According to a recent article in one of the nation's more respected dailies (see “
Process to procure 110 fighter jets begins” published in
The Hindu on 7 April 2018), the Ministry of Defence has initiated the formal process to buy 110 fighter jets for the Indian Air Force (IAF) through a global tendering process.
Why is this significant? Because the IAF is in desperate need of new fighters. The sanctioned strength of the IAF is 42 fighter squadrons, while its current strength is alarmingly low at 32 – so much for our preparedness to fight simultaneous wars on two fronts! By most estimates, if the present situation continues and older aircraft are phased out at the planned rate, the IAF could be left with just 19 fighter squadrons by 2027 (all 10 existing squadrons of old
MiG-21s and
MiG-27s are slated for retirement by 2022).
Why “Dogfight 3.0”? Because the IAF’s struggle to acquire new frontline fighters began over a decade ago with the Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (M-MRCA) competition in 2007, continued with the Single-Engine Fighter (SEF) programme in 2016, and has now resurfaced a third time with an initial tender or request for information (RFI) for the acquisition of 110 fighter jets in 2018:
Dogfight 1.0 – the M-MRCA competition
Number of aircraft: 126
Shortlisted aircraft: 6 (4 twin-engine and 2 single-engine fighters from 6 vendors)
Status: scrapped in 2015 after an extensive process that included elaborate field trials by the IAF
Rafale from Dassault Aviation
National origin: France
Introduction: 2001
Primary users: French Air Force, French Navy, Egyptian Air Force
Source: HIS Jane’s Defence Weekly Eurofighter Typhoon from Eurofighter Jagdflugzeug GmbH (a consortium of Airbus, BAE Systems and Leonardo)
National origin: Multinational
Introduction: 2003
Primary users: RAF, German Air Force, Italian Air Force, Spanish Air Force
Source: Eurofighter.com MiG-35 (advanced variant of MiG-29) from Russian Aircraft Corporation MiG (formerly, Mikoyan and Gurevich Design Bureau)
National origin: Russia
Introduction: 2018 (planned)
Primary users: Russian Air Force, Egyptian Air Force
Source: HIS Jane’s Defence Weekly F/A-18E/F Super Hornet from Boeing Defense, Space & Security (formerly, McDonnell Douglas)
National origin: United States
Introduction: 1999
Primary users: US Navy, Royal Australian Air Force
Source: HIS Jane’s Defence Weekly F-16 Fighting Falcon from Lockheed Martin (formerly, General Dynamics)
National origin: United States
Introduction: 1978
Primary users: US Air Force, NATO partners, and many others (including Pakistan)
Source: HIS Jane’s Defence Weekly JAS 39 Gripen from Saab
National origin: Sweden
Introduction: 1997
Primary users: Swedish Air Force, South African Air Force, Czech Air Force, Hungarian Air Force
Source: Saab.com
The Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (M-MRCA) competition was aimed at filling the gap between the
Tejas light combat aircraft and the Sukhoi
SU-30MKI air superiority fighter, and featured the six aircraft pictured above. On 27 April 2011, after an intensive and detailed technical evaluation by the IAF, the competition was reduced to two bidders: the
Eurofighter Typhoon and the Dassault
Rafale. On 31 January 2012, it was announced that the
Rafale had won the competition, largely due to its lower life-cycle cost. The deal however stalled due to disagreements over production in India and, on 30 July 2015, India officially withdrew the 126-aircraft M-MRCA tender. Around the same time, on 10 April 2015, Prime Minister Modi announced the purchase of 36 Rafale fighters in flyaway condition through an inter-governmental agreement with France. On 23 September 2016, Raksha Mantri Manohar Parrikar and his French counterpart signed a contract for the purchase of 36 off-the-shelf
Rafales in a deal worth €7.8 billion, with an option for 18 more at the same inflation-adjusted price. The first
Rafales are expected to be delivered by 2019, and all 36 jets are expected within six years. The IAF was keen on a follow-on order of 36 additional
Rafales, but the Indian government is yet to take a final decision on it.
Dogfight 2.0 – the SEF programme
Number of aircraft: 114
Shortlisted aircraft: 2 (2 single-engine fighters from 2 vendors)
Status: scrapped in February 2018 after questions were raised about the narrow competition
After the M-MRCA competition had gone into a tailspin, the government came up with an alternative acquisition plan. The Single-Engine Fighter (SEF) programme was proposed in the hope that it would be easier to procure and cheaper to build. Manufacturers in the United States, Russia and Sweden were approached to see if they were interested in partnering with an Indian company to build medium, single-engine fighters, accompanied by significant transfer-of-technology (ToT) to the Indian entity. Eventually, both the United States’ Boeing/Lockheed and Sweden’s SAAB offered to set up a production line in India, for their
F-16 and
Gripen offerings respectively. But flip-flops by both companies on ToT, and allegations of crony capitalism, eventually led to the scrapping of the SEF tender earlier this year.
