[srini4344]

I have just read an article in ET auto yesterday and understand that the market is down about -78%.

This may because of the current pandemic situation, But what I don't understand why -78%. It is not digestible.

Why is the market dying so fast that in a year's time?

Please through some light on the same.

PS: I'm not sure is the right place to post, Request Admins to direct to the right forum.

Regards
Srini

[GTO]

Thread moved to the commercial vehicle forum!

Here's a good read on the same - End of the road for 3-wheelers?

While Jeeto costs more than double the Alfa, the point I am raising here is that the 4-wheeled micro CVs are eating into the 3-wheelers. The 4-wheeled options offer greater operational stability, payloads and life. Over the lifecycle of the vehicle, it pays back for its higher sticker price. Consider the Tata Ace Zip as another viable option at a more competitive price. For passenger carriers options like Bajaj Cute are available. The brand has opened up a new segment of “quadricycle” – basically a 3-wheeler with a 4th wheel! Tata Motors has an interesting product called Magic Iris

[SmartCat]

While Jeeto costs more than double the Alfa, the point I am raising here is that the 4-wheeled micro CVs are eating into the 3-wheelers. The 4-wheeled options offer greater operational stability, payloads and life. Over the lifecycle of the vehicle, it pays back for its higher sticker price.

I don't think the above statement by the ET Auto author makes sense. Tata Nano or pre-owned Alto too has greater stability and passenger carrying capacity than a Honda Activa, but that does not mean the 2x to 3x higher price of a car and its associated higher running costs is something customers will ignore. As long as there is a significant price and running cost difference, demand for 3 wheeler cargo & passenger CVs will continue.

Remember that 3 wheeler CV segment includes both passenger + cargo sales. But 4 wheeler micro CV segment mostly caters to cargo segment. It is quite likely that taxi 4 wheeler segment (Eg: Dzire Tour) too has seen a large crash in sales and has not revived yet.

[srini1785]

I think this death needs to be rejoiced rather than mourned. Anyone here misses those Piaggio dump autos and the god forsaken ruckus that these diesel vibrators create?.

[condor]

Operational stability - to expand on this, if one observes these vehicles, or better - has driven one of those 3 wheelers, they would know how ridiculously un-stable these are. One can say that these auto-drivers get used to it's dynamics, but that cannot remove the un-stability of these platforms. These are not the long body Hanseats. Short wheelbase + 3 wheels - not stable all the time.

Quite recently, as the lockdown was being slowly lifted in Bangalore, cops were seizing vehicles (under conditions applied then). Cops seized an auto and one cop was taking it to the yard where other seized vehicles were stored. This auto capsized and sadly, the cop died.

**
78% drop - looks too high.
But positive side is that we can have a little better mode of transport.

[Mafia]

These are seemingly temporary trends due to slowdown due to lockdown.

First-quarter sales of 2021 will be a real indicator of the industry and recovery trends. I am not saying things will go back to normal, just an upward trend should give hope to the industry.

[landcruiser123]

I think it is mostly the pandemic affecting sales. People are not using 3 wheelers to commute and small businesses that either own or hire 3 wheelers for transporting goods are facing a tough time in 2020.

Originally Posted by SmartCat

... but that does not mean the 2x to 3x higher price of a car and its associated higher running costs is something customers will ignore. As long as there is a significant price and running cost difference, demand for 3 wheeler cargo & passenger CVs will continue.

In a large urban market with potential for a good ROI and the vehicles usually run fully (over)loaded, there is an incentive to switch to 4 wheelers with more capacity.

I've seen it in a lot of cases - I personally know my friendly caterer & a factory owner in Bangalore who moved to a Tata Ace to replace their 3 wheeled Force Tempo (with a steering wheel) for deliveries. Even 'share autos' in Chennai have modified the Tata Ace for carrying more people. But new autos remain the preferred beast of burden in my village near Thanjavur - those markets are more price-sensitive and I doubt there's any incentive to change soon.

[neeravnaik]

One could argue that open three wheelers are safer than cabs if there is a partition in between due to the ventilation in COVID times

But the longer term trends due to the app taxis is on decline so this is not going to help much. Overall I love the convenience of taking an auto on the go but the unprofessional attitudes have really hurt them.

[sarav100]

Originally Posted by GTO

Thread moved to the commercial vehicle forum!

Here's a good read on the same - End of the road for 3-wheelers?

I can personally vouch for this claim. Passengers, especially the old age ones, in nearby villagers demand for 4 wheeled auto rather than the 3 wheeled one. One factor responsible for the same is overall covering of tata ace zip and alikes that does not let chilling winter air to enter passenger compartment unlike the 3 wheeler wherein it enters somehow even if additional covers are installed. Moreover, 4 wheeled ones are faster, stable and relatively more comfortable.

