[fhdowntheline]

Originally Posted by Reinhard

And hounded out so well, that he and his creation itself are pretty much forgotten altogether! There is a well maintained Marut on display in a museum in Germany but majority Indian citizens think Tejas is the first Indigenous fighter! India managed to get the services of the designers of one of the best propeller fighters ever made - the FW190, and then made a big hash of it.

There is a Marut in the Kamala Nehru Park in Deccan area of Pune.

[fhdowntheline]

Originally Posted by Alfresco

Not an expert, just my 2 paise
I feel that civilian research and engineering skills provide a large pool of talent and also creates demand for tech spinoff into related sectors.
The Soviets did not have a civilian side and the whole structure was geared towards the military.
Same thing happened with China. It started making great strides only after the country opened up and a civilian side demand was created. Their skills took a jump and the economy boomed, giving them the financial and human resources to improve their products.
I feel that the govt impetus to aircraft MRO shall be the game changer in the long run and create a pool of skilled workers that the private sector can use to take up contract manufacturing and maintenance from HAL.

It will require multiple layers across the Indian state to engage civil population like this. I really dont see a proper vision and policy for India's strategic affairs. Merely engaging with US/China/Russia is not strategy. That comprehensive 10 year, 20 year vision and mission must translate into tangible objectives for India's defence/offence assets. First of all, one must remove the term "Defence" from India's strategic lexicon. There should be no "Defence" Ministry. It should be Ministry of "Military Services" or something equivalent. This 'defence' word itself limits India's vision and thinking.

[dragracer567]

So now the CDS has said that the MRCA tender has been canceled and the Tejas Mark 1A will take its place.

https://theprint.in/defence/iaf-to-b...t-says/421827/

But I have a few questions:

1) Weren't the order for 83 Tejas Mark 1A placed long back? So, why is being brought back now as the replacement of the MRCA fighter? Weren't we supposed to get both?

2) Does that mean more Rafales will never be bought? Seems like Deja vu from the Mirage 2000 era. Since we already operate 36, why not buy more since operational costs will be lower?

3) Are 83 relatively new, small and untested Tejas Mark 1A enough to replace the requirement for 114 cutting edge fighters like Rafales, Eurofighter typhoons or Super hornets which has much more tech and firepower? We need the Tejas but isn't it a completely different type of aircraft?

4) There were some talks of more Su-30 MKIs being bought to replace some of the Jaguars which weren't upgraded. Will that ever happen? Also, aren't the MKIs already due for an upgrade now with AESA radars, better BVR missiles etc? (Super Sukhois as they were called).

5) Where does this leave the Navy, will they also have to forego the 57 fighters and buy Tejas instead?

PS if the FDI rule had been changed 10 years back, we would have had 126 Rafales by now with maybe 60 more potentially on order.

[himanshugoswami]

Originally Posted by dragracer567

So now the CDS has said that the MRCA tender has been canceled and the Tejas Mark 1A will take its place.

https://theprint.in/defence/iaf-to-b...t-says/421827/

But I have a few questions:

1) Weren't the order for 83 Tejas Mark 1A placed long back? So, why is being brought back now as the replacement of the MRCA fighter? Weren't we supposed to get both?

2) Does that mean more Rafales will never be bought? Seems like Deja vu from the Mirage 2000 era. Since we already operate 36, why not buy more since operational costs will be lower?

3) Are 83 relatively new, small and untested Tejas Mark 1A enough to replace the requirement for 114 cutting edge fighters like Rafales, Eurofighter typhoons or Super hornets which has much more tech and firepower? We need the Tejas but isn't it a completely different type of aircraft?

4) There were some talks of more Su-30 MKIs being bought to replace some of the Jaguars which weren't upgraded. Will that ever happen? Also, aren't the MKIs already due for an upgrade now with AESA radars, better BVR missiles etc? (Super Sukhois as they were called).