Dogfight 3.0 – déja vu all over again!
Number of aircraft: 110
Shortlisted aircraft: to be decided; new variations of the M-MRCA aircraft can be expected to compete, participation of the Lockheed Martin
F-35 Lightning II would be an unexpected bonus.
Special conditions: joint production of aircraft, with 85% of the aircraft to be built in India in a partnership with a “strategic partner / Indian production agency”.
They say that past performance is not indicative of future results – if only that were true of the Government’s efforts in the present context! By most accounts it is unfortunately unlikely that there will be any immediate turnaround in the ongoing drop in the number of IAF fighters in service. Even in the most optimistic scenario it will be at least 4-5 years before the current process is complete, by which time the IAF’s fighter strength would have fallen further.
It doesn’t help that since 2003 there have been five versions of the Defence Procurement Policy (DPP 2003, 2006, 2011, 2013 and 2016), several changes to the offset clause, changes in the categories of procurement, and the introduction of the “Strategic Partnership” policy. With constant changes to (as also the introduction and withdrawal of) multiple RFPs, coupled with a convoluted decision-making process, it comes as no surprise that large-scale defence acquisition plans rarely come to fruition.
From an operational point of view, India needs fifth generation fighter jets, given that China has already inducted its fifth generation Chengdu
J-20 fighters and has plans in the offing to export its first batch of Shenyang
J-31 fighters (another 5th gen fighter whose likely first export customer is Pakistan).
J-20 from Chengdu Aerospace Corporation
National origin: China
Introduction: 2017
Primary users: People’s Liberation Army Air Force
Source: Wikipedia J-31 from Shenyang Aircraft Corporation
National origin: China
Introduction: 2018-19 (estimated)
Primary users: People’s Liberation Army Air Force, Pakistan Air Force (likely)
Source: Wikipedia
Even if the current procurement is approved by the Government of India and all milestones are met on time, actual delivery and induction will happen only after 5-8 years. Currently, the best available fighter jets on the market are 4th and 4.5 generation fighters. While manufacturers would provide upgrades and contract negotiations would determine the number of jets and add-ons the IAF gets, this would still be a sub-optimal acquisition in terms of both cost-efficiency and operational readiness. Even if the government had stuck to its initial plan of acquiring the SEFs, it may have been touted as a success story for ‘Make-in-India’ in defence… but would have done little to truly make us combat ready.
With elections due next year, little to no progress can be expected, and it will be left to the next government to take it forward. As mentioned earlier, even if the process is fast-tracked, it will take another 4-5 years before a contract is signed and the first jet won't join the IAF till about 2025. Will the IAF want to induct 4.5 gen fighters at that time, when India’s principal adversary China has already inducted its 5th generation
J-20 fighter?
Given the timeline, if the IAF were to look for a 5th generation fighter, India’s options would be restricted to Lockheed Martin’s single-engine
F-35 Lightning II and the Russian twin-engine Sukhoi
Su-57. But the former is unlikely to agree to production in India, and the latter is not a medium-sized fighter.
F-35 Lightning II from Lockheed Martin Aeronautics
National origin: United States
Introduction: 2015, 2016, 2018 (depending on variant)
Primary users: US Air Force, US Navy, US Marine Corps and several other countries
Source: Wikipedia Su-57 from JSC Sukhoi Company (formerly, Sukhoi Design Bureau)
National origin: Russia
Introduction: 2019 (planned)
Primary users: Russian Air Force, Russian Navy, IAF
Note: this is a picture of the
T-50 prototype of the
Su-57, on which the
FGFA/PMF is based
Source: Sukhoi.org
In any event, India’s Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) is already co-developing a Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft / Perspective Multi-role Fighter (
FGFA/PMF) with Sukhoi based on the
Su-57 platform (having said which, on 2 September 2017, the IAF cited demanding maintenance programmes and high maintenance costs as the main reasons behind its reluctance to continue with the project). To muddy the waters further, HAL is separately developing the HAL Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), a single-seat, twin-engine, stealth all-weather multirole fighter aircraft, with the first flight scheduled to take place in 2025. The less said about the efficacy of India’s indigenous fighter programme the better… but that is another story entirely!