[tharian]

To get expressways built took quite a long time, which is still in process.

Upgrading existing rail lines to high speed standards or building dedicated lines will take quite a long time.
In the meanwhile the railways can go work on fencing off lines and getting rid of Level crossings and thereby increasing the speeds on existing trains. The existing rolling stock can do much higher speeds than what they do at present (LHB rakes)

Having said that, congestion at railway stations is something that adds time. Between SBC-MAS, we have around 5-6 major stations which has speed restrictions to pass if the train does not have a stop there. Something similar to passing through a town by road that does not have a bypass.

Honestly, I would rather support increasing the speeds on existing trains by the following the above than introducing Bullet trains in India. That is like suicide from safety point.
In the last month , IR saw something like 4-5 accidents/derailments, thankfully not highspeed ones. Enough said.

[rrsteer]

Originally Posted by smartcat

Excellent financing deal (80% loan, 0.1% interest, 50 year tenure) offered by Japan makes the cost associated with this much more palatable. Next challenge for our PM would be to convince Shinzo Abe to offer Lexus cars at 0.1% interest / 20 year tenure

Can anyone make me understand what does the Japanese government/ economy gain by making this investment. Also will they get a share of revenues from the project?

[srishiva]

Originally Posted by rrsteer

Can anyone make me understand what does the Japanese government/ economy gain by making this investment. Also will they get a share of revenues from the project?

We pay most of the money back to Japanese companies ?

[SmartCat]

Originally Posted by rrsteer

Can anyone make me understand what does the Japanese government/ economy gain by making this investment. Also will they get a share of revenues from the project?

- Majority of investment will flow into the pockets of Japanese companies, stimulating growth and creating new jobs for Japs.

- Japan loses 0.9% per year if they invest their cash surplus in 5 year US treasury bond, because of low returns & exchange rate fluctuations. Basically, with this investment, Japan earns at net positive yield of 1% per year. Their economy is flush with liquidity because of Quantitative Easing. Looks like the Japanese are putting some of this liquidity to work via loans to India, provided we award projects to Japanese companies.

- If this project is successful, Japs are likely to get more high speed train projects in India.

- Since the investment is large, without offering such good terms, India would not have signed up. Also, Chinese high speed rail technology is cheaper than Japanese tech. Japanese companies have lost out to China many times in South East Asia because of cost factor.

- Japan & India want to upgrade their relationship to "strategic partnership" levels, thanks to China.

[Mafia]

Hard to believe this as a viable option at the price. The project needs are simply too high. The entire infrastructure has to be built from scratch bypassing any existing lines. I am not sure about the ecological impact of having an additional elevated line.

I don't even want to contemplate an accident at 300+kmph.

I am not sure we will see a return on investment in 50years. The business plan does not cater to a wide base of users.

I feel this is too much, too soon!

[Nav-i-gator]

Originally Posted by Mafia

Hard to believe this as a viable option at the price. The project needs are simply too high. The entire infrastructure has to be built from scratch bypassing any existing lines. I am not sure about the ecological impact of having an additional elevated line.

I don't even want to contemplate an accident at 300+kmph.

I am not sure we will see a return on investment in 50years. The business plan does not cater to a wide base of users.

I feel this is too much, too soon!

You never know unless you try. It's a start and depending on the success or failure, HSR would be either expanded in other parts of the country or would remain as a single line.


On a side note, it is difficult to understand such pessimism in Tbhp. We (teambhpians) often crib about Govt policies restricting bigger engines and bigger cars, we loathe lack of road infra, lack of infra for electric cars...and what not. And when a modern technology and a new mode of transportation is being tried out in India, we are all pessimistic.

Infrastructure projects are next to agriculture in providing jobs, more the projects, more the jobs, more the incomes and more will be the acceptance of the "costly" mode of transport. And more the acceptance for such transport modes, more would be the growth in manufacturing capacity as well as R&D. When something new is tried out, best outcomes are always the side-effects.