5) Where does this leave the Navy, will they also have to forego the 57 fighters and buy Tejas instead?

PS if the FDI rule had been changed 10 years back, we would have had 126 Rafales by now with maybe 60 more potentially on order.

From what I understand, the MMRCA 2.0 was focusing on single engine fighters like Grippen and F16 (21). IAF wanted more Rafales.

So what the GOI is doing is to cancel the MMRCA and get IAF to procure LCA in numbers. This is good PROVIDED, the GOI lights a fire under the backside of HAL to ensure consistent production numbers and top notch QC. else we are looking at a disaster.

As re the Rafales, the moment GOI did a G2G deal for the first tranche of 36, it was clear that the Rafales will not be procured through the tender route. So cancelling of MMRCA will not impact the Rafale procurement. Unless India runs out of money in the next three years (unlikely!) you will see the order placed for the second tranche of 36 F3R standard Rafales with an AESA in 2022. By then delivery of the first tranche will be complete.

[DrPriyankT]

Originally Posted by dragracer567

So now the CDS has said that the MRCA tender has been canceled and the Tejas Mark 1A will take its place.

https://theprint.in/defence/iaf-to-b...t-says/421827/

But I have a few questions:

1) Weren't the order for 83 Tejas Mark 1A placed long back? So, why is being brought back now as the replacement of the MRCA fighter? Weren't we supposed to get both?

2) Does that mean more Rafales will never be bought? Seems like Deja vu from the Mirage 2000 era. Since we already operate 36, why not buy more since operational costs will be lower?

3) Are 83 relatively new, small and untested Tejas Mark 1A enough to replace the requirement for 114 cutting edge fighters like Rafales, Eurofighter typhoons or Super hornets which has much more tech and firepower? We need the Tejas but isn't it a completely different type of aircraft?

4) There were some talks of more Su-30 MKIs being bought to replace some of the Jaguars which weren't upgraded. Will that ever happen? Also, aren't the MKIs already due for an upgrade now with AESA radars, better BVR missiles etc? (Super Sukhois as they were called).

5) Where does this leave the Navy, will they also have to forego the 57 fighters and buy Tejas instead?

PS if the FDI rule had been changed 10 years back, we would have had 126 Rafales by now with maybe 60 more potentially on order.

Sir, please don't fall for clickbait articles. The MMRCA and Tejas are entirely different projects. Yes, MMRCA will be delayed, but definitely won't be cancelled. The objectives of MMRCA and light fighters are different. In BHPian terms, the Tejas will be a cheap and cheerful small hatchback you have in your garage for your day to day work. The Tejas will be primarily a point defence plane and be intended for close attack support. The MMRCA will be like the bigger car intended for outstation trips and for those big airport runs. In the IAF scheme of things, the MMRCA will be meant for bigger ground strikes in contested airspace and as a compliment to the Su-30MKI for long range interception.

The first 40 Tejas's are of basic configuration (basic still means, they can have BVRAAM engagements, PGM bombing and traditional dogfights). The 83 MK1A birds will have AESA radars, better endurance and a installed self protection jammer and better EW capability, enabling them to fight independently in contested airspace.

Due to fiscal issues, MMRCA will be delayed by a year, but not definitely cancelled. The Tejas will be a tool for the IAF to replace the Mig-21 and will help to keep the fires burning at HAL for domestic environment, in the Atmanirbhar Bharat scheme of thinhs currently till the AMCA takes over. MMRCA and AMCA in the long term are meant to replace our Mig-29's, Jaguars and Mirage-2000's. The navy will have to select either the Rafale or the SH or more Mig-29K's as the single engined tejas cannot take off with a respectable combat load of our STOBAR carriers.

