Movers & Shakers
April - the first month of the new financial year - usually sees a dip in volume, because there is a flurry of activity in March from depreciation-seeking businessmen & companies. Still, 2.14 lakh dispatches is pretty good. Just look at last April and you'll see a near 20% year-on-year (YOY) jump. Things have definitely improved compared to 2014 which was an especially weak year. In terms of manufacturers, about half of them have recorded YOY growth (the ones that haven't are plain complacent).
There is no doubt that the big guys are getting increasingly aggressive with time. Collectively, the top 3 manufacturers control almost 75% of the market. The top 6 car makers (from Maruti to Tata) have a whopping 90% of the market between themselves. The remaining 9 brands (including global majors like GM, Ford, VW, Renault-Nissan) have to fight it out for the crumbs. Despite all their money, talent & products, 8 manufacturers have less than 2% market-share! I can tell you these underperformers are biting their fingernails when they're headed to global headquarters for annual presentations & reviews.
Going forward, Auto CEOs are a bit cautious, as the rural outlook isn't bright. 2-wheeler sales are the best indicator of the rural market, and they've been nothing to write home about in April.
Maruti gains a whopping 22,000 sales YOY - it has actually increased its market-share to 47% of the passenger car market. What's interesting is that, a majority of that growth has NOT come from the Alto which hasn't been able to sustain the mid-20 thousand levels (again, an indicator of poor rural sentiment). The Swift & Dzire continue their menacing hold over the market, and their sales are within an arms length of the far cheaper Alto. The old faithful WagonR closes the month with nearly 14,000 sales, while the petrol-only Omni & Eeco bring in a combined 12,000 (better YOY demand from commercial operators). On the other hand, the Ertiga has its lowest sales since Sept '13, albeit I think it's because of the upcoming facelift (production shift-over and customers waiting for the newer version). 7 months since launch and the Ciaz is doing rather well for itself. This is Maruti's first big sedan to taste success; it's holding on to the no. 2 spot in the C2 segment. Other than the AMT, the Celerio has nothing to make it stand out from the crowd. It's a conservative
neither-here-nor-there car. Keeping that in mind, 5,300 sales is respectable. The Alto AMT doesn't appear to have affected its sales too much. Don't forget, the Celerio diesel begins its dispatches this month. I'll be keenly watching the performance of Maruti's cheapest diesel car, and the only one without a Fiat diesel engine. A BHPian got his hands on one -
related post.
Buoyed by a fresh product range, Hyundai consistently sells between 37,000 - 39,000 cars / month now. It won't take much longer for the Koreans to cross the 40k mark. YOY growth comes in at 18%. Hyundai's most expensive hatchback is also its best selling product in India. Says a lot about the sheer competence of the Elite i20, and how engineers got the product absolutely spot-on. Over 12,000 sales for the 2nd month in a row surpasses Hyundai's own predictions! The Grand i10 delivers its usual 8,000 odd tally, while the Eon & old i10 chug along at 6k & 3k respectively. The Xcent sees its best numbers in 8 months, outselling the Honda Amaze, but 4,700 dispatches isn't impressive for a well-priced compact sedan backed by Hyundai's powerful marketing machinery. The Elantra witnesses a bump up in volumes due to a push of the 2015 updated version (Team-BHP report will be up soon). If we consider the last 12 months' sales, it's obvious that the Elantra has lost customers to the popular new Corolla. The Verna has gotten old. Its sales average of 2,336 / month (for the last 6 months) is a far cry from the 4,500 - 5,500 units it used to once manage easily. Product freshness is crucial in the C2 segment, and buyers see the Verna as long in the tooth (facelift notwithstanding). The Santa Fe is another weak performer. This SUV is one of my favourites, but it's not easy to make an Indian customer pay 35 big ones for the slanted-H badge.