[Mission_PGPX]

Been there and done that. Having lived in Japan and traveled in shinkansen, i can guarantee the ride quality (T-bhp terms) and luxury associated with bullet trains. One question really bothers me, having looked at the stopovers almost 60 kms apart, i wonder how will train gain the speed of 300 + km/hr with 750 passengers on board? It might run on those speeds for couple of minutes before it has to let go of throttle. I am sure planners have thought of this but some how 2 hrs total journey between ahmedabad and mumbai with these many stops sounds really questionable.

and then security of the tracks in a country like us is different ball game altogether? The tracks has to be elevated throughout or underground.

[SourabhSuresh]

Originally Posted by Nav-i-gator

You never know unless you try. It's a start and depending on the success or failure, HSR would be either expanded in other parts of the country or would remain as a single line.


On a side note, it is difficult to understand such pessimism in Tbhp. We (teambhpians) often crib about Govt policies restricting bigger engines and bigger cars, we loathe lack of road infra, lack of infra for electric cars...and what not. And when a modern technology and a new mode of transportation is being tried out in India, we are all pessimistic.

Infrastructure projects are next to agriculture in providing jobs, more the projects, more the jobs, more the incomes and more will be the acceptance of the "costly" mode of transport. And more the acceptance for such transport modes, more would be the growth in manufacturing capacity as well as R&D. When something new is tried out, best outcomes are always the side-effects.

We should not look at this as a brand new toy in our back yard. We at Tbhp are very right to be apprehensive about it. Technology transfer is not always a guarantee, HSR goes through Eco — sensitive areas, below ground and benefits the urban middle and the upper class. The loans will be paid back by us through duties on fuels, and we are already feeling the heat on that front. Indirect taxes will be increased and unlike direct taxes will hurt everybody irrespective of their incomes. Though Japanese HSR'S are safe, acts of sabotage on this line can't be ruled out and at these speeds, it will be a disaster.
At the same time, moving forward and embracing new technology is never bad, jobs that will be created and the demand those wage earners will create will be substantial. Mumbai is the financial capital and any investment in its infrastructure will bear fruits.
Hope the policy-makers have weighed the pros and cons sufficiently before going through with it.

[benu9714]

: Japan doesn't give 50 years, 0.1% loan for roads

Just a word pf caution re 0.1% interest rate.

In the last 5 years JPY (Japanese Yen) interest rate has been maximum 0.7% p.a. for a 10 year loan, whereas the USD/JPY exchange rate has fluctuated between 124 and 99 in the last 2 years. Currently it is at 110. I have seen this rate at 79 as well as 276.

The point is : exchange rate fluctuation is the major risk here. If JPY appreciates against USD by 10%, it will appreciate against Rupee by more than 10%, and the effective cost of the loan, in Rupee terms, will be more than 10%.

Yes, one can get protection against exchange rate fluctuation, but that will cost more than 6-7% p.a., so that the effective cost of the loan will be 6-7% in Rupee terms.

[sharktale]

I am thinking that it is a step in the right direction. Maybe the first line would be developed with the help of Japan, and then Indian Railways would take over the other projects in the pipeline following the format of the first one.

I believe the govt is scooping a strategy to connect major cities, which are really far via the hyperloop, and connect the regional cities with faster track based trains.

Feasibility and cost based benefit are a serious concern, but let's hope the government comes in for a rude shock in the upcoming elections. They need a jolt to bring them back to their senses and ensure meticulous planning and execution.

[ksameer1234]

Originally Posted by Mafia

I am not sure we will see a return on investment in 50years. The business plan does not cater to a wide base of users.

The business plan actually caters to the kind of people who would be more than willing to pay the price. Same day return between Mumbai and Ahmedabad is not possible by train. One way flight between these two cities is never less than 3k and average price is 4-5k. Further, there are train passengers travelling for business who would have to stay overnight in the city, which can be avoided now. 3-4k one-way ticket should be a sweet-spot for fares.

[Nav-i-gator]

Originally Posted by SourabhSuresh

We should not look at this as a brand new toy in our back yard. We at Tbhp are very right to be apprehensive about it. Technology transfer is not always a guarantee, HSR goes through Eco — sensitive areas, below ground and benefits the urban middle and the upper class.