Another thing is, IAF has heavy outgoing expenditure till 2023 for the Tejas Deal (both MK1 and Mk1A), the 36 Rafale's, airbase modernization, S-400 procurement and chopper procurements. Beyond that, we don't have many IAF capital expenditures lined up, freeing money for the MMRCA purchase, new AWACS cum tanker purchases. The only wildcards here are purchase of 21 refurbished Mig-29's from Russia and purchase of a further squadron's worth of Su-30 MKI's

And Goswami sir, how to light a fire under HAL?? That's something successive governments have npot been able to do!

[himanshugoswami]

DISCLAIMER- This is not based on any concrete information but is just my hunch based on my limited knowledge of geopolitics and defence.

Dassault has been the darling of IAF. Their products are truly world class and probably the best fighter jets of their time, be it the M2k or now the Rafale. the fact is no other jets in the world pack such a formidable punch in one platform as the Dassault jets do.

Now, the current market cap of Dassault Aviation (not the entire Dassault group) is $6.8 B, with sales of $8.3B (Source: https://www.forbes.com/companies/das.../#6b6f2762d236)

Now compare this with India's acquisition cost of 36 Rafales which was Euro 7.8 B which is approx. $8.5B . India will acquire additional Rafales at approx. 40 percent lesser cost since the initial cost included infrastructure cost.

EU is in dire financial stress which started with Brexit and Covid has made it reach tipping point. the middle east is the only other market for Dassault group (UAE, Qatar and Egypt). If you follow geo politics, you will notice that the ME is on the verge of a meltdown, if not a downright implosion. That being the case, it is highly unlikely that Dassault Aviation will see any significant business emanating from the ME in the next decade. So India is its only hope along with the French Air Force. The French Air Force is already on record to use shared resources with the Germans, Spanish and the Brits for their future aerial platforms. (the Tempest programme with UK and the NGWS with Germany and Spain) you may want to read this: https://www.defensenews.com/digital-...-fighter-jets/


So where does this leave Dassault Aviation? Simply put, Dassault aviation will struggle to remain afloat as an independent entity. Enter India- If we play our cards right, and the private sector is willing to be audacious, I see a real possibility of an Indian company buying out Dassault aviation in the next decade.

Mahindra and Tata are already in the aerospace industry and will look to increase their footprint. With GOI stating that they want to stop foreign arms buys, the focus will be on Indian owned companies. Realistically, we will take at least two decades of sustained effort to reach where Dassault Aviation is today in terms of capability. The Rafale is truly a state of the art fighter, and the bitter truth is, we do not have the military industrial complex to build it today. But, instead of spending $6 B to but 36 more jets, it makes more sense to spend an additional $3B to buy the whole company itself. Infact, one just needs to acquire a 51 percent stake, not buy the entire shareholding anyways. All that the private player will need is commitment from GOI for orders. the MRO will take care of itself.

If there are any laws in France that prevent such a takeover, then the GOI will need to work with the French govt to resolve that. I see the current relaxation of FDI in defence to 74% as a step in that direction. Dassault may be invited to set up a subsidiary in India, which will then be bought out by its Indian partner, who in turn will then acquire a majority stake in Dassault aviation. They may do a share swap deal to accomplish this.

Like I said, this is just my gut feel. Lets see how this pans out.

[himanshugoswami]

Originally Posted by DrPriyankT

And Goswami sir, how to light a fire under HAL?? That's something successive governments have npot been able to do!

Dr Sahab, I'm just a simple lawyer, not a magician, or a highly evolved yogi, to have the wherewithal to answer that question!!

[SPARKled]

MMRCA circus is now effectively over. The govt simply has no money. As I had predicted before mwf is our next MMRCA and followed by the AMCA. There would just be some more govt to govt Rafale purchases once the current deal of 36 is over or near completion. No American or any other Euro jet will fly in IAF colour unless we see some silver bullet F35 fighters later on when our financial condition improves, for the IAF or Navy. Everything else is pure speculation at this point of time. Just my 2 paisa worth of analysis.

[DrPriyankT]

Originally Posted by himanshugoswami

DISCLAIMER- This is not based on any concrete information but is just my hunch based on my limited knowledge of geopolitics and defence.