Mahindra & Honda keep fighting over the final podium position. Mahindra takes it back in April, and by a big margin! That said, I doubt anyone is celebrating over at Mahindra headquarters. The company is facing two major threats: a weak rural market (where it derives a lot of its UV sales), and competition from the new breed of monocoque MPVs (Ertiga, Lodgy etc.) & SUVs (Duster, EcoSport etc.). Where Maruti & Hyundai have recorded a nearly 20% increase in YOY sales, Mahindra's numbers are identical. No growth, in a market that has gone up in size. The best-selling Bolero is flat year on year (9k is still admirable for such an old UV). The Scorpio remains a reliable performer, winning 4,700 customers in April. The XUV500 facelift couldn't be coming anytime too soon (
scoop pictures). Mahindra desperately needs it to make the XUV500 a consistent 3,000+ / month product again. Other than these 3 cars, Mahindra's portfolio only has failures....and there are 5 of them (Verito, Vibe, Quanto, Xylo & Rexton)! Mahindra realises that its over-dependence on two old vehicles (Bolero, Scorpio) is risky. Expect a minimum of 2 new UVs (including the compact S101) to be launched soon.
Not a good month for Honda. The Japanese company logs its lowest month in a year; clearly, Honda was stuffing dealer channels recently and it was time for some inventory clipping. YOY growth is merely 1,600 cars, and the MOM dip is a massive 10,000 cars. It's hard to put a finger on Honda's wild sales fluctuations. The City is the star performer, ending April with 8,200 dispatches. The Amaze goes through a steep decline to merely 2,862 units! April was its worst month in history. You'll see a lot of Amaze ads around, so clearly dealers are sitting on inventory pileup, which they want out the door before taking in new cars from the factory. Can't Honda ever plan its production in line with actual demand? Another one to see its worst sales ever, is the overpriced Mobilio. I insist this MPV had no right to be priced at such a premium over the Ertiga. 689 shipments means the Mobilio is now on ventilator support. The Brio remains the flop it always was. Not only customers, Honda itself gives the Brio a cold shoulder. Despite its new strategy of focussing on the sub-10 lakh segment, Honda must be feeling a sense of déjà vu... just like it was for the last decade, the City is the only car bringing in significant volumes. Period.
Toyota adds nearly 5k units YOY, but that's because it was just recovering from a lockout in April 2014. It's business as usual = 12,000 dispatches is about the average we've seen from the big T in the last 12 months. There is no stopping the Innova & Fortuner which rake in the moolah like no expensive UVs do. The Fortuner now costs between 25 - 33 lakhs on the road. 1,600 units? Wow. The new Corolla is no. 1 in the D1 segment by a mile, selling more than double of its closest rival. Some correction is being seen though, as it's the 2nd time in 3 months that sales have been in the 700 range. Not much to talk about with the Etios & Liva. They'll remain the laggards they are until the next-generation cars replace them. The Camry facelift has been launched and this time with better features & safety kit. Most likely, it'll settle down to the 60 - 70 average we saw last year. The Land Cruiser 200's price has inexplicably climbed to 1.5 crores on-road! People sure are buying a lot of them recently, I see 24 dispatches in March and another 13 in April. We've never seen these kind of numbers for the Land Cruiser. Perhaps, a hotel order under the EPCG scheme?
As our official reviews indicate, the Tata Zest & Bolt are a step in the right direction. Ever since the Zest was launched, Tata's numbers have been in the 5 digits. YOY, Tata sees a 38% increase in sales. That said, it's clearly not enough and no one should be expecting any miracles overnight. The journey to rebuilding Tata Motors will be long & arduous. Tata has a wide range of 9 products which cumulatively bring in 10,200 sales. Viewed independently, it's a different story, especially if you remember that the Indica + Vista sisters used to sell 10,000 a month (alone) at one time! The Zest has slipped below the 2,000 mark and sustaining the earlier 3k level doesn't look likely. The Bolt falls to a shocking 600 units, a victim of its over-optimistic pricing (
where is the Mayank Pareek magic?). If that continues, it's going to be branded as a flop in <6 months of launch. With the inconsistent quality, reliability & dealer network, Tata cut the branch it was sitting on. Once your brand name is damaged in India, a recovery is painful, if at all possible. Even though its products have improved, the brand simply doesn't make it to the consideration list of shoppers. Get this, the old Indigo + Manza outsell the new Zest, while the old Indica + Vista outsell the new Bolt! The Safari & Nano, both, see a further drop from their already weak sales, due to facelifts rolling out. Aria is going from dud to D-U-D.