What makes us believe that any Govt project should "only" benefit poors and should not benefit Urban middle and upper class (Those who actually pay)? Not to mention, rate of urbanization as well as growth of middle class in India which are both quite high.

Originally Posted by SourabhSuresh

The loans will be paid back by us through duties on fuels, and we are already feeling the heat on that front. Indirect taxes will be increased and unlike direct taxes will hurt everybody irrespective of their incomes. Though Japanese HSR'S are safe, acts of sabotage on this line can't be ruled out and at these speeds, it will be a disaster.

That's gross exaggeration. Loan terms are extremely favorable, we are practically getting assets generated, jobs created and tech learnt with 50 years to pay the money back at a nominal 0.1% extra cost spread over 50 years. On running basis, the HSR would actually save a lot of fuel (and fuel bill). The issues and potential problems that you wrote are general, not specific to this project. Let's be optimistic on this. I am always optimistic when I see tech adoption, as it paves way for huge gains to be had in future.

[sushantr5]

I am living in Germany and have covered more than 30000 kms in bullet train. And I am happy to see that Bullet Train is happening in India. However I do not like look of Japanese Shinkasens compared to Germany's ICE.

Bullet train brings lot of dynamics in economy which I see here in Germany. Human Resource becomes flexible according to Business needs due to convenience in travel. Here in Germany travelling for work is important part, People travel from North of Germany to South for work and go back on weekends. Businesses get more space to breath and expand and spread along the route of Bullet Train. Instead of limiting to one city, multicity model comes into existence and businesses expand with ease.

Economic activity brings more jobs and then more travelers. Even if flight connectivity is there between cities, Train gets preference due to convenience and flexibility.

Though the initial investment in this is looking really huge but payoff period is really big. Economy will improve considerably within few years and it will start to generate profit. I am sure more routes will start coming up in near future and I am sure by 2030 India will be connected by Bullet Trains extensively. Bullet train will serve as one the wheel of growth vehicle.

Though generally leisure travelers do not prefer Bullet Trains due to cost, here in Germany as well. Same will happen in India. On the bullet train track, High Speed Train will run as well as Semi High Speed. This is how infrastructure will be utilized completely. Water flows through river and money travels by rail.

[Jaggu]

I am completely for better and faster public transport system, but question arises as to the reasoning? Like many mentioned, usually such connectivity options are made to enable regular commute from cities and towns to central of business districts where employment is concentrated. Has someone done comprehensive study on how the man power dynamics is and whether the current plan will help improve ground situations?

In a developing country like India where our mass rail systems are way below par compared to developed countries, i would have preferred such investments and collaboration to happen there (normal rail) first instead of this leap frog mentality. While this bullet train sounds very positive and ambitious on paper, i always feel the billion plus populations would benefit better with more widespread infrastructure projects, which the bullet train is not.

[anjan_c2007]

Yes, we must upgrade technologically in every possible sphere. Introducing the bullet train is a good step by the government, but it throws up several points for a debate.

There are several nagging questions that are left unanswered. We are making four and six lane highways in numerous sectors. Also we talk of cement roads as a durable replacement for the present asphalt roads. In fact, with the new government, cement roads are being preferred in many sectors.

Back to the Bullet train and cement roads and the four/six lane highways. We need all these upgradations no doubt. But what about the existing infrastructure ? Are we taking enough measures to maintain them and make them safer and more user friendly ? No, is the answer. Given the track record of rail and road safety and the horrifying statistics of casualties and loss of property, we need to take adequate measures to maintain what we have and make the existing infrastructure safe and user friendly. We need to pump in sufficient funds and do adequate R & D, compliant with our indigenous conditions (foreign technological help will be of limited use here) for maintenance and for making the presently available infrastructure safe and user friendly.

I read an amusing and meaningful tweet dated 13/09/2017 during the pounding of Mumbai with the 103.2 mm rains in four hours from someone, which said:

"Mumbai needs bullet drains, not bullet trains !"