Dassault has been the darling of IAF. Their products are truly world class and probably the best fighter jets of their time, be it the M2k or now the Rafale. the fact is no other jets in the world pack such a formidable punch in one platform as the Dassault jets do.

Now, the current market cap of Dassault Aviation (not the entire Dassault group) is $6.8 B, with sales of $8.3B (Source: https://www.forbes.com/companies/das.../#6b6f2762d236)

Now compare this with India's acquisition cost of 36 Rafales which was Euro 7.8 B which is approx. $8.5B . India will acquire additional Rafales at approx. 40 percent lesser cost since the initial cost included infrastructure cost.

EU is in dire financial stress which started with Brexit and Covid has made it reach tipping point. the middle east is the only other market for Dassault group (UAE, Qatar and Egypt). If you follow geo politics, you will notice that the ME is on the verge of a meltdown, if not a downright implosion. That being the case, it is highly unlikely that Dassault Aviation will see any significant business emanating from the ME in the next decade. So India is its only hope along with the French Air Force. The French Air Force is already on record to use shared resources with the Germans, Spanish and the Brits for their future aerial platforms. (the Tempest programme with UK and the NGWS with Germany and Spain) you may want to read this: https://www.defensenews.com/digital-...-fighter-jets/


So where does this leave Dassault Aviation? Simply put, Dassault aviation will struggle to remain afloat as an independent entity. Enter India- If we play our cards right, and the private sector is willing to be audacious, I see a real possibility of an Indian company buying out Dassault aviation in the next decade.

Mahindra and Tata are already in the aerospace industry and will look to increase their footprint. With GOI stating that they want to stop foreign arms buys, the focus will be on Indian owned companies. Realistically, we will take at least two decades of sustained effort to reach where Dassault Aviation is today in terms of capability. The Rafale is truly a state of the art fighter, and the bitter truth is, we do not have the military industrial complex to build it today. But, instead of spending $6 B to but 36 more jets, it makes more sense to spend an additional $3B to buy the whole company itself. Infact, one just needs to acquire a 51 percent stake, not buy the entire shareholding anyways. All that the private player will need is commitment from GOI for orders. the MRO will take care of itself.

If there are any laws in France that prevent such a takeover, then the GOI will need to work with the French govt to resolve that. I see the current relaxation of FDI in defence to 74% as a step in that direction. Dassault may be invited to set up a subsidiary in India, which will then be bought out by its Indian partner, who in turn will then acquire a majority stake in Dassault aviation. They may do a share swap deal to accomplish this.

Like I said, this is just my gut feel. Lets see how this pans out.

We can think of a similar approach to purchase Embraer, whose enterprise value has plummeted by 80% following the collapse of the Boeing deal in the post covid world. We need lots of small civil airliners in the medium term for our regional aviation and Embraer has a mastery at producing them. Similarly their KC-390 medium weight transport jet can be an asset for the IAF. We missed the bus when purchasing the troubled regional jet division of Bombardier, which was purchased by Mitsubishi.

However its highly unlikely that majority stakes of these companies would be acquired by foreign entities, given the strategic importance of these companies in their respective nations. Its like India selling of HAL to Boeing or Airbus.

But who knows how diplomacy will work if we make up our mind to aquire.

[ads11]

[quote=DrPriyankT;4806225
However its highly unlikely that majority stakes of these companies would be acquired by foreign entities, given the strategic importance of these companies in their respective nations. Its like India selling of HAL to Boeing or Airbus.
[/QUOTE]

I was going to say, as ambitious a plan as that might be, there is no chance that a strategic capability like that gets bought out! Especially a defence sector critical one. I'm not going to say it's not an ambitious plan but the thing is what happens when we buy the company? You have to realise all the brain bank, the engineers, the factory floor workers who know how to build it, the facilities for those are all still in the original country, France for Dassault and Brazil for Embraer! Us owning it doesn't mean automatically that we can ship the lot of those to the subcontinent. I don't see there being a majority interest in a French company from an outside buyer. Take the keen interest the French govt through it's Renault stake has been taking in the unfolding events of the Renault-Nissan Alliance. That's for a large employer sure like Renault so obviously the govt will do everything it can to preserve those jobs. Imagine if the jobs for Dassault were similarly under threat, there'd be widespread outcry!