At position no.7 is Ford. Whenever I see their numbers, the term 'missed opportunity' rings in my head. YOY, the American giant lost 1,600 sales. Damn, if you can't sell more than 3,973 EcoSports in a month, there is seriously something wrong with you. If this superb compact SUV had the backing of a Maruti or Hyundai, our roads would be seeing over 10,000 new EcoSports each month... effortlessly. Forget growing year on year, the EcoSport actually lost 40 sales. Every other Ford is a flop. As has been the case all through its Indian stint, Ford can only sell one product at a time (first the Escort, then the Ikon, Fiesta, Figo & now EcoSport). I shudder to think what'll happen to the compact SUV once the Figo Aspire is introduced.
Renault has increased its YOY sales by 20%. Reason is the Lodgy which starts off with 2,000 dispatches to dealers (this includes display cars). The Duster goes through a curious fall to 1,707 units (from its usual 3k level). Can't think of anything else, but the production line being altered for the Lodgy. Next month will provide a clearer picture. Hopefully, the Lodgy takes the
one-trick-pony stamp away from the French automaker. Each & every one of its other products is a fail. Just wondering why they bother making the Scala, when it can't even sell in the 3 digits.
VW increases its sales by 500 units YOY. I'm surprised at how they're able to keep the Polo above the 2,000 point, although it's a far cry from the 2,900 average managed in Q4 of 2014. Vento sales fell below the psychological 4-digit number for 5 months of 2014, and I have no doubt we'll see a repeat this year too. Both these products are too long in the tooth, no matter how timeless their styling may be. With lack of significant investments coming in from VW Germany, the short to mid-term future isn't bright. The Jetta walks along, unable to battle with the (resurgent) Octavia, Elantra & Corolla.
How do you go from a weak position to a weaker one? Just ask Chevrolet. But WAIT! You'll have to wake them up first
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. YOY, the Americans lose 35% in volume! After spending 20 years on Indian soil, and with 8 cars on sale, is this the best you can do? Each GM car in India is a failure. I'm just wondering how its dealerships manage to survive. GM India isn't making money either. It's one loss-making year after another.
Datsun outsells Nissan! The GO+ is seeing a consistent rise in sales, with April's 1,563 tally being its best ever. Who would've thought?! Additionally, the GO hatchback crosses 1,000 units for the first time in 6 months. It's still a flop, but interesting to see some renewed interest around the cheap hatchback. At Nissan, life must be simple. Slap your badge onto a Renault / Dacia and sell it as your own product (the Terrano). You'll get nearly 1,100 customers ready at the showroom. What about their own cars, the Micra, Sunny & Evalia? Time to RIP. Yes, I really mean it.
1.5 years after the Octavia's launch, Skoda finally decides to start supplying them to the market in adequate numbers. 300 is a nice number, the Octavia has never seen this, other than the time right after its introduction. The car is competent, so just as well. The Rapid suffers a fate similar to the Vento. In the D2 segment, there are only two cars left: The Superb & the Camry. A long 6 years since launch and the Superb still gets over a 100 customers each month, outselling the fresher Camry.
Fiat & HM-Mitsubishi? The former should stick with selling engines only, since it's clear that they haven't got a clue of how to move cars. I'm pleasantly surprised that the latter is able to sell over 200 expensive Mitsubishi Pajeros each month. The SUV must have a loyal following! It doesn't have a parent in India as such, yet outsells the likes of the Santa Fe, Rexton & Captiva. Heck, the Pajero Sport sells more than Maruti's Grand Vitara ever did.