Another surprising observation is that these are more popular in rural region when compared to cities wherein 3 wheelers still account for most CVs.

I see no point in someone buying a 3 wheeled contraption when a better, 4 wheeled alternative is available. No wonder their sales are dwindling.

[Sanidhya mukund]

I have always hoped that we get rid of these 3 wheeled contraptions as soon as possible. Who even likes those horrible khat-khat sounding machines that belch smoke and are driven with total disregard for every other road user?
Not to mention that they are tragically unsafe for occupants. They have no doors, no seatbelts, zero occupant protection, are very easy to topple and generally driven very rashly. They often become death traps for their occupants. Even a low speed city crash can prove fatal, as the occupant can either get thrown out into oncoming traffic, or hit his head on dangerous metal structures in the cabin.
Whenever I see the news of a 3 wheeler accident causing the death of innocent souls, because of the recklessness of a drunk driver in his big fat SUV, I wonder if the person could have been alive had they been in a safer vehicle.


https://www.ndtv.com/delhi-news/auto...-delhi-1821311

[alphadog]

Thats a huge drop, not withstanding the effect of the pandemic.

I for one rejoice at this news, if it is a true trend here to stay. The passenger autorickshaws and the cargo ones, both are inherently unsafe, are an utter nuisance on the roads - take random U turns, make directional changes without any indication or regard for other road users. They may have some use in the inner cities with congested roads, for moving small goods and passengers from point A to B, but I believe that there should be an outright ban on these vehicles on the faster roads and highways.

Unfortunately, in my state these are very often found hogging the already narrow NH and SH roads, leading to huge amounts of frustration to other road users.

Wishing for the welcome trend to continue.

Cheerio!

[AirbusCapt]

Good riddance to third world rubbish! It's high time we got ridden of these tricycle contraptions with zero care for safety and emissions. More over these three wheelers slow down the traffic and cause several accidents due their unstable nature and short turning radius.

[Cessna182]

The article does not talk about the electric 3 wheelers that have inundated most cities and towns. These are usually called erickshaws and are locally made using parts from different vendors. They can carry more passengers or goods compared to a normal 3 wheeler and cost almost nothing to run, because the electricity is often stolen from overhead cables.

I have seen these everywhere from Delhi to remote villages. The interesting thing is that no one knows how many units sell every month because the market is so fragmented with no large organized trade association to represent them. ET reports estimate the market size to be around 1 million vehicles by 2025. These will account for 80% of the EVs sold in India.

https://auto.economictimes.indiatime...-fy25/71077294

[smooth indian]

If 3 wheelers are indeed becoming unpopular, it is time to celebrate IMHO. Apart from being unstable, 3 wheelers screamed 3rd world status and more critically the 3 wheeler drivers (aided by the low turning radius) contributed enormously to poor traffic discipline in our cities (of course they are not alone). With micro LCVs and motorized quadricycles taking root, it is perhaps better that small freight carriers and the autorickshaw segment migrate to economic 4 wheelers.

[V.Narayan]

The behaviour of three-wheeler drivers especially auto-rickshaw guys and the rash conduct on the road colours our views of three-wheelers. By ours I mean the well off car owning citizenery of India aka Team BHP members. For millions the three-wheeler is a lifeline to get to their place of employment or to run their modest businesses or the sole means of convenient transport.

There is no doubt in my mind that the age of three wheelers has now passed or is passing by in India at least in some segments. Three-wheelers are a product of an under-developed or developing economy short on capital. As an economy passes by a certain stage of economic development the three-wheeler gives way to the small utility four-wheeler. And that is probably what we see happening in India at one level. At another level the humble green cycle rickshaw is giving way in parts to the battery powered three-wheeler.

As many India's and Bharat's co-exist in our nation simultaneously we have a higher segment going away from the ICE three-wheelers while a much lower economic strata is moving into powered (this time by battery) three-wheelers. As for those who decry the three-wheeler as a third world rubbish or a third world embarrassment (screaming third world, anyone?) it may help to know that three wheelers as utility vehicles were quite common in Germany & Japan of the 1940s to 60s as those countries rebuilt their economy after WW2 and were a part of USA life earlier in the 1930s and 40s. In India too the three-wheeler played its role of motorizing a resource scarce economy and bringing motorized transportation to towns and villages which otherwise might not have had to make do with much less.


American Cushman Mailster active in 1940s and 1950s.


Daihatsu built in Japan 1957 to 1972. One of many Japanese designs produced from late 1940s to early 1970s.


German Goliath built 1955 to 1961. Again one of several German designs active from c.1948 to mid-1960s.

As each of these countries crossed a certain threshold of per capita availability of capital the three-wheeler went out of fashion. Three-wheelers are not a function of third world or first world. They are a function of buying power.

PS:15 posts in 11 days on a Hot Thread....you bet 3-wheelers are going out of fashion