currently - Indigo and Air India (the merged entity). This makes it an excellent situation for those two.




3. A key point to note - the domestic market numbers have been growing gradually year on year since 2012 till 2019. The number is expected to continue to keep growing over the next two decades. Not at the double digit growth seen in last two years but still a decent growth. Given the duopoly situation and absence of any significant competition from others (local and international players), this allows the two players to confidently bet big. And hence the two large orders by both Air India and Indigo.

Sources: World Bank data, Reuters

[WorkingGuru]

There's a huge income disparity, that's why.

On the one hand we see mind numbingly huge purchases like these, in anticipation of demand. On the other we see a huge dip in sales of 2 wheelers & A-segment cars. Life of an average Indian needs to improve.

[fhdowntheline]

Originally Posted by WorkingGuru

There's a huge income disparity, that's why.

On the one hand we see mind numbingly huge purchases like these, in anticipation of demand. On the other we see a huge dip in sales of 2 wheelers & A-segment cars. Life of an average Indian needs to improve.

Correspondingly, the sales of B and C segments have shot up. People are just moving up the pecking order in the car categories. The average car buyer is willing to spend more than 6-7 lac for their first car. Indeed I see so many buyers on social media posting videos of their C-segment sedans/CSUVs which are their first cars.

[sandeepmdas]

Originally Posted by WorkingGuru

Life of an average Indian needs to improve.

That's almost the last thing you can expect. Even if the professionally managed companies or technical achievements make cheaper airfares a possibility the government won't allow that. Taxman cometh!

Edit: taken from Cleartax

[SmartCat]

Chinese airlines have reduced their purchase of narrow body Boeing/Airbus aircraft like A320 and B737. Instead, they have opted for purchase of locally developed Comac C919. They also plan to make a widebody long range airliner too.

Chinese aircraft maker receives over 1,000 C919 jet orders
https://english.news.cn/20230910/b48...689842f/c.html





So thanks to reduced sales from China, India is likely to be the biggest market for Boeing/Airbus. Knowing this, India is gently nudging Boeing/Airbus to setup an assembly line for airliners here. Airbus already has an assembly line in China.

India says 'time has come' for Airbus, Boeing to set up jet assembly plants
https://www.reuters.com/business/aer...ts-2023-03-24/

[redeff]

Let's not forget that this fleet expansion isn't just about adding new capacity. A lot of these planes go into replacing the aging fleet that Air India has. With respect to Indigo, they operate on the lease back model as it is. New aircraft tend to be fuel efficient. It helps keep cost down. The leases on a lot of older aircraft may not be renewed depending upon operational requirement.


The Indian Aviation sector is quite a challenging one. Mumbai Airport already operates also at full capacity. IGI, thanks to its massive size expands in order to meet demand. The Aircraft orders, specially from Air India, were long overdue.

[PreludeSH]

Hope the huge number of aircraft ordered actually start plying. Not sure what kind of passenger movements we are seeing. Unlike US, people are not scattered across the country to visit family etc. It could mostly be business and some pleasure.

Most of my colleagues fly to their native places instead of rail that was used before. Thats only for cities like Bengaluru with lot of opportunities. Others in neighbouring states just drive. Driving with good highways has become a favourite way of movement. The internal tourist numbers should increase and lot of it should happen through air.

[srikanthp3]

I read somewhere an interesting take on how Indigo's large A320 orders choked the supply for other airlines. And the leaseback model of course is helpful for them.

The overall service levels are also pretty decent, except for struggling ones like Akasa, and Spicejet.

We definitely need more competition though, the effective duopoly has led to crazy airfares (15 k BLR-DEL for Diwali week!).

[ads11]

Originally Posted by Rajeevraj

The other aspect of it is that the railway infra is not getting priotized enough. A lot of cities which have short hop flights will actually be served better with semi high speed rail connectivity. Example- Bangalore Chennai.

Definitely concur with this - given India already has a strong tradition of rail travel, and a very price conscious customer base, plus the added fact that rail travel is pretty much the greenest mass transport method, I hope it doesn't get neglected. All that being said it's unfair to deny folks the aspirational part of being able to fly somewhere. Hopefully a good middle ground can be found.

Originally Posted by SmartCat

Chinese airlines have reduced their purchase of narrow body Boeing/Airbus aircraft like A320 and B737. Instead, they have opted for purchase of locally developed Comac C919. They also plan to make a widebody long range airliner too.

I mean this is unsurprising. The govt there was also going to ensure domestic Chinese carriers bought the C919 in force, be it gently nudged to do so or arm twisted into doing so. Their domestic market is large enough that if Comac can get a foothold in there, that should give them more than enough of a foundation to build upon. What I'm curious to see is how soon Boeing spits the dummy and starts crying about state support for Comac given it's a playbook they've used for decades, first with Airbus and most recently with Bombardier.

So thanks to reduced sales from China, India is likely to be the biggest market for Boeing/Airbus. Knowing this, India is gently nudging Boeing/Airbus to setup an assembly line for airliners here. Airbus already has an assembly line in China.

India says 'time has come' for Airbus, Boeing to set up jet assembly plants
https://www.reuters.com/business/aer...ts-2023-03-24/

Given the carrot on offer, it behoves the GoI to provide some kind of gentle nudge, or stick basically to get the two big players to set up some sort of infrastructure here. Hopefully off the back of the big orders from the Air India group and Indigo, you'll start to see more of an incentive from the OEMs to establish something here.

I will say though, looking at that graph of the market share of players in the Indian market it's a bit dispiriting to see how essentially it's looking like it'll be a duopoly between Indigo on one hand and the Air India group of companies on the other. It's great to see the proliferation of airports but wish there was a bit more diversity of carriers in the domestic air sector - then again, as wiser members have pointed out in other threads, it's a ruthless sector to succeed in.

[svsantosh]

In about 5-7 years when people ask "How was the traffic?"...

you can ask "Which one, Road or Air?"

Or...

"Which - Roads (from/to airport) , Taxi-ing, or Going around in Air?"

Enjoy and have a safe flight :-)



All pics taken off internet; credit to respective apps, websites, owners...