Ultimately the only chance we have is to have Dassault set up an Indian subsidiary and for them to license build here. In the hope that over time it helps stimulate the natural growth of a skill base in India. I'd find it particularly alarming at a time when nationalism across the old continent is on the rise that this kinda idea would even have a whisper of a chance of succeeding unfortunately.

Besides the French like the Japanese are happy paying over the odds if it keeps the capability in country. I don't think purely market forces will precipitate such a drastic move. What I will say you're on the right track for is perhaps making a long term gambit of aligning our defence production through Indian PSU and private sector partnerships with the French. If we have the largesse, we might as well use it cleverly.

Embraer is also a good option (though I feel Boeing might revisit that down the line). I'm not sure how Modi's relations are with Bolsonaro but maybe there's an opportunity there for two leaders who fancy themselves as robust men on the international stage can make something happen. Though there's far more on either's plate to contend with for the foreseeable future..

The KC-390 is promising but that programme just clashes with our C-130 in that medium lift category. India went for the proven platform available now. What the KC-390 Has the potential of being is a workhorse lifter for South America but it's stuck in a similar manner of purgatory the Airbus A400M finds itself in

[DrPriyankT]

Lots of ifs and buts in taking over a foreign strategic company by an Indian company, but Embraer is a company where we atleast have a strategic partnership as the civil aircraft made by them help our domestic aviation sector. They are not as deep into the defence sector like Dasault, especially Rafale is a nuclear delivery vehicle with the ASMP missile.

But yes for India to accelerate in advanced technology, we need a strategic foreign partnership.


P.S : Defence blogs on social media today are abuzz with news of the Brazilian Ambassador to India welcoming a partnership with Indian firms in the field of aerospace.
And a 2 cent idea from my end is, our military/paramilitary can use the superlative Embraer Tucano counterinsurgency ajrcraft as a low cost platform for our low intensity conflicts in Kashmir and in the red corridor . It mounts a lot of low cost precision guided munitions to minimize collateral damage while keeping out our men out of harms way. Comments are most welcome for this idea of mine.

[V.Narayan]

Originally Posted by DrPriyankT

And a 2 cent idea from my end is, our military/paramilitary can use the superlative Embraer Tucano counterinsurgency ajrcraft as a low cost platform for our low intensity conflicts in Kashmir and in the red corridor . It mounts a lot of low cost precision guided munitions to minimize collateral damage while keeping out our men out of harms way. Comments are most welcome for this idea of mine.

Theoretically yes. But politically it is a no no to be using air power against your own citizens.

[Sutripta]

^^^(DrPT)
Use UAVs to monitor.
Beyond that I really wouldn't want to drop munitions in our own territory on our own citizens, no matter what they are branded.

Sutripta

[DrPriyankT]

I agree they are our own citizens in many cases(Kashmir however has many from across the border too) , but without getting into politics, I mooted this idea, as it personally saddens me to see many of our braves being killed in operations to neutralize terrorists, hence i felt, why risk our men when a small 100 pound guided weapon can eliminate a terrorist. My idea of using COIN aircraft was based on this article I read on Wikipedia where I was surprised to read IAF strafed a few MNF insurgents way back in 1966.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marc...Front_uprising

[SPARKled]

@DrPriyankT : Only a rogue country like Pakistan will use its AF against its own people in its own territory as it did in its northern Frontier. We can do it too with what we have like Jaguars and helicopter gunships but we are not Pakistan and will never do it.